Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 16,2011

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

CONNECTICUT -4.5 over Iowa State: Tough spot here for the Cyclones as they are off BB games vs In-state rivals N. Iowa and Iowa and they have Texas on deck. This team is in a rebuilding year and it showed in game 1 as they were outgained by 57 yards and won by just 1 point vs FCS foe Northern Iowa. They did play much better vs Iowa in their 3 OT thriller, but this tea still is in a rebuilding year. The offense will not have the same success that they did last week, as this Uconn defense is tough, allowing just 214 ypg through their first 2 games. The defense is the strength of this team, with 9 starters back, and it has showed. Uconn came into the year needing to replace RB Todman and QB Frazer and they have struggled on offense in the early going, but they should get it going tonight vs an Iowa State defense that has allowed 375 ypg so far and really hasn't played that well. Uconn is at home and they are 10-2 ATS at home off a SU & ATS loss, while HC Paul Rhodes is 0-3 ATS of a SU dog win. I see the Uconn defense controlling this game as they bounce back from last weeks tough loss.

Jim Feist

Marlins at Nationals
Pick: Marlins

Florida has been a money-burner at home, but they have a winning road record. The Marlins are 6-1 in Javier Vazquez's last 7 road starts. Vazquez has found the fountain of youth in the second half of this season, on a roll at 3-0 with a 0.45 ERA his last three starts, walking 3 and fanning 20! Vazquez picked up his tenth win of the season with a start reminiscent of his glory days, going six shutout, three-hit innings. Meanwhile the Nationals are 1-5 in John Lannan's last 6 starts, 2-5 in his last 7 home starts. He has a 2-4 record and a 5.48 ERA against Florida, as well. Play the Marlins!

Scott Spreitzer

Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have won six of Matt Garza's last eight starts and the righty has pitched quite well. He's allowed just 14 earned runs in those eight outings, to go along with 53 strikeouts in 51 1/3 innings. That's a smoking, 2.46 ERA with a 9.30 Ks/9 IP mark. Garza owns a sub-3.00 ERA in 12 daytime starts this season and he's had little trouble with the Houston Astros in three outings. But despite posting strong numbers against Houston, he's yet to pick up a win against them. I believe he'll do so today against an Astro team that's won just 17 of their last 59 road games. Houston is also on a 12-26 slide when Wandy Rodriguez toes the road rubber. The lefty is 0-2 against the North Siders this season with an ERA above 5.00. And he's not been nearly as effective in daytime action as he has been when the sun goes down. The Cubs are on a 5-1 run against starting pitchers with a WHIP above 1.30 and I expect another win, behind Garza, in this one. I'm laying the price with Chicago on Friday afternoon.

Vegas Experts

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies

The amazing winning streak of the Phillies' Vance Worley came to an end last start with a 3-2 loss at Milwaukee. Prior to that loss, Philly had won 14 consecutive starts made by Worley. He has a 9-1 team start record at home this season. Worley also remains a devastating 9-0 in 13 night starts (12-1 TSR) with a 1.59 ERA. The Cards Jaime Garcia has cooled off considerably since a hot start and the Phillies are 30-10 vs. left-handed starters this season.

Play on: Philadelphia

Matt Fargo

Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs

We played and won against the Cubs last night but we will back them this afternoon at Wrigley Field as they return home following their sweep in Cincinnati. Matt Garza takes the hill and he has been pitching very well of late. He has allowed three runs or fewer in eight straight starts, posting a 2.45 ERA over that stretch with six of those starts being quality outings. He has a 2.64 ERA at home in 15 starts with 11 of those resulting in quality performances including a gem in his only start against the Astros this year. Houston had the day off Wednesday following a loss in Philadelphia which gave the Phillies a playoff berth. Wandy Rodriguez looks to continue his solid pitching but this is a tough spot. He has thrown three straight quality outings as well as six of his last seven but the wins aren't coming. Houston is 7-8 in his 15 road starts including a loss in Chicago in his only start at Wrigley Field this season. Rodriguez has made nine daytime starts and Houston is 2-7 in those games. 3* Chicago Cubs

