Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday September, 21

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta vs. Philadelphia
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This is an important series in Philadelphia as the Phillies host the Braves. Kyle Kendrick faces Atlanta for the third time this season. He was shelled back in August giving up 6 runs and seven hits in just over three innings. Overall, Kendrick is 7-10 with a 3.95 ERA in 22 starts for the Phillies. He lost to the Astros his last time out after giving up 4 runs and seven hits in five innings. Atlanta is hitting .253 against right-handed starters and they are putting up 5 runs per game in division contests. The Phillies’ bullpen is 14-11 with a 3.59 ERA at home converting only 18 of 27 save chances there.
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Tommy Hanson is 12-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 28 starts this season. He has allowed 8 runs and 14 hits in his last three starts as he continues to try and regain his consistency that he had before the back injury. Hanson has had two rough outings against Philadelphia this season; he has allowed 7 seven runs and 14 hits in those games combined. The Phillies offense woke up in New York and they are hitting .258 at home. They are a healthy unit and they still have an outside chance at a Wild Card. These two pitchers should give up some runs, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Braves and Phillies on Friday night.

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee vs. Washington
Pick: Milwaukee
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The Brewers' (77-72) Shaun Marcum (5-4, 3.91 ERA) is set to square off against the Nationals' (91-58) Edwin Jackson (9-10, 3.89 ERA) on the mound this evening.
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Marcum gave up four runs off seven hits over four frames in his team's eventual 9-6 win over the Mets last Saturday. Marcum has had an up and down year, but has been decent on the road for the most part, going 2-3 with a very respectable 3.44 ERA while posting 57 K's in 11 starts.
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Jackson earned a no-decision in his last start vs. the Braves on Saturday, giving up four runs off four hits over 5 1/3's frames of work in his team's 5-4 setback; he struck out seven and walked one. Jackson is just 1-1 with a 7.47 ERA over his last three starts. He's 5-6 with a 3.72 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.
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The Nationals beat Los Angels 4-1 on Thursday to clinch their first playoff berth since the Expos did it back in 1981; suffice it to say, I believe this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the home side.
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The Brewers are surging towards the post-season themselves, having won five straight overall and 23 of their last 29, sitting just 2.5 games back of the Cards for the final NL wild-card spot.
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You'll want to keep your eyes on the Brewers' Rickie Weeks, who is hitting .333 with seven home runs and 16 RBIs over his last 20 games; he's 6 for 14 with three doubles and a home runs vs. Washington.
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This is a great situational play, that pays back "plus-money"; consider a second look at the underdog Brewers in this one!

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pirates vs. Astros
Play: Over 8½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a totals system that Has been solid the last 9 years. We want to play he over for home dogs like the Astros that are off a 1 run road dog loss and scored 4 or less runs with 10+ hits and 10+ men left on base, vs an opponent like the Pirates off a loss. Pitching for the Pirates is Locke and he has a high 7.05 era. Gonzalez for the Astros allowed 5 runs in 4 innings in his only start. The Astros have gone over in 3 of the last 4 home games. The Pirates have flown over all 7 times as a road favorite from -100 to -125 this season. Take this one over the total tonight. On Friday the start the weekend Big with the MLB 6* Total of the Month from a 19-1 system with a 100% subset that averages 14 runs per game and is similar to last nights total winner with the over in the Phillies game. MLB 5* Blowout system plays 4-0 this week.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Baltimore Orioles
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Boston is long out of the pennant race and starter Jon Lester (9-12, 4.95 ERA) is back to walking too many batters with 10 free passes in his last 18 innings (3 starts). The Red Sox are 18-38 in their last 56 home games vs. a right-handed starter and face Miguel Gonzalez (3.57 ERA), who has a 3.26 ERA his last three starts fanning 17 in 19 innings with only 6 walks. The Orioles are 20-8 in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record and 17-5 in their last 22 games following an off day. The Red Sox are 7-19 in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record and the Orioles are 12-5 in the last 17 meetings. Play the Orioles.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Nationals continue to roll, and they didn't pop the champagne corks despite clinching a playoff berth yesterday. But Milwaukee just isn't losing at all right now, and at this much plus money, I see the sizzling Brewers being worth a play.

SPORTS WAGERS

UL MONROE +7 +102 over Baylor

Another solid college football opportunity presents itself here, as we find a well-known Big 12 team a significant road favorite over a much less popular Sun Belt conference team.

Also consider that the Baylor Bears have now won eight straight dating back to last year so its stock is extremely high. What’s more significant however, is that Baylor has played two cupcakes in SMU and Sam Houston State while UL Monroe has played then #8 Arkansas and Auburn. The win over Arkansas was the programs' first ever win over a ranked opponent and yet they still battled to a 31-28 OT loss in a letdown spot the next week at Auburn.

