Sam Martin
New Mexico vs. Arizona State
Play: New Mexico +28
No chance for New Mexico to win this game outright, but with a strong running attack and Arizona State in a big lookahead spot, we do like the Lobos chances of staying within this generous pointspread. Sun Devils have a big PAC 12 matchup with USC next and will turn their attention to the Trojans once this game is no longer in doubt.
Don't like ASU's chances of running up the score here noting New Mexico is a rush-heavy team that put up 360 and 224 yards in their first two games, and they face an Arizona State defense that gave up big rushing yardage against Texas A&M (178) and Cal Poly Slo (284). That running game will eat away the clock and the Sun Devils simply won't have enough time or possessions to cover this big number. Lobos are 11-2 ATS coming off an outright loss as a home favorite, and judging by ASU's 14-point win as a 35-point favorite last week, they win easily outright but can't cover this high of a number.
SPS Investors
Florida State vs. Boston College
Pick: Boston College
Thursday Night College Football action kicks off as the Florida State Seminoles travel to take on the Boston College Eagles. Let's face it, Boston College's first two games against FCS competition certainly will not have prepared them in any way to face Florida State, however we're not sure the Eagles need much of a tune up. Since 2008, the Eagles have an impressive 6-2 ATS mark against Jimbo Fisher's team and always seem to play them tough. Last year in Tallahassee, and against the Heisman winning Jameis Winston, the Eagles managed to put a scare in the Noles before Florida State escaped with a narrow 20-17 victory. The previous year was eerily similar as the Noles again narrowly escaped a high scoring affair in Boston. Styles certainly make matchups and the Eagles seem to play the style that has an effect on Florida State. Throw in the fact that the Eagle are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 with conference revenge on their minds and 4-0 as a home underdog of 7 or more points and this weekday contest is shaping up to be another gritty matchup between the Eagles and the Noles. The points should once again come into play in this one.
Raphael Esparza
Florida State / Boston College Under 51
Yes I know Boston College scored 76 points last Saturday, but that was against Howard, and the BC Eagles have only allowed 3 points in their last 2 games. The Florida St offense last week struggled at times, and their defense has carried them in their last 2 games, only giving 16 points in Game #1 and 14 points last Saturday against South Florida. Defense will rule this game, and if the Seminoles struggle on the road Friday night I see this game easily flying UNDER. Last year this game was played in Florida and the total was posted at 57.5, and that game easily went UNDER as the game ended 20-17 Seminoles. It wouldn't shock me to see another close game in Boston Friday night. In Boston College's last 8 conference games, 5 of them have gone UNDER and Florida St is 2-5 O/U following a SU win.
Alan Harris
British Columbia / Calgary Under 48
Two teams that have been trending to the under will meet on Friday night when the BC Lions travel to take on the Stampeders at McMahon Stadium in Calgary. The Lions have posted a 5-1 record to the under in their last six games played in the month of September, and they have an excellent 20-9-1 record to the under in their last 30 games following a SU loss. The Stampeders have also been an under team in the spot they are in here on Friday night as they have posted a 6-1 record to the under in their last seven home games and they have gone 9-3 to the under in their last 12 games overall. Throw in the fact that BC has gone a fantastic 26-11 to the under in games following a loss where they failed to cover the spread, and that's where we'll have our Free Play this week in a game where we expect both teams to struggle moving the ball on Friday night in Calgary.
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is Marlins and Nationals to go under the posted total. At the time of this writing the total is holding steady at 6 1/2.
Jose Fernandez takes the hill for the Marlins and brings a 5-0 record with a 2.06 ERA with him. He dominated in his last start, pitching five scoreless innings allowing two hits while striking out six. He was making his first start since missing a month due to a strained bicep.
He's 3-0 vs. the Nationals with a 0.58 ERA in three career starts against them. But it seems to me that no matter who he faces he's going to dominate.
On the other side, Max Scherzer got his first win in well over a month in his last start by tossing seven innings of six-hit ball. He's 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA in six starts against the Marlins and he should have a lot of success through six innings again tonight.
Take the Marlins and Nats UNDER the total as your free play of the day.
