Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 2, 2011

Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

When the Cardinals host the Reds in the opener of this three-game series at Busch Stadium Friday evening they will send the steady serves of Chris Carpenter to the mound knowing he is in strong KW form with four walks and 22 strikeouts in his last three starts. Carpenter is also 12-2 in his last 14 team starts in this series, including 7-1 at home. With that, look for Carpenter to improve to 12-4 of late at home during the month of September this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.

David Chan

Rangers @ Red Sox
PICK: Under

I bet value where I see it and expect to see this total sneak below the posted number.

Derek Holland (12-5, 4.30 ERA) gets the start for the Rangers.

Holland gave up a single run, off eight hits over 6 2/3's frames of work last Friday vs. the Angels; he struck out six and issued two walks, and his team held on for the 11-7 victory.

Over his last three starts he's 2-1 with a 4.34 ERA.

Holland will be opposed by Andrew Miller (6-1, 4.33 ERA) who makes a third start in relief of Tim Wakefield.

Miller remains in the starting rotation after allowing just one earned run over 11 2/3's frames of work spanning two recent starts.

And as site regulars know, "recent performance" always plays a big part in my handicapping repertoire; so with these two quality starters going head to head on Friday night, you may want to consider a second look at the "under" in this one!

Jim Feist

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
Pick: New York Mets

For the second straight year, veteran knuckleballer R.A. Dickey has been very good, with a 3.57 ERA with few walks (44 in 174 innings). He's also on a roll, with a 2.21 ERA his last three starts walked 2 in 20 innings with 14 strikeouts. The Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record and 6-2 in Dickey's last 8 starts as an underdog. The Washington Nationals are 3-7 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record and 1-4 in Ross Detwiler's last 5 starts. Play the NY Mets.

Scott Spreitzer

Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

While their chances of overcoming a 7 1/2 game deficit in the NL Central are not good, the Redbirds certainly haven't given up when it would have been easy to do so. Instead, St. Louis just swept a 3-game series in Milwaukee. With only three games left against the Brewers, the Cards understand they have to win every game they possibly can against the rest of the teams on their schedule. I believe they're up to the task in Friday's matchup between Chris Carpenter and Johnny Cueto. Tonight marks the first time since July 31 that Cueto will take the mound against a team with a winning record. And while he has put up tremendous numbers this season overall, he has been knocked around a bit by the Cards in his career, posting a 4.64 ERA in 12 starts. He has fared better against his NL Central rival this season, but in six starts at tonight's venue, Cueto has been rocked for a 6.11 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and a .333 BAA. Meanwhile, Carpenter has absolutely owned Cincinnati in his career going 14-4 in 22 starts, while sporting a 2.23 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a terrific .199 BAA. Carpenter was rocked by Pittsburgh last time out, but was as sharp as a tack in his previous four starts. With the Cardinal offense in high gear, look for the veteran hurler to come through with a big "staying alive" win on Friday night. I'm laying the price with the Cardinals.

Rob Vinciletti

Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

Boston fits the solid 18-4 system that simply plays on home favorites vs an opponent off a home favored by 5 or more runs if they left 4 or less men on base. Boston lost a tough one last night to The Yankees. However they are still averaging 6.7 runs per game the past week and have won 8 of 12 at home when the total is 10 to 10.5. They have won 9 of 10 when A. Miller starts. Texas has Holland. In his only start here Holland lasted just 4+ innings getting pulled after allowing 4 runs. Miller shut Texas down last week in 6+ innings not allowing a run. Look for Boston to take the opener.

Frank Jordan

Raiders vs. Seahawks
Play: Under 38

Neither team is really tearing the cover off the ball as through three games these two teams are a combined scored just 92 points. These two are somewhat rebuilding and a running teams. Look for a lower scoring, field position battle keeping scoring to a minimum. Play the Under

EZWINNERS

New York Yankees -180

The Yankees starting pitcher Ivan Nova is a perfect 6-0 in his six starts after being recalled from AAA on July 30th. In a span of eleven starts overall, Nova has not lost a decision and has pushed his season record to an outstanding 14-4 with an ERA of 3.96. I expect another solid outing from Nova in this game and I expect the Bronx Bombers to provide him with some nice run support against the Blue Jay's starting pitcher Brandon Morrow. Morrow has had a hell of a time keeping the ball in the part in his last two starts. Morrow has allowed five homeruns and eleven runs in his last ten innings of work while losing four out of his last five starts. I look for the Yankees stacked lineup to give Morrow trouble here as well. The Blue Jays have lost six out of the last seven meetings between these two teams played in New York and I look for those struggles to continue. Play on New York.

