Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 17,2010

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
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The Mariners open a three-game series with the Rangers in Seattle this evening when they send ace right-hander Felix Hernandez to the hill. Hernandez enters tonight's contest in great current form at 5-2 with a 1.04 ERA in his last seven overall starts. He is also 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last three home starts, including five walks and 30 strikeouts in this games, and 4-0 in his last four home team starts during the month of September. Don't want to fade numbers like those, and we won't. Stay at home with the King here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Seattle.

Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Indians at Royals
Play: Under
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Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco has allowed 5 runs total in his 3 starts this year. The Indians are 34-16-2 UNDER their last 52 games vs. righty starters. Cleveland is 41-18-3 UNDER off a win. The Tribe are 6-0 UNDER their 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. Kansas City starter Kyle Davies has allowed just 5 runs total in his last 3 starts. The Royals are 12-3-1 UNDER with Davies as a home underdog and they are 10-1-2 UNDER in Davies last 13 starts when their opponent allowed 2 runs or less in their last game.

VEGAS EXPERTSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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California at Nevada
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Not sure why Cal is favored here, although it probably has something to do with a 52-7 win over Colorado last week. However, a look 'inside the numbers' reveals that the Bears were +5 in the turnover department in that game. Cal is just 12-27 ATS in the road favorite role, including 3-16 ATS when laying seven or less and 0-7 ATS when laying three or less. Look for an outright upset tonight on ESPN2.

Play on: Nevada

Charlie ScottFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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California vs. Nevada
Play: California -2.5
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While Nevada's pistol offense and QB Colin Kaepernick are fun to watch, whenever they step up in class they lose and they lose big. Last Season they lost 0-35 at Notre Dame and 21-31 vs Missouri in Reno, add the Wolfpack have lost their last 4 Bowl games s/u. Cal on the other side of the ball has big time BCS talent and can compete in the Pac 10 except for the big games vs USC and Oregon. This line is too low !

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Texas Rangers
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If Felix Hernandez does not win the A.L. Cy Young Award, he can thank the Texas Rangers. Hernandez is 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA in four starts against the A.L. West’s leading team this season. He has given up 18 runs and 31 hits in 24 innings pitched against Texas. The righty is coming off a losing effort in Anaheim against the Angels where he gave up seven runs and six hits in 6.3 innings of work. Michael Young (21-66), Vlad Guerrero (16-56), David Murphy (11-42), Nelson Cruz (9-30), Elvis Andrus (10-28), Chris Davis (6-23), Julio Borbon (4-15), Matt Treanor (2-4), and Andres Blanco (1-3) all hit Hernandez well. Texas has won seven straight games while hitting .318 as a team over that span. Their potent offense is putting up 7.3 runs per game over their last seven games as well. They are 5-1 in Seattle this season and 14-10 over the past three seasons. The Mariners bullpen is 9-11 with a 4.00 ERA at home this season.
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C.J. Wilson has been a pleasant surprise for the Rangers this season. He is 14-6 with a 3.30 ERA in 29 starts. The lefty is 4-4 with a 3.09 ERA on the road, and Wilson has yet to lose to Seattle this season going 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA in three starts. Casey Kotchman (0-8), Russell Branyan (0-6), Michael Saunders (1-5), Josh Wilson (1-4), Ryan Langerhans (0-3), and Matt Tuiasosopo (0-2) all struggle with Wilson. Seattle is 12-31 against left-handed starters while hitting just .234 as a team against them. The Mariners have lost seven straight games while scoring just 18 runs over that span. Texas also has the bullpen edge in this game as they are 11-6 with a 3.20 ERA on the road. Since Texas is in much better form, we’ll recommend a play on the Rangers over the Mariners tonight.

