DC Riley
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Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
Play: Under 9
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The Kansas City Royals fresh off an impressive 9-2 win over the Central division leaders the Detroit Tigers look to build some momentum and finish the season on a positive note when they face off against the 72-74 CWS at U.S Cellular Field in Chicago Illinios. Taking to the hill for Chicago is big lefty Mark Buehrle (12-8/3.73ERA), Mark has enjoyed great success versus losing teams going 10-2 LT12 and 5-2 LT7 at home. Against the Royals he is 22-6 LT28 starts and 11-5-1 and 6-2-1 most recently. With neither team excelling with the bats as CWS rank 17th and KC 22nd, averaging a combine total of 8.6 runs this game shapes up to be solid projected under when u combine that both pitchers are ground ball hurdlers and the playing field is grass. Kansas has an 18-4-4 under record LT26 on the road when total is listed at 9-10.5 and the CWS are 5-0 under LT5 Vs. road teams with win rate less than .400 and 13-3 facing the American League Central.
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KC has found a late groove winning 7 of 9 and come off a fine performance from Ace starter and team leader Zach Greinke, with some confidence down the stretch and some execution from all players lets take this game to go well under the total as we look for defensive small ball style game.
Marc Lawrence
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies meet the Braves when J. A. Happ opposes Tim Hudson at Turner Field in Atlanta Friday evening. Happ enters tonight's contest with wins in 3 of his last 4 away team starts with a 2.21 ERA to show in those efforts. He's also 3-1 with a 1.63 ERA in his career teams starts against the Braves. Meanwhile, Hudson checks in at just 2-3 in his last five home team starts against Philadelphia with a 7.68 ERA . Back the best road tam in the big leagues here tonight. Back the Phillies with Happ over Hudson.
DUNKEL
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
The Cubs look to build on their 9-4 record in Ted Lilly's last 13 starts as an underdog. Chicago is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115)
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Game 901-902: San Diego at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stauffer) 14.358; Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.427
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Under
Game 903-904: Florida at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (VandenHurk) 14.980; Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.167
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); Under
Game 905-906: Washington at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martin) 14.654; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 13.618
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+140); Over
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Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 15.421; Atlanta (Hudson) 16.353
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-110); Under
Game 909-910: Houston at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 15.122; Milwaukee (Narveson) 15.064
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Over
Game 911-912: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 15.022; St. Louis (Smoltz) 14.494
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); Over
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Game 913-914: Colorado at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Marquis) 16.140; Arizona (Mulvey) 14.929
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Under
Game 915-916: San Francisco at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 16.961; LA Dodgers (Padilla) 15.881
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+140); Under
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Game 917-918: Boston at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 15.484; Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.884
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+150); Under
Game 919-920: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Richmond) 15.396; Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.992
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+170); Over
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Game 921-922: LA Angels at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 14.920; Texas (Hunter) 15.067
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Over
Game 923-924: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.336; Minnesota (Duensing) 15.007
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+135); Over
Game 925-926: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 16.039; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.235
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-235); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+215); Under
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Game 927-928: Cleveland at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 13.893; Oakland (Anderson) 16.958
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-160); Over
Game 929-930: NY Yankees at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.466; Seattle (Hernandez) 16.568
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Under
WNBA
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Los Angeles at Seattle
The Sparks look to follow up their Game One win and take advantage of a Seattle team that is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games following an ATS loss. Los Angeles is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+2 1/2)
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Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.620; Atlanta 114.175
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 174
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 169
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+6); Over
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Game 611-612: Los Angeles at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 114.648; Seattle 113.726
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 151 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 2 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+2 1/2); Over
NCAAF
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Boise State at Fresno State
The Bulldogs look to build on their 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 games as a home underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Fresno State is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Boise State favored by just 6. Dunkel Pick:Fresno State (+7 1/2)
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Game 103-104: Boise State at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 100.200; Fresno State 94.488
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 6; 56 1/2
Vegas Line: Boise State by 7 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+7 1/2); Over
CFL
Calgary at Hamilton
The Tiger-Cats look to bounce back from last week's loss to Toronto and build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. Hamilton is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has Calgary favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+4)
Game 471-472: Calgary at Hamilton
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 113.926; Hamilton 111.292
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 2 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Calgary by 4; 54
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+4); Under
Norm Hitzges
Boise State (-7.5) at Fresno State
People talk about how ferocious Boise's teams have been on their home blue carpet. But the Broncos covered 6 of 7 away games last year.
Fresno forced Wisconsin to overtime before losing last week and the deep history of overtime losers in a game the next week is not good (53-83-3 ATS when at home).
Boise, however, has not been good in this present spot going 0-10ATS as road favorites after winning a non-conference game the week before.
