Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 12

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAF

Baylor at Buffalo
The Bulls are coming off a 47-39 loss to Army in which they allowed the Black Knights to gain 466 yards in total offense and come into tonight's contest against Baylor with a 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in the previous game. Buffalo is the pick (+33) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by only 27. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+33)

Game 107-108: Toledo at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 86.614; Cincinnati 101.224
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 14 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 11; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-11); Under

Game 109-110: Baylor at Buffalo (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 100.140; Buffalo 73.316
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 27; 63
Vegas Line: Baylor by 33; 67 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+33); Under

CFL

Montreal at Edmonton
Montreal heads to Edmonton on Friday night and comes into the contest with a 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 Friday games. Edmonton is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Eskimos favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-10)

Game 291-292: Montreal at Edmonton (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 104.673; Edmonton 119.978
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 15 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 10; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-10); Over

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

Game 293-294: Toronto at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 113.294; Calgary 122.978
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 9 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 295-296: Winnipeg at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 108.983; BC 119.164
Dunkel Line: BC by 10; 45
Vegas Line: BC by 6 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: BC (-6 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

Game 297-298: Saskatchewan at Hamilton (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 116.671; Hamilton 111.673
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 5; 51
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 1 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+1 1/2); Over

WNBA

Phoenix at Chicago
The Mercury look to follow up their 97-68 win over Chicago in Game 2 on Tuesday and come into tonight's contest with a 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games when playing with 2 days rest. Phoenix is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-7)

Game 605-606: Phoenix at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 122.106; Chicago 111.561
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 10 1/2; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 158
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-7); Under

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers +119

The first place Dodgers are a dog here and they have a better road record than the Giants have at home. They have had some starting pitching concerns, but not tonight as Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-6, 3.16 ERA) has been strong all year. yu pitched 6.2 innings Saturday, giving up two runs and seven hits while striking out nine and walking one in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks. The team is 7-1 his last 8 starts. The Dodgers are 12-3 in Ryu's last 15 starts with 5 days of rest, plus 21-6 against the National League West. Lefty Madison Bumgarner is 6-6 with a 4.36 ERA at home and the Dodgers are 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Giants are 2-6 in Bumgarner's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record and the Dodgers are 5-1 in Ryu's last six starts against the Giants.

Rob Vinciletti

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -138

Toronto fits a solid league wide system here tonight that plays on home favorites that are off a home favored win by 5 or more runs vs an opponent like Tampa that comes in off a 1 run road loss and scored 4 or less runs. Tampa was stunned last night as the Yankees scored 3 runs in the ninth to win 5-4. Toronto has averaged over 6 runs the past week and has won 7 of 9 this month. They have won 17 of 24 off 3+ wins. The Jays will get Tampa N. Karns making his first start. He will oppose lefty J. Happ who has a solid 3.42 home era. Look for Toronto to stay hot and take the opener.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jonathan Jorcin

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -120

Baltimore is talking about the magic number. That number is eight and coming off of a sweep, they will look to lower that number versus the Yankees. They have had the Yankees number this year with an 8-3 record. Tomorrow they send out Kevin Gausman, LSU product, who is winless in his last four starts but was sharp at Tampa on Saturday allowing 2 runs over 7 strong frames. He has been great all year at limiting the home run, only allowing 5 over 96 1/3 innings of work. Gausman has been stellar against New York in his career, going 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA in 6 games.

New York is thankful that they even have an outside shot at the playoffs. Brandon McCarthy has been a huge reason for the Yankees staying in the run. He is 6-4 with a 2.79 ERA in his 11 starts since joining the team, but tomorrow draw the Orioles. Unfortunately for him he gets the hottest team in baseball on the road, where he hasn’t nearly been as sharp. His last two on the road he has given up 9 runs in 12 1/3 innings. The Orioles have a lot to play for, and they continue to run away with the division.