2* MIAMI-WASHINGTON UNDER
Sleepyj
San Diego -105
Betting against the Rockies the first trip back home has been a decnt wager...Visiting teams love to visit this park to hit the ball all over..Countless times this year we have seen the Rockies come back home and drop the 1st game of a new series...San Diego will look to Ian Kennedy here tonight...kennedy has been knocked around his last 2 starts...If you go back on the last 10 games though for kennedy he has been "ok"...He has some good stuff and i think it can work here in Colorado...He has seen the Rockies twice in his last 10 starts and he gave up his fair share of runs...i like the fact that he strikeouts out guys in this linuep however..He has struck out 17 Rockies in his last to attempts.....His last trip to Coors field was pretty good though..He allowed 1ER and only 4 hits...He got pulled and that was really the issue for the Padres in the game..Kennedy left the bullpen with a bit of a jam in that game..He suffered a loss in that contest...Kennedy should have a little revenge, and confidence as well...He hasn't picked up win since Aug 22nd..he will be gunning for a win here tonight..Padres bats can heat up at any time and they are fresh off a road series win Vs. the D-Backs..Padres have plenty of power in this lineup to get a couple shots here tonight...Rockies will counter with Chad Bettis.....bettis has a 4.59 ERA and a WHIP of 1.42...Bettis can walk guys from time to time and can struggle to get the strikeouts he needs....His last two home starts he has allowed 4ER in those games...The Rockies come home now after a long 10 game road trip..The season is almost over and i have to wonder how motivated they will be to get back on the field after a fulls days rest now...Bettis has seen this SD lineup once this year..he picked up a loss as he allowed 3ER in that game back in July..I think this Padres team is much different now though..I think Kennedy bounces back here tonight....I'm not a big fan of fading the Rocks Vs. RHP, but the return trip back home Vs. a team with some power to open up the series is worth a small wager.
Rob Vinciletti
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -1½ +120
The Giants have Bumgarner on the mound and he has a solid 1.85 home Era. Arizona counters with Ruby DeLarosa who has terrible current form with a 8.31 Era in his last 3 starts. Arizona has lost the last 4 as a road dg and is 21-66 the last few years as a road dog in this range. Home favorites of -140 or more that are off a home loss by 2 or more runs scored 4 or less runs and 1 or no errors have won nearly 80% of the time vs a team like Arizona that is off a home favored loss and scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits. San Francisco has averaged 6.6 6 runs the past week while hitting over .300. Look for the Giants to take the opener against Arizona tonight.
Big Al
Seattle vs. Texas
Pick: Texas
Fresh off of their successful series against Houston in which they overtook the Astros for first place in the AL West, the Rangers now get a visit from a Mariners club that's treading water right now. And for the first game of the series, the hot-hitting Rangers lineup gets to face a southpaw starter making only his second appearance since the end of May. That is when James Paxton had to shut it down due to a finger injury and it's been a long road back for Paxton and all signs point to that road extending for the rest of the month and perhaps into the off-season. Paxton struggled in the Minors during his rehab, and he continued those struggles in his first start back last Sunday, lasting just three innings in a 3-2 loss at home to the lowly Rockies. The Rangers send RH Yovani Gallardo to the mound for his 31st start tonight, and although Gallardo has been inconsistent of late, he also has three shutout efforts in his last five starts, including 5 1/3 three-hit innings blanking the best offense in the league (the Jays) and 5 1/3 shutout innings over this same Mariners club two starts back. The Rangers are 8-2 in Gallardo's last ten starts.
Art Aronson
Marlins vs. Nationals
Play: Under 6½
The visitors hand the ball to Jose Fernandez (5-0, 2.06 ERA) who won his first start back from the DL vs. the Nationals last week, going five innings of shutout ball, scattering two hits with one walk while striking out seven in the process. Note that Fernandez has not allowed more than three runs in any of his outings this season. The home side counters with Max Scherzer (12-11, 2.91 ERA) who would blank the Fish on Sunday over eight innings in the victory. It was a big win for the veteran who successfully navigated out of a rough patch, note that he's posted a respectable 3.57 ERA in all "night" games this year. With these two highly competent starters going head to head on Friday night, there's no question that the UNDER is indeed worthy of a second look in this matchup.
Mr. Vegas
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Play: Baltimore
Tampa Bay is a great park for hitters and a strong Baltimore attack is in town, 9th in baseball in runs scored, 6th in slugging. The Orioles are on a 6-2, plus 8-2 when Wei-Yin Chen faces a team with a losing record. Chen (9-7) limited the Royals to two runs over seven innings to record the win Sunday, with the team 7-3 his last 10 starts. He's 4-2 on the road with a 3.31 ERA. Tampa Bay has a losing home mark and starter Drew Smyly has now made five starts since returning from the disabled list last month, and has allowed four or more runs in three of them. The Orioles are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Tampa Bay, so grab the visitors.
