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Colorado (0-1 SU and ATS) at Toledo (0-1 SU and ATS)
Two teams coming off ugly losses try to rebound tonight when the Buffaloes travel to Toledo to take on the Rockets at the Glass Bowl.
Colorado fell 23-17 at home Sunday night to rival Colorado State, losing outright as a 10½-point home favorite. The lackluster Buffs offense from 2008 returned for the 2009 opener, gaining just 251 yards against the Rams, 67 less than their average from a year ago when Colorado ranked 95th nationally in total offense. QB Cody Hawkins threw for 222 yards with a TD and an INT, but he was sacked four times.
Toledo went to Purdue on Saturday and got caught up in a shootout with the Boilermakers, eventually falling 52-31 as a 10-point underdog. QB Aaron Opelt tossed it all over the field for 423 yards, three TDs and an INT, but the Rockets’ run defense was horrendous, giving up 315 yards on 39 carries (8.1 ypc average).
Colorado has lost four straight non-conference road games by an average of 15 points per game and is just 2-8 SU and ATS in its last 10 contests dating to last season. The Buffs are also 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games. Toledo is now just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 September games, but the Rockets are on positive ATS runs of 27-13 at home, 8-3 as a home underdog – including seven outright upsets – and 4-1 after a SU loss.
The Buffaloes have topped the total in eight of their last 11 games as a favorite and 10 of 13 on Friday, but otherwise they are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 11-3 in non-conference action, 5-1 in September and 5-1 on artificial turf. Meanwhile, Toledo is on “under’ runs of 10-4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 9-3-1 as an underdog, 5-2 on Friday and 5-2-1 on artificial turf, but the Rockets have soared over the total in eight of 11 as a home ‘dog.
This is the first-ever meeting between these two schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TOLEDO
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (83-58) at San Francisco (76-64)
Dodgers’ right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (5-6, 4.15 ERA) takes the ball opposite the Giants’ Matt Cain (13-4, 2.51) in the opener of a critical National League West series at AT&T Park in San Francisco.
Los Angeles leads the division by two games over the Rockies and by 6½ over San Francisco. The Giants come into this one having lost three of four overall while Los Angeles has split its last 10 games, but dropped a 4-3 decision in Arizona on Wednesday.
The Dodgers are still riding streaks of 8-3 against Cain, 38-18 against the N.L. West, 36-15 following a loss and 4-1 on the highway. Meanwhile, San Francisco has lost five straight after an off-day, but it is on positive runs of 44-19 as a home favorite, 6-1 in series openers, 20-6 at home against winning road teams and 7-3 at home overall.
Kuroda has a 2.76 ERA in his last three starts, one of which includes an Aug. 10 outing in San Francisco when he gave up just one run in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-2 Los Angeles win. In his five career starts against the Giants, three of which came in northern California, Kuroda has allowed more than three runs just once. The Dodgers are just 3-8 when Kuroda starts as a road ‘dog, and just 2-5 when he’s on the road against a winning team.
Cain is a stellar 6-2 at home this season with a 2.53 ERA, and overall the Giants have won seven of his last 10 outings, including each of his last three. In his most recent start Saturday, Cain gave up two runs on four hits in seven innings in Milwaukee as the Giants got a 3-2 victory. The last time he saw the Dodgers was April 15 when he gave up two runs on seven hits in six innings, but the Giants fell 5-4 on the road. San Francisco is just 4-9 in Cain’s last 13 starts on Fridays, but otherwise behind Cain the Giants are on runs of 16-5 when he’s a home chalk, 17-4 overall and 6-0 against the N.L. West.
Los Angeles is on a plethora of “under” runs, including 6-1 in Kuroda’s last seven starts, 11-1 when he’s an underdog, 6-1 when he faces N.L. West teams and 7-2 when he pitches on the road. As a team, the Dodgers are on “under” streaks of 21-6-3 overall, 16-5-1 on the road, 13-3-2 against the N.L. West and 7-0-1 against teams with a winning record.