Jesse Schule

Baylor vs. Buffalo
Play: Under 70

The Bears offense looks unstoppable coming off a 70-6 blowout win at home over Northwestern State. Baylor will play it's first road game of the season tonight in Buffalo, and everyone is expecting them to match last week's effort offensively.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears cover a 34 point spread against a Buffalo Bulls team that has allowed an average of 37 points while playing two of the minnows of college football in Weeks 1 & 2. I don't think you should expect this team to put up 70 points every week though, and I think the Bulls will prove to be closer to the caliber of SMU, who they defeated 45-0, rather than Northerwestern State who defeated 70-6.

Another thing to consider is how many points will this Bears defense concede? They haven't allowed a TD so far, and Buffalo's offense is likely going to get stuck in neutral here today. Bulls QB Joe Licata was picked off three times by Army last week, and that doesn't bode well as he will face an opportunistic Bears defense. The fact that Licata is capable of moving the ball, should work in favor of the under, as he's likely to burn up some clock before either punting or turning the ball over.

The last time these teams met in Buffalo, the Bears won by a score of 34-21. The Bulls have seen the total go under in 16 of their last 23 home games, and none of those games saw a total as high as 70.

After throwing five TD passes in the first half last week, backup quarterback Seth Russell will ride the pine in favor Bryce Petty, who suffered a back injury in the opener. It's going to be tough for Petty to do any better than Russell did last week, and if he's still sore he could be a little less spectacular than usual.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

MLB Predictions

Astros / Angels Over 8.5

There was a time where C.J. Wilson was on the cusp of being something great. I think after this season, however, he'll just be looking to bounce back and salvage his career. And just when you think he may turn the corner, Wilson simply falls apart again. For his salary in L.A. a 4.64 ERA isn't good enough. Note that he has been consistently poor all season long. His last three outings produced a 6.46 ERA with a 1.76 WHIP and .391 OBP. The Astros really only do one thing good offense, hit lefties. They are hitting .261 against them, which is a huge improvement from what they were doing a year ago. They recently hit Wilson for 5 runs on September 2nd and 6 on July 4th. While I think the 'Stros should be able to put forth a decent effort against Wilson, the Angels should be able to carry the load on this total. The offense is the hottest in the league, averaging 10 runs per game in their last five games, yes 10 a game. Which is of course 2 runs more than the total of 8.5. And guess what? The Angels hit left-handed pitching well too, which Oberholtzer happens to be. He has been struggling lately as well, like Wilson, Oberholtzer has a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts with a 1.67 WHIP and .370 OBP. I wish him luck trying to slow down the Angels. He's icy cold, while the Angels' bats are on fire. I was expecting a number of 9, so the OVER at 8.5 looks good in my opinion.

Sleepyj

Washington -145

Wash has a serious road trip here and will look to close out the season here with a successful 2 week stretch. Wash will send Gio Gonzalez to the mound tonight. Gonzalez has pitched a few good outings his last 2 games as he picked 2 wins here in a row. Last time out Vs this Mets lineup Gionzalez picked up the loss. Mets will counter with Dillon Gee tonight. Gee has struggled coming down the stretch and is a pitcher in spots i like to fade. Tonight is one of them spots. Mets go from RHP Roak to LHP Ginzalez. I expect some timing issues here for the Mets. I think Washington facing 4 straight RHP will have success here against Gee. Gee has tired down the stretch and i think Wash will look to get off with a solid 2 road games with wins here tonight. Washington is now tied with the La Dodgers for the NL best record. Winning games now may prove to be beneficial come playoff time if they can finish with the NL's best record. I think Washington gives a solid effort here and they get to Gee and come away with a win tonight.

Larry Ness

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

I used a Las Vegas Insider on the Brewers last night saying in part, “Milwaukee has NOT lost its drive to remain a serious playoff contender. The team’s 4-1 victory over Miami on Wednesday was one of just FOUR the Brewers had earned in their last 20 games! Wins have been scarce for Milwaukee lately but the team entered Thursday just 1 1/2 games out of the NL's final wild card spot.” I also had the opportunity to go against Miami’s Nathan Eovaldi, who since June 1 had made 18 starts with the Marlins winning just FOUR times. Opposing him was Mike Fiers, who is 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA as a starter since being recalled from the minors to join the rotation back on August 9.

