Patrick Webb
Baylor vs. Buffalo
Play: Baylor -33
Baylor hung 70 on an FCS team last week without Bryce Petty. They hung 70 on Buffalo last season at home against a much, much more talented defense. Baylor is unlikely to score 70 in this game, but they are facing a Buffalo squad that has allowed 28 points to FCS Duquesne (and actually trailed in the fourth quarter) and 47 to Army in a loss last week. Baylor's defense hasn't played anyone yet, but I am not sure if Buffalo's offense yet qualifies as a someone yet. Buffalo has a fairly veteran offensive line and QB, but lost a lot of production in the passing game. I don't think Buffalo can keep up with Baylor and look for Baylor to have this number covered by halftime.
Antony Dinero
Baylor at Buffalo
Play: Baylor -33
Buffalo's losses are well-documented, starting with No. 3 pick Khalil Mack but encompassing other key figures from head coach Jeff Quinn's breakthrough season. With Bryce Petty as healthy as he's been since the opener and the Bears with their guard up on the road, expect a massive blowout.
David Banks
Baylor -34
There is a cross-sectional matchup on ESPN College Football Friday this week when the eighth ranked Baylor Bears (2-0, 2-0 ATS) and Heisman candidate Bryce Petty make the long trek up to the northeast to visit the Buffalo Bulls (1-1, 0-2 ATS) at UB Stadium at 8:00 ET. Baylor is picking up right where it left off last year, outscoring its first two opponents by a combined score of 115-6! The Bulls meanwhile did not play well while barely getting by an FCS opponent in Duquesne 38-28 in the season opener and then trailed Army 47-17 last week before finally showing some life by scoring 22 unanswered points to fall just short 47-39.
Baylor led the country in both scoring offense (52.4 points per game) and total offense (618.5 yards per contest) last year, and they are currently fourth in the land on both counts after two games this year averaging 57.5 points and 647.0 yards! And remember that Petty injured his back in the season opener vs. SMU and did not even play last week, when all that backup quarterback Seth Russell did was pass for 428 yards and six touchdowns and earn Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week honors. Petty is expected to make his return here however, which is bad news for the Buffalo defense. Before making those reservations for the Final Four, keep in mind that Baylor's video-game type numbers have not come vs. much, as SMU proceeded to lose 43-6 to North Texas in its second game last week while Baylor's second destruction came over Northwestern State of the FCS, and furthermore both of the Bears' wins have come at home. They are now playing their first road game of the season, in fact beginning a three-game road trip with a bye week in between meaning they will not be home for a while, and while the offense should continue to prosper vs. struggling Buffalo defense, the Bulls do have a good enough offense of their own to score some points here and stay inside this enormous nearly five-touchdown spread at home.
After all, Buffalo is averaging 38.5 points and 510.5 total yards through two weeks with good balance, averaging 163.5 rushing yards on 4.2 yards per carry and 347.0 passing yards on a nice 8.1 yards per attempt. Bulls quarterback Joe Licata has completed 69.8 percent of his passes while tossing eight touchdown passes already, although his stat line is tarnished by his four interceptions with three of them coming vs. Army last week. Still, the Buffalo offense is a considerable upgrade from the SMU and Northwestern State offenses that Baylor has shut down so far, and when you add in playing in hostile territory and this prime time game vs. a nationally ranked Big 12 opponent being probably the most highly anticipated game in Buffalo school history, the Bulls could easily ride that emotion and put points on the board here. Of course, Buffalo's 92nd ranked defense allowing 419.5 yards per game will probably counteract that vs. the Baylor fast-break offense, which probably takes a humongous upset out of the equation. However, covering a five-touchdown spot does seem feasible, particularly if Licata cuts down on the interceptions.
Baylor is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite, while Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards its previous game.
Wunderdog
Washington @ New York
Pick: Washington -149
The Washington Nationals have just about put the NL East crown out of reach with an 8.5 game lead over Atlanta. There is still work to be done as they hold a slender lead over the LA Dodgers for the top record in the NL, and subsequent home field advantage in the NL playoffs. The Nationals have made Citi Field a home away from home as they have dominated here for an extended period of time. They have claimed victory in their last 12 here, and over a longer period they own a 26-4 mark here. They go with Gio Gonzalez who has not let up vs. a losing team where the Nats own a 31-11 record in his last 42 against one. The Mets paying the price with Gee on the mound when facing a team that scored 2 or fewer their last time out at a woeful 1-9 in his last 10 starts in this situation. Make the play on Washington.
