Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 24,2010

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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When Adam Wainwright takes the mound against the Cubs in Chicago Friday afternoon he will do so knowing he is 7-2 in his career team starts in this series, including 5-0 in this park. Wainwright i s also 5-0 in his last five September road team starts. With that look for Chicago's Tom Gorzelanny to dip to 2-6 at home in his career team starts against the Redbirds here this today. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Orioles at Blue Jays
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The Orioles enter Toronto after taking two of three games from the Red Sox in Boston. Baltimore has won three of their last four games and six of their last nine games overall. They swept Toronto in a 3-game series in Baltimore last week. Chris Tillman makes the start for the Orioles. He's 1-4 with a 6.42 ERA in nine outings, six of which have gone Under the total. Tillman's last road start was a no-decision against Detroit where he gave up one run and one hit in 6.7 innings pitched. The righty pitched against the Blue Jays back in May and gave up two runs and six hits in 5.7 innings of work. Ironically, Tillman has faced the Blue Jays in Toronto in all three of his career starts against them. Vernon Wells (0-9), Aaron Hill (2-9), Adam Lind (2-9), John McDonald (0-2), and Travis Snider (0-1) have poor numbers against the Orioles starter. Toronto has gone Under the total in four of their last five games and Under in six of their last nine games overall.
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Brett Cecil's last six starts have been against the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees two times apiece. He'll be glad to pitch against the light-hitting Baltimore Orioles tonight. The lefty gave up two runs and four hits in eight innings pitched against the Orioles back in May. Adam Jones (2-8), Nolan Reimold (1-4), Brian Roberts (0-3), Ty Wigginton (0-3), and Matt Wieters (0-3) all have poor numbers against the lefty. Baltimore has gone Under the total in 30 of their 47 games against left-handed starters while hitting just .247 against them. They've lost all six games in Toronto this season while hitting just .215 as a team. The Orioles have gone Under in seven of their last 10 games, and we expect them to play another low-scoring game in Toronto tonight.

Black WidowFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1* on Florida Marlins +135
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Florida is showing excellent value Friday as a big underdog against Milwaukee. Mark Rogers makes his first start of the season for the Brewers, and there's no way he should be this big of a favorite. The Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record and 17-7 in their last 24 vs. a team with a losing record overall. Florida is 22-22 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. So given those numbers, they've made bettors a lot of money in the role of the road dog. The Marlins actually have played their best baseball on the road, sporting a 40-38 road record. Milwaukee is just 38-40 at home this year. Take the Marlins on the Money Line.

Info PlaysFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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3* on New York Mets +136
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Reasons the Mets win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - after 5 straight games where they stranded 8 or more runners on base, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games. This is a 54-35 ML System hitting 60.7% since 1997 while gaining +38 units. This system is 5-2 this season.
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2.) R.A. Dickey. Quietly, the knuckleballer is having a great season going 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.185 WHIP. The Phillies have been unbeatable with Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels on the mound over the last month, but New York can get after Joe Blanton. The righty is just 7-6 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.438 WHIP this season. Dickey is 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA in 3 starts vs. Philly this season. Bet the Mets on the road.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5
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The Atlanta Braves are getting into must-win territory, and there is no better starter to handle this pressure than Tim Hudson. He is having a Cy Young-worthy year for Atlanta, going 16-8 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.124 WHIP in 32 starts. Washington goes with Jordan Zimmerman tonight, who has lacked control issues and has had a hard time getting anyone out this year. Zimmerman is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in 5 starts this season.
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Few teams have dominated the Nationals like Hudson has. Atlanta's starter is a superb 10-1 with a 1.55 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 17 career starts vs. Washington. Hudson has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 16 of those 17 starts, and he has gone at least 6.2 innings in 16 of those 17 contests as well. Now that's domination. I fully expect the Braves to get their bats going tonight against Zimmerman, and for Hudson to come up big and shut down this weak Nationals line-up. Roll with the Braves on the Run Line Friday.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Take: Arizona Diamondbacks
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A pair of teams that are finishing up disappointing seasons. The Dodgers were expected to be much better and they've really fallen apart in the second half. Manny is gone and Joe Torre won't be far behind. LA has had starting pitching problems all season and they go with John Ely (4-8, 5.00 ERA), who has a 10.66 ERA his last three starts. Arizona has home field and a winning pitcher in Barry Enright (6-5, 3.87 ERA). Play the Diamondbacks.