Ray Monohan

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

The race for the postseason in Major League Baseball is upon us, and the action is really starting to heat up in the American League as Boston are losing their grip on the wild card, and the team that is chasing them, Tampa Bay, will visit Fenway Park on Friday for the second in a four-game set. A pair of aces will be on the mound, so this should be an intriguing matchup to check out. James Shields (15-10, 2.70) vs. Josh Beckett (12-5, 2.49. Shields has been incredible for the Rays since the beginning of August, the 29-year-old has split four starts against the Red Sox this year, posting a 2.87 ERA, and he allowed three runs over eight innings in a loss in Boston in the middle of August. For Boston Beckett is back. The 31-year-old is 1-0 in two starts against the Rays this season, and he hasn’t allowed a run in 17.0 innings of innings, scattering a pair of hits while striking out 12 and walking none. BOS are 6-2 in Becketts last 8 home starts vs. TB. The intensity in an episode of WWE Smackdown won’t hold a candle to this East showdown. It won’t be a high-scoring affair, Under is 20-7-1 in Becketts last 28 starts overall, so strongly consider the under here too. Take Boston.

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona D-Backs vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres

The Padres fit a solid 19-1 system that plays on home teams that are off a road loss and had 4 or less hits and no more than 1 error, vs an opponent off a road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs , also with 1 or less error. We don't play games based just on a system. Arizona does have some angles on their side in this one. However the system is strong enough to at the very least make the Padres a free play. The Pitching also favors the Padres as they have Stauffer going tonight. Stauffer has a fine 2.76 home era and went 6+ shut out innings in his only home start vs Arizona. Miley makes the start for Arizona and he has a 4.80 era over his last 3 start and allowed 5 runs in 5 innings vs San Diego earlier in the season. The Padres have a better home bullpen era than Arizona has on the road as well. SO we will back the Padres. On Friday I have the 15-1 College Football Power System Side and the AL Game of the Month from a 90% Power System and out ream has Several strong angles backing them. College Football cashed with LSU last night and was 24 games over. 500 last season. Jump on and start what I expect to be a solid weekend of High end system winners on the right sides. For the Free play take The Padres.

EZWINNERS

Connecticut Huskies -4

I think this is a great spot for UCONN. Iowa State comes into this game with a 2-0 record after barely surviving against Northern Iowa in their home opener 20-19 and then beating their biggest rival Iowa at home 44-41. The Iowa game is always a very emotional game and I can see the Cyclones having a hard time getting up for this game against a non conference opponent playing on the east coast on a Friday night. The Iowa State offense is very young and has been able to run the ball pretty well in their first two games, but I don't see them having much success on the ground against a UCONN defense that is allowing just 2.2 yards per carry so far this season. On the other side of the ball I do expect the Huskies to be able to run with running back Lyle McCombs who has rushed for 259 yards with four touchdowns in the first two games. McCombs should have another big night against an ISU defense that has allowed over 360 rushing yards in two games. Iowa State is just 1-10 against the spread in their last eleven road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and UCONN is on a 20-9 run against the spread. Lay the points.

David Banks

Boise State / Toledo Over

This week’s Friday night lights telecast takes us to the new and improved Glass Bowl where the Toledo Rockets will look to stick within the lofty pointspread against QB Kellen Moore and the 4th ranked Boise State Broncos; kick-off is slated for 8:00 ET on ESPN.

The Broncos were out of the national spotlight last week with Coach Chris Petersen’s squad having the week off after taking care of business against the Georgia Bulldogs in their season opener. Not even the quasi home field advantage the Dawgs had in the Georgia Dome was enough to topple the Broncos who escaped Atlanta with the 35-21 road win and cover (-3). The victory improved Boise State to an impressive 28-5 SU as a visitor, including bowls, the L/5 seasons. Their high powered offense had no problem ripping through an SEC defense as Moore threw for 261 yards and three TDs, with the combo of RBs Doug Martin and DJ Harper combining to rush for 101 yards and a pair of TDs. The Broncos are 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS their L/12 non-conference match-ups.