Dr Bob
CINCINNATI (-10) 36 Toledo 27
It’s rare that a team will have the first two weeks of the season off and have their opening game against a team that’s already played twice. In fact, it’s only happened 23 times prior in the last 35 years. In case you’re wondering, the team playing their first game is 10-13 ATS against a team that has played 2 or more games, but the record is 8-5 ATS for home teams. That’s not really even worth considering but what is worth considering in this game is the over. Cincinnati figures to once again have a solid defense, as the Bearcats were 0.4 yards per play better than average last season and project to be 0.4 yppl better than average again this season. However, Toledo’s offense should be just as good as the Cincy defense, as the Rockets rate at 0.4 yppl better than average offensively with backup quarterback Logan Woodside playing in place of injured starter Phillip Ely, who is out for the season after getting injured last week against Missouri. Toledo has averaged 543 yards at 7.1 yards per play in two games against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team and they’ll still likely be better than average without Ely (although their offensive rating dropped from +0.8 yppl to +0.4 yppl). I rate backup Logan Woodside as a below average quarterback but still not bad given the history of success that Toledo’s offensive system has had with numerous quarterbacks. Backs Kareem Hunt and Damion Jones-Moore combined for 1133 rushing yards at 6.5 ypr as backups last season and those two have combined for 361 yards at 8.0 ypr in the first two games while the team averaged 7.0 yards per rushing play against New Hampshire and 6.9 yprp last week against Missouri. Cincy will likely do a decent job of limiting Toledo to closer to the national average of 5.6 yards per play (my ratings project 5.85 yppl) but the Rockets are likely to get more than an average number of plays because they run their offense at such a fast tempo. Toledo ran their offense at a pretty normal pace last season but they’ve run an average of 77 plays (71 is average) despite having the ball for just 27.6 minutes per game. I don’t think the faster pace is reflected in the line, which is part of the reason there is value on the over and I’ll assume they’ll still run at a fast pace with Woodside.
Cincinnati has a better than average offense last season (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and I expect some improvement this season with former #1 quarterback recruit Gunner Kiel beating out veteran Munchie Legaux. Kiel transferred from Notre Dame and by all accounts he’s an upgrade over Legaux and Brandon Kay, who started the final 11 games last season after Legaux was injured. Cincinnati still managed to be 0.9 yards per pass play better than average with the backup quarterback playing most of the season and they should be better than that throwing the ball this season. I expect Kiel to have an impressive debut against a Toledo pass defense that’s given up 67% completions and 312 passing yards per game at 7.4 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average defensive team. The Rockets’ run defense has been really good in holding a good running New Hampshire team to 2.7 yards per rushing play and limiting Missouri to just 4.2 yprp last week. Overall, I actually rate the Toledo defense as a bit better than average after being 0.4 yppl worse than average last season) but I expect Cincinnati to throw the ball more than they run it to take advantage of the Rockets’ leaky secondary. Cincy is projected to average 6.0 yppl in this game and the Bearcats should also run a lot of plays because Toledo’s quick pace will give Cincinnati more possessions. Overall, the model projects 62.7 total points in this game with Woodside in place of Ely if Toledo continues to play at the pace they played the first two games. I would still get 57 points if Toledo played at last year’s pace, which was barely faster than the national average. I see no reason why Toledo would suddenly revert back to a slower pace and I don’t think that Toledo’s faster pace is reflected in the line on this game. Cincinnati is going to run more plays because they’re probably not going to run the ball that often because they aren’t likely to have much success doing so (I project only 3.8 yprp for Cincy). More passing equals more stopping of the clock and that leads to more plays.
Baylor (-32½) 52 BUFFALO 14
Baylor beat Buffalo 70-13 last season and teams that allowed 69 points or more to their opponent the previous season are 53-26 ATS. However, I’m not eager to go against a Baylor team that continues to show no mercy against weaker teams, having beaten SMU 45-0 (as a 33 point favorite) and Northwestern State 70-6 last week (as a 47 point favorite). That’s a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons as a favorite of more than 21 points and I don’t see how Buffalo’ vulnerable secondary is going to stop Baylor from scoring their normal allotment of points. Baylor’s attack could be slowed some by the injury to top WR Antwan Goodley, who is expected to miss this game, and quarterback Bryce Petty may not be 100% recovered from the injury that kept him out of last week’s game. I still would expect Baylor to have a lot of success throwing the ball even if they’re not a full strength, as Buffalo has allowed 8.5 yards per pass play to Duquesne and Army. Yes, Duquesne and Army have averaged 8.5 yards per pass play against the Bulls. If Baylor’s offense doesn’t put up their normal 50-plus points then their defense is capable to getting the cover with a dominating defensive front that has held their weaker opponents to just 2.6 yards per rushing play while registering 11 sacks in two games. I’ll lean with Baylor to cover another huge number, as they’ve done so many times in the past year.
