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(10) Boise State (2-0 SU and ATS) at Fresno State (1-1, 1-0 ATS)
Boise State begins its quest for a seventh Western Athletic Conference crown in the last eight years when it heads to central California to battle rival Fresno State.
The Broncos are hoping to run the table in the WAC and earn themselves a BCS bowl bid for the second time in the last four years. After dominating Oregon 19-8 as a 3½-point home favorite in the opener, Boise State crushed Miami (Ohio) 48-0 Saturday, covering as a huge 38½-point home chalk. QB Kellen Moore has been spectacular for the Broncos, throwing for 504 yards, five TDs and just one INT, and he’s found a favorite target in Titus Young, who had 114 yards receiving and two TDs against Miami on Saturday.
Fresno State went to Madison, Wis., on Saturday and built a 21-7 lead on the Badgers before allowing the Big Ten squad to come back and win 34-31 in double-overtime, though the Bulldogs covered easily as an eight-point underdog. QB Ryan Colburn threw three TD passes in the first half against Wisconsin only to throw three INTs in the second half as the Badgers rallied to tie and eventually win in OT. Bulldogs’ RB Ryan Mathews has rushed for 213 yards on 30 carries in two games.
Boise State got 211 yards passing and two TDs from Moore in last season’s 61-10 destruction of Fresno State, as the Broncos easily cashed as a 21½-point home favorite. The Broncos have won three straight and eight of nine against Fresno, cashing in seven of those eight contests. The favorite has gotten the cash in each of the last seven meetings, and the host is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Since joining the WAC in 2001, Boise State has won 54 of 56 conference contests, with one of the defeats coming in 2005 at then-No. 20 Fresno State (27-7 loss as a 9½-point road underdog).
The Broncos are on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 5-0 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-1 in September, 4-1-1 in WAC play, 10-3 in Friday night contests and 43-20-1 when they follow a previous ATS win.
Despite cashing at Wisconsin on Saturday, the Bulldogs have struggled at the window lately, posting ATS slumps of 11-30 overall, 5-16 at home, 3-9 in September, 6-20 in WAC games, 1-5-1 in conference openers 1-7 on Fridays and 3-23 following a straight-up loss.
Boise State is on several “under” streaks, including 10-3 in September, 8-3 as a road favorite, 7-2 after an ATS win and 7-2 when it’s favored by 3½ to 10 points. Fresno State has topped the total in eight of its last 12 lined games overall, 17 of 25 in September and five of its last seven after a SU loss. Finally, the “under” has been the play in four of the last six between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOISE STATE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (79-67) at L.A. Dodgers (88-59)
Trailing the Rockies by 3½ games and the Dodgers by 8½, the Giants will try to get back into the playoff race as they kickoff a three-game set in southern California with lefty Jonathan Sanchez (6-12, 4.16 ERA) going up against Los Angeles’ Vicente Padilla (3-0, 2.01).
San Francisco went 4-5 on its recent nine-game homestand, but did manage to take two of three from the Rockies to remain in the hunt for the N.L. wild card. However, the Giants, who were idle on Thursday, have lost their last six games after taking a day off and they are just 2-5 in their last seven as a road ‘dog.
The Dodgers have won seven of nine overall, including a three-game home sweep of the Pirates capped by Wednesday’s 3-1 victory. Los Angeles is on several positive streaks, including 25-12 at home against southpaws, 6-1 as a favorite, 69-31 as a home chalk and 40-19 against N.L. West rivals. The Dodgers have also won four of their last six against San Francisco, including two of three in northern California last weekend.
Sanchez is just 2-9 on the highway but has been the victim of some tough luck in his last two roadies, allowing a combined two runs on six hits in 12 innings but losing in Philadelphia (1-0) and Milwaukee (2-1). The Giants have lost six straight starts by Sanchez against the Dodgers, including all four this season. In his lone start in Los Angeles, he allowed five runs on six hits in five innings of an 8-0 loss.
