DUNKEL INDEX
NCAAF
Connecticut at South Florida
The Huskies head to South Florida tonight to take on a Bulls team that is 5-21-1 ATS in its last 27 home games. Connecticut is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+2)
Game 305-306: Connecticut at South Florida (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 74.395; South Florida 68.501
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 6; 42
Vegas Line: South Florida by 2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+2); Under
DUNKEL INDEX
MLB
Detroit at Kansas City
The Tigers open a series in Kansas City tonight where they are 6-1 in their last 7 contests against the Royals. Detroit is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-105)
Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.935; Cubs (Jackson) 14.033
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-300); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-300); N/A
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.736; Pittsburgh (Locke) 16.735
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130); Under
Game 905-906: Washington at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Fister) 15.721; Miami (Koehler) 14.436
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-145); Over
Game 907-908: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 14.751; Atlanta (Teheran) 16.227
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Under
Game 909-910: Arizona at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Anderson) 15.647; Colorado (Lyles) 14.219
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Over
Game 911-912: Cincinnati at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Holmberg) 13.363; St. Louis (Lackey) 15.388
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Under
Game 913-914: San Francisco at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Hudson) 15.527; San Diego (Despaigne) 14.076
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-135); Over
Game 915-916: Toronto at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 14.879; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.213
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under
Game 917-918: Boston at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Webster) 14.608; Baltimore (Gausman) 17.357
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-170); Over
Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 15.915; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 14.595
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Under
Game 921-922: Cleveland at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Bauer) 14.715; Minnesota (Hughes) 16.105
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Under
Game 923-924: Detroit at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.077; Kansas City (Vargas) 14.697
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-105); Over
Game 925-926: Seattle at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Walker) 16.588; Houston (Peacock) 15.152
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-145); Under
Game 927-928: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Bonilla) 14.653; LA Angels (Santiago) 16.397
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-200); Over
Game 929-930: Philadelphia at Oakland (9:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Buchanan) 15.004; Oakland (Lester) 13.941
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-260); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+220); Over
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
UConn/South Florida Under 47: Very hard not to like the Under here. The South Florida Bulls are a horrid offensive team as they have averaged just 300.3 ypg and just came off a game vs a suspect NC State defense and managed just 159 yards and 8 firstdowns in the game. Now they take on a UConn team that looks to have a top 20 defense on their hands this year. Bob Diaco is the head coach for this team after serving as DC at Notre Dame, so defense is his forte and he has a good one here. It really showed in their last game vs the high powered Boise State Broncos, as the Huskies held them to just 292 yards and 13 FDs in the game. How in the hell will the Bulls score in this game. If they do it won’t be much. The Huskies are not a good offensive team either, as they have averaged just 289.3 ppg and 16.7 ppg on the year. Bob Diaco will get the offense turned around eventually, but for now he will rely on his defense to win games. Both coaches are conservative and both teams play at a snails pace. All that should add up to a game in the 30’s at best.
BEST OF THE REST
UConn +2 Over SOUTH FLORIDA: Gonna go with the Huskies in this on. The Bulls are in for a very long season, especially thanks to a poor offense and that is key here because they put up just 159 yards and 8 FDs last week vs a mediocre NC State defense and now they will be facing a defense that may be a top 20 defense at the end of the year. If there is one thing that UConn HC Bob Diaco knows it is defense and will not give up a whole lot here vs the Bulls. The Huskies offense is weak as well, but they are taking on a Bulls defense that that has not been all that good this year. The offense are rather even in this game, but the Huskies get a HUGE edge on the defensive side of the ball and that is where this game will be won. Look for the Huskies to pull the minor upset in a low scoring game.
Sam Martin
Connecticut at South Florida
Prediction: Under
If series history is any indication, then we are in for a defensive slug fest on Friday night. Connecticut and South Florida have both come out of the gate in bad form to start the year - each owning a victory against FCS schools but going a combined 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ATS against FBS teams.
Last year the Bulls won at Connecticut by a 13-10 final score - falling well short of the high 40.5-point total. The year before, South Florida won 13-6 (pushing as a seven-point home favorite) at home - again falling well under the posted total of 46.5 points. Both rushing offenses this year have put up dismal numbers, and points will be at a premium again in this season's matchup!
Joe Gavazzi
Connecticut vs. South Florida
Play: Connecticut +2
Dominant technical trend in this game finds the S. Florida home-away-from-home Raymond James Stadium to be of little value. Consider the 3-18 ATS home log at a venue where visiting teams are primed to perform at a big time venue. The S. Florida struggles continue under 2nd year mentor HC Taggart. Witness last week’s 49-17 home loss to NC St. in which his Bulls were outgained 589-159. Though UConn was a 38-21 loser to Boise, that 3 TO result for the Huskies was more competitive than the final score, as they were outgained by the Broncos only 292-290. In a low scoring game, favor the underdog Huskies, who are in far better current form and making positive strides under 1st year HC Diaco, the former Notre Dame DC.
