Stephen Nover
Los Angeles at SAN FRANCISCO -130
This is the most important series of the season for the Giants, trailing the Dodgers by 6 1/2 games. The Giants are looking to Matt Cain, especially with Tim Lincecum having missed his last start.
Cain has elevated himself this season into becoming one of the best right-handed pitchers in baseball going 13-4 with a 2.61 ERA. The Giants are one of the best home teams in baseball and are 17-4 in Cain's last 21 games at AT&T Park. They are going to be very tough to beat in this spot, yet the spread is relatively low.
The Dodgers have been very mediocre going 16-16 since Aug. 7. Several of their hitters are hobbling, including Casey Blake and Jim Thome.
Randy Wolf was supposed to make this start for Los Angeles. He had to be scratched because of a sore elbow.
Instead 34-year-old Hiroki Kuroda gets to make his second start since coming off the DL following a concussion suffered after a line drive hit him in the head. Kuroda was rusty and didn't have good command in his first outing back last Sunday giving up three earned runs to the weak-hitting Padres in five innings.
1♦ S.F. GIANTS
Tony Mathews
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros
Selection: Pittsburgh/Houston Over 9
The Pittsburgh Pirates will use starting pitcher Charlie Morton. Charlie Morton has struggled this season. In fact, Charlie Morton has a 5.43 ERA on the season. We see Charlie Morton giving up many runs once again today.
The Houston Astros will use starting pitcher Bud Norris. Bud Norris has also struggled this season. In fact, Bud Norris has a 6.05 ERA on the season. In addition, Bud Norris has a 10.50 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Bud Norris (also) giving up many runs once again today.
Trend: The Over is 10-2-1 in the Houston Astros last 13 games as a favorite.
Take the Pittsburgh Pirates/Houston Astros Over 9
Wunderdog
Minnesota at Los Angeles
Pick: Minnesota +6.5
The Minnesota Lynx lost their best player early, and played competitively, then hit a really horrific stretch that saw them lose nine out of 10 games. With their best player gone, and the season in a hopeless state, it would have been easy for them to mail it in the rest of the way. That never happened, and is a testament to this team that they didn't quit. What has happened is they have kept working, and have now won three of their last five and the two losses were close games - within the pointspread offered here. The Sparks have managed to pull themselves together to reach the .500 mark for the season, through the help of a six-game winning streak, but have slipped back again at 2-3 over their last five. I will back Minnesota in this one.
LT Profits
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park has been the stingiest ballpark in baseball this season in terms of runs scored, and we look for that to continue tonight when the Colorado Rockies visit the San Diego Padres.
Game in this stadium are averaging just a combined 7.56 runs this season, so a posted total of 8.0 in this park is considered to be higher than it would be in most other stadiums. The Padres are batting a woeful .217 as a team here, and also consider that this is not the same Rockies team we are accustomed to seeing, as it is actually their pitching that has propelled them to the wild card lead. Colorado is batting a modest .241 on the road.
Rockies starter Jorge de la Rosa enters this contest on a bit of a roll, as he has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts including allowing either one or no earned runs in four of those outings. The last thing San Diego needs right now is to face a hot pitcher in this spacious park, and they have struggles against southpaws this season regardless of the venue, batting only .236 against them overall including a disgusting .196 here.
Now Edward Mujica is making his first Major League start tonight after 116 career relief appearances including 63 this season. He has earned this opportunity though by pitching very well in middle relief, as he has a 3.51 ERA in 77 innings with 60 strikeouts against just 16 walks. Mujica will not embarrass himself in a four or five innings stint, and he will then turn things over to a red-hot Padres bullpen that has accumulated a sparkling 1.74 ERA over the last 10 games.
Look for a typically low-scoring Petco Park contest tonight.
Pick: Rockies/Padres Under 8
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on LA Angels -138
Bottom Line: The Angels are the better side with the better starter on the hill tonight at a decent price. The White Sox are just 5-10 in Floyd's road starts this season, in which he carries a 5.17 ERA. Saunders has found his groove for the Halos, winning his last 3 starts while posting an ERA of 2.08. I'll take the Halos here for 1 Unit.
