Prophet Plays
Colorado Rockies vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals -1.5
What has made Wainwright such a good run line play this season is the fact the Cards - a streaky offensive team that carries a 17-inning scoreless streak into this series opener - have generally given him strong run support. The team is 9-3 in his Busch Stadium outings this season and seven of those nine wins have come by at least two-run margins. Wainwright is 6-1 lifetime against Colorado with a 1.50 ERA and he's won each of his last four starts against the Rockies, who have been shutout in 19 straight innings as they arrive in St. Louis. St. Louis, winners of five in a row at home, is on a 19-8 series roll, including 11-3 in the last 14 at Busch Stadium. Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa is one of those rare hurlers who actually pitches better in the thin air at Coors than on the road. He is 9-2 with a 3.30 ERA in 14 home starts this season versus 4-9 with a 5.29 EA in 15 road outings. Those numbers mirror his production from a year ago when he went 10-1 with a 2.76 ERA in 14 home outings but 6-5 with a 4.19 ERA in 16 road assignments. The Rockies opened their current road trip with three straight losses to the Mets and they were shutout in the final two games of the series. They've lost 31 of 36 on the road since a three-game sweep of the Giants in San Francisco way back in mid-June.
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the St. Louis Cardinals Run Line over the Colorado Rockies, as I think the N.L. Central leaders are about to enjoy this weekend set.
St. Louis is at home and welcomes a Rockies team that may be one of the best overall hitting teams, batting average wise, but that arrives at Busch Stadium after seeing plenty of good pitching go to waste.
New York finished a three-game sweep of the last-place Rockies with a 2-0 win on Wednesday, as the Mets won the last two in the series by identical finals.
PITCHING NOTE: Although all Run Line plays will list pitchers with the starting pitchers scheduled to go at the time of the wager, I don't care about who is starting for either team and want you playing this game regardless. Thus, please be sure you have action if one of the pitchers scheduled to start is scratched. Simply check back occasionally and in the event of a scratch, re-wager the game. This play will stand no matter what, so be sure you have action.
After all, it doesn't really matter whether or not Jorge De La Rosa or Adam Wainwright is scratched, the Cardinals are the better team and looking to wrap up the National League Central this month, after finally overcoming the Brewers in August.
That being said, it does help that Wainwright is 6-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his career against Colorado.
Play St. Louis run line tonight.
3♦ ST. LOUIS -1.5
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Baylor Bears to lay the wood to Buffalo tonight. I realize this is a LOT of points to ask anyone to lay in any type of game, but I believe they are on a mission to kick everyone's butt before they get to conference play and that showdown with Oklahoma that everyone's talking about.
Last week the Bears throttle Northwestern State, 70-6, with backup QB Seth Russell and a host of freshmen playmakers as Baylor nursed some injuries, including starting QB Bryce Petty who was suffering from a sore back.
But what has been most impressive about Baylor through two games is their defense... which has been equally up to the challenge. They allowed no points to SMU and only six last week.
Granted, Buffalo might be better than both of those offenses put together, but they still have to sustain drives and not turn the ball over. The Bulls were getting thoroughly whipped by Army last week before 4, fourth quarter TDs brought the game back to respectability.
Still, I don't think they have enough in the arsenal and I'm taking the Bears to absolutely roll the Bulls tonight in Buffalo.
3♦ BAYLOR
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Cards on the Run Line over the visiting Rockies.
Bad way for St. Louis to leave Cincinnati, as the Redbirds dropped 3 in a row to close that series, but now they are back home and facing the poor-traveling Rockies to boot.
Colorado is just 20-52 this season away from Coors Field, and they are also just 8-19 the past 27 series meetings versus St. Louis.
Throw in the fact that Cards' starter Adam Wainwright stands at 6-1 for his career with a 1.50 ERA versus the Rockies, and you can see why I think St. Louis will be able to stop their 3 game slide and take this one with ease.
Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa is just 4-8 on the road with an over 5 ERA this year, so don't fret laying the run-and-a-half with Wainwright and the Cardinals this Friday night.
4♦ ST. LOUIS -1.5
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the San Francisco Giants over the L.A. Dodgers in the series lid-lifter of a crucial three-game set between the National League West rivals.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Giants - San Francisco, which leads the NL wild-card standings, pulled within two games of the idle Dodgers with last night's 6-2 win over Arizona, the Giants' third straight victory.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the Dodgers - They're running into a buzzsaw with this series being played over a weekend and in San Francisco. The momentum is clearly on the Giants' side for this series.
In conclusion, why SAN FRANCISCO is my SMART PLAY in this game - Aside from winning three straight, the Giants have won nine straight at home. San Francisco has outscored opponents 58-14 during its home winning streak. Don't worry about listing pitchers in this one, as the price is decent enough to enjoy the value as is, and if a pitcher is scratched, at least you keep this rather low number and your action for this late start. Take Frisco.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Toronto Blue Jays in American League East action against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Jays have treated me well all week, in their series against the Cubs, and tonight I think they keep their offensive prowess going against the Rays.
Toronto, which just swept a three-game set in Tampa Bay to start the month of September, has won four straight and nine of its last 11. And over that 9-2 run, the Jays have outscored the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox and Cubs by a collective final of 64-26. In the nine wins alone, the Jays have outscored their foes, 53-13.
