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3* on Boston Red Sox -130
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Reasons the Red Sox win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games. This is a 59-19 ML System hitting 75.6% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 5-1 this season. Bet the Red Sox at home.
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1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -125
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I'll back the red hot Phillies on the run line tonight with as good as Roy Oswalt has been going. The Phillies have won each of his last 8 starts, and 6 of those wins have come by at least 2 runs. In addition, Oswalt's teams are an impressive 13-0 in home games when he gets the start vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. His clubs are winning by an average score of 5.5 to 2.0 in these games. Oswalt will be opposed by Jason Marquis, who is just 2-8 with an ERA of 6.60 on the season. It is certainly worth noting that 7 of those 8 losses have come by at least 2 runs. The Phillies have won 8 of their last 9 games overall, and 6 of those 8 wins have come by 2 or more runs. Take the Phillies on the run line.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros
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The Houston Astros continue to fight in the second half of the season. They have been one of the best second half teams in baseball this year. Houston is 34-23 in the second half and now just 6 games below .500. Players have it set in their minds that they want to get back to .500 for the season, which would be quite an accomplishment as they look forward to next year. Astros starter Wandy Rodriquez has been a huge part of the Astros second half resurgence.
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Rodriquez sports a 3.62 ERA this season, and the left-hander has gone 4-1 with a 1.30 ERA in his last 10 starts, pitching at least seven innings eight times. He'll be motivated to throw another solid outing against the division-leading Reds tonight. Rodriquez last faced the Reds on July 25th, pitching 7 shutout innings while striking out 7 batters and allowing just 3 base runners. The Astros won that home game 4-0. Reds starter Johnny Cueto is 1-4 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.510 WHIP in 8 career starts against Houston. Roll with the Astros Friday.
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1* on Toronto Blue Jays +127
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This is a good price to back Toronto who will be the more motivated team Friday. Boston knows they have no shot of making the postseason. Therefore, they aren't all that motivated to play right now. Toronto can still finish with a .500 record or better, which is certainly one of their team goals right now. The Blue Jays sit at 73-73 entering play Friday and would love nothing more than to go into Fenway Park and take Game 1 of this series. We like their chances with Brett Cecil on the mound who is 12-7 witha 4.12 ERA and 1.284 WHIP this year. Cecil is 7-4 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 14 road starts in 2010, with the Blue jays winning 9 of those 14 contests. John Lackey simply hasn't been as good as the Red Sox had hoped for when they signed him in the offseason. The righty is 12-10 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.458 WHIP this year. In 3 starts against Toronto this year, Lackey is 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA, allowing 16 earned runs in 18.2 innings. Cecil has allowed just 3 earned runs in 12.2 innings in 2 starts against the Red Sox this year for a 2.13 ERA. Take the Blue Jays on the Money Line.
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Arizona @ Pittsburgh
Play: Arizona
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Arizona is now 59-88 overall this year while Pittsburgh comes in with a 48-98 overall record this season. Arizona is 18-8 last 3 years and 1-0 this year as a road favorite of -125 to -150. Pittsburgh is 7-25 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Pittsburgh is 4-19 when playing on Friday this year. Arizona has won 2 of their last 3 heading into this series and those were against a good Cincinnati Reds team. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of their last 8 games overall. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.4 runs per game overall this year and 3.4 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Ian Kennedy is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight!
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Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros
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Wandy Rodriguez may have a 11-12 record with a 3.62 ERA and 1.28 WHIP for the season, but have you seen what he has done over his last ten starts? The left-hander boasts a crisp 1.30 ERA with just a 0.92 WHIP over that span. And Rodriguez has been tough all season at home in Minute Main Park given his 2.71 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and .210 opponent's batting average. Houston has been a profitable proposition at home this season given their 39-36 overall mark. And the Astros have won 23 of their last 34 home games with Rodriguez taking on a team with a winning record. Houston has also won eight straight games against teams with a winning record. The Reds counter with Johnny Cueto who is 12-5 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. But Cueto is just 1-4 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.51 WHIP against the Astros in 47 2/3 innings of work in his career. And while Cueto comes off a dominating performance where he allowed just three hits and no runs against the Pirates, the Reds have lost four of their last five games when Cueto is following a Quality Start in his last outing. Cincy has also lost five straight games away from home. Take Houston in this spot while listing both pitchers.
