Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 23,2011

Jim Feist

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay is playing for its playoff life, but they only team they can beat the last week is Boston. This is a weak offensive team that just got smoked in the Bronx. Now that struggling offense faces Brandon Morrow, an excellent strikeout pitcher with 187 in 166 innings. He has a 2.59 ERA against the Rays with 54 Ks in 48 innings. The Blue Jays are 8-2 in Morrow's last 10 starts with 4 days of rest and 9-4 in his last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Play the Blue Jays!

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

UCF/ BYU Under 43.5: As many of you might have guessed itt I am more of an Under player in football than an over player and I know that there has been a lot of points scored this year in Both CFB and the NFL, but that will even out soon enough. Now as I stated in my CFB Tip Sheet games with an OU line of 50 or less have gone 11-27-2 to the Under. Pretty good numbers there. Last year UCF allowed just 17 ppg and 315 ypg on the year and this year they brought back just 4 starters on that side of the ball, so a drop off should have been expected. Not so fast my friends as this Knight's defense is as stout as ever. UCF comes in allowing just 166 ypg and just 7 ppg. Their defense has to be tough as the offense hasn't done very much vs their 2 FBS foes they faced this year, putting up just 20 points and 366 ypg vs them. Last week BYU allowed 54 points to Utah, but that was mostly due to the short field they gave Utah, thanks to 7 TO's. Yes they allowed 481 yards last week, but Utah did hit just 3 or 13 on third down and that will be key here as UCF is not a home run hitting team and will probably have many 3rd down attempts. Overall BYU has allowed 28 ppg, but just 326 ypg. The BYU offense has not been good this year as they can''t run the ball (48ypg) and Heaps has been inconsistent with just 3 TD's and 4 INT's. Both defenses also rank in the top 15 nationally in 3rd down defense and that will come in to play as both offenses should be facing plenty of third downs tonight. I expect a low scoring tight ballgame in Provo tonight. KEY TRENDS: The Under is 8-0 IN UCF's last 8 games in September and 9-1 in their last 10 non-conf games, while the Under is 9-1 in BYU's last 10 games during the first half of the season.

2 UNIT PLAY

UCF +2.5 over BYU: The Knights are off an embarrassing loss to FIU and they really need this one bad. Their defense has been stellar this year, allowing just 166 ypg and 7 ppg, plus they are ranked 1st in the nation in 3rd down defense allowing teams to convert just 20% of their 3rd down attempts. The BYU offense has been inconsistent and QB heaps has more INT's than TD's this year. The BYU defense has struggled vs the run allowing 157 ypg on the ground this year and that give UCCF a big edge as they are primarily a running team and they have put up 223 ypg and 5.0 ypc on the ground this year. UCF will use their ground game and stout defense to come up with a big road win here. KEY TRENDS--- UCF is 17-3 ATS the last 3 years when playing with 6 days or less rest and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games on grass fields.

Vegas Experts

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

The Red Sox have dominated the Yankees in head to head play this season, taking 11 of 15 meetings, including all six here at Yankees Stadium. For their sake, they need that domination to continue as their lead over the Rays has dipped to only two games in the Wild Card chase. They turn to Jon Lester this evening in hopes of turning things around and we like their chances considering Lester's 13-2 TSR on the division road coupled with New York's money burning ways in night games.

Play on: Boston

Matt Fargo

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals

The Nationals certainly have not packed it in this season as they are coming off a four-game sweep at Philadelphia and the goal right now is .500. Washington is three games under .500 and the Nationals know how big this series is. "It's going to be an important series this weekend against the Braves," manager Davey Johnson said. "Who’d have thought they’d be in a fight for their lives? They’re in for a dogfight. We’re going to make it as tough on them as we can." Jason Werth is calling it their World Series. The Braves are in a freefall. Their lead in the Wild Card race is two games over St. Louis with is almost unthinkable as the Cardinals were 10.5 games back on August 25th, but the Braves have lost 13 of their past 20 games. They send Tim Hudson to the hill and he has been part of the freefall. He is coming off a great outing last time out as he tossed eight shutout innings against the Mets which snapped a two-game non-quality start streak. This last game was at home and those two previous games were on the road where it has been a struggle. He has a 6.87 ERA over his last three road starts which has upped his road ERA to 4.56 compared to a 2.29 ERA at home. The Braves are 2-8 in his last 10 road starts against teams with a losing record. Stephen Strasburg gets the call for Washington and he is still in search of his first win of the season after three starts. He was on a rough 60-pitch count in those first three starts and his last outing was his best since returning to the Majors as he allowed one run on four hits in six innings against Florida. He is far from rusty as he has 11 strikeouts compared to no walks over 14 innings. Going back to last season, the Nationals are 4-0 in Strasburg's last four starts against teams with a winning record. 3* Washington Nationals