The Brewers (76-71) had lost 16 of 19 before winning the final two of a four-game set with Miami. Their 4-2 victory on Thursday kept them 1 1/2 games back of the Pirates, who won 4-1 at Philly. Cincinnati was an NL-worst 16-33 since the All-Star break after losing 5-0 at home on Monday to the Cards. However, the Reds took the final three of a four-game set with first-place St Louis, capped by Cueto earning his 18th win with a 1-0 victory Thursday afternoon. The visiting Reds will look for a fourth consecutive win Friday night against a Milwaukee Brewers team that's trying for a third straight victory. "We created an environment where we play the spoiler," Reds manager Bryan Price said after Thursday's victory over the Cardinals.

Cincinnati managed just six runs while being swept in a three-game series at Miller Park in July. Mat Latos (5-5, 3.25 ERA) allowed five runs in seven innings of a 5-2 defeat in the first game of that series, falling to 0-4 with a 3.66 ERA in six starts at Milwaukee. Kyle Lohse (12-9, 3.85 ERA) has allowed 12 runs on 13 hits in 9.2 innings while losing two straight starts. but he’s had a solid season , as the Brewers are 17-11 in all of his starts, including 7-4 at home where his ERA is 2.72, just a shade under two runs lower than his road ERA (4.71). In 18 career starts vs the Reds, Lohse is just 6-5 (teams are 9-9) but it’s hard to argue with his 2.91 ERA.

The Reds may have just taken three in a row from the Cards but that was at home. It’s impossible to ignore that the Reds are 5-19 on the road since the All Star break and I do believe the Brewers haven’t given up. Can they climb back into one of the two wild card spots? Maybe not but I’ll sure back them here.

Ben Burns

Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Chicago +1.5

While the fact Chicago is currently on a six-game losing streak isn't great, I'll still back them +1.5 tonight against the Pirates. It's also true that Pittsburgh swept the Cubbies just last weekend at Wrigley Field. But not only will Chicago have revenge in this one, but in my opinion they also have the better starting pitcher as well.

Tsuyoshi Wada has been very effective so far for the Cubs. While he did have to exit early because of cramping the last time we saw him (vs. Pittsburgh), there has been only one instance of him allowing more than three earned runs in a start this year. In 10 starts overall, Wada has a 2.95 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He has a 0.89 WHIP his last three starts.

One advantage the Cubs do have in this matchup is that they were off yesterday. Pittsburgh had to play in Philadelphia and did beat the Phillies 4-1. But Chicago is a profitable 9-7 following an off-day this season. That includes a very good 7-2 run coming into today. They have also taken five of their last seven series openers.

Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole did get the win when he faced the Cubs last weekend, but did allow four runs in six innings. He allowed five runs in his last start before that, a loss to St. Louis.

Keep an eye on the status of Sterling Marte for the Pirates. He's been one of the hotter hitters in all of baseball lately, but had to leave Thursday's game after being hit by a pitch. He very well may not play tonight. That would be a big loss for the Pirates lineup.

Ben Burns's Featured Package

William Holloway

Blue Jays -139

Toronto has won 9 of 11 as their pitching has been lights out! They send Happ to the mound as he is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his last 2 against the Rays. The Rays have lost 6 of 10 and Nathan Karns is making his MLB debut. He was 0-1 and had an ERA over 7 last season with the Nats, and should have a tough time against a surging Toronto team.