Rob Vinciletti
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -137
The Yankees have won 27 of the last 31 here at the stadium vs Toronto. They are 9-2 at home off a 1 run home win where they scored 4 or less runs. The Pitching is all in favor of New York as well. M. Buehrle goes for the Jays and he is 0-10 here the last few seasons including 0-2 this year allowing 8 earned runs in 9 innings. He has lost 7 of his last 10 road starts made in September. Kuroda for the Yankees has won 7 of his last 10 home September starts. He has gone 4-0 at home vs Toronto with 3 of those wins over Buehrle. He also has allowed just 7 runs in 26 innings in those 4 home wins vs the Jays. Look for the Yankees to get the win here tonight.
Jim Feist
Boston vs. Baltimore
Play: Over 8
Baltimore has a powerhouse team that just won the division, 7th in baseball in runs scored, third in slugging. They face a young Boston starter in Allen Webster (6.02 ERA) who has walked 26 in 46 innings with 44 hits allowed. The over is 10-4 in Webster's last 14 starts on grass. Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman has a 3.92 ERA at home and is also heavy on free passes, walking 37 in 103 innings. The over is 4-1 in the Orioles last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Ray Monohan
Argonauts vs. Lions
Play: Over 49½
The Argos are getting healthier at the receiver position and that should enable them to put some points on the board at BC on Friday night. The Lions have given up the fewest points in the CFL but the Argos have given up the most per game of any team in the league. When they met in Toronto last month they scored a total of 50. In a closer game this time I think they can squeeze in another touchdown.
Dave Price
Minnesota Twins -125
The Twins have the edge with Hughes on the hill. The right-hander is 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA in 30 starts and leads the majors with a strikeout-to-walk ration of 11.0. He's been tough on the Indians, going 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA in his last four starts against them. The Twins are 13-3 in Hughes' last 16 starts versus teams with a winning record and 6-1 in his last seven home starts versus winning clubs. Cleveland's Bauer has struggled on the road where he's 1-5 with a 5.22 ERA in 11 starts. He's also 0-2 with a 5.78 ERA in three starts versus Minnesota. The Indians have dropped four straight series openers and are 0-4 in their last four games as a road dog.
Dr Bob
Connecticut (+2) 22 SOUTH FLORIDA 19
If you’re staying home to watch this game on a Friday night then I have sympathy for you. These are two bad teams with ugly offenses and this doesn’t figure to be much entertainment for those without a wager on it – and even for those that do. The lesser of two evils appears to be Connecticut, who has been outgained by 78 total yards per game and 1.6 yppl by an average schedule of teams that include BYU and Boise State (Stony Brook brings the strength of schedule down to about average). USF, meanwhile, has been outgained by 142 total yards per game and 0.2 yppl by a schedule of teams that is about 7 ½ points worse than average. The Bulls are a decent running team but quarterback Mike White has been extremely inaccurate (32.6% completions), which has hurt the Bulls on 3rd downs (just 34% conversations). USF should have a tough time running against a very good Huskies’ run defense (just 3.8 yards per rushing play allowed) and White may not be good enough to take advantage of a bad Connecticut pass defense that has allowed 7.5 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average just 5.9 yppp against an average team. South Florida is probably going to need a couple of big pass plays to be competitive since I don’t see them sustaining many long drives.
Connecticut’s offense doesn’t run or pass well and the Huskies have managed just 4.1 yards per play in 3 games against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. USF’s defense is pretty good, rating at just 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) so I don’t expect much scoring from the Huskies either. My ratings actually favor USF by 1 point but the Bulls apply to a negative 63-128-2 ATS first conference game angle while Connecticut applies to a solid 70-31-2 ATS road bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s 21-38 loss to Boise State. I like Connecticut and lean under in this one.
Ben Burns
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -129
The surging Pirates can put away the Brewers for good this weekend while at the same time basically assure themselves of at least one of the two Wild Cards in the National League, if not a possible division pennant. I like their chances at picking up a win in this, the series opener.
The Pirates just swept three games from the Red Sox here at PNC Park to improve to 11-2 their last 13 games. They enter this three-game series with Milwaukee up 3.5 games in the standings and four in the loss column with 10 to play. So a sweep this weekend would all but end it for the Brewers, who have lost 19 of 27 including a 13-inning game last night at St. Louis.