Chuck O'Brien
Kansas at SOUTHERN MISS (-6)
For today’s complimentary selection – and I’ve hit 13 of 18 free plays in September, including five in a row after Indians and Angels stayed way UNDER the number – I’ll side with Southern Miss as a home chalk against Kansas in the first college football game of the night.
Two situations working squarely in favor of Southern Miss here. The first is the revenge angle. Last year, the Golden Eagles went to Kansas as a 13-point underdog and played the Jayhawks even-up for three quarters – even leading 28-21 midway through the third – before eventually falling 35-28. And that Kansas team was much more experienced than this year’s version.
Secondly, the Jayhawks are in a big-time letdown spot here. After suffering an embarrassing 6-3 loss to North Dakota State in its opener (as a 27½-point home favorite!), Kansas bounced back and shocked 15th-ranked Georgia Tech on Saturday, winning 28-25 as a 14-point home underdog. That victory snapped an eight-game losing skid.
Now you’re asking the Jayhawks to come down from that high, go on the road and face an angry, revenge-minded Southern Miss squad in front of a hostile crowd under the Friday night lights? And need I mention that this is the first road game for Kansas freshman QB Jordan Webb? Good luck!
Despite Saturday’s upset of Georgia Tech, Kansas is still 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall (2-4 ATS as an underdog), and it is in further pointspread declines of 0-4 on the road, 1-7 on artificial turf and 2-6 against Conference USA opponents.
Southern Miss, behind electrifying WR DeAndre Brown (123 catches, 2,067 yards, 23 TDs since 2008), rolls 34-21.
4♦ SOUTHERN MISS
Chris Jordan
Toronto at BOSTON (-130)
I'm on a 20-10 run with MLB free plays, and tonight I am playing the Red Sox against the Blue Jays.
With the Sox, I'm playing a team that still has hopes of making the playoffs, though they're faint. Boston is six games back in the wild card race with 16 left, and it still has seven meetings left with the Yanks.
Thus, against teams like Toronto, wins are necessary. The Sox have won 11 of 15 meetings with the Jays.
I won't list either pitcher tonight, as I'm rolling with the momentum of Boston's four-game win streak. On the flipside, Toronto has dropped seven of eight after being swept in Baltimore.
Also, even though I'm not listing either pitcher, I do think the Sox will get to Brett Cecil quite easily, as he is 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA in four career starts against Boston.
Play the Sox laying a cheap price.
2♦ BOSTON
Karl Garrett
Cincinnati (-115) at HOUSTON
Baseball tonight, and as well as the Astros have been playing this last month or so of the season, they have not fared well against the Cincinnati Reds in this season series.
Cincinnati will look to gain some positive momentum as they get ready for their October quest for the World Series crown, so look for Johnny Cueto to be dealing this evening against the Astros.
Cueto's ERA his last 3 starts is a slender 1.89. G-Man expects him to match pitches with Wandy Rodriguez who has also been on fire, and actually beat the Reds in late July with 7 scoreless innings to his credit.
Still, Cincy is 7-2 in the season series versus Houston this year, and 19-7 overall the last 26 times they have faced the Astros.
Reds to open the weekend with the victory.
4♦ CINCINNATI
Derek Mancini
Arizona (-130) at PITTSBURGH
As much as bettors could really care less about a game between the D-Backs and Pirates, that doesn't mean there isn't value. No question this line is asking for Pirates money, listing them as the small home dog against Arizona tonight. Most people would agree Arizona shouldn't be favored on the highway against anyone (24-48 away), but this is one of those rare moments when they not only deserve to be favored, but will also reward their backers for their courage.
Key here is Ian Kennedy (9-9, 3.87 ERA), who's been great over his L6 starts, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA! That includes 16 consecutive scoreless innings over his L3 starts. Granted, he's on the road where his ERA rises somewhat, but looking over his L3 road starts - all quality efforts - he's allowed 2 combined runs over his L20 innings away. Needless to say, Kennedy is in a groove right now, and its going to take a lot more than the Pirates below average bats to beat him.
