Bruce Marshall
Brewers at Pirates
Pick: Under
The Brewers are in a spot where they almost have to sweep this series at Pittsburgh to stay in the NL playoff race. But after a playoff-intensity series at St. Louis, we don't think the Brew Crew is about to surrender just yet. Though not especially sharp in recent outings, the Brewers' Yovani Gallardo has historically fared well at PNC Park, now 6-2 with a 1.44 ERA in 10 career starts at the confluence, most recently tossing seven innings in a 1-0 win June 8. After three lower-scoring games at Busch, more of the same tonight.
LT Profits
Philadelphia vs Oakland
Pick: Over 7
After going ‘over’ in three of four games in one pitchers’ park in San Diego, we look for the Philadelphia Phillies to go ‘over’ another low total in another cavern when they visit the Oakland Athletics. Much like last night, the Phillies’ starter does not justify this low total as David Buchanan has not pitched as well as his 3.75 ERA. He has a weak ratio of 5.54 strikeouts vs. 2.56 walks per nine innings and has been a bit lucky yielding a .274 BABIP, leading to just a 4.39 FIP. The difference is that the Athletics are starting ace Jon Lester, but unless he tosses a Complete Game, there is always the real possibility of an Oakland bullpen with a 4.44 ERA the last 10 games letting in a few tack-on runs to kill a low total. The ‘over’ is 11-2-5 in the Athletics’ last 18 interleague games.
Rocketman
Detroit vs. Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -113
The Detroit Tigers will take on the Royals in Kansas City tonight. Detroit is 84-68 overall this year while Kansas City has an 83-68 overall record on the season. Detroit is 138-211 since 1997 as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Kansas City is 18-5 at home when the money line is -100 to -125. Justin Verlander has not been his normal self as he is 13-12 with a 4.77 ERA overall this year, 7-7 with a 4.98 ERA on the road this season and 1-1 with a 6.05 ERA his last 3 starts. Jason Vargas is 11-9 with a 3.56 ERA overall this year. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City tonight!
Wunderdog
Cleveland @ Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -127
The Tribe made a gallant effort this season and contended for a long time, but as the sand sifts through the hour glass time is no longer on their side. They sit four games back of the second Wild Card playoffs spot, but with just 10 games remaining and two teams to pass, they have no realistic chance. Minnesota sits at 22 games under .500, but there is a catch. They have been 18-12 or a .600 team behind Phil Hughes who has seemed to have a rebirth with new scenery out of the Big Apple. Hughes has been even better of late as his control has been pinpoint, walking just one batter in his last six starts, and is off an 11 strikeout performance in his last outing. Hughes has a lot of incentive to go deep here as he picks up a cool half a million if he logs 210 innings this season, and needs 15 more in his last two starts. Go with Hughes and Minnesota.
Bob Balfe
Milwaukee +110
This is more or less a playoff series for Milwaukee. If they fail to do well against Pittsburgh they are done. The Pirates have been on a nice run, but look at who they have played. The next two weeks are going to make or break them. The Brewers do well against left handed pitching and I think Gallardo is a slightly better pitcher even though he has struggled his last few starts. These final few weeks really test a teams will power. The Brewers don’t want to miss out again. MLB starts to get relevant right about now. This should be a great series.
Tom Barton
Yankees vs Blue jays
Pick: Yankees -140
Some stats lie and some trends can mis lead people but with that said trends are trends for a reason. This play is as much about trends as anything else but let's first break down the play on the field. The Yankees are 4 games over .500 at home and while their playoff hopes are fading fast their is still a glimmer while the Jays have been passed because of their poor recent play. The Blue Jays have totaled just 12 runs during a season-high five-game losing streak. Now they turn to Mark Buehrle and here is where the trends come in. Buehrle is 1-13 with a 6.14 ERA in 20 career starts against the Yankees, including 11 straight losing decisions dating back to April 2004. Buehrle's teams also have lost 10 straight at Yankee Stadium when he starts. Buehrle has also fallen apart lately as he is 0-3 with a 6.65 ERA in the last 4 starts. Hiroki Kuroda has always been solid at home and he gets a chance here again. Kuroda is 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA in his last six starts overall and is 6-2 with a 3.34 mark in his last nine versus Toronto
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +213 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals won last night 3-2 in 13 innings but it was more a case of extremely poor managing by Ron Roenicke of the Brewers. Why Roenicke pulled Kyle Lohse with one out in the eighth is a mystery. Why he left Jonathan Broxton in there after Lohse in the eighth inning when Broxton couldn’t throw a strike is a mystery. Why be bunted with a leadoff double in the 11th is a mystery and why he chose to bunt again in the 12th after Pat Neshek walked the leadoff hitter on four pitches is also a mystery. St. Louis didn’t win that game; it was handed to them 5 times over. The Cardinals had three hits on Wednesday, six hits on Tuesday and they had two hits last night going to the eighth. Struggling miserably at the plate, the Cards will now face lefty David Holmberg. Holmberg pitched in relief before being inserted into the rotation and in two games in this much more comfortable role he has allowed just six hits and one run in 11.2 innings with nine K’s. Holmberg does bring some risk because he can be wild at times but at this price against a struggling lineup, he’s worth the risk.