With 18 starters back from last year squad that went 8-5 SU and was barely nipped in the Little Caesar’s Bowl by Florida international, the Toledo Rockets are expected to be a MAC Championship contender this season. Coach Tim Beckman’s kids proved its weight in salt last week when it went into the Horseshoe and gave the Ohio State Buckeyes all they could ask for and more as enormous 17.5-point underdogs. The Rockets led 8-7 and 15-7 before going into the break down six, but retook the lead minutes into the 3rd quarter before ultimately giving up the final and deciding TD late in the 3rd. The two headed QB attack of Austin Dantin and Terrance Owens performed admirably combining to throw for 292 yards, but the ground attack was stymied. This unit will have to hit on all cylinders throughout the entirety of this game if it expects to keep up with the offensive dynamo that is Boise State.

These teams battled on the “Smurf Turf” for the first time last season where the Broncos simply creamed the Rockets; Boise was up by 50 heading into the 4th and ultimately came out on top by a 57-14 final tally to just barely cover the whopping 38-point closing spread. Boise State has been an ATM machine for its backers for a number of years now: 7-1 ATS L/8 September games, 17-8 ATS L/25 when favored, 8-3 ATS L/11 as road chalk, and 3-0 ATS L/3 vs. the MAC. As for Toledo, it’s 7-3 ATS in L/10 September match-ups and 4-1 ATS L/5 off a SU loss, but just 1-5 ATS the L/6 when getting 16 or more points. The ‘over’ has cashed at a 5-1 clip in Toledo’s L/6 home games as well as the L/6 times it went off the board dogged.

Dennis Macklin

Mets vs. Braves
Play: Over 8

The Over is 11-5 in the Mets L16 games and that trend figures to continue here. Chris Capuano can be pretty much counted on to give up five runs. His ERA is 4.49 in 28 starts, 5.35 in 13 road starts, 5.06 in his L3 starts. He's given up 26 baserunners in his L16 innings of work. The Braves Derek Lowe pretty much has the same MO. He rocks a 4.59 ERA overall, 4.32 at home, 5.29 in his L3. He has a 5.49 ERA in 14 LT starts against the Mets and has allowed 28 baserunners in his L17 innings. You may want to think about over on the five inning total too.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

CONNECTICUT -4.5 over Iowa State: Tough spot here for the Cyclones as they are off BB games vs In-state rivals N. Iowa and Iowa and they have Texas on deck. This team is in a rebuilding year and it showed in game 1 as they were outgained by 57 yards and won by just 1 point vs FCS foe Northern Iowa. They did play much better vs Iowa in their 3 OT thriller, but this tea still is in a rebuilding year. The offense will not have the same success that they did last week, as this Uconn defense is tough, allowing just 214 ypg through their first 2 games. The defense is the strength of this team, with 9 starters back, and it has showed. Uconn came into the year needing to replace RB Todman and QB Frazer and they have struggled on offense in the early going, but they should get it going tonight vs an Iowa State defense that has allowed 375 ypg so far and really hasn't played that well. Uconn is at home and they are 10-2 ATS at home off a SU & ATS loss, while HC Paul Rhodes is 0-3 ATS of a SU dog win. I see the Uconn defense controlling this game as they bounce back from last weeks tough loss.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +130 over BOSTON

Rays have all the momentum going into game two of this series. They’ve cut the deficit to three games after last night’s 9-2 win and have won an important six straight games this month over the Red Sox while outscoring them 41-12. Ouch. The pitching matchup might also favor the Rays and if it doesn’t, it’s damn close. Josh Beckett is a big game pitcher that’s having another great year, however, he’s been off for two weeks after spraining his ankle and a two-week layoff this time of year can’t be a good thing. Meanwhile James Shields is the on a serious roll. Shields’ has allowed three runs over his last 34.1 innings while winning his last four starts. He has 210 k’s in 226 innings, a 2.70 ERA and a WHIP of 1.01. In 30 starts, Shields has been masterful in 24 of them. Boston certainly has the better offense but they’re feeling some pressure, they’re slumping badly with 12 losses in last 16 games and the Rays are coming hard. Play: Tampa Bay +130 (Risking 2 units).