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TCU Horned Frogs -17.5
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The winner of this Metroplexrivalry wins the Iron Skillet trophy and SMU has not had the trophy in their possession since 2005. The SMU passing game has not yet hit their stride this season and that will be a big problem in this match up with TCU. The Mustangs only chance to stay close is to put some points on the scoreboard through the air, but I don't believe they will be able to do so against a very good TCU defense. The Horned Frogs should dominate the line of scrimmage on both side of the ball and TCU quarterback Andy Dalton should carve up the Mustangs secondary. Dalton has a 161.4 passer rating so far this season which is fourth best in the country. Dalton has thrown for 624 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions so far this season on 53 completions out of 71 attempts. As good as Dalton has been the running game has been even better led by Ed Wesley who has 47 carries for 384 yards and 4 touchdowns. The SMU defense just will not be able to compete. TCU has been a money making 42-21 against the spread since 2005 and I look for that success to continue. Lay the points.

Bobby MaxwellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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TCU (-17') at SMU
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For my comp selection, TCU has been known for its defense the last several years, but now the Horned Frogs are pretty good offensively as well with QB Andrew Dalton playing near perfect football so far this season. I’m going to lay the points and play TCU tonight in this game from Dallas as they take on SMU in this in-state rivalry game.
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Dalton has a QB rating of 161.4 and he’s completed almost 75 percent of his throws for 624 yards and four TDs. He’s also rushed for 113 yards and scored three TDs on the ground. He’s led TCU to 32 victories in his career and they have won 17 of 18, losing only to Boise St in the Fiesta Bowl last year.
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TCU is averaging 45.7 points a game behind the play of Dalton and RB Ed Wesley, who has rushed for 384 yards and averages 8.2 per carry.
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All that offense and they continue to be strong defensively, giving up just 222.7 yards a game – good for fourth in the nation.
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SMU beat its first BCS conference school in 10 years when they beat Washington State on Saturday, 35-21. But this is a completely different beast they are taking on today. TCU is the real deal and will deliver a dose of reality and a beating to the Mustangs.
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Last year, TCU beat SMU and retained the Iron Skillet for the third straight year with a 39-14 victory. Dalton had two fourth-quarter TD passes that put the game out of reach, but SMU covered as 28-point road ‘dogs. Last time they went to SMU was 2008 when TCU delivered a 48-7 beating and easily cashed as 24 ½-point chalk.
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The Horned Frogs have scored at least 30 points in nine of their last 10 games, with the only low-scoring game they’ve had coming in that Fiesta Bowl loss, 17-10. TCU is on ATS streaks of 8-3 overall, 7-3 in September, 6-2 on Fridays and 5-1 on the highway. Meanwhile, SMU is just 1-4 ATS at home.
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I’m going to lay the points and play TCU in this one!
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5♦ TCU

Karl GarrettFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas (-110) at OAKLAND
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AL West division still not clinched by Texas yet, as pesky Oakland blanked the Rangers 5-0 last night to make it 3 straight series wins, and wins in 5 of the last 6 against the division front-runner.
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G-Man calling for the Rangers to hand young Bobby Cramer his first loss at this level. Cramer has won both of his starts since his call up, but he is up against Tommy Hunter who does still sport at 12-4 season mark despite an 0-2 mark his last 3 starts.
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Hunter has only allowed 2 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts, and G-Man sees him righting the ship this evening for Texas as they look to clinch their first AL West title in quite some time.
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The price is dirt cheap tonight, and I am on Texas to deliver!
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4♦ TEXAS

Stephen Nover

Seattle (+1', -130) at TAMPA BAY

For my Friday free selection I will offer the Seattle Mariners on the run line against Tampa Bay.