It’s been all “unders” for the Giants with Cain on the hill as well, including 11-4 in his last 15 starts overall, 6-2 when he’s a favorite and 8-1 when he gets five days off. As a team, San Francisco has stayed below the total in seven of eight overall, 20 of its last 30 Friday games, 11 of 16 as a home favorite and four straight against right-handers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (72-68) at Boston (81-58)
The Rays, in the midst of season-high eight-game losing streak, send right-hander James Shields (9-10, 4.02 ERA) to the mound at Fenway Park in Boston opposite Red Sox lefty Jon Lester (12-7, 3.44).
Tampa Bay has fallen 9½ games behind the Red Sox in the race for the A.L. wild-card, virtually assuring the defending A.L. pennant-holders won’t be in line to repeat come the postseason. It was the Red Sox who started the Rays on their eight-game slide with a 6-3 win in Tampa on Sept. 3, and Boston has dominated the Rays at Fenway, winning 50 of the last 66 meetings.
The Red Sox come in riding several positive streaks, including 11-5 overall, 35-17 as a favorite, 46-19 at home, 10-3 against right-handers and 7-1 against A.L. East teams. On the opposite end, the Rays haven’t had much luck lately, including 0-5 against A.L. East teams, 5-16 against teams with a winning record and 0-6 as an underdog.
Shields was beaten up on Saturday, allowing six runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings of an 8-6 home loss to the Tigers. In his last three outings, Shields has allowed 13 runs in 20 innings. In his two starts at Fenway this season, he’s given up a combined 10 runs on 19 hits over 11 1/3 innings as the Red Sox beat him 5-3 on April 7 and 7-3 on May 8. Tampa Bay has lost six of his last eight outings against Boston. The Rays are on slides of 6-20 when Shields is a road ‘dog and 8-18 when he starts on the road against a winning team.
Lester has been strong lately, going 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA, and that includes seven innings of shutout ball in Chicago on Sunday as the Red Sox scored a 6-1 win. Boston has won each of his last five starts and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a contest since July 30, a span of eight starts. The Red Sox have lost three of his four starts against Tampa this season, but he’s performed well in the last two, allowing three runs in 12 innings of action. Boston is on streaks of 44-14 when Lester is a favorite, 37-16 in his last 53 overall and 17-5 when he starts at home against a winning team.
With Shields on the bump, the Rays have topped the total in four straight, but the “under” is on runs of 13-3 when he’s a ‘dog and 9-4-1 when he faces A.L. East foes. As a team, Tampa is on “under” runs of 7-2 on the road, 12-4 as a ‘dog, 5-2 in series openers and 4-1 overall. With Lester pitching, the Red Sox are on “under” streaks of 14-6-1 against winning teams10-3-3 in series openers and 5-2-1 at home. However, as a team, Boston has topped the total in 15 of 20 at home, 19 of 26 as a favorite, 11 of 12 series openers and four of five against A.L. East rivals.
Finally, in this series the “over” is 4-0-1 when Shields faces the Sox and 3-0-1 in the last four overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
WUNDERDOG
Colorado at Toledo
Pick: Toledo +4
Toledo is never an easy out when you get them at home. They have also proven to be best when they aren't expected to win as they have turned in an 8-3 ATS mark as a home dog this decade. The Buffaloes, who once played even with Nebraska and Oklahoma in the Big-12, have not been seen since the 1990s. The proof came last week when they were a big favorite at home vs. a weak Colorado State team with a brand new quarerback, and before you knew it they were down 20-3. The offense is simply a mess and the coaching is suspect. Dan Hawkins, while he killed it at Boise, is just 13-23 ATS at Colorado. He claims the Buffs are capable of winning ten games this season, but now there are just 11 left and he has to go to Oklahoma State and Texas yet, so I don't see it. The play calling and defensive line are issues and the secondary is very suspect. This is a team that has won a total of two road games in the last three years and have no right being favored in this spot. Very telling is the fact the Buffalo's are 0-6 ATS following a game where the offense generated 275 yards or less. Toledo is a tough out at home where they are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 played. They are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home coming off a road loss. I'm going with Toledo in this one.