Much like our write up of Thursdy night's game, I simply refuse to oppose this Boise team which has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series. Fresno simply might not be good enough to keep this one close.
LEAN TO: BOISE MINUS THE POINTS
BIG AL
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Philadelphia at Atlanta
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As the Phillies get close to clinching their third straight National League East Division title, their attention turns to getting their pitchers (namely their starters) healthy for the playoffs. #1 on the priority list in that regard is rookie (and NL Rookie of the Year candidate) J.A. Happ. Happ was a tentative starter for tonight but it appears that he will in fact take the mound. He strained his intercostal muscle before his scheduled Sept. 7 against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park and missed that start and Saturday's start against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park. Left-hander Jamie Moyer pitched in Happ's place in both of those games, and he would've probably gone again tonight were Happ not able to. Speaking of injured pitchers, the Braves have gotten a boost from the sooner-than-expected return of righthander Tim Hudson. Hudson has been in position to win each of the three starts that he's made since returning from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery, however the Braves have taken two of the three games, both wins being on the road, while his team squandered his only home start, which was by far his best effort on Sept. 6 against the Reds. In his lone start against the Phillies last year, Hudson allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings. Atlanta have held their own at home this season against the defending World Champs, taking four of six games against them at Turner Field.
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PLAY ATLANTA
MTI Sports
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Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Under
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The Diamondbacks are 0-10 OU as a dog after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks and he Rockies are 0-6 OU as a favorite after a one run win. Consider these two UNDER.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -146
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I'll back Marquis and the Rockies against the no-namer Mulvey and the D-backs tonight. Mulvey will be making his second start of the season and I don't see it going much better than his first against a potent Rockies lineup. The right-hander pitched four innings and allowed six runs and 11 hits in a 9-2 loss to Milwaukee on Saturday. The Rockies have won 4 straight in this matchup and they are a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. After losing their last series to the Giants, who look to be their biggest challengers for the NL wild card, expect to see the Rockies bounce back strong with a game 1 win and a series win against the D-backs.
Ron Raymond
San Francisco / LA Dodgers: UNDER 8
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Keys to selection: When LOS ANGELES team Played as Home team as a Favorite - During a night game - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - Coming off a day game; the UNDER is 16-5-1 for the Dodgers in this role.
Kansas City / Chicago Wsox: UNDER 9
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Keys to selection: When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 5 years - Vs Division Opponent - During the month of September - Coming off a 2 game under - Coming off a lost in game 3 of a series - Scored 3 or less runs FOR in their last game; The UNDER is 12-5-0 for the Home Fave (CWS) in this spot the L5Y.
Cleveland / Oakland: OVER 8.5
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Keys to selection: When CLEVELAND team played as a Road team - After a non division game - During a night game - Coming off a Loss vs. AL WEST opponent - Coming off a 3 run lost; The OVER is 11-4-2 for the Indians in this spot.
Tom Freese
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Under
Detroit starter Rick Porcello has allowed 4 or less runs in 8 of his last 9 starts. Detroit is 20-4-2 UNDER their last 26 games as underdogs of +110 to +150. The Tigers are 8-2 UNDER their last 10 road games vs. lefty starters and they are 7-3 UNDER their last 10 Friday games. Minnesota starter Brian Duensing has allowed 8 runs total in his first 6 starts this year. Minnesota is 9-1-1 UNDER their last 11 games vs. righty starters. The Twins are 9-2-2 UNDER their last 13 home games and they are 17-6-4 UNDER 27 games overall. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
LT Profits
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
The Under is now 39-15-1 in the last 55 Chicago White Sox games overall, including 6-1 in their last seven games with none of those contests exceeding nine runs, and we look for that Under pattern to continue tonight vs. the Kansas City Royals.
Not only do the White Sox have their ace Mark Buehrle on the mound, but they are also struggling offensively, averaging only 3.00 runs over their last 10 games with a weak .245 team batting average. That is a combination that is quite conducive to an Under.
Buehrle slumped a bit right after pitching his Perfect Game earlier this year, but he has regained his fine form lately, tossing four consecutive Quality Starts while allowing two earned runs of less each time. He also has five Quality Starts out of six starts vs. the Royals since August of last year.
Now former first-round draft pick Luke Hochevar has been a disappointment at the Major League level, but he has had decent success vs. the White Sox. He has yet to allow more than four runs in his four starts vs. Chicago, and he could easily match that here given the current funk the Sox offense is in.
Given that we do not expect the Royals to do much of anything vs. Buehrle, if Hochevar merely duplicates his past outings vs. the White Sox, that should be enough to keep this game Under.
