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1 Unit on Seattle Mariners +100
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Look for the M's to snap their losing streak while bringing Texas' winning streak to an end. Hernandez is having a Cy Young-caliber season with a 2.47 ERA, and he enters this contest with an ERA of just 1.69 over his last 3 starts. He has been the victim of poor run support throughout the year, but it's hard to ignore the fact that Seattle is 5-1 in his last 6 home starts and 13-3 in his last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Wilson has been hit hard in back-to-back starts, and he was hit hard in a start at Seattle last month. I expect a date with the division leaders to revitalize the Seattle lineup and Hernandez will take care of the rest.
Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -119
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Blackburn has had no luck against Oakland in his career, but I think he's due, considering he has a red hot lineup behind him and he enters in top form. The Twins have won 11 of their last 12 games, while scoring at least 5 runs in 8 of those wins. The Twins have won each of Blackburn's last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of only 0.76. In addition, Minnesota has won 8 of his 10 home starts this season. While Anderson has pitched admirably this season, the A's have dropped 5 of his 7 road starts. This is because of poor run support. Oakland is only averaging 3.7 runs per game on the road this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota is scoring 5.1 runs per game at home. I'm on the Twins at a nice price tonight.
Sean MurphyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rockies @ Dodgers
PICK: Over 6.5
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I still remember cashing one of my biggest tickets of the 2008 season in this exact matchup a little over two years ago. It was Jimenez vs. Kuroda with the total set at 7.5 runs, and the game ultimately sailed over that number with the Rockies prevailing by an 8-3 score.
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Obviously a lot has changed over the last two years. Jimenez has become one of the league's most dominant pitchers while Kuroda has settled in, and is having his best big league season (despite losing 12 games).
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Still, I think we're getting excellent value with the over as this total sits at 6.5, or even as low as 6 at some books.
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The Rockies offensive production has increased in each of their last three games, scoring a grand total of 19 runs over the course of their three-game series with the Padres earlier this week.
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The Dodgers just finished a three-game series in San Francisco last night, in which they plated only four runs. Keep in mind, they're not in an extended slump, as they did score 14 runs in three games in Houston last weekend.
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As I mentioned, Ubaldo Jimenez will get the nod for the Rockies. Since June 23rd, 10 of his 15 starts have surpassed tonight's posted total. He's coming off an excellent start in which he allowed just six hits and one earned run while striking out eight and walking one over six innings, but that came against the light-hitting D'Backs.
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The key to this play is the Dodgers success against Jimenez. Their current roster is hitting .301 and slugging .451 against him. In the process, he's posted a mediocre 29:21 strikeout to walk ratio. The only Dodger hitter that has faced Jimenez without recording a hit is Jay Gibbons, and it's not likely he'll be a factor tonight.
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Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda hasn't shown many cracks in his armor over the last couple of months. However, I still expect to see some regression from him in his last few starts of the season. This would be as good a spot as any for that to happen, as the Rockies will get their fourth look at him this season. Note that two of his previous three outings against them produced at least 11 runs.
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The current Rockies roster is hitting .288 and slugging .425 against Kuroda. He has recorded only 11 strikeouts their 73 at-bats. Jason Giambi is the only Colorado hitter to have faced Kuroda and not recorded a hit (0-for-3). Like Gibbons, it's unlikely he'll be in the starting lineup tonight.
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It obviously doesn't take much offense to get over a total set at 6.5. Three runs from each team and we'll cash our ticket. That's a favorable proposition on Friday night. Take the over.
Ben BurnsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: New York Yankees
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This line has come down to the point where we're now getting the Yankees at a fairly reasonable price. With all due respect to the Orioles, who have admittedly played very well in recent weeks, I feel that provides us with solid value on the visitors.