The Warhawks are much more battle tested. They have an outstanding QB in Kolton Browning. Against two quality clubs, Browning has delivered by completing 62% of his passes for 649 yards. He’ll now take a step down in class when facing a Bears defense that gets gashed often. This is a big-time game for the Warhawks. It’s not so big time for the Bears, as they have games on deck against three ranked opponents in West Virginia, TCU and Texas. Overlooking this game and focusing on the upcoming set of three is a distinct possibility. So is an upset in this one. Take the points.

Los Angeles +120 over CINCINNATI

There’s really a big sense of relief when a baseball team clinches a playoff spot after a long summer. This season has been especially difficult due to the extreme heat all summer, making that clinching game even more satisfying. The Reds clinched yesterday in Chicago, turning this one into a serious letdown spot after nearly 150 meaningful games.

Bronson Arroyo’s under the hood numbers have dropped for three straight years. He's pretty much pitching to contact these days. His control this year has been better than usual but his 4.48 xERA, 41%/38% groundball/fly-ball profile and 118 K’s in 183 innings reveal that he’s the same ordinary pitcher that he’s always been.

Joe Blanton's constantly low strand % has yet to waver in Los Angeles (61% in August, 63% in September). Basically, the man's cursed but his skills are really good with just 33 walks and 154 K’s in 179 innings. Facing a team coming off a celebratory win is a good opportunity for Blanton and the Dodgers to narrow the three game gap in the pursuit of their own playoff clinching game.

Sean HiggsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland Athletics vs. New York Yankees
Play: Oakland AthleticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I will fade CC and the Yanks here. This team hasn't played well in over a month. Yes they just beat up on the Blue Jays. But in typical Toronto fashion, they have mailed it in this month. CC does not have great numbers vs the A's (8-8 4.80 182+ innings). He is notorious for giving up 4 in a given inning but still goes 8. Parker has been solid all season, and sharp his last 3 (2.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). In his only start vs NYY he went 8 and struck out 5.

Frank JordanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baylor vs. UL Monroe
Play: BaylorFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baylor comes into the game 2-0 and they did give up 24 and 23 points in their first two games, but they also scored 59 and 48 points. UL Monroe has played a couple of tough SEC games and both of which went into overtime they won at home over Arkansas who was then number 8 by three points but lost at Auburn by three points. This is Baylor's first true test of the season as they hit the road against a battle tested team. UL Monroe has a two headed rushing attack and a quarterback who has 6 TD passes to just one interception. Baylor is the same way with a QB with just two interceptions to seven TD passes and a pair of lethal running backs both averaging over 5.5 yards a carry as well as three different weapons as receivers. Look for the edge at receiver to be the difference that gives Baylor the win on the road. Play Baylor

Tony StoffoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Milwaukee BrewersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Free Play - Milwaukee at Washington I'm going with a streaking Brewers squad here that have now won 5 straight and will be facing a Nationals team that just clinched the NL East last night. The motivational factor just can't be their for the Washington players after celebrating their great season last night. Milwaukee the very live underdog in this spot here. Brewers are 15-2 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record. Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Nationals are 0-5 in Jacksons last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles +120
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Jon Lester has dominated Baltimore throughout his career, but that won't keep me off the Orioles here. Besides, the Red Sox have lost each of his last 3 starts against them.
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It's been a disappointing season all around for Lester. The Red Sox are 3-8 in his last 11 home starts, 1-5 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite and 3-13 in his last 16 home starts versus a team with a winning record.
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The O's enter this contest having won 4 in a row, and they have defeated Boston 12 times in the past 17 meetings. They have also won 7 of their last 8 at Fenway. They are 7-2 in their last 9 in the underdog role, and they have won 6 of Miguel Gonzalez's last 8 starts. Bet Baltimore.

Andrew Lange

Milwaukee at Washington
Play: Washington

We’re in the midst of the MLB playoff push and unlike a majority of the season, you can have success betting on or against teams while pretty much ignoring the starting pitching matchup. Now that Milwaukee has jumped back in the postseason race, bettors are very eager to bet this squad. I don't blame them. If not for their bullpen, Milwaukee could have won 90+ games. But while it looks dangerous to step in front of this team, they won't have many edges in tonight's matchup. The Brewers tried to unload Shaun Marcum during the summer but there weren't any takers. He's had arm issues this season and since his return I've played over and/or against in each of his four starts (7.23 ERA, .997 OPS). Edwin Jackson doesn't get much fanfare but he takes the ball every fifth day and gives the Nationals a chance to win. He's a good fit vs. Milwaukee (.217 vs. righties). I respect Milwaukee's run, but we're getting the better starting pitcher, better bullpen and better overall team at less than -125 at home which to me is worth a play.