Frank Jordan
Colorado vs. Toledo
Play: Colorado -3.5
Both teams dropped their first game of the year with Colorado losing at home 23-17 to Colorado State and Toledo losing on the road 52-31 to Purdue. The good news is that one of these teams will have a win, but some one will be 0-2 also. In this one look for Colorado to get its first win on the year on the road at Toledo Friday Night. Play Colorado
Rob Vinciletti
Atlanta Braves vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Under 8
There are several solid under indicators in this game tonight. The Cardinals have gone under in 15 of 20 games as a home favorite in this range. Both teams have played low scoring games in the month of September. Atlanta has gone under in 5 of their last 6. St.Louis has gone under in 4 of their last five. In the pitching match up the Braves have J.Jurjens going tonight and he has been solid in his road starts with a 3.13 era. Pineiro for the Cardinals has been equally solid at home with a 2.62 era. The Braves have really struggled at the plate over the past week hitting just .172,while averaging just 2.4 runs per game heading into Thursdays game. Look for another low scoring game here tonight.
DC Riley
Los Angeles @ San Francisco
Play On: Under
After 4 straight losing seasons the San Francisco Giants are in the thick of a Wild Card and Divisional Playoff Race. Sporting a marvelous 76-64 record the Giants have been riding the tails of 08 Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and todays starter Matt Cain(13-4). Many tell the tale of pitching and defense winning ball games and championships, the Giants definitely have solid pitching leading the league in fewest runs allowed and leading in strike outs. With that being said the Giants are not the biggest threat with the bats as they are bottom in runs scored. Combine those with a tight playoff atmosphere and a 1st place divisional team opponent how lead the league in hits and are runner ups in the fewest runs department this game as all the makings of an under.
The current line is set at 7 and we have many trends to support that this number may even be a tad high. Lets take the under in a game that sets up to be a pitching duel from start to finish.
Pick: San Francisco Under 7
Marc Lawrence
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox send Gavin Floyd to the mound in Los Angeles to take on Joe Saunders and the Angels in the opener of a three-game series tonight. Floyd enters tonight's fray in terrific current form with 1 walk and 19 strikeouts in his last three starts, while sporting a 2.87 ERA in those games. On the other side of the coin, Saunders owns a gaudy 8.59 ERA in his last five home starts and is 0-2 at home with a 9.00 ERA in his career starts against the Pale Hose. With that we'll fade the Halos here this evening.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play: St. Louis over Atlanta
The Braves ran into some tough luck in Houston and now they face an old nemesis St. Louis, no less on the road. The Cardinals have won 9 of 12 in this series and 4 of 5 in Busch Stadium. Also, we find the Cards 8-0 with a day of rest, 9-1 on Friday and 21-5 in game #1 of a series. With veteran RHP Pineiro hitting the bump, the Redbirds are 11-1 in his team starts. Go Cardinals!