Meanwhile, the Rays have lost six of nine, beginning with Toronto's three-game sweep at Tropicana Field. And during it's 3-6 slide, Tampa has been outscored by a collective final of 41-30. In the six losses, the Rays have been outplated 36-20.
Toronto ranks fourth in the bigs with a .262 batting average, and also in home batting average with a .270 clip. The Jays rank third in the league with 163 home runs and at home lead the American League with a .444 slugging percentage.
I'm thinking Toronto wouldn't be a bad bet on the Run Line given the big plus-price, but I'll just lay the buck thirty-five here, and enjoy a big win.
2♦ TORONTO
Brad Wilton
Friday night comp play is the Baylor Bears minus the big number over the Buffalo Bulls.
First ever home game for Buffalo to be televised on ESPN, and I am afraid it is going to get ugly for a Bulls team that allowed both Duquesne and Army to score plenty of points against them.
True, Baylor QB Petty is injured, but his back up Russell should have no issue scoring at will on this yielding Bulls "D" if pressed into action.
The Bears shellacked the Bulls 70-13 last year in Waco to improve to 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in the 3 series meetings since 2007 between the schools.
Baylor on a 28-12 overall spread run since 2011, so rather than hope for a miracle back-door from the host, prefer to lay the lumber with the superior visitor.
1♦ BAYLOR
Jeff Scott Sports
Toledo/Cincinnati Under 58: Hard to see the scoring getting out of hand here. the Bearcats will be a very solid defensive team this year and Toledo lost a ton of skill players from last year and now are without their starting QB. Logan Woodside will make this team a bit more Pedestrian. The Bearcats haven't really settled on a starting QB and three of them should see time tonight and that may create confusion at times. Cincy will not be much of a big play offense this year as they should be more if a dink and dunk offense that uses up plenty clock on long drives. Very hard to see this one in the 50's at all.
Bob Balfe
San Diego Padres -130
Neither team has put up any offense at all the last few games, but the Padres are built for low scoring games and have by far the better bullpen. The later this game goes the more it favors the Padres. Arizona has been on a big losing streak and I only expect it to continue without any offense. Bad teams that are stuggling always seem to find themselves on the wrong end of close games.
Non Stop Sports Picks
Giants -120
This should be a great game, and the initial line movement is actually on the Dodgers here. That's okay to us, as this makes the Giants "within range" for us to fire a play on. Bumgarner has owned the Dodgers this season, while Ryu has struggled. The Giants are on fire right now, and we'll back them as a short fave!
Vegas Butcher
Washington Nationals -150
Dillon Gee has a 3.7 ERA which is lower than Gio Gonzalez’ 3.8, but not all ERA’s are created equal. When we check the advanced stats, there’s a clear difference between the two pitches:
GG: 24% K-rate; 0.7 HR/9; .298 BABIP & 72% LOB%; 3.8 ERA; 3.3/3.5/3.6 FxS
DG: 17% K-rate; 1.3 HR/9; .246 BABIP & 78% LOB%; 3.7 ERA; 4.6/4.2/4.3 FxS
As you can see Gee has a much lower K-rate, higher HR/9 rate, and of course his FxS is much higher than Gio’s. The low BABIP and higher than usual strand-rate are responsible for his ERA being surpassed, but his -0.9 E-F (12th highest in the league) indicates that regression is in order. Against Washington this year he has a 5.7 ERA with 3 HR’s and 6 BB’s in 12.2 innings of work. He’s also been worse at home than on the road according to advanced stats, though his regular H/A ERA splits don’t indicate the same. Gee has a 3.2 K/BB rate, 21% K%, and 3.7 xFIP on the road. At home, those numbers are 1.7 K/BB, 15% K%, and 4.6 xFIP. That’s a significant difference.
As far as Gonzalez is concerned, he has a 6.0 ERA against the Mets this year while giving up 16 hits and 10 ER’s in 15 innings against them. Of course we have to consider that he only allowed 1 HR to them and had a 16 K to 5 BB rate, excellent numbers. Here are his xFIP’s for the 3 games though: 2.7, 4.1, 2.9 for an average of 3.2. Clearly, he pitched much better against them than the ERA number indicates. Well, today the Mets will be without Wright (out for the year) and potentially Murphy (got hit on the wrist and had a huge welt yesterday), their two best hitters. Here’s what these 2 have done against Gonzo in their careers:
DW: .316/.440/.632 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, and 5 BB to 1 K (19 AB’s)
DM: .357/.438/.500 with 1 3B, 1 RB, and 2 BB to 3 K (14 AB’s)
With both out today, things should be much easier. And even if Murphy plays, who knows if he’ll be as effective. Overall, Mets rank 28th offensively (30th in ISO) against lefties and they’ll be even weaker if both of these hitters (instead of just Wright of course) are out tonight. Better BP, better offense, and a much better starter for the Nats today. Throw in the fact that they’re the BEST team in the National League and you have to like them even more here. Oh and consider the fact that Washington is 7-0 in NY this year and 22-4 there over the last few years, and the Nats might have a mental edge in this matchup also. I like their chances of getting it done tonight.