KANSAS CITY –114 over Chicago

One really has to wonder what will motivate the White Sox to do anything but get this season over with ASAP. Off all the teams in the majors, the South Side is the least motivated of them all. Chicago is coming off a series against Detroit in which they were buried and followed that up with a 7-2 loss last night here. They’ve now lost five straight and 11 of 16 while the Royals have won five straight. K.C. is having fun and they’re enjoying coming to the park and that gives them a huge edge over a completely uninterested South Side club. Philip Humber is 2-0 in his last two starts with 13 k’s and no walks after a brief stint on the DL. However, he faced the Twinkies and Indians. Prior to that he surrendered four runs or more in five straight in which Chicago lost them all. Felipe Paulino has three wins on the year. Incredible for a guy that deserves better. Paulino is coming off an 11-strikeout, zero walk performance against Seattle. The game before that he walked six in 4.1 innings. That was uncharacteristic of Paulino, as he’s walked just 48 batters all year in 122 frames. Increased groundball % in 2011 is another positive step in trying to ascertain how projectable Paulino really is. His xERA of 3.70 is much better than is actual ERA of 4.49. He's already a solid mid-to-upper tier starter on skills alone and he could easily shine again here against this unmotivated guest. Play: Kansas City –114 (Risking 2.28 units to win 2).

HAMILTON -5 over Edmonton

TiCats coming off a beating at the hands of the Als and it was one that Montreal wanted badly after losing twice to Hamilton earlier. Edmonton is coming off back-to-back games against rival Stamps and ended up winning 35-7 in first game while falling 30-20 last week. The Eskies have played pretty good football on the road (3-2) and after a rough stretch in which they suffered many key injuries, Edmonton is slowly returning to health. However, Hamilton is 4-1 at home with only loss coming in season opener against Winnipeg. That means they’ve won four straight at home and they surely haven’t forgotten earlier loss in Edmonton by a 28-10 count. Edmonton has major problems running the ball while the TiCats well-balanced attack is much more potent. The only thing that has us backing off this play is that Edmonton is on seven days rest while the Tabbies are on just five days rest. Play: Hamilton –5 (No bets).

Passing NCAAF

Jack Jones

Texas Rangers -1.5 (-122)

The Texas Rangers have really turned it on of late when they've needed to most. Just as the Los Angeles Angels were sneaking up on them, Texas decided to kick it into overdrive. The Rangers have won four straight games, outscoring their opponents 34-10 in the process. They've won all four games by three runs or more. I don't see the Seattle Mariners putting up much resistance tonight.

Seattle has lost four of their last five games to drop to 62-87 on the season. Texas has absolutely owned the Mariners this season, winning 10 of 13 meetings. The Rangers have a huge edge on the mound tonight, which is the main reason I feel they are going to win by two runs or more.

Ace C.J. Wilson is 16-6 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 31 starts this season, 8-4 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.106 WHIP in 15 road starts, and 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in his last three outings. He has pitched 17 shutout innings over his last two starts, and the Rangers have won each of his last three starts by five runs or more.

Blake Beavan is 4-5 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.312 WHIP in 12 starts this season for Seattle, including 3-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in seven home starts. Wilson is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last three starts against the Mariners, and the Rangers have won all three of those games by three runs or more. Texas is 7-2 in Wilson's 9 career starts against Seattle. Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Friday.

Steve Janus

Detroit Tigers -129

The Tigers had their 12-game winning streak snapped on Thursday. I look for them to bounce right back with a win on Friday, especially since the magic number is at one for the division crown. While the Tigers could win the division even with a loss, I expect them to come out and make sure they get the win.

Detroit will send out Doug Fister, who the A's know very well from his days with the Mariners. Detroit acquired Fister from Seattle on July 30th, and he has really been a big part of why they ran away with the division. Fister is 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA in his eight starts, and should have no trouble keeping it going against the A's. Fister is 4-3 with a 2.77 ERA against Oakland. Don't worry about his record. All of those starts came while with Seattle and their worthless offense.

Detroit is 20-8 in their last 28 games as a road favorite, 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, and 5-0 in Fister's last 5 starts. BET THE TIGERS!