Nelly
Minnesota Twins + over Detroit Tigers
The Twins have to like what they are getting from Samuel Deduno, in his third team in as many years. In 13 starts he owns a 3.84 ERA and he produced a quality start in seven of his last 10 outings. Deduno has already made a successful start against the Tigers this season and Detroit just can't be counted on despite its must-win status, trailing Chicago by two games in the standings. Detroit has lost three of the last five games and the Tigers are not getting great numbers from Rick Porcello. Detroit has lost seven games in a row that Porcello has started and he has not had a quality start in seven of his last 10 outings. At home Porcello owns a 4.52 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP. The road team has won seven of the last 10 games in this series and Minnesota has the look of a spoiler team. Detroit gets a heavy dose of the Twins and Royals in the final two weeks
as they should be favored to overtake the White Sox but they have had opportunities all season and have not gotten it done. Detroit has not proven worthy of this type of favoritism and Deduno is more than capable of out-pitching Porcello.
Harry Bondi
UL-Monroe +7.5
If you think UL-Monroe is going to be intimidated by the Baylor Bears coming to town, guess again. The Warhawks have been an honorary member of the SEC so far this season and have fared quite well, going on the road to upset Arkansas and then taking Auburn to overtime, once again on the road, before losing a 31-28 decision. QB Kolton Browning has been exceptional with just one interception in 113 attempts, while putting up 649 passing yards and six touchdowns. Meanwhile, Baylor seems to still be trying to get over its RG III hangover. The Bears were trailing Sam Houston State in the 3rd quarter last week, before pulling away, mostly because of 4 Sam Houston State turnovers. ESPN doesn't make too many trips to UL-Monroe, so look for the crowd to treat this like a national championship game. This one comes down to the final minutes. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +169 over DETROIT
Some pitchers just can’t win no matter what they do and then they start pressing. Rick Porcello has not been receiving run support recently. Despite allowing three earned runs or less in each of his last six starts, he is 0-5 over that span. He’s also struggled against the Twins with current Minnesota players hitting .341 against Porcello in 173 career AB’s. That’s not a small sample size either. They know this guy and they know him well.
Sam Deduno is a risk because he tends to lose sight of the strike zone. However, he has some of the nastiest stuff in the majors and when he’s on, he’s near impossible to hit. That occasional lack of control, combined with great stuff is also intimidating. Deduno is still 6-4 with a very respectable 3.84 ERA and just as respectable 3.72 xERA since the break.
The Twins continue to play hard. They truly enjoy the spoiler role and they figure to provide the Tigers with a challenge in this opener.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -124
Getting the Texas Rangers at this price against the lowly Seattle Mariners is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Texas (89-60) is four games clear of Oakland for the AL West title, and it's only a few games away from clinching a playoff spot.
Seattle (70-80) has nothing to play for the rest of the way. It has lost four straight and nine of 12 overall. The Mariners have only plated a total of eight runs during their 4-game losing streak.
The Mariners couldn't get much going last weekend against Martin Perez (1-1, 3.38 ERA), who is set to make his first start since being called up from Triple-A Round Rock at the beginning of September.
Perez is taking the spot in the rotation of Scott Feldman, who has a 6.99 ERA in his last seven starts. After Feldman was tagged for six runs in 2 2/3 innings against Seattle on Saturday, the rookie left-hander came in and threw 4 1/3 hitless innings of relief.
Hisashi Iwakuma has faced Texas twice this year, going 0-2 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.742 WHIP in those two outings. He has given up six earned runs, three homers and 18 base runners over 10 1/3 innings against the Rangers in 2012.
The Rangers are 55-25 in their last 80 during game 1 of a series. Texas is 7-0 in its last 7 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Mariners are 20-46 in their last 66 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Seattle is 3-13 in its last 16 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Rangers Friday.
Scott Delaney
You still loving this undefeated free-pick run? Now at 11-0 after scoring with the New York Yankees on the Run Line, tonight it's a complimentary winner on the Cincinnati Reds, hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers. I know it's a bit of a steep price, but you can handle it, heck, I've won 11 straight complimentary plays for you spanning the past couple weeks.
Though the Reds became the first team to secure a playoff spot, their ventrue is far from over. There's still the little matter of a National League Central division title, which seems to be inevitable, given their 11-game lead over the defending World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals.