San Francisco has not had much luck with Sanchez on the hill, currently on slides of 10-27 overall, 4-17 on the road, 5-14 against the N.L. West, 7-22 as a ‘dog and 0-6 when he gets five days off.
Padilla is making his fifth start in a Dodgers uniform and he’s been magnificent in the first four, allowing a combined six runs (five earned) in 22 1/3 innings. He faced these Giants on Saturday and allowed just one unearned run on three hits in six innings of a 9-1 beat-down. Padilla has held the Giants to two earned runs or less in six of his seven career starts against them.
With Sanchez pitching, the Giants are on “under” streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 on the road, 7-3-2 as a road ‘dog and 7-2-2 against the N.L. West, but as a team San Francisco is on “over” runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 after a loss and 5-2-1 in series openers. Los Angeles is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 17-6-3 overall, 10-2-2 at home, 12-5-2 against the N.L. West, 6-1-3 in series openers and 9-2-2 as a home favorite. Finally, the “over” is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
L.A. Angels (87-59) at Texas (80-65)
The Rangers trail the A.L. West leading Angels by 6½ games and will try to cut into that lead in the opener of this crucial three-game series at Rangers Ballpark when they send Tommy Hunter (8-3, 3.33 ERA) to the mound opposite Los Angeles lefty Scott Kazmir (8-8, 5.32).
The Angels pulled out a 4-3 victory in Boston on Thursday to avoid a three-game sweep at Fenway Park, but they’re still just 2-4 in their last six games and on further slides of 1-4 on the road and 1-5 on the road against winning teams. On the bright side, Los Angeles has won five of seven against A.L. West rivals.
Texas has lost four in a row and five of six on its current nine-game homestand, scoring only one run in its last four contests. Oakland swept the Rangers this week, outscoring them 19-1. Despite their recent struggles, the Rangers are on positive streaks of 14-5 on Fridays, 17-7 at home against teams with winning records and 23-8 at home against southpaws.
The Rangers have dominated Los Angeles this season, winning nine of 12, including five of six in the Lone Star State.
Kazmir, acquired from the Rays in late August, is making his fourth start for the Halos, and he’s looked very sharp in the first three, allowing four runs in 19 1/3 innings (1.86 ERA). He’s coming off Sunday’s 3-2 home victory over the White Sox as he gave up two runs in six innings.
Kazmir has had great success in nine career starts against the Rangers, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each game, with the Rays going 8-1 (1-1 this season). He’s 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA in those nine starts, including 2-1 with a 2.52 ERA in four outings at Rangers Ballpark
Hunter is 6-2 with a 3.34 ERA at home this season and he’s coming off Sunday’s complete-game 7-2 home victory over the Mariners yielding the two runs on six hits. The Rangers have won six of Hunter’s last eight starts and three straight when he’s in front of the home crowd. Texas is also 7-1 when he goes off as a favorite and 6-2 when he opens a series.
It’s been nothing but “unders” for the Angels lately, including 17-4-1 overall, 8-1 on the road, 5-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 against A.L. West teams and 6-1-1 against teams with winning records. The under is also 11-5-1 when Hunter starts for the Rangers and 6-1-1 when he takes the hill as a ‘dog. As a team, Texas has stayed below the total in 36 of 54 at home, 77 of 117 overall, 40 of 60 as a favorite and 36 of 53 against left-handed starters. However, the over is 5-3 in the last eight matchups in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Brian Hansen
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Boise St. at Fresno St.
Prediction: Under
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Last year's game had a total of 57 and finished with 71 points. Broncos have been playing great defense this year though and Under is 2-0 in their games. Under is also 6-3 the last nine times that Boise played as a road favorite. Want more? Under is 10-5 when Fresno played in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. Go UNDER!