We also can’t get past passing up a tag like this against John Lackey. Lackey had his last turn skipped after complaining of arm fatigue. Lackey has a 5.05 ERA since being traded to St. Louis on July 31. His 7.6 K’s/9 with Boston in 2014 has slightly dropped to 6.8 with St. Louis in eight starts. He's given up at least one jack in all but one game with the Cards and over his last five starts he has a WHIP of 1.43. Cincinnati is having a horrible year but they’ll now play in some relevant games against a contender and that’s a role many of the “also ran’s” step up in. The Reds swept the Cardinals back in Cincinnati just eight days ago and we would not count them out here. Big risk brings big rewards and this one isn't as big a risk as it may appear.
MIAMI +140 over Washington
Washington clinched the NL East on Wednesday and came in here last night and took the opener, 6-2. What usually follows a game clinching win is a bit of a letdown for a game or two and since that didn’t happen yesterday, this is a pretty good spot for that to occur with Doug Fister on the hill. Fister is beginning to labor. His swing and miss rate is low at 6% and he’s throwing less strikes the past month. He’s only walked 35 batters all year but he’s walked eight over his last five starts in 30 frames. He’s also hit 22 batters since the second half of last season, which has inflated his ERA. OK, maybe not, but they left plenty of bruises. Fister has stopped hitting people but he’s suddenly having trouble with LH batters. Despite his decent skills, Fister’s pitch-to-contact profile is a risky way to roll and he’s had trouble in the past against current Marlins with an oppBA of .325.
Tom Koehler has what might appear on paper to be a tough matchup against the NL East Champion Nationals. Koehler has been at his best at home, with a 2.68 ERA, compared to 4.63 on the road. In two starts against Washington, he has a 1.38 ERA in 13 IP. The Nationals will probably give their regulars some rest down the stretch, so Koehler may not face a fully-loaded Nationals lineup. Koehler’s recent profile is trending the right way and we also like the price in this one.
PITTSBURGH -1½ +173 over Milwaukee
Frankly, we could not care less about who is on the mound for the Pirates here because this one is all about fading the reeling Brewers and the garbage pitcher that they’re sending out today.
The Brewers gave up five hits over the first 16 innings in St. Louis the past two games and lost them both. Prior to taking two of three from the reeling Reds and defeating Miami in a series, Milwaukee had dropped 18 of its past 21 games. These Brewers are in big trouble and it sure can’t help their state of mind when they see the Pirates winning every night. Pittsburgh is the hottest team in baseball with four wins in a row and 11 victories over its past 13 games. The Bucs are scoring six a night with regularity and they figure to put up another crooked number here against Yovani Gallardo. It's clear that Gallardo isn't the same pitcher he used to be due to his inability to generate K’s. That becomes frustrating after a while and now Gallardo has lost his control because he’s afraid to come at hitter’s. Over his last 26 innings, Gallardo has an awful BB/K split of 12/13. Over that same span his swing and miss rate was 4%, which is another indicator of a “dead” arm. Gallardo has surrendered four jacks over his last three games, not to mention 21 hits, 15 runs and six walks over 14 innings. The Brewers have lost each of Gallardo’s last five starts and now this stiff is out of gas. The Pirates can put the Brewers out of their misery with a three-game sweep and it would be a complete shock to us if they didn’t do exactly that starting with this one. Hell, we’d even lay 2½ runs in this one but the +173 at -1½ runs is pretty juicy on its own.