Matt Fargo
Atlanta at St. Louis
Play Atlanta
We’ll take a shot with the Braves tonight who are not completely out of things but need a massive run to end the month. Atlanta took 2 of 3 in Houston which upped its record to 37-35 on the road, the 8th best road record in all of baseball. The Cardinals are no doubt solid at home, going 43-26 on the season but they have the division locked up which actually helps us. Atlanta goes with Jair Jurrjens who continues to have a phenomenal season. He has a 2.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through 29 starts and he has now tossed 5 straight quality starts to up his count to 20 on the season. He has faced St. Louis twice in his career with the Braves and both have been quality outings, posting a 3.46 ERA in those games. He will be opposed by Joel Pineiro who is enjoying a great bounce-back season after a dismal 2008. However, we may be seeing some fatigue set in; in his last two starts, he allowed 4 runs in each game, posting a 5.54 ERA covering 13 innings. Pineiro has been great at home but the Cardinals are averaging only 3.7 RPG in his 12 home starts and that could pose a real problem tonight against Jurrjens. Braves!
Drew Gordon
Chi. White Sox at LA ANGELS -135
Now on a 55-41 roll with the plays I'm giving away. For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Chi. White Sox/LA Angels match up.
Two very good pitchers square off tonight at Angel Stadium, but you've got to give the edge to the Halos Joe Saunders, who's baffled the White Sox bats the last 4 times he's seen them, going 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA, while holding their batters to a lockdown .167 average! White Sox are playing well, but the fact they're batting .247 against lefties over their L10 games is bad news coming into this match up.
On the flip side, Gavin Floyd has posted a 2.62 ERA over his L20 starts, but before you go betting the farm on the White Sox righty, consider he's just 5-6 with a very beatable 5.17 ERA on the highway this season. Note, while he did pitch well against the Halos the last time he saw them, that start came at the Cell, and I expect Floyd's road-weariness to re-emerge in this match up.
Finally, while neither team is swinging the bats particularly well right now, there's no question you've give the edge to the Angels at home, where they crush righties. Halos average 5.6 runs per game against righties at home, batting a red-hot .296 in the process! They also happen to be an impressive 30-19 on the season against right-handed starters. In the end, Floyd gets exposed a bit here on the road, as the Angels ride Saunders to the "W!"
Take the LA Angels behind Saunders over the Chicago White Sox and Floyd in this MLB match up.
1♦ LA ANGELS
Glenn McGrew
Brewers at D-Backs
This is a high total for an NL game, especially with two free swinging offenses. Milwaukee is 13th in the majors in runs scored, Arizona 20th. A couple of effective veteran starters are on the hill, too. Braden Looper of the Brewers has a 3.32 ERA his last three starts with few walks, while Doug Davis (3.81 ERA) paints the corners and forces free swinging teams to reach for bad pitches. This total is to! o high Play the Brewers/D-Backs Under the total.
SEAN MURPHY
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
The D'Backs finally snapped their 6-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory over the Dodgers on Wednesday. After a day off on Thursday, I look for them to stay on the winning path for at least one more night.
The fact that Brewers starter Braden Looper has thrown more than 100 pitches in three consecutive starts is key. He's done so only twice previously over his last three seasons as a starter. After doing so last September, Looper was rocked in his next start, allowing nine hits and four earned runs over six innings of a 5-1 loss in Chicago. He did so in late June this season, and in his next outing allowed five earned runs, off of four home runs, in six innings of a 12-8 loss vs. the Dodgers.
The Brewers have won only three times in Looper's last nine starts overall. I still believe he's due for a correction based on his 11-6 record. That's especially true on the road, where he is 7-3 in spite of a 5.03 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season. Note that he was a 4-1 loser in his lone previous start against the D'Backs this season.
Doug Davis continues to be a picture of consistency for the D'Backs. He has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts, and has worked at least six innings in all eight of those outings. He pitched well against the Brewers last season, allowing 11 hits and four earned runs over 11 2/3 innings, winning a game 6-3 here in Arizona. He is just 4-6 at Chase Field this season, but has been effective, posting a solid 3.01 ERA.
As bad as the D'Backs have been offensively this season, the Brewers have been even worse lately. Milwaukee has scored two runs or less in five of its last six games, totaling just 10 runs over that stretch.
In a matchup of two of the National League's biggest disappointments, I'll go with the home side. Take Arizona.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Colorado/ Toledo Under 54.5: CU's defensive strength is their DB's and Toledo will not throw for over 400 vs them. Colorado want's to run run run and that will help eat clock. Should be a score in the mid 40's here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Colorado -3.5 over TOLEDO