Dr Bob
Florida State (-7½) 25 BOSTON COLLEGE 18
Boston College has been dominant defensively against two FCS teams, allowing just 3 total points and an average of 51 yards at 1.2 yards per play to Maine and Howard. I’m not going to get too carried away but that level of domination, even against low level FCS teams, is eye opening. Boston College is not the first team to log good defensive stats against a pair of FCS teams to start the season and teams that allowed single-digit points in each of their first two games against FCS teams are 8-2 ATS in game 3 against an FBS opponent (5-1 ATS as a dog). Obviously, that’s not a trend I’m going to base a bet on but it is a reminder not to fully discount those games. The Eagles should have some offensive success by running the ball, as the Seminoles weren’t particularly good defending the run last season and gave up 4.6 yards per rushing play to Texas State and South Florida in their first two games, which is mediocre given the competition faced. I don’t think BC will have any success throwing the ball though, as the Noles’ should have a very strong pass defense this season and Eagles’ starting quarterback Darius Wade completed only 57% of his passes and averaged 5.5 yards per pass play against horrible defensive competition. My ratings favor FSU by 10 points but BC applies to a 236-131-4 ATS situation. I’d pass the side but would lean with the Under.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is Florida State and Boston College to go Over the total.
Not a crazy high total for this college game, but also must consider that last year when the teams played, the final was 20-17 at Doak Campbell Stadium, as that ended a streak of 2 straight Overs in the series.
With plenty of change going on with Jimbo Fisher's team, I am going to look for there to be just enough points to get this one into the Over column at Boston College.
The Seminoles are on a 5-0 run Over the total their last 5 games played on fieldturf, and 4 of the last 5 series meetings contested in Boston have played Over the total as well. Throw in B.C. playing Overs in each of their last 4 games that have followed a straight up win, and I have enough statistical trends to look for this one to just make its way into the Over column come the final gun.
Florida State-Boston College Over the total.
2* FLORIDA STATE-BOSTON COLLEGE OVER
Brad Wilton
My comp play winner for Friday is the Royals and Tigers to head Over the total.
Normally when you have pitchers like Johnny Cueto and Justin Verlander on the hill, you would not expect too many runs, but these are different times.
Cueto is a real concern right now for the playoff-bound Royals, as he has lost 5 straight games with an ERA near 8, and he has allowed 8 home runs in that span as well!
Each of Cueto's last 6 starts have played Over the total, and this one will as well.
Justin Verlander has dropped back-to-back starts, allowing 7 runs over his last 13 innings pitched, and 2 of his last 3 starts have played Over the total.
Each of the last 4 series meetings between these division-rivals have landed Over the total, and Detroit is on an overall 49-26-5 Over run their last 80 games played this season.
Take the Over at Comerica to open the weekend.
4* KANSAS CITY-DETROIT OVER
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays -120
I expect the Tampa Bay Rays to stop the bleeding today after losing five of their last six games overall coming in. That's because they send one of their best starters to the mound in Drew Smyly. The left-hander is 2-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in nine starts. He has been injured most of the season, but when healthy, he'd been dominant. Smyly is finding his groove here of late, going 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in his last three starts with 24 K's in 18 innings. Smyly has never lost to the Orioles, going 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA and 0.808 WHIP in four lifetime starts against them. His teams are a perfect 4-0 in those four starts.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -143
The Texas Rangers have some really good mojo going right now. They just swept the Houston Astros in four games to overtake them for first place in the AL West. They outscored the Astros 8.3 to 3.3 for the series, or by an average of 5.0 runs per game. I look for them to continue their stellar play tonight against the Seattle Mariners.
Yovani Gallardo has proven to be a huge addition to the rotation this year. Gallardo is 12-10 with a 3.35 ERA in 30 starts. He has owned the Mariners, going 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA in three starts against them in 2015. He has allowed just three earned runs over 17 1/3 innings in those three starts.
James Paxton has pitched pretty well for the Mariners, who have nothing to play for but pride. He is 3-4 with a 3.08 ERA in 11 starts this year. But Paxton is 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in his last three starts, and I don't like his chances for success against this red-hot Rangers lineup.
The Mariners are 17-39 in their last 56 games following a win. Seattle is 1-6 in Paxton's last seven road starts. The Rangers are 22-5 in their last 27 home games. Texas is 5-1 in Gallardo's last six starts.