Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday September, 14

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Washington State/ UNLV Under 55: (Added) Gonna go with another totals play here. I just don't see how this game hit's 56 points. The UNLV Rebels' first game put up 57 points, but let's remember that only 26 of those points came in regulation. UNLV then went on to score just 14 points in their next game vs FCS foe Northern Arizona. last year the Rebels had a run first mentality as they averaged 164 ypg on the ground and just 110 ypg through the air and while they have averaged 177 ypg through the air this year they are still a run first team, averaging 174 ypg on the ground. The Rebels have run the ball 84 times in the early going compared to just 65 pass attempts and that will eat plenty of clock. Washington State was poor on defense last year, allowing 409 ypg and 32 ppg, but they have gone to a more aggressive 3-4 defense and should have little problems keeping the Rebels offense under wraps. Last year the Cougars had the 9th ranked passing offense in the nation and expectations were high for that to continue under offensive minded Mike Leach, but it just hasn't happened as the offense has struggle to grasp his schemes. The Cougars come in averaging 238 ypg passing after putting up 322 ypg last year and they have averaged just 15 ppg through their first two games as well. This is an offense still trying to work the kinks out and they should struggle again vs a Rebels defense that is much improved so far over last year. Two struggling offenses and two improved defenses will make it hard for this game to total more than 45 points.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nationals vs. BravesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington comes to Atlanta for a big series, a possible playoff preview. Atlanta is a good park for pitchers and Braves starter Kris Medlen has been an under machine, 4-0 under in Medlen's last 4 home starts. Medlen has been a marvel, starting the season in the pen to rest his arm, then has been brilliant as a starter, 8-1 overall with a 1.64 ERA. The Under is 9-3 in the Braves last 12 games against a left-handed starter and they face a sharp one in Ross Detwiler (9-6, 3.23 ERA). The under is 9-4-2 in Detwiler's last 15 road starts and the under is 21-5 in the Braves' last 26 home games. Play the Nationals/Braves under the total.

Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Cincinnati RedsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The 87-57 Reds are in Miami for game 1 of their 3 Game set with the 63-81 Marlins on Friday. Miami gives the rock to 1-3 Turner while 12-7 Arroyo gets the nod for Cincinnati. Arroyo starts this contest with a 3.66 ERA Overall giving up 72 earned runs in 177 innings pitched allowing 31 BB and recording 112 K's. On the other side of the diamond, Turner begins the day with a 6.44 ERA giving up 21 earned runs in 29.3 innings pitched allowing 8 BB and recording 21 K's. The Reds are 43-19 in their last 22 Overall Games and 39-15 in their last 54 Games as a Favorite. Also, 6-0 in Arroyos last 6 Overall Starts. The Marlins are 1-4 in their Last 5 Overall Games and 1-4 in their last 5 as Underdogs. Solid play on Arroyo and The Reds Tonight!

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Reds vs. Marlins
Play: Over 8½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a solid system here today that plays to the over for home dogs like Miami that are off a road loss and scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits, vs an opponent off a home win if the total is 7 or higher. These games have cashed to the over at a high rate the past 9 years. Miami has played over in 11 of 13 this season with a day off. The Reds are averaging over 5 runs per game over the last week. In the series 5 of the last 7 here have soared over the total. Arroyo for the Reds has gone over in 2 of the last vs Miami. Turner for the Marlins has a terrible 8.31 home era. Look for this one to go over the total here tonight.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays
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Huge series in the Bronx. CC Sabathia is getting by on grit and guile, but no disguising the fact his velocity is clearly down. David Price is apparently good to go, so I'll give the Rays a play as road dogs.

Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mets / Brewers Under 7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jon Niese takes the mound in an attempt to slow down the red hot Milwaukee Brewers, who are now within striking distance in the NL Wild Card race. Niese continues to be one of the bright spots of the season for the Mets, posting a 3.47 ERA in 13 starts. As a team, the Brewers have struck out in over 20% of their at bats against left handed pitchers this season. Niese has been extremely consistent this year and it's a nice luxury to know what to expect from a pitcher. 19 of Niese's 27 starts have been quality starts, which means he has gone at least six innings and allowed three runs or less.
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Mike Fiers has been excellent in his first full season in the Major Leagues, posting a 3.05 ERA in 19 appearances, 18 of them starts. Fiers has struck out over a batter an inning and has held opponents to a .238 batting average. The Mets are averaging just 3.2 runs per game since the All-Star break. With a small margin for error, Niese should be on his game Fiers could mow right through the Mets offense.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco vs. Arizona
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The Giants are coming off a series win against the Rockies and head to Arizona for another big three-game set. San Francisco is 10-5 over its last 15 games and thanks to another Dodgers freefall, it has increased its lead in the National League West to 7.5 games so it is very good shape to make it to the postseason. What has really carried the Giants late in the season has been their play on the road as they are 21-7 over their last 28 road games and they have a solid rotation heading into the weekend. It leads off with Matt Cain who is again having an outstanding season. His first stat in September was not a good one but he came back with a quality outing in his last game but the Giants were unable to give him much run support. The thing about it is, when he does get strong support, he has been unbeatable as he is 12-0 this season when they provide three or more runs of support. San Francisco has won his last four road starts as well. Arizona is coming off a two-game sweep against the Dodgers which has helped its playoff run as the Diamondbacks are now just 4.5 games back in the Wild Card chase. The problem is that they have five teams in front of them so getting into the postseason will take a minor miracle. The Diamondbacks are 4-9 in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record and they go with Tyler Skaggs who is coming off a rough outing in his last start. He allowed five runs in just three innings against the Padres after starting the season three solid outings. He has not been getting much support from the offense as he has received only 2.8 rpg including 2.5 rpg in two home starts. Getting any more than that tonight will be a surprise against Cain and the Giants are 39-17 in their last 56 road games against left-handed starters.

