Doug Upstone
Baylor
We got lucky on yesterday's free play winner with Syracuse and let's see if this continues on Friday. Play On underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like Baylor in the first month of the season, after closing out last year with two or more straight losses, but still had a winning record last season. (28-6, 82.4% L10Y)
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -116
Motivated by a series loss to the Yankees, look for Boston to bounce back strong tonight. Having Andrew Miller on the hill is certainly bodes well for Bean Town. That's because the Sox have won each of his last 5 starts and 9 of his 10 starts on the season. He gave up no runs on 3 hits in 6 innings of work in a 6-0 win at Texas in his most recent outing. We'll bet Boston here.
MLB Predictions
Blue Jays / Yankees Over 9.5
The Blue Jays head to New York off of a solid series in Baltimore, where they scored 26 runs taking two of three. New York went into Boston and took two of their three games versus their AL East rival, moving them just a half game back in the division. The Blue Jays have Brandon Morrow on the mound, who has struggled as of late. In his last two outings Morrow has given up 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings against the Rays, and 6 earned runs (11 hits) in 4.2 innings against the Royals. He is 9-9 on the season with a 4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .241 opponents batting average. In his lone start against the Yankees this season Morrow picked up the win at home, but has yet to pitch at Yankee stadium this season. Although Morrow has pitched well on the road, taking a look back he hasn’t played many playoff calibre teams away from home. Pitching in Boston he went just 5 innings giving up 4 earned runs. The Yankees will counter with Ivan Nova, who is 14-4 on the year with a 3.96 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .265 opponents batting average. Note the Yankees have scored 92 runs in Nova’s last 11 starts, and are averaging 5.78 runs per game at home on the season. The Blue Jays have their bats going, and that can be good news for them in a hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. In addition to the home run power of Bautista and Lind, the Jays have picked up power hitter Kelly Johnson who is 9 for 17 with two homers in his last 4 games and rookie Brett Lawrie who has smashed four homers during his 9 game hitting streak. The OVER is 6-0 in the Jays last 6 overall, 6-0 in their last 6 vs AL East opponents, and 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The OVER is also 11-4 in Morrow’s last 15 starts as a road underdog, 15-5-1 in his last 21 starts with 4 days rest, and 4-1 in his last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. Note that the OVER is 4-1 in the Yankees last 5 during game 1 of a series, 4-0 in their last 4 home games, and 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs a right handed starter. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Nova’s last 7 home starts, 8-2-2 in his last 12 starts as a favorite, and 6-2 in his last 8 vs AL East opponents. In these two teams last 14 meetings in New York the OVER is 10-3-1. When two power hitting teams that are playing with confidence meet up in New York it is always good to take a look at the OVER. Tonight looks like another high scoring game between these two clubs in the Bronx. I’m on the OVER.
Steve Janus
Washington Nationals -112
The Nationals are showing some great value as small home favorite on Friday. Washington is returns home from a six game road trip where they went just 1-5. The Nationals are a strong 37-28 at home this season.
The pitching matchup looks to really favor Washington in this one. Ross Detwiler will start for the Nationals. He is just 2-4 on the year, but he is 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA at home. He is also 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his only start against the Mets. The Mets will counter with R.A. Dickey, who has not done well against the Nationals, going 1-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.565 WHIP in seven career starts.
Washington is 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series, 4-1 in Detwilers last 5 starts as a home favorite, and 14-6 in their last 20 Friday games.BET THE NATIONALS!
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox -116
I'm siding with the Boston Red Sox tonight showing solid value at home against the Texas Rangers. Rarely will you get the Red Sox as a small home favorite, but that's the opportunity odds makers have set before us Friday and I'll gladly take advantage.
Andrew Miller has been an excellent addition for Boston this season. He is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in his last three starts. Miller has made 10 starts for the Red Sox in 2011, and Boston has gone 9-1 in those 10 contests. He faced the Rangers on 8/25/2011, pitching 6 1/3 shutout innings while allowing only five base runners in a 6-0 Boston victory.