DAVID BANKS

Baylor / UL-Monroe Over 69.5

The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (1-1, 2-0 ATS) have made quite an impression this early season by very nearly upsetting two SEC schools, and now the whole nation can watch this Cinderella team as it hosts the Baylor Beats (2-0, 1-1 ATS) on Friday night. You can catch all the action from Malone Stadium in Monroe, LA at 8:00 ET on ESPN.

UL Monroe opened up its season by shocking Arkansas 34-31 on the road in overtime as a 30-point underdog, and the Warhawks almost duplicated that feat again last week by taking Auburn to overtime on the road, only this time they came up just short by a 31-28 count as 14-point underdogs, This is now their home opener, and the buzz that the Warhawks have created combined with the ESPN camera rolling should create an atmosphere unlike anything that Monroe has seen before. The Warhawks' performances have not been flukes when looking at the yardage totals either, as they outgained Arkansas by 173 total yards in the opener and they were just negligibly outgained by eight yards by Auburn while compiling 410 total yards last Saturday. Monroe ranks 28th in the county in total offense right now, which is virtually unheard of for a Sun Belt Conference team this early in the year, as this is a conference that has become accustomed to getting crushed by power conference schools early on before conference play commences. Now the Warhawks get a chance to show off that offense vs. a Big 12 defense, and a fairly shoddy one at that as Baylor ranks 101st nationally in total defense.

However, the Baylor offense ranks eighth producing 578.5 total yards per game, so this is a program that reloaded well after losing quarterback Robert Griffin III and wide receiver Kendall Wright to the NFL. The Bears opened the season with a 59-24 rout of SMU before toying with a Samford team out of the FCS 48-23 last week. Griffin's replacement at quarterback Nick Florence has performed admirably, passing for 653 yards in two games with seven touchdown passes already against just two interceptions while averaging a very nice 9.2 yards per pass attempt. Also, like Griffin, Florence is a dual threat as he has average a whopping 8.7 yards per carry while rushing for 104 yards. The Bears also have nice balance offensively this year, as they rank 26th in the country in rushing along with ninth in passing., Thus, although UL Monroe has played splendidly in two games vs. teams from the best conference in the nation, stopping this Baylor offense presents it biggest challenge to date.

This is the first ever meeting between these schools and the first time that Baylor has faced a Sun Belt school since it beat North Texas way back in 2004. The Bears are 9-2 straight up and 6-2 ATS in all non-conference games since 2010. UL Monroe is 0-9 straight up all time vs. Big 12 schools, going 4-5 ATS in those contests.

Wunderdog

Game: Baltimore at Boston
Pick: Baltimore +115

Everyone keeps waiting for the Orioles to collapse. But at this stage of the season, that is obviously not going to happen. They play the Red Sox, who everyone kept waiting to turn things around. Yhey jumped ship at the trade deadline, and this team right now is in a lot of trouble with both coaching, and personnel. The Red Sox are 18-38 in their last 56 against right-handed pitching, and just 2-11 after allowing 5+ runs in their previous game. They again allowed a win to go by the boards, allowing 6 runs in the final frame at Tampa. The O's are now 20-8 in their last 28 vs. a losing team, and 17-5 when following an off day. They are far too good to be a dog here. Play on Baltimore.

MLB Predictions

Kansas City Royals -130

Cleveland is coming off a win that helped them avoid a sweep at home against Minnesota yesterday. The series loss was their 4th straight, as they've gone just 3-9 over their last 12 games. Kansas City won the final two games of their series against the Chicago White Sox and moved to 6-4 over their last 10 games. Tonight on the rubber for Cleveland is Justin Masterson who is 11-14 with a 4.93 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .267 opponents batting average on the season. On the road Masterson is just 5-8 with a high 6.36 ERA and .294 opponents batting average. He has been struggling lately with a 5.19 ERA over 3 September starts and a 6.75 ERA over his 6 August starts. Luis Mendoza will be starting for Kansas City and he is 7-9 on the season with a 4.50 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 2.78 opponents batting average. He has a bit higher 4.94 ERA at home, but opponents are hitting .268 against him at home compared to .287 on the road. Mendoza has a 4.41 ERA over his last three starts and has been fairly consistent over the year. Take note that the Indians are just 12-39 in their last 51 games overall, 14-38 in their last 52 road games, and 7-20 in their last 27 vs divisional opponents. The Royals are 19-7 in their last 26 vs divisional opponents, 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs a team with a winning % on the road of less than .400, and 5-2 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Also take note that the Indians are just 3-13 in Masterson's last 16 road starts as an underdog of +110 to +150, and 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs a team with a losing record. The Royals are 5-2 in Mendoza's last 7 starts overall, and a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 home starts. Kansas City is 5-0 in these two teams last 5 meetings and 7-1 in their last 8 this season. I like the Royals who are playing better baseball right now and have an advantage on the mound.