Opposing Kennedy is the Pirates lefty Brian Burres (3-3, 5.22), who's jumped back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation now replacing Karstens. He's been solid in his 2 starts, but can we really trust him? Burres has been wildly inconsistent all season, and while his better efforts have come at PNC Park, he'll have his work cut out for him tonight. Arizona does hit lefties well on the road, batting .256 against them in this spot. With neither bullpen getting it done, this one comes down to the starters. And in that case, the edge clearly goes to Arizona (Kennedy) over Pittsburgh (Burres).
3♦ ARIZONA
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Calgary –3 over SASKATCHEWAN
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Well, we hate to lay road points in any football game but the alternative appears worse. Calgary is the cream of the crop and it’s not close. They’re more talented on both sides of the ball than any team in the league with its only weakness being its kicking game. That’s not enough reason to fade them here. The Riders got creamed last week in Winnipeg and that was predicted right here. Saskatchewan hasn’t been sharp all season long and have beaten a bunch of weak teams and got fortunate in the other wins. If you must, lay the points, but we’re going to pass on this one only because laying road points is usually detrimental to one’s bankroll and the Riders are off an embarrassing loss. Play: Calgary (No bets).
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Kansas State -3.5
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This game is played at Arrowhead in Kansas City, a game I will be at with action on it! Iowa State was pounded last week and was down 28-0 to Iowa at one point with 31 totals yards of offense until the Hawkeyes let off the throttle! No such luck here as K State should roll, RB Daniels for K State the best RB in the Big 12 and NFL Material, and ISU allowing 231 yards a game on the ground. Nothing to do for QB Coffman of K State but to hand it off and move the chains at will against a deplorable Cyclone defense. Last year this was a 1 point thriller, K State too much for ISU who cannot get it going with some talent at RB and QB for some reason. Back to Back roadies for ISU here, Kansas St will have tons of local support in KC as well.
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Cal at Nevada
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Far more offense than defense on display in this one. Cal's offense averaged 29 points, 175 yards rushing and 223 yards passing last fall and is led by senior QB Kevin Riley (7 TDs, 0 INTs) and Junior RB Shane Vereen. Nevada returns a ton of talent to a team that averaged 40 points (on a 7-3 run over the total) but the defense was soft at times, so look for plenty of points. Play Cal/Nevada Over the total.
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Kansas Jayhawks vs. So Mississippi Golden Eagles
Play: So Mississippi Golden Eagles -5½
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The Jayhawks got a stiff test in Lawrence from head coach Larry Fedora’s Golden Eagles last season in the programs first ever meeting falling 35-28. Southern Miss was only outgained by 38 yards (433-395), and if not for a pair of red zone turnovers, could have pulled the outright shocker.
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With the Jayhawks now set to pay a visit to one of CUSA’s more hostile venues, the recipe is ripe for the Golden Eagles to get their revenge. Oddsmakers think they get it done as well installing them nearly TD college football pick favorites after going off the board as 13-point underdogs a year ago.
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Tonight’s game presents a very interesting challenge for head coach Turner Gill’s young squad. It’s the first road game for many, and with inexperienced players at the QB and RB position, I think it will take a toll on the final outcome of the game. Southern Miss killed itself on a number of occasions in last season’s meeting with Kansas, and that will be an extreme motivating factor for them tonight.
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While KU’s defense looks to be the strength of the team to date, it’s yet to see the aerial attack that Austin Davis and DeAndre Brown plan to unleash on it. With that being the case, and the fact that the Golden Eagles will be extremely up for this contest, I have no choice but to fade my Hawks in their first road game of the season.
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Look for Southern Miss to snag its first pointspread cover in a huge non-conference win!
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
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The Giants were in fourth place in the NL West at the All-Star break, as San Diego has been in control of the division most of the year. That has changed as the Giants have taken over first place, and should have an extra hop in their step tonight. The Giants at 36-23 since the break aren't getting the respect at home vs. a team that is 31-40 on the road. They have Madison Bumgarner on the mound who has pitched to a more than respectable 3.25 ERA in nearly 100 innings of work. Randy Wolf and his 4.65 ERA take the mound for the Brewers. This is a very low moneyline on a first place team, with a pitcher that has been more than a run better than his opponent. The Brewers are winning just three of their last 13 on the road vs. a winning team. The Giants are 36-16 at home vs. losing road teams. I like San Francisco here.