Derek Holland sports a 4.30 ERA and 1.433 WHIP in 27 starts this season. Holland is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in two career starts against Boston.
The Red Sox are hitting .297 and scoring 5.5 RPG at home this year, while Texas is batting .261 and scoring 4.2 RPG on the road.
The Rangers are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Texas is 2-12 in Holland's last 14 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox are 16-5 in their last 21 games following a loss. Boston is 54-26 in their last 80 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Red Sox are 38-15 in their last 53 home meetings with Texas. Bet the Red Sox Friday.
Bryan Power.
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
Despite the high price, I feel that "laying the juice" with Justin Verlander is still worth a play. Since the start of last season, Verlander has been a favorite of -150 or higher on the money line 29 different times. Detroit is 26-3 in those games. The team has also won 36 of his last 46 home starts. They are 22-4 with him on the mound vs. division opponents. They are 8-0 his last eight starts overall with him picking up the win every time. He has a 2.61 ERA over this span and leads MLB w/ 218 K's for the season. He is also the first pitcher in a decade to win 20 games before September. The Tigers have also posted some good number against lefties, going 26-18, so I see them putting an end to John Danks recent hot streak. 5* on Detroit.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Milwaukee -1.5 (-130) over HOUSTON: This will be a determined and focused Milwaukee team that will be taking the field tonight as they are off being swept at home vs the Cardinals, allowing St Louis to suddenly close the gap to 7.5 GB. Milwaukee is 9-3 vs the Astros this year and they are 9-0 vs the RL in those wins, while in their last 12 wins vs Houston (dating to last year) they are 12-0 vs the RL. Milwaukee has Zack Greinke on the mound tonight and he is 3-5 with a 5.56 ERA on the road, but in his last 4 on the road he is 2-2 with a solid 3.41 ERA. He does come in pitching very well with a 6-1 mark and a 2.61 ERA in his last 7 starts overall, while he is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Astros. Lucas Harrel gets his first start of the year for Houston, while in 3 career starts (all last year) he is 1-0 but with a high 6.28 ERA. Milwaukee has struggled on the road this year, but Houston is 26-42 at home and you have to believe that Milwaukee really wants this one and should get it vs a team they have played very well against this year.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Cleveland/ Kansas City Under 8: Solid pitching matchup tonight in Kansas City and that should translate into a low scoring affair. Let's look at the offenses first. The Cleveland offense is struggling right now as they come in averaging just 2.6 rpg in their last 5 games, while hitting just .200 over that span and on the year this team has scored just 4.1 rpg vs left-handed pitching on the year. The Royals offense has been hot of late and they have scored 4.4 rpg overall, but they have scored just 3.8 rpg vs Cleveland pitching this year and just 3.3 rpp vs them in games that Masterson has started. Speaking of just, he comes in with a n ERA of 2.83 on the year and an ERA of 2.62 on the road, plus he has a 2.44 ERA at night. His road starts have been low scoring as just 6 rpg have been scored, with the Under going 8-4, while his starts at night have put up just 7.22 rpg. Bruce Chen has a 3.63 ERA at home and he comes in with a 2.33 ERA in his last 4 starts, so he is pitching well at the moment. Justin has a 2.63 ERA in his last 8 starts vs the Royals, while Chen has a 1.67 ERA in his last 4 starts vs the Tribe. I say go low here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Under is 20-5 since April of 2009, when Cleveland is a favorite or not a dog of 100+ after a 5+ run loss.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Toronto/ NY Yanks over 9.5: The Yanks are coming off a 7 game road trip in which they averaged just 4.29 rpg, so you know this team is glad to be home where thy have scored 5.78 rpg overall on the year, including an average of 8.1 rpg in their last 11 there. Barndon Morrow has pitched well on the road this year with a 2.83 ERA, but he comes in with a 7.58 ERA in 4 career starts in NY and all 4 of those starts have put up double digit runs. Ivan Nova has done a very nice job for the Yanks this year, but he does have a 4.62 ERA at home with an average of 11.91 rpg being scored, plus he has a 4.09 ERA in 2 career starts at home vs the Jays. We all know that the Yanks can score, but so can the Jays are they are 4th in the league at 4.73 rpg and they come in hot hitting .316 and scoring 6.6 rpg in their last 5 games. Let's also note the run support as the Jays score 5.1 rpg for Brandon on the road, while the Yanks have put up 7.55 rpg for Nova at home. The Over is 8-2-2 in Nova's last 12 starts as a favorite, while the Over is 15-5-1 in Morrow's last 21 starts on 4 days rest. 10 runs plus easily in this one.