Robert Ferringo

Cincinnati -11

In a bit of a scheduling quirk, Cincinnati actually started the year with two straight bye weeks. They are the last D-I team to play a game, and these guys have to be chomping at the bit to hit someone in a different colored uniform. The Bearcats get to unleash the fury on Toledo in prime time on Friday night, and I think this one will be dominated by the underrated Bearcats. First, Cincinnati has revenge after Toledo actually beat them in 2012. That win in the Glass Bowl was Cincinnati’s first loss of the 2012 season, and that gives the Bearcats legit revenge in this game. Second, Toledo is coming off an ugly 25-point home loss to Missouri, and they have to be a bit dazed still. The Rockets lost starting quarterback Phil Ely to a torn ACL, and now they have a short week and their first road trip of the year to deal with on top of that. Toledo would’ve had a tough time in this game anyway. But with a backup quarterback facing a rabid Bearcats team that is playing with revenge I think Toledo is going to get throttled. The Rockets might be able to hang around for a quarter or two as Cincinnati shakes off some rust. But UC’s talent is going to kick in, and they are going to run away with this one in the second half.

Jack Jones

Cincinnati -9½

Toledo (1-1) got off to a great start this season with a 54-20 victory over New Hampshire as an 11-point favorite. Many gave it a good chance to upset Missouri last week as it was just a 3.5-point underdog at home, including myself, but it fell by a final of 24-49.

Cincinnati must be chomping at the bit to get its season underway. It was the only team in the country to open with two straight byes to start the season. The Bearcats will only get one more bye the rest of the way as they now play eight straight weeks before receiving it.

One of the biggest reasons I picked Toledo to win the MAC this season was Alabama transfer Phillip Ely. He is a tremendous quarterback, but unfortunately the Rockets lost him to a season-ending knee injury in the loss to Missouri last week. This team is going to struggle without him out there calling the shots.

Quietly, Cincinnati has one of the best home-field advantages in the country. It has gone a combined 48-13 at home over the past 10 years. It has gone 5-1 or better at home in five of the past six seasons. Tommy Tuberville’s bunch won nine games last year and returns 13 starters this year. I actually have the Bearcats winning the AAC in 2014.

Just as I was high on Ely for Toledo, I’m even bigger on sophomore Gunner Kiel of Cincinnati. He was the top QB recruit in the country coming out of high school. Unfortunately, it did not work out for him at Notre Dame, so he decided to transfer here to the Bearcats. He’ll have the luxury of having four of the top five receivers back from last year and seven returning starters on offense in all. The defense gave up just 21.0 points and 316 yards per game last year and should be strong again.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (CINCINNATI) – incredible offense from last season – averaged 450 or more total yards/game are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bearcats are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games. Cincinnati has won 12 straight home openers by an average of 35 points per game.

Nick Parsons

Indians vs. Tigers
Play: Under 7

When looking at the under people may be put off by Price's past performances of late and his 7.13 ERA over his last three starts. I am looking at his last start against Cleveland in particular. in that game he went seven innings, striking out eight and giving up only one run. Against the Indians in his career he is 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA.

I am also playing on the under because nobody of late has been able to touch Carlos Carrasco. In his last six starts, Caraasco is 4-0 and a 0.70 ERA. Sunday he struck out eight in a 2-0 win. On Sept. 2 against these same Tigers he gave up 10 hits only giving up 1 run and striking out 10.

Both these pitchers pitch well against each other's teams and I see it happening again today. Look for a very low scoring game and pray that Detroit’s bullpen doesn't get involved.

Steve Janus

Toronto Blue Jays -132

This is a great spot to jump on the Blue Jays at home against the struggling Rays. Toronto has caught fire over the last couple weeks. They come in having won 4 straight and 9 of their last 11 overall.

I'll take my chances on the Blue Jays' J.A. Happ over the Rays Nate Karns. Happ has a 3.42 ERA and 1.244 WHIP over 11 home starts and a 2.13 ERA over his last 2 starts against Tampa Bay. Karns will be making his debut with the Rays. He made 3 starts for the Nationals last year and was not impressive with a 7.50 ERA. Things haven't been much better in the minors, as Karns had a 5.09 ERA in 27 starts with Triple-A Durham.

Key Trends/System - Toronto is 16-5 in their last 21 games when they come in having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, 8-0 in their last 8 with a total set at 7-8.5 runs and 6-0 in their last 6 home games against a right-handed starter. Add it up and that's a 30-5 (86%) system telling us to BET TORONTO -132!