David Banks

TCU / Baylor Over

The 2011 CFB season kicks off for both the TCU Horned Frogs and Baylor Bears in Waco Friday night from Floyd Casey Stadium where the respective programs will collide for the second year in a row; kick-off live on ESPN is set for 8:00 ET.

The Horned Frogs enter their 2011-12 campaign off a brilliant effort a season ago that saw them go a perfect 13-0 SU en route to capping the season with a Rose Bowl victory over the Wisconsin Badgers. HC Patterson’s club finished up #2 in the AP Poll and even garnered some votes as the #1 team. This season looks to be a rebuilding year in Fort Worth with only eight starters returning from last year’s team. Still, TCU has shown a penchant for excellent recruiting over the years, so the Horned Frogs will by no means be overlooked by any opponent it faces this season. MLB Tank Carder and his mates are a perfect 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS on the road the last two seasons.

After managing just 4-8 SU records each of the first two seasons with HC Art Briles at the helm of the Bears program, Baylor went 7-6 SU last season and punched its ticket to a bowl game for the first time since 1994. Though it got its doors blown off by Illinois in the Texas Bowl as a one-point favorite (38-13), there’s still plenty of hope of another winning season in Waco. And why not, with QB Robert Griffin III in control of an offense that broke a multitude of school records last year with nine starters on that side of the ball returning. The problem for the Bears last year came on the other side of the ball though, as it allowed opponents to score an average of 30.5 PPG and only returns five bodies from that unit.

Baylor will no doubt take the field on Friday night extremely motivated to exorcise the demons that still remain from the 45-10 woodshed beating it absorbed at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth last season. However, TCU’s covered each of its L/4 confrontations with the in-state rival Bears, while Baylor is just 3-13 SU & 6-10 ATS the L/16 times it went off the board dogged.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -145

The Cardinals enter their series with the Reds with plenty of momentum after pulling off a 3-game sweep at first place Milwaukee. Cincinnati, meanwhile, limps in after losing 4 in a row to Philadelphia. Look for the Cards to keep it rolling tonight with former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter on the hill. He's 14-4 (16-6 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.23 in 22 career starts against the Reds. He held Cincy to a single run in 16 innings of work in a pair of wins in July. The Cardinals are 12-2 in Carpenter's last 14 starts vs. the Reds and 7-1 in his last 8 home starts against them. It's also worth noting that the Reds are 19-45 in their last 64 meetings in St. Louis. Take the Cards.

Matt Fargo

Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres

San Diego returns home following a dreadful roadtrip where it won its opener in San Francisco but backed that up with seven straight losses. Aaron Harang takes the hill for the Padres and he has been one of the most consistent pitchers despite a recent rough stretch. He went six straight starts without a quality outing but has come back with two straight quality performances to bring his ERA back down to 3.92 on the season. Overall he is 12-4 with 14 of 23 starts being quality outings including nine of 13 at home. Colorado sends Kevin Millwood to the mound and he has pitched decent in his four starts since being added to the rotation. He has two quality outings in those four starts with another just missing by two-thirds of an inning. His ERA sits at 4.26 over 25.1 innings but the real issue is his inability to keep the ball in the park as he has allowed six home runs over that span. He posted a 5.12 ERA in 16 road starts with the Orioles last season and the Padres are 4-0 in their last four home games against right-handed starters. 3* San Diego Padres

Ray Monohan

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -1.5

At 7:05PM ET tonight we get the White Sox locking horns with the Tigers. The pitching matchup features Tigers RH Justin Verlander (20-5, 2.38 ERA) vs. White Sox LH John Danks (6-9, 3.63 ERA). Verlander will take aim at win No.21 vs. the White Sox who are trying their best to keep pace with Detroit in the AL Central. John Danks (6-9, 3.63) is coming off his best start of the season after tossing a complete game in a 3-0 win in Seattle, scattering three hits while striking out 10 and walking one. MLB betting players have watched Danks struggle badly this season, but he has been coming around and over his last nine starts, Danks has allowed two runs or less seven times. The 26-year-old southpaw has split a pair of meetings with the Tigers in 2011, posting an ERA of 3.00, and he is 1-3 in five starts all-time in Detroit with a 5.53 ERA, losing in his lone trip to the Motor City this season. Verlander (20-5, 2.38) didn’t have his best stuff in a 6-4 win in Minnesota, but he did enough to give his team a chance by allowing four runs on eight hits over six innings, striking out six and walking three. He has to be considered a strong favorite to win the Cy Young. Even though pitchers don’t win the MVP (the last pitcher to do so in the American League was Roger Clemens in 1986), Verlander has to be considered when you think about what he has meant to the Tigers. Lay a wager on Detroit on Friday. DET are 10-4 in their last 14 overall. DET are 7-3 in their last 10 games on grass. DET are 8-1 in Verlanders last 9 starts vs. CHW.