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Burnett and Millwood have similar stats this season. Neither have been good. Burnett has enjoyed more success against today's opponent though. He's 11-4 vs. the Orioles. In four starts against the O's this season, he's got a 2.48 ERA, lasting greater than six innings in each. On the other hand, Millwood is 2-7 vs. New York. That includes a 0-2 with a 7.56 ERA in three starts against the Yankees this season. Last time he faced them, Millwood gave up 10 hits, five walks and six runs in 5 2/3 innings, en route to taking a 12-7 loss.
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The Yankees are 28-14 (+5.4) the last 42 times that they were road favorites in the -150 to -175 range. They're also 11-4 against the O's this season. Consider laying the wood.
Sac LawsonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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CHC (-101) vs FLA
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My big problem with backing Alex Sanabia is the fact that he has already eclipsed his total number of innings from last year by about 45 innings. With every start the youngster will be further and further away from what he's physically and mentally used to. These September games can really start to wear on a young guy.
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On the other side, the Cubs are starting Ryan Dempster. I true veteran. He's had about the type of season you'd expect from Dempster, but the thing that stands out to me is how much success he's had on the road. Dude has been rock solid on the road for the Cubs this year.
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My feeling is that after sweeping the Cardinals in St. Louis for the first time in ages, there will be some good mojo floating around the Cubs clubhouse. I expect Sanabia to really start to regress as the season continues, and I think the Cubs ride their recent hot streak to a win over him and the Fish today. 1 unit on the Cubs.
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MIN (-120) vs OAK
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I talked about this the other night when I backed the Twins, and I'll say it yet again. The Twins just flat out keep winning. They are now 12-2 in the month of September, and have by far the best record in the Majors since the All-Star break. They are flat out running away with things. Getting them at home, regardless of who is on the mound, at such a generous price is something to take notice of.
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Brett Anderson has, in fact, struggled against the Twins in the past. He's given up something like 15 hits in just 12 career innings against them, and although he's a lefty, he throws that two-seam sinker which actually breaks in on lefties giving it similar rotation to a right handers slider. That right there is why the Twins' lefties have hit him in the past, and will hit him again tonight.
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Yes, Blackburn is always a concern, but the guy is still rock solid at home, and he flat out finds ways to keep his team in the game at Target Field. That's all we need from him, really.
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The Twins are close to locking up the division, and I think rather than kick back and let it happen, they'll go out there over the next couple weeks and flat out TAKE IT. Take the Twins for 1 unit.
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Rangers / Mariners Under 6
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The Seattle Mariners are pushing tonight’s starter, Felix Hernandez, for the Cy Young Award, while C.J. Wilson is having a good year for the Texas Rangers and now gets to face the worst lineup in baseball, so runs should be hard to come by tonight.
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The bookmakers have installed an understandably low total of 6 for this contest, with the betting odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.
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You can almost never go wrong taking an ‘under’ in a Seattle game this season, as the ‘under’ is 77-58-11 in all of their games including am insanely profitable 47-24-3, 66.2 percent here at home. Of course, that is totally understandable when you consider the Mariners are dead last in the Major Leagues with their .234 team batting average, an average that drops to .214 over their last 10 games, but they do have a good pitching staff.
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Now, the Cy Young talk concerning Hernandez seems unrealistic, but he does lead the American League in ERA at 2.49 and he is fourth in WHIP at 1.09. However, the voters will most likely not see though his 11-11 record despite the fact that it has everything to do with the inept Seattle offense and noting to do with his pitching, which has been superb. In fact, King Felix has unbelievably allowed one earned run or less in five of his last six starts!
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As for Wilson, he is 14-6 with a 3.25 ERA in his own right, and he has five Quality Starts in his last seven outings, with the two non-quality outings coming at Yankee Stadium and at Minnesota, two of the hottest lineups in baseball. He is not quite facing such a formidable foe this evening. Also note that if Wilson is in need of relief, Texas is third in the American League in bullpen ERA at 3.29.
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Even with this fairly low total, look for an ‘under’ in the Emerald City tonight.