Brandon Lee
Atlanta Braves -107
This is a great price to back the Braves at home against the Phillies, who have lost 3 straight and are just 6-17 over their last 23 games. Philadelphia is also a miserable 23-49 on the road this season. Atlanta hasn't been a whole lot better of late, but I like the starting pitching matchup here. Braves will give the ball to Williams Perez, who has pitched very well in his last two starts, giving up just 5 runs in 13 innings. Philadelphia's Adam Morgan will oppose Perez and he's allowed 10 runs in his last 2 starts and is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 2 career starts against Atlanta. Both of which have come this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Detroit Tigers -104
Detroit is showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Royals. Kansas City will send out Johnny Cueto, who has completely lost his form of late. Cueto has lost 5 straight starts and during this stretch has a 9.57 ERA and has allowed a whopping 8 home runs.
I'll take my chances here with Detroit and their ace Justin Verlander, who has pitched much better than anyone expected since returning to the rotation. Verlander has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 8 of his last 10 starts. What really stands out to me is his history against the Royals. He's 20-8 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 37 career starts against KC. He faced them earlier this month and allowed just 2 runs over 6 2/3 innings of a 6-5 win at KC, where he was opposed by Cueto.
Royals are just 3-7 in their last 10 against the AL Central, 1-7 in their last 8 against a team with a losing record and 0-5 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. Tigers are 35-17 in Verlander's last 52 home starts against a team with a winning record and are 4-1 in his last 5 following a team loss in his last start.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +145 over WASHINGTON
We’re going to ride the hot hand of the Marlins for at least one more day. After last night’s win, Miami has now won 12 of its past 16 games. Facing Max Scherzer is no picnic but Scherzer is laboring to the finish line and it’s also worth noting that he’s just 4-6 at Nationals Park this year with a 3.57 ERA. The Nats have been MLB’s biggest disappointment and there is just not much fire left in them whatsoever. Washington has been beatable all year and they’re even more beatable here with just a couple weeks left in the season and facing a pitcher they know they can’t hit.
Jose Fernandez is not only great but there isn’t a pitcher in baseball that wants to win or compete more than he does. His energy is infectious and so is his personality. When he pitches, every player on the field wants to excel in support of him because he roots for all of them like nobody else. But let’s forget all that for a minute because there’s this: Jose Fernandez is a perfect eight-for-eight this season, throwing a dominant game in every start to this point. Two of those starts have come against the Nationals. In his career, he has made five starts versus the Nationals, where he is 3-0 with a 0.58 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 35/10 K/BB in 31 innings. Now we’re being offered a tag like this on the better pitcher, the better bullpen and the team in WAY better form that is playing with way more desire. Yeah, we’ll bite.
Cincinnati +105 over MILWAUKEE
Milwaukee has dropped six in a row and eight of its past nine games. When you are losing like they are, the last couple of weeks of the season really drag on. After playing the last seven games against Pittsburgh and St. Louis, the intensity level now drops off for the Brewers as well. Remember, this is a Milwaukee team that was out of it by the end of May so the toll of a long, losing season will weigh heavier on them than it will on others. The end of the season can’t get here soon enough for the Crew. Now, two rookie starters will go at it here and we’ll gladly step in and grab the value.
The Brewers acquired Zach Davies from the Orioles at the trade deadline for Gerardo Parra and he’s made three starts since being called up as one of the September call-ups. If you like starters big and burly with big heat in their fastball and nasty breaking stuff, Zach Davies is not your guy. That being said, Davies is living proof that you don't need to possess those things in order to have a successful future, and he has a chance to become a mid-rotation starter. Davies pounds the strike zone with three pitches, the best of these being a change that sinks to the bottom of the zone and has excellent deception. The fastball is typically 88-91 mph, but he commands the heck out of it, hitting all four quadrants with enough movement to keeps hitters from crushing it if they guess right. The curveball is also an average offering with some depth, but without the big break to make it a true swing and miss pitch. He repeats his delivery well, and as you can guess from the comment about his fastball command the overall command is above average, maybe even plus. A top-of-the-rotation arm he is not, but Davies has a chance to be a solid back-end starter who limits his self-inflicted damage, though he will need a quality defense behind him, as he's not going to miss enough bats to overcome any deficiencies. Davies can miss bats with his secondary offerings and limits the free passes very well when at his best; however, he can quickly become homer prone when the command isn't perfect. He's a back-end starter but could struggle with his WHIP and run prevention at times, due to his lack of premium stuff. Davies has a BB/K split of 8/10 over 15 innings. His M.O. says all those walks are uncharacteristic. However, you really never know what’s in a young rookies’ mind once he gets up here. All those walks suggest that he doesn’t trust his stuff. He’s afraid to come at hitters so he’s nibbling. Davies has been whacked in two of his three starts. In his last start he lasted just 3.2 innings after allowing six hits, six runs and walking five batters. As the chalk pitching for the Crew, we'll pass.