MLB Predictions

Chicago Cubs +135

The Pirates have lost 6 straight after being swept by the Reds, and playoffs aren't looking to good for Pittsburgh right now. They've scored 3 runs or less in all 6 losses. The Cubs have won 5 of their last 6 games, scoring 4+ runs in all 5 wins. Over that 6 game span they've held opponents to just 10 runs. James McDonald has a 5.87 ERA over his last 3, 5.40 ERA on the road overall this year, and 6.91 ERA post All Star break. Chris Rusin has made 3 starts in the Majors and he is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA, but two of his three starts were actually solid starts where he combined for just 2 earned runs over 10 innings of work. He has yet to pitch at home, and after allowing just 1 earned run against the Pirates in his last start in Pittsburgh I wouldn't be surprised to see him have another good outing. Pittsburgh is just 9-23 in their last 32 games overall. Take the Cubs as good sized home underdogs this afternoon.

SPORTS WAGERS

UNLV +8½ -110 over Washington St.

What we have here is a grossly inflated number due to UNLV’s 0-2 record this season and 0-5 record to close out last year. However, the Rebels could just as easily be 2-0 this season after narrow losses to Northern Arizona and a triple OT loss to Minnesota in their opener.

The Cougars are 1-1 but that’s flattering after a 30-6 beating at the hands of BYU in their first game and a subsequent 24-20 win over Eastern Washington in week 2. Not only did WSU narrowly escape disaster as a 13-point choice over Eastern Washington, the defense allowed nearly 500 yards of offense and its own offense did not score in the second half. That was not a good showing at home in front of the school’s first opening day sellout in 60 years. The Cougars defense has been awful thus far. This intruder is nowhere close to being a PAC-12 contender and until that defense is cleaned up, they certainly don’t warrant being priced like this while on the road. Not to mention, the offense hasn’t exactly been great shakes either.

The Rebels are on the verge of a win. Despite the winless start, the team is playing with a lot more confidence. They were whacked last season by this same bunch, 59-7 and the sting of that loss is definitely something that has been in the forefront of their minds. They will give a much better showing here with an outright win not being out of the question. The 8½-points in which we have to work with has us confidently backing the home side.

Pass MLB

DAVID BANKS

Washington St / UNLV Over 55

Two teams coming off of disappointing efforts vs. FCS competition square off on ESPN Friday night when the Washington State Cougars (1-1, 0-2 ATS) visit the UNLV Runnin' Rebels (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, NV at 9:00 ET. Washington State just barely got by Eastern Washington 24-20 as a 12-point favorite last week and probably lost its starting quarterback in the process, while UNLV lost outright to Northern Arizona here at home as 13-point chalk.

The flamboyant and often controversial Mike Leach has taken over head coach of Wazzou this season, but he is quickly discovering that the talent pool in Pullman is not like he had at Texas Tech, where even mediocre quarterbacks were able to put up enormous numbers in his pass-happy system with his teams topping 40 points quite often. Leach lost his debut at Washington State 30-6 vs. BYU on opening week with the Cougars accumulating only 224 total yards, and then his initial Pac-12 win did not come easy vs. a seemingly outclassed opponent and it also came with a cost. The Cougars were outgained by Eastern Washington by 114 yards and starting quarterback Jeff Tuel passed for only 171 yards. However, Tuel then had to leave the game in the fourth quarter after suffering a knee injury, and he was replaced by sophomore Connor Halliday, who completed only 5-of-11 passes for 76 yards. The latest news of all is that Tuel is likely to miss this contest, with Halliday getting the start. At least Halliday has some experience, as he did see action as a freshman last season, passing for 960 yards while actually averaging a very good 9.3 yards per pass attempt, throwing nine touchdown passes vs. four interceptions.