Oakland/ Seattle Over 7.5: The over is 26-9-4 in Oakland's last 39 games on grass and 16-3 -2 in their last 21 games following a win, while the Over is 9-4 in Jason Vargas' last 13 starts on 4 days rest. Guillermo Moscoso comes in with a 5.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and 7 of his last 8 starts has produced more than 10 runs. Jason Vargas has a high 9.18 ERA in his last 3 starts and he has a 4.80 ERA in 5 career starts vs the A's. The Seattle offense has been good of late as they have averaged 4.7 rpg in their last 10 games, while the pitching has not been their as they have allowed 5.3 rpg over that stretch. The A's offense comes in averaging 5.2 rpg in their last 10, while their pitching has not been that great as they have allowed 6.1 rpg over that stretch. Let's also note that the Over is 16-1 since July of 2009 when the A's are a favorite and off an afternoon game if they lost their last 2 games that today's starter has started. Another low OU for an Oakland game and that has me playing on the over once again.
NY Mets/ Washington Under 8: Ross Detwiler has 3 home starts on the year and an average of 4.33 rpg have been scored, with him having an ERA of 1.54. R.A. Dickey has pitched well of late with a 2.93 ERA in his last 7 starts, with just 6.86 rpg being scored in those starts. Ross has faced the Met's once and allowed 1 ER in 6 innings of work, while R.A. Has faced the Nats 6 times as a member of the Mets and he has a 2.95 ERA in those starts, with an average of 7.3 rpg being scored. The two on the mound tonight have pitched very well of late and will be going up against some struggling offenses as the Nats come in averaging just 2.9 rpg in their last 10 games, while the Mets have averaged just 3.6 rpg in their last 10 games. The Under is 5-1 in the Mets last 6 games vs the NL East, while the Under is 6-0-1 in Detwiler's last 7 starts on grass. I just don't expect more than 6 runs in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Milwaukee/ Houston Over 8: As I stated in my writeup above that the Brewers should be a focused team in this one and that will start with an offense that has put up just 3.4 rpg in their last 5 games. Poor. Lucas Harrell in this one, who has a 6.28 ERA in 3 career starts. I also stated above that Greinke has a 5.56 ERA on the road this year, so he is prone to giving up some runs in this one. The Under is 9-4 the last 13 vs these team is Houston, but the last 3 earlier this month all went over, with Milwaukee scoring 7+ runs in all three. I see more of the same tonight and I look for a Brewers win in the neighborhood of 7-3.
ST LOUIS -154 over Cincinnati: One could look at this game and say that with St Louis off a 3 game sweep of the Brewers in Milwaukee that they are primed for a let down. I say not. The Cards are in a fight for the AL Central, so there is no time for let down. Pujols is hot right now and he is a career .344 hitter in September. The Cards need to keep the momentum going and having Chris Carpenter on the mound, who is 14-4 with a 2.23 ERA in his career vs the Reds will help.