DUNKEL
Toronto at Detroit
The Blue Jays look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 2-5 in Nate Robertson's last 7 starts as a home favorite. Toronto is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+155)
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Lehr) 16.134; Cubs (Harden) 15.127
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-210); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+190); N/A
Game 953-954: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Figueroa) 13.937; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.142
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-245); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-245); Under
Game 955-956: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martin) 13.671; Florida (Johnson) 15.836
Dunkel Line: Florida by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-250); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-250); Under
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.104; Houston (Norris) 13.447
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+160); Under
Game 959-960: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.946; St. Louis (Pineiro) 16.191
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Over
Game 961-962: Milwaukee at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 14.667; Arizona (Davis) 15.827
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-130); Over
Game 963-964: Colorado at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 16.478; San Diego (Mujica) 15.823
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-145); Under
Game 965-966: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.814; San Francisco (Cain) 15.503
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+130); Over
Game 967-968: Kansas City at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 14.658; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.885
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130); Under
Game 969-970: Baltimore at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 15.098; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.718
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-280); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-280); Under
Game 971-972: Toronto at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Tallet) 15.128; Detroit (Robertson) 14.505
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+155); Over
Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.571; Boston (Lester) 15.249
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+180); Under
Game 975-976: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Morrow) 15.331; Texas (Millwood) 15.185
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-205); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+185); Under
Game 977-978: Oakland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mortensen) 15.332; Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.412
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-185); Under
Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 16.641; LA Angels (Saunders) 15.575
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+135); Over
NCAAF
Colorado at Toledo
The Rockets look to build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games as a home underdog. Toledo is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has Colorado favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+4)
Game 303-304: Colorado at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 79.860; Toledo 77.639
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 59
Vegas Line: Colorado by 4; 53
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+2); Over
WNBA
Minnesota at Los Angeles
The Sparks look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 road games. Los Angeles is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-6)
Game 651-652: Connecticut at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 106.279; Atlanta 115.777
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 175
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 168 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Over
Game 653-654: Minnesota at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 106.326; Los Angeles 115.967
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 9 1/2; 156 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 6; 151
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-6); Over
JIM FEIST
TORONTO BLUE JAYS / DETROIT TIGERS
TAKE: OVER
A couple of starters on the hill with below average stuff. Brian Tallet of the Blue Jays has a 5.31 ERA and in 6 of his last 8 starts, the teams have combined for 10 or more runs. He comes off a thumping even though they won the game, a 14-8 win over the Yankees. Detroit goes with soft throwing lefty Nate Robertson who is recently back from a DL stint, with a 5.40 ERA allowing 50 base runners in 31 innings. This looks like an American League offensive show, play the Blue Jays/Tigers Over the total.
JR TIPS
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Rockies at Padres
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The Colorado Rockies are one of MLB's hottest teams as they have a seven-game winning streak. They will look to continue its push toward the top of the NL West tonight with the opener of a nine-game road trip, which starts with three against the suddenly surging Padres. The Rockies pitchers have a 2.90 ERA in those games, and they finished a four-game sweep of Cincinnati with a 5-1 victory last night. Jorge De La Rosa (14-9, 4.51 ERA) will take the mound for Colorado and try to continue his strong run after winning twice on the homestand, allowing a total of two earned runs in 11 innings although the left-hander had control problems in his last start Sunday against Arizona, walking six in five innings of a 13-5 win, but he's still 12-2 with a 3.34 ERA in his last 14 starts.He'll have to pitch deeper tonight after Colorado's bullpen worked six scoreless innings in Thursday's victory. De La Rosa will face a San Diego lineup that is last in the majors with 550 runs, but he's 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA in three starts against the Padres this year although the Rockies are 8-4 in the season series.San Diego hasn't been easy to beat lately taking two of three on the road from the Dodgers and Giants in its last two series and winning 11 of 15 overall.They'll hand the ball to Edward Mujica for a spot start in place of rookie Mat Latos, who was shut down for the season to limit his innings. Mujica (3-4, 3.51) will be making his first major league start after 116 relief appearances over the last four years.It will be tough for the reliever to face this hot Colorado team when his longest outing this year has only been 4 1/3 innings as San Diego will have to rely on it's relievers tonight.
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TAKE COLORADO-150
VEGAS EXPERTS
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
Not sure how or why we're getting the Redbirds at such a good price Friday evening, but we won't stop to ask. Undoubtedly the NL's hottest team right now, St. Louis will start Joel Piniero, who has watched the team win 11 of his last 12 starts overall. The Cardinals have won 43 of their last 62 games period and will be facing Jair Jurrjens, who has a lifetime 0 for 8 team start record against the NL Central Division.