Jeff Scott Sports
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3 UNIT PLAY
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Boise State/ Fresno State Under 53.5
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When people think of Boise they immediately think offense, but this team allowed just 12.6 ppg last year and 8 total points in their first 2 games this year. Fresno did shutout an FCS team, before a wild one vs Wisconsin and they are ranked 11th in the nation in pass defense eficiency. Fresno will look to run more at home to keep the potent Boise offense off the field and that will help eat the clock.These teams have put up a ton of points in recent meetings, but i really don't see that happening here.
D&D Sport Information
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Boise St at Fresno St
Pick: Fresno St
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Boise St is off the duck pond and away from the friendly field. Fresno St gave a great effort and got the cover vs a BIG 10 road foe in Wisconsin last Saturday and will be up for this game. We have posted far more FREE WINNERS than losers and I believe this will be another W in free play land to start the weekend.
Karl Garrett
Cubs +105 at ST. LOUIS
G-Man gave you another comp play winner on Thursday, as the Angels nipped the Red Sox.
Now 6-1 the last 7 days with my free plays!
Central Division rivals have at it on Friday, as the Cubbies take on the Cardinals.
Despite their loss last night, Chicago does bring wins in 7 of their last 10 into this weekend's set, while St. Louis has been going through a bit of a lull down the stretch, losing their last pair, and 5 of their last 6.
The Cards will go with John Smoltz, and while Smotlz has been OK since coming back to the senior circut, he has allowed 7 runs over his last 11 innings of work.
Ted Lilly has been rolling, allowing 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 6 starts, and he has won his last 3 starts, allowing just 2 runs over his last 20 innings of work.
G-Man opening with the Cubbies in this weekend set to continue the Cardinals slide.
2♦ CUBS
Stephen Nover
San Francisco at LOS ANGELES -150
Unless Tim Lincecum is pitching, I feel confident fading the Giants on the road where they are 10 games under .500.
The Dodgers may have overpaid to get Manny Ramirez, but they were astute in signing Rangers castoff Vicente Padilla for minimum wage. Padilla has rewarded the Dodgers' trust by going 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA.
Padilla just faced the Giants and Jonathan Sanchez on Saturday and beat them 9-1, yielding only one run and three hits in six innings. That was at AT&T Park.
Now Padilla draws Sanchez again, but this time at Dodger Stadium. The Giants are 4-17 in Sanchez's past 21 road starts. Sanchez is much worse on the road than he is at home. The erratic left-hander has had no success when facing Los Angeles.
Sanchez is 0-4 with a 5.86 ERA in seven career starts versus the Dodgers. He is 0-2 at Dodger Stadium with a 9.00 ERA. The Giants are 0-6 against the Dodgers the past six times Sanchez has started against them. Catcher Russell Martin particularly likes to hit Sanchez going six-for-13 against him in his career.
The Dodgers are 25-12 in their last 37 games against southpaw starters. The Dodgers have been dominant against NL West Division competion winning 40 of the past 59 times.
3♦ DODGERS
Jeff Benton
Boston at BALTIMORE
For Friday, take the Red Sox on the run line (-1½ runs) over the Orioles.
Boston had a seven-game winning streak snapped with Thursday’s tough 4-3 loss to the Angels, but there’s no reason to believe the Sox won’t get back on a track tonight and do so in dominating fashion. Why? Because this hasn’t been any kind of a rivalry at all in recent years. The Red Sox are 57-17 – that’s not a misprint: 57-17 – their last 74 meetings against the Orioles. Beyond that, they’re 64-27 – 64-27! – in their last 91 games at Camden Yards!
More recently, Boston has taken 16 of 18 against Baltimore since last Sept. 1. Of those 16 wins, 13 have been by multiple runs, including four straight wins since Aug. 1 of this season by scores of 4-0, 18-10, 10-0 and 7-5. Clay Buchholz got the start in two of those four recent wins (the 18-10 and 10-0 blowouts), and the young Boston right-hander has been absolutely dealing lately. Including the 10-0 home win over Baltimore, Buccholz has allowed just five runs in his last four starts covering 28 1/3 innings (1.27 ERA). Also, Boston has won six straight games behind Buchholz, with five of those being by two runs or more.
