SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +173 over L.A. ANGELS
Angels played a 12-inning game last night against the Jays and had one hit after the fifth inning. They probably got into their beds about 6:00 in the morning today after a heartbreaking and impactful loss last night. They also cross time zones and they’ll face a good one in Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has a 3.33 ERA this season and a 3.23 ERA over his past four starts. He can be downright dominating at times and he could be dominating here against a fatigued club. These teams playing spoiler are so dangerous. They’re playing meaningful games and they have an impact on who gets in and who doesn’t. Jered Weaver has tremendous numbers. He has elite control and an elite strikeout rate. However, his skills erode the second and third time through lineups and there’s more reason for concern. His groundball/fly-ball rate over the past month is an alarming 26%/60%. Weaver and the Angels surely can win here but the price is way too high on a more rested and definitely dangerous A’s club that will play their hearts out in this series in an attempt to eliminate the Angels slim hopes. Play: Oakland +173 (Risking 2 units).
WASHINGTON –108 over Atlanta
Stephen Strasburg was a –225 favorite over the Marlins and Chris Volstad his last time out. The Nats lost that game but haven’t lost since. Now the price on Strasburg drops more than a full dollar against a Braves team that is reeling with seven wins in 20 games at the most crucial time of the year. Atlanta has been outscored 87-67 during that 20-game stretch, so they have struggled to score runs while their pitching has frayed. The Braves have a 4.17 September ERA, its worst for any month and considerably higher than its 3.46 season-long ERA. The Nats are loving life right now and would love to make life miserable for the Braves. Strasburg has not walked a single batter in his 14 frames while striking out 11. He has a 1.29 ERA and while he may not go more than five, the Nats pen has been near flawless for weeks. Again, Strasburg was a-225 favorite last time out and he’s underwhelmingly less this time out and now the Nats are on fire. Play: Washington –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Black Widow
1* on San Francisco Giants -110
The San Francisco Giants face a must-win situation tonight. They play NL West-leading Arizona and still have a shot to overcome the Diamondbacks in the division. They also trail the Atlanta Braves by four games for the wild-card spot, so this team still has a lot to play for. Look for Matt Cain to get it done tonight and lead his team to victory. Cain, 4-1 with a 3.97 ERA against the Diamondbacks in 2011, will try for a fourth consecutive winning start at Chase Field. He's posted a 2.61 ERA while winning his last three there dating to 2010. Joe Saunders has hit a rough patch of late for Arizona, going 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his last two starts, both against the lowly San Diego Padres. Saunders is 0-3 with a 5.21 ERA against the Giants in 2011. Take San Francisco on the Money Line.
Ray Monohan
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
Boston is trying to avoid a late fishing trip, which they’ll have plenty of time for if they continue to lose their grip on the wild card in the American League. Jon Lester (15-8, 3.15) hasn’t been doing his part to help the Red Sox, as he fell to Tampa Bay for the second straight start, this time at home in a 4-3 loss. The 27-year-old is 2-1 in four starts against the Yankees this season with a 4.30 ERA, but he has won both of his starts in New York despite a 5.25 ERA. Freddy Garcia (11-8, 3.77) didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in a 3-0 loss in Toronto, allowing three runs on five hits over 4.2 innings with four strikeouts and three walks, and he was taken deep twice by Adam Lind. He’s struggled against Boston, posting an 0-2 record in four games (three starts) with an ERA of 6.92. Garcia is also 7-4 in 12 starts at home with a 4.34 ERA at home in 2011. Both pitchers are really struggling towards the finish line, so a shootout isn’t out of the question, but we’re backing the Yankees, who will be motivated to stick it to their rivals. Boston’s starting pitching has been looked at all season and it will come back to bite them in a loss to the Yankees Friday night.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on the Philadelphia Phillies as they take on the New York Mets set to start at 7:05 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game. Weather is going to be a major issue and the game may not get played due to heavy rains setting up a possible double header Saturday or Sunday. The Phillies locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs and promptly loss six straight games and the offense has gone AWOL. They have not scored more than three runs in eight straight games. The Cardinals are closing fast on the Braves for the Wild Card and the Phillies do not want to face the Cardinals with Chris Carpenter and Garcia in a short series. The injury bug has hit Philadelphia hard the past two seasons, but no team has greater post season experience than the Phillies over the past three seasons. Ryan Howard has been rested since Saturday allowing a nick to his left foot time to heal. Chase Utley is nursing a right foot injury, Polanco has an abdominal issue, Hunter Pence has a knee issue where he can run at about 90%, and Rollins has a groin pull. This list has a lot to do with the six straight losses as the subs and minor league call-ups have filed to generate offense. Look for Hunter Pence and Ryan Howard to be in the lineup tonight. Even the bullpen that has been so dominant all season has had troubles of late. All of these worries are removed when you know you have Cliff Lee, who has pitched his team to the previous three World Series and he will not even be the Game 1 starter in the playoffs. The Mets are in a series of poor situations for this game noting they are just 9-20 losing 10.9 units per one unit wagered against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 5-15 losing 11.4 units per one unit wagered against the money line in home games facing NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs per game in the second half of this season; 10-21 losing 13.2 units per one unit wagered against the money line in home games facing a NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of this season; 0-11 losing 12.1 units per one unit wagered against the money line in home games after four or more consecutive road games this season. Mets starter Dickey is just 2-10 losing 10.1 units against the money line in home games facing a NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. Philadelphia is well supported for a win tonight noting they are a solid 28-12 making 13.2 units against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season; 41-18 making 16.7 units per one unit wagered against the money line when the total is seven or less this season. Hamels will pitch well tonight against the Mets coming off two straight loss decisions. None of the four aces on the Phillies staff have extended losing streaks and Hamels has greater motivation to end his streak and his team?s six game streak. He has posted a 2.95 ERA with a 1.003 WHIP in 15 road starts this season. Take the Phillies.
MLB Predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers -117
Quick notes: Ted Lilly has a low 2.59 ERA over his last 9 starts, which includes an opponents batting average of just .173. Wade LeBlanc is just 4-5 on the season with an ERA of 5.07, 1.54 WHIP, and opponents batting average of .290. The Dodgers are one of the league's hottest teams going 21-8 in their last 29 overall, including 4-1 in their last 5 road games, 25-8 in their last 33 as a favorite, and 11-1 in their last 12 Friday games. The Padres are just 8-21 in their last 29 as a home underdog, and 16-35 vs NL West opponents. The Dodgers are 8-1 in these two teams last 9 meetings, and 4-1 in Lilly's last 5 starts vs the Padres. The Padres are just 1-6 in LeBlanc's last 7 starts vs the Dodgers. The play is Los Angeles here.