Tom Barton
Angels vs Astros
Pick: Under 8.5
The way the Angels have been hitting the ball it almost shouldn't matter who's on the mound for this one and the Stros have actually been playing well lately as well. With the pitchers struggles on the hill I expect a slug fest here. The Angels have scored 7 or more runs in each of the last 7 games and the Stros have added 4 + runs in 5 of the last 8. Houston now faces someone they beat up pretty good in CJ Wilson. Wilson has a 13.94 ERA over the last 3 starts against Houston and the Astros have hit nearly .500 as a team against him. He allowed 5 runs to them just last week and his nearly 5 ERA on the year shows that WIlson is really struggling. The Angels though may get this number on their own the way they are swinging and now take on Brett Oberholtzer. He has been touched up for a 5 ERA over his last 5 starts and usually hands the ball over to a weak bullpen early. I expect the Angels to keep slugging away and the Astros to do what they usually do against Wilson.
LT Profits
Nationals vs Mets
Pick: Under 7
After feasting on last-place Colorado in a three-game sweep to begin this home stand, the New York Mets were brought back to reality, especially offensively, in a 6-2 loss to the Washington Nationals. Do not look for improvement tonight vs. Gio Gonzalez, as while the southpaw has had a disappointing season, he has looked like his old self lately while posting a 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his last four starts covering 25 innings. He is facing a Mets lineup batting just .207 vs. left-handed pitchers while averaging only 3.11 runs against them at Citi Field. However, Dillon Gee is capable of keeping this a low scoring contest and keeping New York in the game as he has reeled off three straight Quality Starts and is 4-3 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP at home. The ‘under’ is 11-4-1 in Gee’s last 16 starts overall.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota -101 over CHICAGO
The White Sox have scored two runs or less in six of their last seven games and one run or less four times in those seven games. They’ll now face Phil Hughes and that’s not an easy assignment. Hughes has a 3.5 ERA due to an unlucky 35% hit rate. It's a mark that just makes him an even more attractive buy-low target. His skills by month from April to August have been electric. Hughes also is showing signs of squashing the gopheritis risk that plagued him early in his career. His groundball rate over the past three months: 31%, 34%, 44%. His four-seam fastball velocity has increased in each month too. Hughes has pitched 7 innings or more in six straight starts. He has not walked a single batter over his last 37 innings and has walked just one batter over his last 44 innings. Over his last six starts covering 37 frames, Hughes has a BB/K split of 0/31 to go along with s skills supported 2.91 ERA. Phil Hughes has been one of the most consistently strong pitchers the entire year but that is not reflected in this price.
Meanwhile, Jose Quintana is trending the opposite way. The South Side has lost six of Quintana’s last seven starts and he has an xERA over that span of 4.99. All the signs of fatigue are present. Quintana’s groundball rate over his last six starts is 38%, down from his season rate of 44%. His swinging strike rate has also dipped to 9% to 7% over that same span. He’s also getting whacked the second and third times through the order with an oppBA of .347 over his last 10 starts. The Twinkies have lost six of their last seven games but it’s worth noting that they played two hot teams in Cleveland and the Angels. They still managed to score four runs or more in six of those eight games but their pitching didn’t hold up. It figures to hold up here with Hughes on the found facing a team that is seeing marbles.
SPORTS WAGERS
Montreal +9 over EDMONTON
The Alouettes are coming off back-to-back wins against Hamilton and Ottawa. Those two teams have three wins combined in 19 games and the Als have just three wins in 10 games. Montreal is still considered a weak team from the East but that is a gross misperception. Montreal has a great defense. They were losing games early because the offense couldn’t move five yards and the defense ended up playing way too minutes every game. However, since Jonathan Crompton took over the starting QB duties for Montreal, things have been different. In 2½ games, Crompton has racked up 717 yards passing and he’s getting better with each passing quarter. He has nothing but weapons around him. With Crompton in, Montreal has scored 74 points over 10 quarters since he took over from Alex Brink in the game against Winnipeg. Montreal has a new found confidence and not only can they stay well within this range, they can win this one outright.
The Eskimos will get Mike Reilly back for this one but his thumb on his throwing hand is still not 100%. Furthermore, the Eskies are coming off back-to-back very intense losses to their biggest rival, the Calgary Stampeders. In fact, Edmonton has played Calgary three times over their last six games and lost them all. That can’t be good for Edmonton’s confidence, as they wanted to defeat Calgary more than any other team in the league. This will be Edmonton’s third game in 11 days after being gashed for 69 points in its previous two. Edmonton got off to a great start but they have been regressing for weeks now. Its last two victories came against Toronto in a game they blew a big lead and could have lost and its other win came in Ottawa by a score of 10-8. What we see is an undervalued Montreal team that has as much talent if not more than Edmonton getting big points against a team that is trending the other way. What a great opportunity to cash in on these big points being offered. We’re going to step this one up and play the Als for 2½ units.