So with still plenty to play for, I don't expect the Reds to let up any time soon, especially against another playoff-contending team, like the Los Angeles Dodgers. There's no telling if these two will meet in the playoffs, and there's no way a manager like Dusty Baker is going to let his team let a potential opponent get the mental edge.
I know Los Angeles is hungry and looking for wins itself, but it has lost 10 of 14 and is struggling, sitting three back of the Cardinals for the senior circuit's second wild card.
Veteran righty Bronson Arroyo gets a struggling Dodgers offense that has plated a mere seven runs in the team's last seven losses.
Now here's the deal, the division crown could be wrapped up as early as tonight, if the Cardinals lose to the Cubs in the afternoon and the Reds win this game. So I'm releasing this as a 2♦ play up front. But if the Cardinals lose their matinee at Wrigley, double the rating on this comp play to a 4♦.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Chuck O'Brien
My free winner for tonight is on the lowly Houston Astros, plus the low price, at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Seem strange to take the worst team in baseball? Not to me. I love the Astros tonight, and if I didn't have a 60-Dime move on another Division Rivalry Blowout, this would be my paid play.
I'm not going to lie, I was excited for the Bucs. And not because they were playoffs-bound, but more so because they were finally going to enjoy their first winning season in 20 years. Think about that for a moment, 20 years. That's five presidential terms.
But, in true walk-the-plank fashion, the Pirates have jumped ship from their winning ways, and have dropped 28 of 39 since enjoying being 16 games over .500.
I won't list pitchers, I'm simply looking at this like it's the right momentum and right spot for Houston to kick the Bucs while their down. Nonetheless, I'd be remiss to mention how well Edgar Gonzalez has looked since joining the team from the Mexican League, with a 2-1 mark and 4.40 ERA. Lifetime against Pittsburgh, the right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA
My money is on the home underdog Astros.
2♦ HOUSTON
Craig Davis
Free play run stands at 75-60.
Tonight's free play is on the Atlanta Braves over Philadelphia in what's become quite a little rivalry over the past few years.
The Braves have a good chance to clinch a playoff berth this weekend while the Phillies are just hoping to keep their name in the ""on life support" list after this weekend.
With 12 games remaining in the regular season schedule, Atlanta (86-64) has a six-game lead atop the Wild Card standings. Philly (76-74), coming off a three-game sweep of the New York Mets, still needs to win just about every game and get some help from some other teams. The Phils remain four games behind St. Louis for the second Wild Card spot.
The Braves give the ball to Tommy Hanson (12-8, 4.33 ERA) tonight in hopes of seeing him end a six-game winless streak. Ironically, despite his sloppy outings, the Braves have still found a way to win eight of Hanson's last 11 starts.
Kyle Kendrick (9-11, 3.95) counters for the Phillies, and although his overall numbers look decent, he's coming off his worst start in over a month. Kendrick allowed four runs on seven hits in just five innings of a 5-0 shutout loss at lowly Houston Saturday.
The Phillies are pressing while the Braves will continue to play loose. Take Atlanta as your free play of the day.
3♦ ATLANTA
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Athletics and the Yankees to sail Over the total in the Bronx tonight.
Both teams involved in rather high-scoring affairs yesterday, as Oakland combined with Detroit for 16 runs, while New York combined with Toronto for 17 runs.
The A's have now been Over the total in each of their last four games, and catch Yankees pitcher CC Sabathia in a bit of a slide. Sabathia has allowed 12 runs his last 20 innings pitched. Perhaps the portly southpaw's pitching arm is not quite at 100%?
The Over is on a 6-1-2 roll the last 9 times Sabathia has gone to the hill.
Jarrod Parker will counter for the Athletics. Parker has been stingy over his last 3 starts, sporting just a 2.14 ERA in that span, but on the road this season Parker has had his struggles as evidenced by his 4.95 ERA away from home this season.
6 of the last 10 series meetings between the teams have eclipsed the posted price, and with both teams bats doing some heavy clubbing yesterday, I will look for Parker and Sabathia to get dinged just enough to take this weekend opener Over the total.
A's-Yanks Over on Friday night.
4♦ OAKLAND-N.Y. YANKEES OVER
Chris Jordan.