1 UNIT PLAY
LA Angels/ Minnesota Over 8.5: The over is 18-6-2 the last 26 in the series and 16-5 in the angels last 21 games with a total at 7 to 8.5: Tyler Chatwood is no Weaver and the Minnesota offense should be able to tag him for a few. He has a 4.75 ERA at home and a 5.97 ERA at night. Carl Pavano has been awful on the road with a 5.63 ERA this year, while in his last 5 starts vs the Halos he has an ERA of 5.13, with an average of 12 rpg being scored. LA's offense comes in averaging 6.1 rpg in their last 7 games, so expect at least 5 runs off him tonight. I expect at least 10 in this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
Baylor/ TCU Under 53: Been over this game back to front and all around and the only thing I could settle on was Under. Yes I know that just 9 defensive starters combined are back for these teams, but I still see a lower scoring game here than you might think. TCU only brings back 5 starters on defense but this is a team that just reloads on that side of the ball as evidenced by 2009 when they brought back 4 starters from a team that allowed 11.3 pgg in 2008 and they went on to allow 12.8 ppg that year. Gary Patterson knows defense and he will have them ready for this one. Baylor does have 9 starters back on offense and they bring 85% of their yards back, with with this same offense they did only score 10 and put up just 263 yards vs TCU last year. (Both were season lows). As I stated above, Patterson will have to have his defense ready for this one as they offense will take a bit to catch. The Frogs bring back just 3 starters and 45% of their yardage and they will it will take time for that group to gel, even vs a Baylor defense that struggled last year and brings back just 5 on that start of the ball. Even with the losses this is still an improved defense. With TCU allowing just 14.8 ppg in their last 5 games vs BCS schools and their offense taking I while to gel ,I will go with the Under in this one. KEY TREND--- The Under is 1-6 in Baylor's last 7 non-conference games.
Black Widow
1* on Philadelphia Phillies -154
The Philadelphia Phillies are rolling right now, winners of four straight while outscoring oppnents 21-6 in the process. We look for Roy Oswalt to make it five straight tonight by shutting down the struggling Florida Marlins. The Marlins are just 5-21 in their last 26 games overall and appear to have packed it in. Oswalt sports a 3.77 ERA in 18 starts this season, including a 3.29 ERA over his last three. Brad Hand is 1-4 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in eight starts this year for Florida, and 0-1 with a 6.58 ERA and 2.121 WHIP in his last three. Philly is 72-26 (+35.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 46-15 in their last 61 games as a favorite. The Marlins are 7-27 in their last 34 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Florida is 15-43 in their last 58 games as a home underdog. Take the Phillies on the Money Line.
Jack Clayton
TCU at Baylor
Pick: Baylor
The good news for Baylor in 2011 is that junior QB Robert Griffin III (22 TDs, 8 INTs, 3,501 yards) returns. He is a dynamic player and was second on the team in rushing with 635 yards, 4.3 yards per carry. Throw in senior RB Terrance Ganaway (295 yards, 6.4 yards per carry) and senior WR Kendall Wright (952 yards) and this offense is loaded. 8 starters return on offense on a group that averaged 31.2 points, 280.7 yards passing, 194.6 rushing per game. The defense has a new defensive coordinator in Phil Bennett and home field and a significant QB edge here. Play Baylor!
Hollywood Sports
Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Texas focuses on winning each and every series they take part in -- and this zeal has helped them take care of business in opening games of a new series as they have won 21 of their last 26 series openers. And when Derek Holland is on the hill in these situations, the Rangers have won 6 straight games. The left-hander has been a solid proposition when on the road this year where he sports a 3.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .257 opponent's batting average as compared to his more meager 4.96 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and .300 opponent's batting average when at home. Texas has won 7 of their last 10 road games when Holland was facing a team with a winning record. While Boston's 41-27 record at home in Fenway Park may look daunting, the Rangers have won 5 straight road games against teams with a home winning percentage over 60%. The Rangers are 34-32 on the road overall -- and the Red Sox have lost 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Considering that Boston sends out Andrew Miller who is saddled with a 6.88 ERA, 2.18 WHIP and .360 opponent's batting average at home (the Green Monster can be very unkind to young left-handed pitchers), the Rangers offer very nice value as a small underdog in this spot. Take Texas with the money line while listing both starting pitchers Derek Holland and Andrew Miller.