Pittsburgh carries a 49-29 home record into this game. Also, over the last week, they have been dominating their opponents by outscoring them by a 3.5 run margin per game.
Yovani Gallardo has pitched well previously in Pittsburgh for the Brewers, but comes in with a 7.36 ERA and 1.84 WHIP his last three starts. He allowed six runs in just five innings the last time he faced the Pirates, just last month in Milwaukee.
The Pirates go with Jeff Locke. He had a 3.04 ERA in seven starts at home before losing his last one.
A key stat here is that despite only being 5-11 vs. Milwaukee this season, the Pirates have actually outscored them. Most of the losses have been close while the wins have been big. I'll look for the latter situation to play out here.
Will Rogers
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres +116
The San Diego Padres have won three of four on this home stand, and they host the Giants in Game 1 of a new series tonight. The Giants are still trying to hunt down the Dodgers in the NL West, but I don't fancy their chances of catching L.A., and I think they could struggle on the road at PETCO tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Tim Hudson will be on the hill for the visitors, and he's been playing through pain with a hip injury. He didn't look good in his most recent appearance, getting rocked for six runs on eight hits in just the first inning in a 17-0 loss to the Dodgers. In fact he's surrendered 15 runs on 23 hits over 12 innings in three straight losses. The Padres will counter with Odrisamer Despaigne, who has pitched very well at PETCO. The 27 year old is 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA at home through seven starts.
2. Padres Offense - With statistically the worst offense in the majors, rarely is there much positive to say about San Diego's offense. They have been decent lately though, and have totaled 15 runs in four games versus the Phillies.
3. X-Factor - The Padres are 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Jesse Schule
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Play: Seattle Mariners -137
The Mariners pulled within one game of a Wild Card spot with a win over the Angels last night, and they head to Houston to play a three game series versus the Astros. Houston has lost three straight, scoring a total of just three runs in those games.
Brad Peacock will toe the slab for the Astros, despite being bothered by a sore back the last few weeks. Peacock (4-8, 4.80 ERA) pitched five scoreless innings against the Mariners, in a game Seattle won 4-1 at Safeco on September 8. That was the most recent of three previous starts versus Seattle, and he's surrendered eight runs on 16 hits, going 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA in those contests. Kyle Seager is 6-for-18 with a home run and five RBIs lifetime versus Peacock.
The Mariners hand the ball to Taijuan Walker, who picked up his only win of the season in his debut at Houston back in June. Walker (1-2, 2.96 ERA) has worked mostly out of the bullpen since, but has been solid overall.
Walker has a career record of 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA versus Houston, while Peacock has posted a 5.94 ERA in seven previous starts versus the Mariners.
Jimmy Boyd
Minnesota Twins -127
The Twins are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against division rival Cleveland. Minnesota comes in off a big series win over the Tigers, that saw them take the final two to improve to 3-1 over their last 4. I look for the Twins to keep the momentum going in the series opener against the Indians.
I think Minnesota has a big advantage on the mound in this one. The Twins will send out Phil Hughes who is a bit underrated cause of the team he plays for. Hughes is 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.140 WHIP over 30 starts and enters with a red-hot 2.45 ERA and 0.864 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's also a dominant 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.974 WHIP over 6 career starts against the Indians.
As for Cleveland's Trevor Bauer, he's 5-8 with a 4.16 ERA over 24 starts, 1-5 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.534 WHIP over 11 road starts and has an ugly 5.78 ERA over 3 career starts (all this season) against the Twins.
The Indians do come in having won 3 straight, but there's a solid system in play suggesting a fade. Teams off 3 straight wins by 2 runs or less against an opponent after a win by 4 runs or more are just 23-45 since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Twins.
Steve Janus
Phillies/A's UNDER 7
This is a good spot to jump on the UNDER in tonight's matchup between the A's and Phillies. Both of these teams come in struggling at the plate. Philadelphia is averaging just 3.0 runs and hitting .218 as a team over their last 7 games, while the A's are only averaging 2.1 runs and hitting a mere .187 as a team over their last 7.
Phillies' starter David Buchanan comes in with a 2.20 ERA and 1.225 WHIP over his last 3 starts, while Oakland's Jon Lester has a 1.64 ERA and 1.091 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Lester hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in a single start since he gave up 3 back on 8/17 and Buchanan has went 6 straight starts allowing 2 earned runs or less.
Key Trends - UNDER is 11-3 in Lester's last 14 home starts, 15-4 in his last 19 starts in the month of September and 15-6 in his last 21 as a favorite of -110 or higher.
System - UNDER is 39-15 (72%) over the last 5 seasons in games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs where you have an NL starter with an ERA of 3.70 to 4.20 against an AL starter with a WHIP of 1.300 or better.