Play on: St. Louis
EZWINNERS
Colorado Buffalos @ Toledo Rockets
Play: Toledo Rockets +3.5
Watching the Colorado Buffalos lose their home opener to Colorado State was a sickening experience. Colorado is a bad football team on both sides of the ball. The Rams shredded the CU defense and the Buffalos offense is horrible. Their quarterback play is very bad, but daddy Hawkins doesn’t want to send his son to the bench. The Toledo Rockets defense is not a very good unit either and I do expect the Buffs to score points, but I don’t think they can match scores with the potent passing attack of Toledo. The Rockets are led by senior quarterback Aaron Apelt who threw for over 400 yards last week against Purdue. Apelt should be able to find big holes in the Colorado secondary all night. The supposed strength of the CU defense at safety and corner got themselves burned numerous times during the Colorado State game and I expect them to get burned by the Rockets who might attempt over 60 passes in this game. This is a real flat spot for Colorado who is traveling on a short week to play a MAC opponent after playing their most hated in state rival. You can be sure that Toledo will be up for this nationally televised home game against a Big 12 opponent. The Rockets are 8-3 against the spread the last ten years as a home underdog in the Glass Bowl with straight up wins against the last two Big 12 opponents (Kansas and Iowa State) to visit. I like the Rockets in a shoot out. Take the points.
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Under
Los Angeles is 7-0-1 UNDER their last 8 games vs. winning teams and they are 6-0-1 UNDER their last 7 games vs. righty starters. Since coming off the DL Dodger starter Hirocki Kuroda has allowed 11 runs total in his last 5 starts. The Dodgers are 16-5-1 UNDER their last 22 road games. San Francisco starter Matt Cain has allowed 12 runs total in his last 5 starts. The Giants are 20-8 UNDER their last 28 games as favorites and they are 11-4 UNDER in the last 15 starts made by by Matt Cain. The Giants are 20-8-2 UNDER on Friday. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Dave Price
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -1.5 -120
I'll back the red hot Marlins on the run line tonight behind their ace against the lowly Nationals. Right off the bat, Washington is only 1-18 on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season, losing by an average of 3.1 runs per game in these spots. But here's the clincher, Josh Johnson is 19-3 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons with his team winning by an average score of 6.2 to 3.6 in these spots. Take the Marlins on the run line.
Jeff Benton
Atlanta at ST. LOUIS -130
For Friday, I’ll go back to the baseball diamond – where I’ve hit three straight freebies – and play the Cardinals at home against the Atlanta Braves.
Both Joel Pineiro (St. Louis) and Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta) are having tremendous seasons with near identical pitching numbers – Jurrjens has the better ERA (2.93 to 3.28) but Pineiro has the better WHIP (1.11 to 1.25). But here’s the major difference: When Pineiro pitches, the Cardinals win; when Jurrjens pitches, Atlanta is a sub-.500 team.
Prior to Sunday’s 6-5 loss at Pittsburgh in which Pineiro gave up four runs in six innings, the Cardinals had won 11 straight games behind the right-hander, including five in a row at home and eight in a row as a favorite. By comparison, even though Jurrjens has outstanding numbers, Atlanta is just 13-16 in his 29 starts, including 2-6 in his last eight. The last 13 times Jurrjens has opened a series, the Braves have lost 12 times, and they’re also winless in Jurrjens’ last 11 starts against teams from the National League Central.
Jurrjens has also started twice against St. Louis in his career (one this year, one last year, both at home), and the Braves lost 7-2 and 3-2, the latter being a loss to Pineiro on April 27.
These are two teams going in different directions, too. St. Louis is 36-15 in its last 51 overall, 21-6 in its last 27 at home, 9-1 in its last 10 games on Friday, 21-5 in its last 26 series openers and it has won eight straight after an off day. Atlanta, on the other hand, played a long game at Houston last night and has lost six of its last eight. Oh, and St. Louis has taken nine of the last 12 against the Braves, to boot.
3♦ ST. LOUIS