Rob Vinciletti

Reds vs. Pirates
Play: Over 9

This game fits a Solid system which has cashed 11 of the last 13 times and play to the over for road favorites off a home favored win, vs an opponent off a road dog loss and scored 5 or more runs with 5 or more men left on base. The games in this system average over 11 runs per game. The Reds have E. Volquez making the start and he has a 6.08 road era and 6.88 in his last 3 starts. In his lone start vs the Pirates he allowed 6 runs in 5+ Innings. Tonight he takes on J. Locke who has a 6.75 era in his limited starts this season. The Pirates have gone over the total a a high rate in the second half vs losing teams. Look for this game to fly over the total tonight.

BIG AL

Blue Jays @ Rays
PICK: Over 7.5 5

It took the Rays until the fourth game against the Yankees, but the team that is battling for a spot in the post-season finally exploded on Thursday night and scored 15 runs in the Bronx to pull closer to the Red Sox and keep its playoff hopes alive. It didn't hurt that the Yankees had clinched the A.L. East Pennant the night before and perhaps let down a little bit last night, but the 15 run outburst shows that Tampa isn't going to go away quietly. Tonight the Rays turn to their ace lefthander, David Price, who left his last start against the Red Sox after being struck by a line drive, but says he's ready to go. The Rays have to be feeling good about their chances as Price is 9-1 with a 1.99 ERA in his career against Toronto, and in his last start against this team on August 28, he struck out a team-record 14 batters, while Tampa backed him with almost as many runs (12) in a 12-0 shutout. Toronto righthander Brandon Morrow has struggled lately, with a 1-1 record and 6.62 ERA in his last three starts. The over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings of these two teams, and I look for another high-scoring affair here. Take the 'over.'

BANG THE BOOK

Central Florida at BYU
Pick: Central Florida

Friday night football picks in Provo are going to be tough to make, as a pair of teams that are trying to make a name for themselves duke it out at Lavell Edwards Stadium, as the BYU Cougars host the UCF Knights.

Though that sentiment really never came through the rest of the country, many in Orlando thought that this could be a BCS type of season for the Knights. They were highly touted as potentially even the second best team in the state behind the Florida State Seminoles, but those thoughts were quickly quelled last week with a loss to the Florida International Golden Panthers. FIU, a team out of the Sun Belt, might have drawn up the game plan for beating these Knights, as it stacked the box with eight players all night long and dared QB Jeff Godfrey to throw the football. Though Godfrey is certainly a superior talent in the state at the quarterback position, he isn’t quite finely tuned enough as a passer to make defenses pay for that type of look. That being said, this running game is phenomenal with RBs Latavius Murray, Brynn Harvey, and Ronnie Weaver, especially when you throw into the mix the fact that Godfrey has six rushing touchdowns on his own. The defense has been stout all year long, allowing just 20 total points in three games.

Heck, the Cougars allowed that in the fourth quarter alone against the Utah Utes last week! It was the home opener for BYU off of a tough loss against the Texas Longhorns, and all of the air was taken out of Lavell Edwards Stadium in the second half of the “Holy War.” It was a closely run contest at halftime, with the Utes leading 14-10, but from there on out, the newest members of the Pac-12 went on a 40-0 scoring run to blow the game out of the water. Neither side of the ball played particularly well in the second half, as the offense allowed a TD, and the defense was picked apart for three long scores. Five TDs for Utah came from at least 30 yards away from the end zone. That must stop this week if the Cougars have any chance of redemption in this, their first year of independence in college football. QB Jake Heaps is also a sophomore like Godfrey, and, much like Godfrey, he has a lot of talent. However, he has a lot of growing to do as well, and this isn’t the defense to be going through growing pains against.