Pick: Royals, White Sox Under 9
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -135
Bottom Line: This is a crucial series in the A.L. Central race with Minnesota just 4 games back. I like the Twins to gain a little ground tonight as their opponent has not had much success in the Metrodome. The Tigers are 1-5 at Minnesota this season and just 27-59 in the last 86 meetings at the Metrodome. Minnesota's Brian Duensing is 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA in five starts since entering the rotation Aug. 22. I give him the edge against Porcello tonight as the Tigers are just 1-5 in Porcello's last 6 road starts. Take the Twins.
Matt Fargo
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Play ATLANTA BRAVES
Don’t look now but here come the Braves! Atlanta has won 7 straight games to move within 4.5 games in the National League Wild Card race. This is an impressive run as they lost 5 straight games in the beginning of the month and could have easily tossed in the towel. Catching the Phillies in the National League East is unlikely but not impossible as the schedule sets up well. 10 of the Braves’ 13 games after this series come against Washington and New York so anything is possible. The offense has been outstanding during this winning streak as they are averaging 6.4 RPG and hitting a healthy .275 over their last 10 games. The pitching has been even better as the staff has posted a 2.52 ERA over that stretch. Tim Hudson will be making his fourth start since coming back and he has been pretty solid for the most part. He is coming off a rough outing on the road at St. Louis but in his one start at home since returning, he tossed a quality start against the Reds by allowing just 1 run over 7 innings. He squares off against J.A. Happ who has been a very pleasant surprise in the Phillies rotation. He has a 2.77 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 19 starts including a 1.18 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 11 road starts. The problem is the Phillies aren’t winning: they’re just 10-9 overall and 6-5 on the road in his outings and that’s pretty poor considering how good Happ’s numbers are. Run support has been the issue on the road as Philadelphia has averaged only 2.8 RPG over his last 5 starts away from home. The Phillies are just 1-6 in their last 7 road games against a right-handed starter and they are 0-5 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a left-handed starter. Play Atlanta!
Jeff Saad
Yankees at Mariners
Felix Hernandez of the Mariners has been an ace in his career, but not against the Bronx Bombers. He is 1-3 with a 5.92 ERA against them and they come to town with another powerhouse offensive team. They are patient with King Felix, drawing 15 walks in 24 innings against him. A.J. Burnett of the Yankees is not ace right now, at 11-9 on the season and a 6.38 ERA his last three starts. Look for an offensive show, Play the Yankees/Mariners Over the total.
Tony Karpinski
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
The L.A. Dodgers are 42-30 on the road have won 3 straight and 7 of 10, and has Vincente Padilla on the mound with a 3-0 record and a 2.01 era facing San Francisco's Jonathon Sanchez with a 2-9 record and a 4.31 era on the road. Dodger bullpen has allowed a 2.08 era over their last 3 games while Giants Bullpen has been battered with a 6.87 era over their last 3.
The Dodgers bats averaging .275 vs leftys at home and S.F. is hitting .246 on the road. San Francisco is 10-27 in Sanchez's last 37 strats. I like the better offensive team at home with LA.
Mike Rose
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Boise State vs. Fresno State
Pick: Fresno State +7.5
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The Broncos went through the motions against a talent-deprived Miami of Ohio club last week to run their home winning streak to 21 in a row. QB Kellen Moore was solid completing 16 of 26 passes for 307 yards and 4 TDs. While it racked up 48-points to cover the lofty 40-point spread, Boise State only managed to gain 134 yards on the ground on just 28 carries. Defensively, the Broncos limited the Red Hawks to just 194 total yards of offense (38 on the ground) and picked MOH QB’s off four times.
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Last week’s OT loss in Madison that will no doubt eat at HC Pat Hill’s men all week, but it can also prove to be the motivator needed to finally end the program’s embarrassing losing streak to Boise State. Jr. QB Ryan Colburn had a monster game in Madison throwing for 289 yards and four TDs, but he also threw three INTs; a stat line like that will almost certainly see Fresno fall to Boise for the fourth year in a row with the Broncos usually making teams pay for their mistakes. RB Ryan Matthews has posted back-to-back 100 yard games to start the year, and will need to have another big game for the Bulldogs to pull off the upset.
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It’s been tough being a fan of the Bulldogs in their series with Boise State as the Broncos have dominated. Last year’s 61-10 dismantling of the Bulldogs couldn’t have sat well with HC Hill throughout the off-season. His kids put one heck of an effort together in a tough venue last week, and should build off it in this spot. Boise doesn’t look like the finely tuned machine CFB bettors have gotten so used to winning with over the last couple years; they have some flaws. Look for Fresno State to take advantage of those imperfections and finally have a chance to compete in this rivalry. There once was a day opponents hated traveling to Bulldog Stadium; I think those days might be making a comeback!