The Rebels were competitive in their season opener, losing in overtime to the Minnesota Gophers out of the Big Ten, but that result was rather fluky when you consider that UNLV was outgained by 203 yards. The Rebels then followed that up with the debacle vs. Northern Arizona where they lost on a field goal with 10 seconds left. That runs their losing streak to seven straight games dating back to last season, and that is despite this week's game marking their third straight home contest to begin this season. The loss last week also marked the second straight year that UNLV lost to a non-FBS school, although this defeat was not quite as embarrassing as the 41-16 blowout loss it suffered at the hands of Southern Utah last season, also here at home. Just about the lone bright spot for the Rebels in the first two games has been the running of Tim Cornett, who as rushed for 268 yards while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. However, they have gotten weak quarterback play from Nick Sherry, who has completed only 50.0 percent of his passes while averaging a low 5.5 yards per attempt, with three interceptions against just one touchdown thrown.

Washington State crushed UNLV 59-7 back in Pullman last year in the first meeting between these schools in 20 years. The Rebels are a dismal 19-44-1 ATS in their last 64 games following a straight up loss, but the Cougars are only 5-13 ATS in their last 18 September games.

Ian CameronFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Winnipeg at CalgaryFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 52FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both of these teams have shown glimpses of playing solid defense this season but I think we'll see them step up their game tonight and help us cash a ticket on the UNDER.
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The Winnipeg offense is ranked dead last in points and yards and they've only averaged 15 points on the road. QB Joey Elliott labored in his one and only road start in Saskatchewan as the Blue Bombers offense was shutout in that game. I'd expect some improvement from them here but at the same time I don't expect this team to be scoring points in bunches against a Calgary defense that has come on strong during their current three-game win streak. They surrendered just 10, 23 and 18 points in those games as we've seen the likes of LB Juwan Simpson and DL Charleston Hughes lead the way with dominant performances.
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I don't expect Calgary to have as much success moving the football in this game either. The Stamps are off back-to-back wins against their rival Edmonton and usually we see offenses take a hit from a performance standpoint in what is somewhat of a flat spot. QB Kevin Glenn needs a strong running game with RB Jon Cornish for him to be productive. He's not a guy that can win games by himself. Winnipeg did a good job of grounding Cornish though in both head-to-head meetings last year. The Winnipeg defensive line matches up decent with Calgary up front because the Stamps’ OL is probably the biggest in the CFL from a size perspective but Winnipeg has one of the bigger defensive fronts in the league so the going might be a bit tougher for Cornish. That means Glenn may be asked to do more in this game and I don't think that is necessarily a good thing for Calgary's offense.
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Calgary has gone 4-1 to the UNDER at home this season. Winnipeg hasn't seen any of their last three games eclipse 52 points due to a combo of offensive struggles and a defense that is a lot healthier now than it was early in the season. I think we've got enough room to work with in what should play out to be a lower scoring game.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants -130
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The San Francisco Giants are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Arizona Diamondbacks Friday. Rarely will you get ace Matt Cain at this kind of price, and we'll take advantage tonight.
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Cain is 13-5 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 28 starts this season. He'll be up against Arizona's Tyler Skaggs, who is 1-1 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.327 WHIP in four starts this season. Skaggs gave up five earned runs over three innings at San Diego in his last start.
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Cain is 11-6 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 25 career starts against Arizona. In his last start against the Diamondbacks, Cain gave up one earned run over six innings with eight strikeouts in a 5-2 Giants' victory at Arizona.
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Arizona is 1-9 in home games after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season. The Giants are 44-13 in their last 57 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Diamondbacks are 2-8 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Giants Friday.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants -130
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The Giants have the edge on the mound with Matt Cain, who is 13-5 with a 2.96 ERA. The Giants have won 5 of his last 6 starts, including each of his last 4 on the road. He has held the opposition to 2 runs or fewer in 5 of his last 6 starts. San Francisco is also 8-3 in Cain's last 11 starts versus the Diamondbacks.
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Arizona's Tyler Skaggs doesn't inspire as much confidence. The Snakes have dropped each of his last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 5.27.
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The Giants are an impressive 21-7 in their last 28 road games, and I expect them to build on this run behind a strong outing from Cain.

Dave EsslerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox -1.5 -120FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'll take my chances here that the fact that Sale shuts down a lineup that's probably going to be without both Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit, both of whom are listed as doubtful. Vasquez was lit up at Kansas City, which is not terribly surprising, but even against the Indians he lasted only three innings. Road team RL plays to me are somewhat more attractive because you're always guaranteed the ninth at bat, and obviously the White Sox are playing for everything, as it's possible that the loser of the AL Central race may not even be a Wild Card team. So, for short money this is a price I'm willing to pay for the two (or more) run victory as we have and never will lay -180 (or more) on a road team.