UCF Knights @ BYU Cougars Pick: We just don’t know if BYU has the goods in this game to stick with UCF’s defense. As long as FIU doesn’t essentially beat the Knights twice, we like the guests in this one to come on the road and pull off the upset in one of the bigger wins on national television in school history.

Rocketman

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds still have a chance to finish .500 or better as they sit at 76-80 overall on the season. I think that is something the players want to see happen to take something positive from this season. Pittsburgh is 39-82 last 3 years when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Pittsburgh has lost 5 of their last 6 games overall and 10 of their last 13. Jeff Locke is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA overall this year. Volquez is 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA overall overall vs Pittsburgh. We'll recommend a small play on Cincinnati tonight!

Eric Williams

Oakland A's vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels may not catch the Texas Rangers in the American League West, but their wild card hopes are alive in a big way – which is why they’re a lock pick to beat the hell out of the Oakland A’s tonight!

Los Angeles is three games behind the Boston Red Sox in the wild-card race and just one behind the Tampa Bay Rays and I believe they’re going to come out with a special effort after suffering a heartbreaking 4-3 loss to Toronto in 12 innings on Thursday night on Edwin Encarnacion’s game-winning homer.

The Angels will have staff ace and Cy Young contender Jered Weaver on the mound tonight and that’s a good thing with the right-hander going 3-0 with a stellar 1.21 ERA in four starts against Oakland this season.

L.A. is 21-5 in Weaver’s L/26 home starts against a team with a losing record while the A’s have compiled a dismal 1-5 mark in their last six games against their AL West divisional rivals.

Oakland is also 28 in Gio Gonzalez’ s L/10 road starts, so it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the A’s are in big trouble.

Steve Janus

Los Angeles Dodgers -115

Both of these teams have showed some great fight at the end of the season, despite no chance of making it to the playoffs. Los Angeles has won 5 of 6 including 2 of 3 over the Giants in their last series. The Padres have also won 5 of their last 6. The success of both of these teams has kept the money line close in this one, but the Dodgers have a clear advantage on the mound that makes them the easy pick to win this game.

LA will send out Ted Lilly, who is coming off a solid performance against the Pirates in his last start. He allowed just 1 ER on four hits over 7 innings of work. The Padres will counter with Wade LeBlanc, who has not had a ton of success in his 12 starts this season. He has a 5.07 ERA and 1.538 WHIP on the season and a 4.86 ERA over his last three starts.

What really sets these two starters apart is how they have performed against the other team. Lilly is 9-4 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Padres, while LeBlanc is 1-5 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 7 career starts against the Dodgers.

LA is 25-8 in their last 33 games as a favorite, 11-1 in their last 12 Friday games, and 4-0 in Lillys last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. BET THE DODGERS!

Hollywood Sports

Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals -1.5

St. Louis has won 30 of their last 36 home games with Chris Carpenter pitching as a favorite of at least a -201 price. How to best manipulate this information? We make it a general rule to not play favorites that are pricier than a 3:2 (-150 with the money line) since that requires a 60% winning percentage just to break even. However, with the Cardinals still with much at stake since they are just two games behind the Braves for the wildcard spot in the National League, St. Louis is a solid proposition laying the 1.5 runs with the run-line. Carpenter thrives at home where he enjoys a 3.16 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .259 opponent's batting average as compared to his 4.16 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .285 opponent's batting average when on the road. He should outduel the Cubs' Ryan Dempster who is saddled with a 5.83 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and .299 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Cubs have lost 4 of their last 5 road games with Dempster on the mound. The veteran right-hander is not ending this season strong either as he is 0-5 with a 4.71 ERA over his last six starts. The Cubs have not been very good in situations like this as they have lost 21 of their last 27 road games as an underdog in the +151 to +200 price range. The Cardinals have won 7 straight home games when facing a right-handed starting pitchers. Behind Carpenter, St. Louis should win this game. Rather than laying over a 2:1 price, take the Cardinals minus the 1.5 run-line at a much better price while listing both starting pitchers.