Chicago +115 over TAMPA BAY
Jose Quintana hit a rough spot for much of August but this kid is such a student of the game that he’s rebounded with a resounding bang. In three starts since September 1, Quintana has allowed just four runs over 20 innings against three pretty good lineups in Minnesota, Cleveland and Detroit. Over that span he has a BB/K split of 3/23 and an off the charts swing and miss rate of 21%. In addition to his strikeout spike, Quintana has also benefitted from a big jump in ground balls in 2014 and one other important difference: platoon splits. Jose Quintana is on the verge of stardom and he and the South Side offer up perhaps the best value on today’s board against Jeremy Hellickson.
Hellickson has been like the girl in the nursery rhyme this season. When he's been good, he's been very, very good; but when he's been bad, he's been horrid, as shown by a 55%/45% dominant start/disaster start split. At Tropicana Field, Hellickson has mostly been horrid, with 4 disaster outings in 6 starts, and a 4.94 ERA. The White Sox are above average on the road, ranking 5th in the league with a .713 OPS. Invest.
Pass CFL & NCAAF
Jack Jones
Tigers/Royals Over 7.5
The books have set the bar too low in this game tonight between the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals. Both Justin Verlander and Jason Vargas are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers when they do not deserve it.
Verlander has been atrocious this season, going 13-12 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in 30 starts. Opponents are hitting .311 against Verlander over his last six starts, during which he's posted a 6.00 ERA. Verlander is 1-2 with a 6.98 ERA in his last three starts against Kansas City.
Jason Vargas his having a solid season overall at 11-9 with a 3.56 ERA, but he has struggled of late with the pressure on. The left-hander is 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA in his last two starts, one of which came against Detroit. Vargas is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts against the Tigers.
The OVER is 7-1 in Tigers last eight games following an off day. The OVER is 11-4 in Verlander's last 15 starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5. The OVER is 10-4-1 in Tigers last 15 road games. The OVER is 4-0-1 in Royals last five games overall. The OVER is 4-1-1 in Verlander's last six starts vs. Royals.
Nick Parsons
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -145
The Yankees seek their 16th victory in 17 games when facing Mark Buehrle tonight. The Yankees have dominated Buehrle throughout his career. He is 1-13 with a 6.14 ERA in 20 career starts against the Yankees, including 11 straight losing decisions dating back to April 2004. This year against the Yankees he is 0-3 with a 6.65 ERA in four outings. He has just one win in his last eight starts overall.
On a Downside, the Yankees have totaled only one run for Hiroki Kuroda in his last two starts -- both New York defeats. He is 10-9 with a 3.81. In his last start he gave up one run over seven innings, but the bullpen blew his lead in a 3-2 defeat at Baltimore. He is 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA in his last six starts overall and is 6-2 with a 3.34 mark in his last nine versus
The Blue Jays have totaled just 12 runs and batted .194 during a season-high five-game losing streak.
The Yankees re hitting the ball and love to hit against Buehrle. They will give Kuroda enough run support for him to get the victory.
Harry Bondi
UCONN (+2) over South Florida
Both teams are off to disappointing 1-2 starts to the season, but a look inside the numbers shows that UConn has been the better team overall, especially on the defensive side of the ball. First off, the Huskies have played the much tougher schedule, with losses to BYU and Boise State. And in last week's 38-31 loss to Boise St as a 15-point dog, UConn was actually dead even in stats and the Broncos scored on a fumble return, interception return while another TD came on a drive of only 37 yards after a Connecticut turnover. Bottom line: UConn has the much better defense here tonight and is getting points against a South Florida team that's failed to cover its last eight games as a favorite and is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games. Take the points.
OC Dooley
Brewers / Pirates Over 7.5
On the mound for Pittsburgh tonight is Jeff Locke who due to excellent run support has gone a dazzling 11-2 OVER the total in his career when taking the mound at NIGHT (average combined runs scored per start “eleven”). Odds are that Locke will get sufficient run support again this evening since Pittsburgh has two players that have been among baseball’s best in slugging percentage long term. Since the All Star Break in slugging percentage Starling Marte (#1) and Josh Harrison (#5) are at or near the top of the major league list. While Harrison is in the running for a batting title with a .319 average Marte in the past thirty-nine games has swatted 8 homers and has a .400 average in the month of September. Ex-Pirate Aramis Ramirez also has a lofty batting average when facing his old mates and Milwaukee as a team finally gets a break after dealing with some red-hot St. Louis starting pitchers during the week