David Malinsky

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are 16-8 over their last 24 games and have closed to within 5.5 games of Detroit in the A.L. Central. John Danks has pitched as well as anyone in the Major League’s over the last three months. That makes this a major overlay that we can exploit.

The oddsmakers are treating Danks like his full-season 6-9/3.63 is the proper definition, but are missing the boat. We went into details of his turnaround in cashing that easy 4* ticket behind him in his last outing, and since June 1st it has been a sparkling 6-1/2.03, with Chicago going 9-2 in those 11 starts. Only three times in those 11 outings did his hits allowed exceed his strikeouts, and since the All Star break it has been 49 K’s vs. only 10 W’s. Now not only is he well-rested, with five days off, but the entire bullpen behind him is fresh.

Of course Justin Verlander carries weight here, on his way to a Cy Young award. But as good as that 20-5/2.38 is he has had help. Of the 115 pitchers that have thrown at least 125 IP his BABIP of .237 is #1, while he is #97 in difficulty of batters faced. Yes, his stuff is brilliant, but it has also been a good ride. Given that BABIP ratio, and the fact that he is already at 215.2 IP, he is going to have a tough time maintaining that allowance rate, especially off of 121, 116 and 120 pitches in his last three outings. And the White Sox show no intimidation at all against him – he only sports a 10-10/4.45 head-to-head, and even in his brilliant 2011 run it has only been a 4.03 over four starts 29 IP. We will gladly take this generous price.

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +160 over N.Y. YANKEES

The result of this game does not matter. If we lose, we lose but in terms of a gross overlay, you really need not look further than this one. Brandon Morrow taking back 60 cents against Ivan Nova after the Yanks series win in Boston is about as sweet as it gets. Those games against Boston are taxing, and intense and for the Yanks, this last series was also gratifying. Nova made the 2011 rotation out of spring training and though an ankle injury cut his July short, he's still won 14 of his 22 starts. Say what you want about Yankee run support (for the record, it's been a whopping 6.89 RPG) Nova still has pitched good enough to get those "W"s. However, while Nova has shown several incremental improvements in this his second time through the league, his win total still far outpaces his skills. In 2011, control and strikeout rate have slipped a bit in tandem -- the net has meant no significant change in his sub-par command. Groundball growth has been a positive, and likely plays a large part in his xERA gains. For the second year, Nova has given up more hits than innings pitched and batters are hitting .272 against him, which does no favors for his WHIP (1.37). Until/unless he misses a few more bats, Nova looks like a back-end innings eater at best. Don't be smitten by the wins. Brandon Morrow does not have the surface stats of an ace (4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), but some of his skills are elite (164 k’s in 143 IP). The root cause of his problems is a strange home/road split. He has posted a 6.87 ERA and 1.58 WHIP at home due to a 39% hit rate and 56% strand rate. However, on the road, Morrow is 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA and when you break it down there is a ton of profit potential on him. Win or lose, we’re going with the best of it, as the Jays streaky bats have once again woke up. Play: Toronto +160 (Risking 2 units).

Seattle +132 over OAKLAND

The first thing to note here is that the Mariners are 9-4 versus the A’s this year. Advantage Seattle. Also, the A’s have lost five of its last six while the Mariners just split a four-game series with the Angels. Advantage Seattle. And then there’s Guillermo Moscoso, perhaps the biggest fraud in all of MLB. Moscoso has been taking a regular turn in the rotation and the results have been pretty good overall: 6 W, 3.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. But don't be fooled. This is a ticking time bomb, one who has been hit hard in five of his last eight starts. His strikeout rate, command, 56% fly-ball%, and 5.16 xERA are all on the wrong side of acceptable. CAVEAT EMPTOR (that means "AVOID"). Jason Vargas is another finesse lefty that pitches to contact and is not a good risk as a favorite. However, this is absolutely nothing to do with wagering on Vargas and everything to do with taking back a tag against Moscoso. Play: Seattle +132 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