SPORTS WAGERS

EDMONTON +105 over Montreal

The Als have been the class of the league or damn near close to it for years. Everyone expects them to wake up and get it going every week. They don’t. They lost at home again last week to the Bombers and they’re just 6-5 on the year. The Als defense is weak and the offense is committing far too many mistakes. The Als have lost three of four and five of their past eight games. Most of their wins have come against bottom feeders. The Eskies got off to a tremendous start before injuries set in. They’re now healthy again and they belted the Ticats 38-23 and it probably should’ve been worse. When these two met in Montreal on Aug 11, the Eskies were all banged up and out of sorts. That was then and this is now a much different team than the one the Als saw in Montreal. The Als have plenty of flaws this season but their reputation and Hall-of-Fame QB make them a false road favorite. Fact is, they’re beatable this year and every team is gunning for them. The Eskies are next in line. Play: Edmonton +105 (Risking 2 units).

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Texas Rangers -1.5 -110

With a win (and an Angels loss), the Rangers can clinch the AL West tonight. That's all the motivation they'll need to take it to a Seattle club they've defeated 12 times in 16 meetings this season. These teams have met 6 times in Texas this season, and the Rangers have won 5 of those meetings. Texas will have an excellent opportunity to continue its dominance over Seattle with Matt Harrison taking the mound. He's won his last 4 starts against the Mariners with each of those wins coming by 2 runs or more. The Rangers are a perfect 11-0 all-time in the second half of the season with Harrison on the hill against an AL club with a batting average of .255 or worse. The Rangers have won by an average score of 6.8 to 2.4 in this situation. We'll take Texas on the run line.

David Banks

UCF / BYU Over

This week’s Friday night telecast takes us to Mormon Country where the BYU Cougars will look to turn the page on last week’s embarrassing home loss in the “Holy War” when they line up against the upstart Knights of Central Florida; kick-off from LaVell Edwards Stadium is set for 8:00 ET on ESPN.

UCF invades Provo having just had its four game SU & ATS winning streak snapped dating back to last season when it fell to the up and coming Florida international Golden Panthers 17-10 as 6.5-point road favorites. A number of things cost head coach George O’Leary’s kids a win, and though they outgained FIU 300-238, the mistakes were too big to overcome. The 51-yard fumble return for a score killed all the momentum the team built right before the break, and losing the turnover battle 2:0 along with 10 penalties didn’t help matters either. Still, this is a team that’s gotten better with every passing season under the watch of the current coaching regime, and QB Jeff Godfrey is cut of the same cloth Denard Robinson of Michigan is in terms of electrifying with both his arm and legs. UCF has also been fabulous to its backers as visitors covering the closing spread in 13 of its L/16 away from Orlando.

After escaping Oxford with a 14-13 win over the Mississippi Rebels in Week 1, the Cougars ended up landing on the wrong end of a one-point defeat the following week in Austin where they fell to the Texas Longhorns 17-16 as 7.5-point underdogs. Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s squad then took on the Utah Utes last week in the first battle between the hated rivals with both school’s not residing in the same conference. If ever a mulligan was issued in college football, BYU would be first in line looking for the do-over. The Cougars turned the pigskin over an unheard of seven times (six fumbles), which allowed Utah to turn what was a close game right before the half into an all out gut-busting laugher. The 54-10 smackdown dropped the Cougars to 1-2 SU & ATS on the year; they’re 5-2 ATS the L/7 times they took the field off a loss of 20+ points the previous week.

Tonight’s gridiron meeting marks the first time these programs have faced one another. UCF is a moneymaking 10-4 ATS when installed underdogs the L/14 times as well as 7-1 ATS its L/8 as road pups. On the flipside, BYU is 6-2 ATS its L/8 non-conference match-ups as well as 13-1 SU its L/14 on Friday nights with the lone defeat coming last season against Utah State. The ‘under’ is a perfect 6-0 in the Knights L/6 games played as well as 5-0 in the Cougars L/5 under the Friday night lights.
The under trend takes a turn tonight as the 2 teams light it up in front of a national audience.