BIG ALFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Cubs @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Chicago Cubs
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If the Marlins can finish the season where they are now, which is in third place in the NL East Division, and with at least a .500 record, then this club can certainly consider 2010 a success, even though they will playing golf instead of baseball come October. There is hardly a team in the Majors with an injury/suspension list as long as the one associated with this team over the past several weeks. They are without two outfielders right now - Maybin (flu) and Coghlin (out for the season with a knee injury) - and starting catcher John Baker, which doesn't seem so bad, but over on the pitching side it looks like a war zone with no fewer than three regular rotation members out for the remainder of the season with injuries. Add to this the substance-related suspension of catcher Ronnie Paulino and the brawl-related suspensions of two more starters, and you have to wonder if they've been pulling people out of the stands to field their team lately. One of the starters coming back from the suspension is tonight's starter, righthander Alex Sanabia and between the long layoff and the fact that the he's never faced the Cubs before, it's pretty hard to tell how he'll do tonight. But Cubs righthander Ryan Dempster is familiar with two things: Pitching against the Marlins (he's 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA in 27 career innings against them), and pitching in their park as he was a member of the team for five seasons, and has a very strong .629 win percentage there (22-13). Take Chicago.

Scott RickenbachFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Indians @ Royals
PICK: Under 8.5
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It doesn’t seem to matter how many hits they get, how many base runners they get, how many golden opportunities they get with men in scoring position…the Indians just can’t score runs right now. However, their pitching has bailed them out too and that is why the Indians have managed to go 6-6 in their last 12 games even though they have averaged just 2.25 runs per game during this horrific stretch at the plate.
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The Indians have a 12-0 run to the over intact as they enter Friday night’s match-up at Kansas City and we simply must test the 12-0 run here after some of the horrific failures we’ve seen at the plate recently for the Indians when they’ve had key run-scoring opportunities. As for the Royals, they enter this game on a 4-3 run to the over but note that Kansas City has allowed 4 runs or less in 6 of those 7 games. Also, before Kyle Davies most recent start went over the total, the Royals were 5-2 to the under in Davies’ last seven starts! Let’s test this 12-0 run on Indians unders! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Kansas City on Friday night!

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cubs vs. Marlins
Play: Over 8
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Florida has been a strong team over the total in the second half of the season, with a decent offense and wilting pitching. And speaking of wilting pitching, the Cubs come to town with Ryan Dempster, who has a 6.14 ERA his last three starts. The team went 2-1 over the total in those starts, including losses of 18-5 and 14-7. Alex Sanabia of the Marlins is no ace, with a 4.67 ERA his last three starts and Florida is 5-2 over the total his last 5 starts. Look for an offensive show, Play the Marlins/Cubs Over the total.