Brandon Finnegan is more known than Zach Davies. He pitched in relief for the Royals before being traded to the Reds in the Johnny Cueto deal. He made eight starts at Triple-A Louisville before getting the call to Cincinnati in September, posting a 6.23 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over 30.1 innings there but unlike the market response to that, we’re putting no weight on it whatsoever. Getting traded and subsequently sent down had to be mentally tough on Finnegan after he pitched in the College World Series and MLB World Series last year. To go from that to the minor leagues had to be a huge letdown, not to mention the emotional impact of being traded. You may remember Finnegan from his playoff performance from a year ago but in case you do not, here’s a sample of what he’s capable of:
Finnegan blew through the minors in his truncated first year of professional baseball. He works 90-92 with a plus fastball that has touched 98 in relief, as well as an above-average slider and change. Finnegan’s arm action is violent, but he commands his pitches well, likes to work inside, and some scouts think he can repeat his delivery effectively to hold up in a starting capacity. He’s undersized at 5’11”, however, so the more likely route for Finnegan is in the bullpen, where his stuff plays up significantly to where he could close games. It is in this capacity that Finnegan reached the majors last season and where the Royals used him but the Reds have other plans for now. Finnegan's changeup is going to be the separator, as far as any hope of starting goes. It's a genuinely strong pitch, able to generate whiffs and ground balls against right-handers in its limited exposure to date. He has an excellent sinker/slider combination, although neither have yet passed the MLB test in more than a single trip through the order. If he can wield that change as a weapon against righties in larger samples, he's a starter, and probably a good one. If he can't, he's stretched, and the Reds will have to hope he can find the extra tick or two of velocity he would need to be a guy they could use to replace Aroldis Chapman. Finnegan is likely going to be on a pitch count here but that’s fine with us. For one’s he’s a lefty and the Brewers can’t hit lefties so there’s that. Cincinnati will use a bullpen by committee to finish off the game and that’s also fine with us too, as they’ll run out a bunch of relievers to pitch an inning or two. In the end, we like a lefty starter with experience and success at this level against a reeling Brewers team that is sending out a pitcher with little experience, very limited success and less confidence in what he’s doing out there.
Boston (5 innings) +165 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays remain very warm but at the same time they remain overvalued almost daily. That doesn’t mean one should fade them every day because there is no value in losing but one can pick their spots to fade them, as there is some definite profit potential doing that because of these inflated prices. Oh, and BTW, the Red Sox have been pretty warm too with 15 wins over their past 22 games and scoring a resounding 119 runs over that span.
The Blue Jays have one problem going into the playoffs and we all know what that is. They have to find a #2 guy behind David Price. In an attempt to do that, Toronto has pushed back Mark Buehrle at least twice recently and now they have removed Drew Hutchison from the rotation in favor of Marcus Stroman. Stroman would have absolutely been the #2 guy behind Price had he not missed the past six months but that’s a moot point because he has. The Jays are really hoping he can round into form in time for the playoffs so they’ll send him out there every fifth day for now. Stroman went 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA in 131 innings last year. He was called up in May, he landed a rotation gig in June, and didn't look back. There are plenty of reasons for optimism too, which includes pinpoint control, plenty of grounders and he showed no L/R split either. Stroman’s xERA says this could've been even better. At 24 years old, he has it all but six months removed from left knee ACL surgery and just one poor start says he has a way to go yet before he’s back in form. Stroman’s two rehab starts were also very average. In five frames against the Yanks last weekend, Stroman walked two, struck out two and had a 6% swing and miss rate. Although we agree with Toronto’s attempt at expediting Stroman’s return to form, he’s not even close yet. Now he’s favored like he’s in peak form.