Pass NCAAF
Jeff Alexander
Washington Nationals -149
The Nationals have won 6 straight over the Mets, 41 of the last 54 and 26 of the last 30 at Citi Field. Additionally, Washington scheduled starter Gio Gonzalez has loved pitching at Citi Field, where the Nats are 6-0 in his last 6 starts. New York's Gee has struggled versus Washington, posting a 5.68 ERA in a pair of starts this season. The Mets are 0-3 in his last 3 starts versus the Nats and 2-5 in his last 7 home starts against them. The Mets are an ugly 32-72 in their last 104 games as a home underdog.
Jimmy Boyd
Braves at Rangers
Play: Under 7.5
I really like the value here with the total set at 7.5 runs in tonight's game between the Braves and Rangers. Texas comes in with an AL-worst 4.72 ERA, which I believe is a big reason why we are catching the hook on the total. The Rangers will send out Derek Holland, who has looked sensational in his first two starts of 2014. Holland has allowed 1 earned run on 12 hits with 0 walks and 11 strikeouts over 14 innings since coming off the DL and it's hard to not like his chances of staying hot against a Braves offense that is hitting just .220 as a team over their last 7 games.
I'm also expecting a strong showing from Atlanta starter Alex Wood, who has a 2.70 ERA and 1.098 WHIP over 21 starts in 2014. Wood has been even better than that of late, as he's got a 2.05 ERA and 0.864 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Adding to this is the fact that Wood has a 1.53 ERA and 1.053 WHIP over 3 interleague starts.
The UNDER is 6-0 in the Braves last 6 interleague road games vs a team with a losing record, 42-20-6 in their last 68 after scoring 5+ runs in their last game and 7-1-1 in Woods last 9 road starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. UNDER is also 11-3 in the Rangers last 14 games versus a left-handed starter, 15-5-3 in their last 23 as a underdog of +110 to +150 and 21-9-3 in their last 33 following a loss. These trends combine to form a Massive 73% (102-38) system.
Harry Bondi
TOLEDO (+10) over Cincinnati
Cincinnati is the only Division 1 team to have not played a game yet and start super hyped sophomore Gunner Kiel at QB. Kiel originally committed to LSU then transferred to Notre Dame, where he was beaten out for the starting position by Everett Golson so he transferred to Cincy. He has yet to throw a pass in a game at any school so all eyes will be on him and the 13 starters the Bearcats return. We think having played two games in which they romped over Division 2 New Hampshire and played Missouri tough for three quarters gives Toledo a big edge here. Toledo did lose their QB in the Mizzo game and that is factored into the line here. Sophomore Logan Woodside will take over for Toledo and he threw over 200 passes last year in game action and played the fourth quarter at Missouri as well as getting most of the snaps in practice this week so we expect a good game from him and another solid outing from Rocket running back Kareem Hunt who has run for 284 yards in two games. Toledo keeps it close.
Sam Martin
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Big series for both of these AL West clubs, who are battling for Wild Card positioning. Oakland currently has a one-game lead over Detroit for the first Wild Card spot, with Seattle trailing the A's by a game and a half and trailing the Tigers by a half game for that second spot. Plus, with Toronto, Cleveland, and the NY Yankees right behind them, this series will play a crucial role as this season winds down.
We'll back Seattle at home to take this opener behind James Paxton, who has been very strong in limited action this year owning an ERA under 2.00 in his nine starts this year. Jason Hammel has not been consistent on the road owning a losing 5-10 team start record where his ERA jumps nearly a full point higher (4.41) than his season ERA (3.55). A's just 2-14 on the road with a total of 7 runs or less, and we'll back the better pitcher in a huge game!
Bruce Marshall
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners
The verdict is almost in on the A's trade deadline deal with the Red Sox that sent Yoenis Cespedes to Boston in exchange for starting pitcher Jon Lester. It's been a disaster, with the offense scoring almost one-and-a-half fewer runs per game since the trade, and the punchless A's now working on losses in seven straight one-run decisions, shut out five times since the beginning of August. They've lost 9 1/2 games in the standings to the Mariners, who are one-half game back of Detroit for the second wild card. Seattle has won each of the teams' last three series after taking the final two meetings in Oakland on Sept. 2 and 3. The Mariners and starter James Paxton (5-2, 1.87 ERA) should be worth another look tonight at Safeco Field.
Michael Alexander
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -133
Karns is making his season debut in place of place of Drew Smyly, who was shut down this week after reaching his innings limit. Karns made three starts with the Washington Nationals in 2013, going 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA, and spent 2014 with the Rays’ Triple-A affiliate in Durham. The 26-year-old went 9-9 with a 5.08 ERA in 27 starts for the Bulls. Toronto is 3 1/2 games behind the Detroit Tigers in the race for the second wild card spot and began its homestand by outscoring the Chicago Cubs 28-3 in a three-game sweep. The Blue Jays are 9-2 in their last 11 contests, including a three-game sweep at Tampa Bay to start September.