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Nevada Wolfpack +3
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This line seems to be begging for action on Cal, but I like the Wolfpack in this spot. The Cal Bears head into Nevada as the #24 ranked team in the nation, but I'm not sure the Bears are deserving of that ranking. They have out scored their two opponents 104-10 but they have played two very bad teams at home in the process. The Nevada Wolfpack is also 2-0 and they are lead by dual-threat senior quarterback Colin Kaepernick. I see the Bears defense having a hard time containing Kaepernick and running back Vai Taua. This Nevada team is mostly known for their running abilities, Kaepernick possess a very strong arm and a capable receiving squad that can strike Cal if they have to load up the box to stop the run. The Nevada defense is the weakness of the team, but if they can successfully stop the Cal running game I will take my chances with Cal quarterback Kevin Riley, who is also known for his running abilities, who has been a very inconsistent passer during his time under center for the Golden Bears. California is only 6-13 against the spread in their last nineteen road games. Take the points with the home dog.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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HOUSTON –1.01 over CincinnatiFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Johnny Cueto has a 1.67 ERA over his last four starts but a close look reveals that he breezed through the lineups of the Pirates, Cubbies and Brewers. His one average start over that aforementioned stretch came against the Rockies and he was also hit very hard recently against the Dodgers. St. Louis and Atlanta. Against that trio from July 31 to Aug 20 (he served his suspension during that stretch and missed two starts) in the span of 21 days, Cueto allowed 22 hits and 14 earned runs in 13.1 innings for an ERA of 9.33. Also note his high strand rate of 83% over his last five starts and that he’s thrown a fifth (33) of his total innings this season against the Pirates. Pittsburgh is largely responsible for a big portion of Cueto’s solid numbers because he’s allowed just 15 hits against them and just four runs. Throw the Pirates out of the equation and his numbers head south. Furthermore, the Reds are laboring badly. They have just five wins over its last 13 games with four of those wins coming against the Pirates ands D-Backs. Incidentally, three of those four games they could have easily lost, as two of them against the Pirates went into extra frames and one win against the D-Backs was about an inch away from going to extra frames when Jay Bruce leaped at the fence and made a spectacular catch at the wall to seal it. The Reds were swept recently by the Rocks, they lost two of three to the Cards, they barely beat the Pirates in Cincinnati and they split four games with the D-Backs, also in Cinci. Wandy Rodriguez has gone 4-1 with a 1.30 ERA in his last 10 starts, pitching at least seven innings eight times. He also has a 2.99 xERA during this period, so this is no surface stat fluke. The man is on fire and so are the Astros. If the season started in June, Houston would have about a 10-game division lead and there is just no way the Astros should be a pooch in this spot. Wrong side favored. Play: Houston –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
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Colorado –1 –1.05 over LOS ANGELESFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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You can lay the 1½-runs if laying a single run is not an option for you, as it’s hard to envision the Dodgers competing here. First, they threw in the towel about a month ago and perhaps more than any team in the majors, they can’t wait for this season to finally end. The Dodgers are batting a pathetic .174 over its last 10 games and they’re dead last in the majors in every offensive category over the last month. Now they’re being asked to face Ubaldo Jiminez, a great pitcher that they’ve yet to see this season. One has to wonder how they’ll get a hit, let alone a run. The Rockies are pumped up and raring to go. The Dodgers couldn’t care less and that fact alone makes the Rocks a solid play here. Incidentally, in three games this year versus Colorado, Hiroki Kuroda has allowed 25 hits and 11 ER in 16.1 innings for an ERA of 6.06. In his career against the Rocks he’s 0-3 after allowing 49 hits and 25 ER in 34 frames for an ERA of 6.55. This is both a psychological and pitching mismatch. Play: Colorado –1 –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
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Detroit +1.21 over CHICAGOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Speaking of teams on a low and one need not look further than the South Side. Any hopes of reaching the post-season are now gone after the Twins swept the White Sox. The season is all but officially over for Chicago but they’ll have to come to the park again tonight and face Max Scherzer. Scherzer has developed into the anchor of many starting rotations given these 2H results: 1.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP. While his 3.67 xERA suggests he hasn't been this good, his skills have been elite. Reports are that he has improved his change-up, giving him three legit out pitches. After a scorching August, Edwin Jackson has regressed badly in two September starts. He allowed 13 hits in just five innings in his last start against the Royals and prior to that these same Tigers also hit him pretty hard. Jackson has had enough ups and downs in his career to make us skeptical of any short-term hot streak and once again he’s reverted to that trend of inconsistency. Focus and preparation appears to be an issue for this guy and after a long season in which he’s suffered a whole slew of ups and downs, he, too, just like his teammates, may have psychologically checked out for the year. The South Side has dropped seven of its last nine games and looked pretty ugly in doing so. Play: Detroit +1.21 (Risking 2 units).

JOEL TYSON

As for Friday's comp release, going to lay the small chalk with the Golden Bears of Cal, as I am not a big believer in this Wolf Pack team in "step up" games.

Nevada has wet the bed to a tune of 0-8 straight up their last 8 games played against BCS-conference opponents, and the points haven't realy helped either, as they have failed in 6 of the last 7 in that situation!

Cal is another team that usually stumbles during the course of the season, but the Bears stumbles usually come a little further on down the road, as they are 20-4 straight up under head coach Jeff Tedford in the first 3 games of the season since 2002.

Both schools have been scoring in bunches early on this season, but I see more upside in backing Cal QB Riley and his deep receiving corps to deliver the knockout punch in Reno tonight.

California improves with the win and cover.

1♦ CALIFORNIA

Stephen Nover

I won my fourth straight free baseball selection, cashing in on the Twins last night against the White Sox. This pushed my baseball free pick hot streak to 69-49-2.

Before I get to the analysis on tonight's comp winner, make note that I have a 40-Dime package waiting for you right now, highlighted by my 25-Dime American League West Game of the Month between Seattle and Texas. I'm also coming right back with another 15-Dime College Winner, on the heels of last night's winner on N.C. State.