Then there’s Rick Porcello, who has never been in better form than he is right now. Porcello has always had the stuff to dominate but has never quite got there for an extended period of time. However, when he’s on his game, few right-handers can claim a better slider. Porcello has a BB/K split of 6/30 over his last 29 innings. His 2.54 xERA in four starts since coming off the DL is third in the majors behind Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. He has pitched at least seven full innings or more in each one of those starts. Betting against Toronto at the Rogers Center is something that some may not want to mess with and we can understand why for sure. However, we can’t resist this price and situation because it’s a good one and if Porcello is on again, this ticket is very likely going to cash.
SPORTS WAGERS
CALGARY -11½ over B.C. Lions
As much as we hate to lay double digits in a CFL game, this one has blowout written all over it. For one, we love the fact that the Stamps are coming off a loss against Edmonton. We love that the Stamps have scored just 16 points in consecutive games because they are ready to go off. Over the years, Calgary has beaten up on weak opponents more than any team in this league and this Lions team is the weakest one we’ve seen in a long time. With Travis Lulay on the rack, B.C. was at home last week to Ottawa and was crushed to the tune of 31-18. That was a flattering score for the Lions, as they were outgained by a ridiculous 262 yards. In fact, the Lions have been outgained in every single game this year with the exception of one against the Riders. That was back in Week 2. B.C. now travels to Calgary with just four days to prepare after playing on Sept 13. B.C. would have trouble competing here with a month to prepare. The Lions are virtually weaponless so teams stack the box against Andrew Harris and the Lions are out of options. They can’t pass, they can’t run, they can’t defend and they’re actually fortunate to be 4-6 instead of 0-10. Three of B.C.’s win were by three points with two of those occurring against Saskatchewan.
Calgary should be able to name the score here. The Stamps do not want to stay in this offensive scoring drought as they head into the stretch drive. Calgary is loaded with offensive talent and this is the perfect opportunity to let loose. Jon Cornish returns for this game and it’s not going to take much to get these Lions into a dejected state. Even if B.C. shows more grit this time around, it's unlikely to hold up for four quarters against an offense that cannot be contained by such a meek defense. John Hufnagel and Bo Levi Mitchel are taking some heat for their lack of offense against Edmonton the past two weeks but those two are championship-caliber ingredients, not liabilities. While we're not yet sure how October and November will shake out, we like the Stamps chances of completely silencing the naysayers for at least this week with a great offensive plan and execution against a really bad opponent that does not do anything well, including travel.
Wunderdog
New York Yankees @ New York Mets
Pick: New York +105
The New York Mets have had a surprisingly great season. They were lined up in the same division as the Washington Nationals, a team the pundits projected as the winningest team in the regular season, according to season win totals. The Nats never lived up to that billing, while the Mets have all but secured the division championship with an eight game lead with just two weeks to go. The Mets have gotten a lot of mileage out of a young and talented rotation, and now have added Steven Matz, who is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA. The Yankees have their ace, Masahiro Tanaka, but his numbers pale in comparison to Matz'. Additionally, the Mets have been sticking it to righthanders at 38-18 in their last 56, and are also now 12-3 in their last 15 series openers. Take the Mets in this one.
Bob Balfe
Tigers -105
I think it is important that Verlander finishes the season strong after missing the first part of the year due to injury. Remember who we are talking about here. Verlander is one of the best pitchers in the game and when healthy I will take him over just about every pitcher in this league. Cueto has struggled in his last few starts. I love Verlander at this price.