On the other hand, the Orioles are going with Jeremy Guthrie on the mound, and they’re 3-7 in Guthrie’s last 10 starts overall, 1-4 in his last five starts at home and, most importantly, 0-5 in his last five starts against Boston (four of those five decided by multiple runs). Finally, while the Orioles have been playing out the string since June, the Red Sox have the A.L. wild-card berth in their sites, so when it comes to the motivational angle, that belongs to Boston, too. Throw in the fact that Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon is fresh and available, and this almost seems too easy. Take the visitor and lay the 1½ runs.
5♦ BOSTON -1½
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Angels at TEXAS (even)
The Angels brought home a FREE winner Thursday with a victory over the Red Sox in Boston. Tonight I've got the Angels involved again, only this time they'll be falling to the Rangers.
The Rangers are in must-win mode. They have looked like crap lately and the scheduling gods have handed them this three-game set - in Texas - to get back into the A.L. West race. Play Texas tonight behind the pitching of Tommy Hunter (8-3, 3.33 ERA).
Texas trailing in the division by 6.5 games, gets to face an Angels' team that had to fly cross country on Sunday night, play the Yankees on Monday and then a three-game set in Boston through Thursday. Now they hop on a plane and fly half way back across the country to Texas to face a Rangers' team that knows it has to win at least two of three to stay in this race.
I know the Rangers have dropped four in a row and only scored one run in those four games, but this one is different. This series means everything to them and they know they can beat the Angels, winning nine of the 12 played this season, including five of six in Texas.
Hunter is 6-2 at home and just threw a complete-game against Seattle on Sunday, allowing two runs on six hits. Texas has won six of his last eight outings and three straight in Arlington. They are 7-1 when he starts as a favorite and they will get him some runs in this one.
Scott Kazmir (8-8, 5.32) goes for the Angels for the fourth time since coming over from Tampa. Kazmir had never lost to the Rangers in his career until this year, so Texas knows it can get to the southpaw. Los Angeles has struggled on the road lately, going 1-4 on the highway and 1-5 on the road against winning teams.
Play Texas tonight in this must-win for the Rangers.
2♦ TEXAS
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees +110 at SEATTLE
Our free play run stands at 34-20-3 the last 57 days.
For Friday night, we will take the Yankees as they pay their last visit of the season on the Mariners.
New York has been able to win 15 of their last 20 road games, and while starter AJ Burnett has not been the "ace" the Yankees thought they were getting when they inked him to that huge off-season contract, you know that he is more than capable of going out there and mowing the Mariners down this Friday night.
Seattle just played a lengthy game yesterday against the White Sox, and could find their bats a little sluggish this evening.
Felix Hernandez has been on-fire over his last 3 starts, allowing just 1 earned run over his last 22 innings of work, but the fact remains the M's are just 4-14 the last 18 times they have faced the Yankees, including 2-5 this season.
The last time Hernandez faced the Yankees, New York scored 6 times in 6 innings, as Felix absorbed the loss.
Play on the Yans to grab the weekend opener.
4♦ NY YANKEES
Michael Cannon
NY Yankees +105 at SEATTLE
Take the Yankees for the road win over the Mariners.
This is the rare opportunity to grab the Yankees as a small dog and I’m taking advantage of it.
I know Seattle’s Felix Hernandez is a stud and he’s been nearly untouchable lately, but the Yankees do have that formidable lineup that can go off on anyone at anytime.
Plus we have A. J. Burnett going for New York, and when he’s feeling it he can match anybody in the league pitch-for-pitch. The right-hander has electric stuff but has had problems putting it all together consistently over the course of an entire season. But when he’s on, look out.