My free pick for Friday night is on the Philadelphia Phillies, in their National League East showdown against the Atlanta Braves, as the perennial senior-circuit favorite continues its improbable run toward a playoff berth.
Thing is, I'm more comfortable with how the Phillies look for this series against a Atlanta team that has the chance to clinch a playoff berth this weekend, rather than them facing a scrub team in a series that would look too good to be true.
This is more of a series in which we're going to see the Phillies at their best. They have no choice, if they'd like to stay in contention after these three games. Well, tonight the Phils couldn't ask for a better person on the hill to keep this run alive.
Right-handed starter Kyle Kendrick has gone 6-1 with a 2.87 ERA lifetime against the Braves, so confidence should not be lacking with this team tonight.
The Phillies roll into this one after sweeping the New York Mets, including last night's 16-1 pounding. And after seeing the Braves win eight of the first 10 meetings, the Phils have now won three of their last five showdowns.
Take Philly.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Matt Rivers
18-11 free play run coming into Friday night, and I am liking the underdog UL Monroe Warhawks this evening to continue their impressive play.
This will be the home opener for Monroe after opening on the road against a pair of SEC teams. In case you missed it, the Warhawks stunned a healthy Arkansas team in overtime on September 8th as the 30-point underdog, and they followed that win up with another near-upset, falling in overtime to Auburn as the 15-point pup.
Expect the home crowd to be in a rowdy mood tonight, as UL Monroe will play on the road the next two weeks following tonight's rare nationally televised affair.
Baylor is off to a 2-0 start, but RGIII is no longer running the show, and these Bears have failed the spread in each of their last five true road games.
The Bears have a huge game next week at West Virginia, and they may get caught looking ahead tonight. That would be a big mistake as Todd Berry's team has been able to cover three of their last four games when installed as the home underdog.
Warhawks the call tonight plus the points.
2♦ UL MONROE
ROCKETMAN
Cleveland @ Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -127
The Cleveland Indians travel to Kansas City to take on the Indians in Game One of this three game series. Cleveland is 5-19 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Cleveland is allowing 5.2 runs per game overall this year, 5.7 runs per game on the road this season and 5.8 runs per game against division opponents this year. Justin Masterson takes the mound for the Indians where he is 5-8 with a 6.36 ERA on the road this year and 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA his last 3 starts. Cleveland is 14-38 last 52 road games. Cleveland is 15-37 last 52 games against a right handed starter. Cleveland is 12-39 last 51 games overall. Cleveland is 5-21 last 26 games against a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 5-22 last 27 games on the road against a right handed starter. Cleveland is 3-13 last 16 games when Masterson starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Kansas City is 19-7 last 26 games against the AL Central division. Kansas City is 5-0 last 5 games when Mendoza starts at home. Kansas City has won 5 in a row against Cleveland. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City tonight!
OC Dooley
Dodgers +120
Just yesterday afternoon Cincinnati became the first team in baseball to officially clinch a playoff berth, which sets them up tonight for a potential emotional letdown. I am fully aware that the Reds still have unfinished business as their magic number for clinching the National League Central division pennant is down to the number-two. I am also aware that tonight’s starter Bronson Arroyo has been on a tear (5-1, 2.85 ERA) spanning his most recent seven mound assignments. But the fact of the matter is that the two ORIGINAL sluggers in the Dodgers lineup before the team’s infamous acquisitions in a $240 million salary dump by Boston have had success against the pitcher they are facing tonight. Both Matt Kemp (.409) and Andre Ethier (.300) have lofty career batting averages up against Arroyo and they will be operating out of the middle of the lineup. Newly acquired Dodger Adrian Gonzalez is just ONE shy of a career high (45) in doubles. Another newly acquired Dodger veteran Shane Victorino has already matched a career high with 37 stolen bases. In the stretch run for a possible playoff berth the Dodgers received good news at the beginning of the week as bullpen closer Kenley Jansen (irregular heartbeat) out since late August is now healthy enough to contribute. That makes Dodgers set-up man Ronald Belisario (0 earned runs allowed in 16 consecutive appearances) even more dangerous. Getting back to host Cincinnati the Reds were without manager Dusty Baker yesterday as he was hospitalized the night before with an irregular heartbeat