Bruce Marshall
New Mexico at Arizona State
Pick: New Mexico
Nothing like a lopsided loss to Tulsa to take the air out of the many balloons that routinely float around Albuquerque. Meanwhile, ASU backers hope that looking at Cal Poly's awkward option last week might better prepare Sun Devils to deal with similar-designed Lobo Pistol. ASU's class edge was hard to ignore in LY's romp. But will draw the line around three TDs until QSun Devils display more consistency. Bob Davie 8-3 last 11 as road dog.
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Florida State Seminoles laying the chalk over the Boston College Eagles, in ACC play.
As good as the Seminoles were when they won their most recent national championship, crushing 14 opponents by an average margin of nearly 40 points, these pesky Eagles proved to be a tough customer. The Seminoles know how tough B.C. can be, and that's why I like them tonight. They won't take the Eagles lightly, and they won't buy the hype on themselves.
In fact, I think the'll treat this game like a must-win, and will be looking to win by double digits.
No. 9 Florida State (2-0) won the last two meetings by an average of 8.5 points - winning by 14 two years ago, and a field goal last season. And even with the loss of Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston to the NFL, the Seminoles are far more talented than Boston College, and this year might win more impressively than the previous two.
Everett Golson has found new life, post-Notre Dame. And he's faced the Eagles, while quarterbacking for the Irish. He won 21-6, in 2012, going 16 for 24 for 200 yards and two touchdowns; he also ran for a 2-yard score.
So while the Eagles (2-0) are in ater a 76-0 win over Howard, this major step up in competition is going to be a slap to the helmet they may not wake up from. At least not until Sunday's film time in the team's athletic center.
The road team has owned this series at the window, having covered seven of the last 10 meetings. Let's play the road chalk here, and in this event, whether you're being offered 7 or 7 1/2, I want you buying the half point down.
4* FLORIDA STATE
Vegas Butcher
Kansas City Royals -117
Cueto is going through a rough stretch but there’s nothing ‘wrong’ with him, he’s just being very unlucky. His velocity is the same and he’s not walking more batters than norm. Last time he opposed Verlander at home the odds were -180 on 09/01. With an adjustment for home-field edge today’s line should be around -135 Royals. Well it’s not, providing us with solid value. Cueto has been a better pitcher than Verlander on the year and I don’t have to tell you about the humongous edge that the Royals have with their BP in this one.
Kevin Rogers
Marlins at Nationals
Pick: Marlins
The Nationals are running out of time for a playoff spot following last night's loss to the Marlins. Tonight, Jose Fernandez looks to beat Washington for the third time this season, while being listed in the underdog role for the first time on the road in 2015. In two starts against the Nats this season, Fernandez has allowed just 10 hits in 11 innings, while yielding one earned run. Max Scherzer blanked the Marlins in his last start, but Washington is 0-3 in his last three outings at Nationals Park, while going 2-5 in the past seven starts overall. I'll take the Marlins to beat the Nationals.
Anthony Michael
Boston College +9
Boston College has covered their last 9 straight games with revenge in conference play and they have covered their last 4 as home underdogs of a TD or more. Florida State has only covered 4 of their last 15 games as favorites and only 2 of their last 7 against Boston College. Take the points and the Eagles here.
OC Dooley
Yankees / Mets Over 7
At the bottom of this analysis an UNDEFEATED season long totals angle which makes this a high percentage wager. I am aware that Stephen Matz of the Mets has a SUB-TWO earned run average spanning eight starts at the major league level but he spent more than a solid month on the disabled list. Tonight is a very special start for the youngster (native of Long Island) who actually grew up as a fan of the Mets so there is a possibility of another quality outing, but for those familiar with Matz he is also an excellent HITTER at the plate. With tonight’s Inteleague game being played in a National League park (minus designated hitters) the fact that Matz can hit is critical to this particular handicap. On the mound for the Yankees is Masahiro Tanaka who is working on “four days rest” for a second consecutive assignment, but is should be pointed out the Bronx Bombers for most of the campaign had given their oft-injured hurler an EXTRA day of rest so I argue he is being “forced” into service a bit too early due in part to an injury which sidelined their most effective starter (Nate Eovaldi) for the remainder of the campaign. During INTERLEAGUE play this season when facing a junior circuit lineup with a collective batting average of .260 or less the Mets have gone an incredible 7-0 OVER the total