Despite his success this year, Hernandez hasn’t had much luck against the Yankees. The right-hander is just 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA in four lifetime appearances against New York.
Burnett is 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA in four career games against Seattle, with 28 strikeouts in 26 innings.
Take the Yankees as they grab the road win.
3♦ NY YANKEES
Dominic Fazzini
N.Y. Yankees at SEATTLE -115
A.J. Burnett (11-9, 4.33 ERA) is not pitching like someone worth $82.5 million.
In fact, the Yankees right-hander has not been pitching like someone worth a damn. Over his last nine starts, Burnett is 1-5 with a 6.14 ERA. He allowed six runs and seven hits in seven innings Saturday in a 7-3 loss to Baltimore.
Burnett is 6-6 with a 5.12 ERA in 14 road starts this year.
Mariners ace Felix Hernandez, on the other hand, is a candidate for the AL's Cy Young Award. The 23-year-old right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.41 ERA in three starts this month, and gave up four hits in seven scoreless innings Sunday against Texas.
Hernandez is just 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA in four career starts vs. New York, but hasn't faced the Bronx Bombers since May 3, 2008.
Seattle is coming off of a 4-3 win over the White Sox in 14 innings Thursday, when it rallied from a 3-1 deficit in the ninth inning with two homers off Chicago closer Bobby Jenks. With the momentum of that victory and Hernandez wanting to give a good showing against the Yankees, I love the Mariners to take the first game of this series tonight.
4♦ SEATTLE
Tony Mathews
SF Giants vs. LA Dodgers
Play: Under 8
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The SF Giants will use starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez. Jonathan Sanchez has pitched well as of late. In fact, Jonathan Sanchez has a 3.31 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Jonathan Sanchez pitching another good game today.
The LA Dodgers will use starting pitcher Vicente Padilla. Vicente Padilla has also been pitching well as of late. In fact, Vicente Padilla has a 1.56 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Vicente Padilla also pitching another good game today.
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The following trends point to a low-scoring game:
Trend #1: The Under is 15-5-1 in the SF Giants last 21 games played on Friday.
Trend #2: The Under is 10-2-2 in the LA Dodgers last 14 home games.
Trend #3: The Under is 15-5-1 in LA Dodgers last 21 games following a win.
With all things considered, we should see a low-scoring game!
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Take the SF Giants/LA Dodgers Under 8
EZ WINNERS
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Boise State Broncos @ Fresno State Bulldogs
Play: Boise State Broncos -7.5
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Fresno State came up short against Wisconsin last week and if history repeats itself they will lose here as well. Wisconsin was a must win game for Fresno and their BCS busting hopes. They didn't get it done and now face another team hoping to crash the BCS in the Boise State Broncos. Fresno State has not bounced back from losses in big games recently and they are facing a Boise State team that is 7-1 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these two teams. Lay the points with the Broncos.
JIM FEIST
HOUSTON ASTROS / MILWAUKEE BREWERS
TAKE: OVER
There will be some well pitched games on the diamond today, but this won't be one of them. Neither bullpen is strong and both starters are struggling. That's a bad mix as Milwaukee is an offensive park. Houston starter Bud Norris (5-3) has a winning record, but an ERA of 5.44. Brewers starter Manny Parra has been even worse, a 10-game winner but with a 6.42 ERA. His walk ratio is awful, with 71 free passes in 130 innings! Look for an offensive show, play the Astros/Brewers Over the total.
Frank Jordan
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Boise State vs. Fresno State
Play: Boise State -7
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Free Football Friday isn't just for unranked games its for all games on Fridays that are of the football variety. Number 10 Boise State is 2-0, but both wins have come at home on the Smurf Turf. Fresno State is 1-1 and that one win did come at home. In this one look for Boise State to stay perfect as they win their first road test of the year behind the leadership of Kellen Moore who is throw at over a 60% completion rate and has over 500 yards through the first two games. Play Boise State