BAYLOR +4/+150 over Texas Christian

The first lone football game of the year and the books made the Horned Frogs an enticing small favorite on the road in game that is going to attract a ton of money. TCU beat the Bears last season by a whopping 45-10 and they also have the second longest winning streak in the nation, which now stands at 13. On the road, the Frogs own the nations longest winning streak, which now stands at 11. Of course the Frogs look like the right play but the line says otherwise and that’s something that should never be ignored. What we know for sure is that the Horned Frogs lost their most important player in QB Andy Dalton. Now the Bears are forced to go to sophomore Cast Pachell, a guy with very little experience. The Horned Frogs' Rose Bowl season was the culmination of a decade of program-building. They now lose 26 lettermen, and are largely green at every position group except running back and linebacker. TCU has the valuable commodities of talent and coaching, but no, this program does not just reload -- not with only eight returning starters to try to fashion an encore to one of the greatest seasons in school history. The Frogs have been ranked highly (14) this year based on last year’s performance and in no way are they the 14th best team in the country. Baylor is much more comfortable in its own offensive skin than is an Andy Dalton-less TCU, with dynamic Robert Griffin III guiding an attack well-stocked with talented veterans of multiple years in the system. The Bears' defense can hold its own against a TCU offensive line in major transition. Baylor has the strongest momentum and buzz around the program in a long time and will be looking to make a statement in this prime time home opener. Art Briles' Bears are ready to win a game like this against a way overvalued Frogs. Play: Baylor +4 (Risking 1.1 units to win 1) Play: Baylor +150 (Risking 1 unit).

Big-10 Conference Winner

Michigan St. +10-1

This is truly a cashable ticket with tremendous value, as the Spartans are as good as any team in this conference. The Buckeyes are a team in transition with no QB, a new coach and a ton of inside turmoil. Forget them. Northwestern has a great offense but no defense so forget them too. The biggest obstacles in the division will be Nebraska and Wisconsin but one is a newcomer to the division and the other, Wisconsin always find a way to lose games they should win. Wisconsin’s defense is tremendous and that makes them tough but it’s an offense that is one-dimensional and that’s never a good thing. The Badgers offensive game plan will be run left, run right and run up the middle. As for the Spartans, Kirk Cousins is one of the few returning QB’s in the conference. MSU also has a great running game and some can’t miss NFL prospects on defense. They’re well coached and they’ve recruited well for two years running. The Spartans have seven home games and five road games and could easily run the table at home with games against Youngstown St., Florida Atlantic, Central Michigan, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Indiana. At worst they lose to Wisconsin and go 6-1 at home. The Spartans five road games are at Notre Dame, Ohio St., Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern. All games are winnable but they’re also tough so give them two wins for sure, maybe three and possibly four. Nine wins could win this division and the Spartans are very capable of 10. Things have to go right but the fact that Penn St and Ohio St. are both 5½-1 to win the division shows just how much value is on the Spartans, as we can almost guarantee you that Michigan State finishes ahead of those two. Play: Michigan State +10-1 to win the Big-10. (Risking 1 unit).

B.C. Lions –2 over TORONTO

Game opened as a pick’em and the Lions have taken most of the money since. That’s usually a sign to stay away and we’re going to do just that. It’s not easy to pull the trigger on the Argos. Despite beating the Roughriders in its last game, the Argos were clearly the second best team on the field and they’re not taking a step down in class. Every call and every bouncing ball went in the Argos favor and they nearly blew an 17-point lead going to the fourth quarter. In this offensive-minded league, the Argos are dead last in time of possession. For the Lions, it’s déjà vu all over again, as last year they started horribly and came on big time in the second half. They are the superior team here despite the identical 2-6 records. B.C. is coming off a 36-1 blowout in Edmonton against the depleted Eskies but we wouldn’t put too much emphasis on that. Edmonton was and still is reeling. The Lions only other win came against Saskatchewan and two wins against the league’s two worst teams right now is not that encouraging. Still, we know the Lions are the better team on paper but we’re going to have to see just a little bit more from tem before endorsing them as road chalk. Put a gun to our heads and we’d lay the points with some reserve. Play: B.C. Lions (No bets).