The name Kyle Lohse and an 'over/under' of less than 8 should never be in the same sentence let alone a betting menu. But since that's the case in today's San Diego-St. Louis matchup, it's time to cash on the over.

Lohse was brutal before he got hurt and he's been brutal since returning from the DL. In five starts since coming off the DL, Lohse has surrendered 39 hits in 23 2/3 innings. Lohse has yet to face San Diego this season, but he went up against the Padres twice last year and had a 7.71 ERA versus them.

The Padres are a much better hitting team on the road away from Petco Park. They entered this series averaging 5.6 runs in their last 13 road games.

The total is low here because Matt Latos is pitching for San Diego. He's been fantastic, but the Padres have expressed concerns about his high innings count. Those concerns were justified in Latos' last start. He gave up five runs on seven hits in four innings against the Giants this past Sunday.

Latos is nearing the 170-inning count on the season. He pitched less than 51 innings in the majors last year. So Latos very well could be hitting the wall.

2♦ SAN DIEGO/ST. LOUIS OVER

BOBBY MAXWELL

For my free play, what is somebody supposed to make of Kansas? The Jayhawks lost at home to North Dakota State 6-3 in the opener then they bounced back by beating defending ACC champion Georgia Tech, 28-25.

They are somewhere in-between those two extremes, but they will have enough to go to Southern Mississippi tonight and at least get the cover if not the outright win. First-year coach Turner Gill switched QBs after the opening loss, going with freshman QB Jordan Webb who completed 18 of 29 passes for 179 yards and three TDs.

Offensively, RB James Sims showed up in his second game, rushing for 101 yards on 17 carries as a true freshman against Georgia Tech. Defensively, the Jayhawks have been very impressive this season. Holding the Yellowjackets to just 25 points is a strong effort and LB Justin Springer had 15 tackles to go with his LB mate Steven Johnson who had 11 stops. They made the key third-down stops in the second half to keep the lead in the final 25 minutes of the game.

Southern Mississippi looked completely hopeless against South Carolina, losing 41-13 as 13-point underdogs. The Golden Eagles returned home on Saturday and blasted Prairie View 34-7 but failed to cover as 32 ½-point favorites. They failed to score in the first half but just dominated the second half, thanks to WR DeAndre Brown who had five catches for 100 yards and a TD.

Southern Mississippi’s defense has not been good the last couple years, giving up 20 points or more in six of the last seven games. These two teams squared off last season and Kansas got the 35-28 home win, but failed to cash as 11 ½-point favorites.

Kansas comes into this one on ATS streaks of 6-1 in non-conference games, 20-7 in September contests, 20-8 after an ATS win and 19-7 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles are on ATS skids of 1-4 in non-conference games and 1-5 in September.

I’m going to grab the points with the Jayhawks tonight. They have the defense that can shut down Southern Mississippi and they’ll definitely keep the game close, if not get the outright win. Play Kansas.

3♦ KANSAS

BRETT ATKINS

On to my free winner - How good is Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick? This guy keeps up the pace he’s set in the first two games and he joins the Heisman Trophy talk later this season.

Against Colorado State on Saturday, he ran for 161 yards on 11 carries and scored twice while throwing for 241 yards and two TDs, completing 21 of 29 passes. He’s already thrown for 547 yards, four TDs and he’s completing more than 71 percent of his passes. The defense for Nevada looks better than last season and dominated the Rams in Saturday’s 51-6 home blowout.

Cal has used its defense to dominate its first two opponents, beating UC Davis 52-3 and clubbing Colorado 52-7 on Saturday. Offensively, QB Kevin Riley has thrown for seven TDs, but the running game has been questionable and Riley has some young receivers that might get flustered when they get hit by the Nevada safeties.

Cal is on ATS slides of 0-5 against WAC teams and 6-13 on the road, while Nevada is on ATS surges of 26-12 at home, 4-1 on Fridays and 8-3 at home against teams with winning road records.

I’ll go ahead and grab the points with the home team Wolf Pack tonight. Play Nevada.

3♦ NEVADA