The Mariners catch the Rays returning home to Tampa after winning the last two in their pivotal series with the New York Yankees in the Bronx. The Rays are in a letdown mode after pounding the Yankees on Thursday night.

The Rays are big favorites - making the Mariners attractive on the run line - even though they are pitching a cold Jeff Niemann, who has clearly been their weak link. Tampa Bay has lost the past five times Niemann has taken the mound.

Since returning from the DL, Niemann is 0-4 with a 14.43 ERA. Niemann's ERA in his past two starts is 11.45. He's clearly struggling.

Seattle is pitching Jason Vargas. He's trying to reach double-digit wins for the first time in his career. Vargas has a very respectable 3.14 lifetime ERA versus Tampa Bay in 14 innings.

Ichiro Suzuki is hot again for the Mariners, batting .412 during his past eight games. The Mariners would be 4-2 in their past six games if given 1 1/2 runs.

2♦ SEATTLE +1.5

Joel Tyson

N.Y. Mets at PHILADELPHIA

Your Friday night freebie is to play the under in the Mets-Phillies game.

R.A. Dickey and Joe Blanton could certainly get lit up, but they are both capable of matching pitches and throwing the goose eggs on the board as well.

The Phillies have been playing them low of late, going 3-1-1 under the total their last 5 games overall, while the Mets have split their last 4 going over in a pair, and under in a pair.

The series numbers show an under trend between the teams, as the last pair of series meetings, and 5 of the last 6 in this rivalry have stayed under the total.

Back it up a bit further, and you will find that 20 of the last 27 games played between the Mets and the Phillies have stayed under the posted price.

Dickey's season ERA is 2.92, so let's take this game to hold under the posted total to open the weekend.

2♦ UNDER

Brett Atkins

On to my free winner - the Padres are a struggling bunch right now, as they fell out of first place in the N.L. West with Thursday’s loss to the Dodgers. Now they have to face the N.L. Central leading Reds who are looking to finally wrap things up and claim the division crown with their magic number sitting at 3.

Tonight the Reds have Bronson Arroyo on the mound who has gone an exceptional 10-5 on the road. In his four starts in San Diego, Arroyo has held the Padres to three runs or less in each of the four outings.

Chris Young makes his second comeback start tonight after making just one start in the last year-and-a-half. His first comeback outing was Saturday in St. Louis when he allowed one run in four innings of an 8-4 victory. He hasn’t pitched at Petco since June 2009.

San Diego is on skids of 4-10 at home, 5-12 after a loss, 4-13 as favorites and 0-5 on Fridays. Cincinnati is on surges of 18-8 in series openers, 11-4 when Arroyo pitches on the road and 5-1 when he faces N.L. West teams.

Play the Reds to take this one and get a little closer to clinching the division crown.

3♦ CINCINNATI

Chris JordanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta at WASHINGTON (+165)
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Now on a 25-12 run with MLB free plays, and today I am rolling with the Nationals over the Braves.
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The Nationals are a daring play against Timmy Hudson, who is 10-1 with a 1.55 ERA in 17 starts against them. And, yes, I know he is 2-0 in four matchups this season with three resulting in Atlanta victories.
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But the Braves have hit some hard times after being swept by the Phils, and even though Hudson is in after giving up just two runs with seven strikeouts in seven innings of a 4-2 win at New York last Saturday, make note he went into that contest having lost his three previous games with a 6.38 ERA.
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Instead, I'm taking a shot with Jordan Zimmerman, who might have been pelted in losing his last two starts after posting a 13.50 ERA, but won his only start against the Braves on April 20, 2009, allowing two runs in six innings of a 3-2 victory at Nationals Park. Something tells me that will provide enough confidence for him to get this W.
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3♦ WASHINGTON

Chuck O'BrienFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta at WASHINGTON (+165)
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I’ve hit 17 of 25 free plays in September, including nine of the last 13 overall and seven of eight in baseball! Tonight, I’ll take the big plus money with Washington at home against the Braves.
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Strictly a value play here, as Atlanta is limping to the finish line. It just got swept in three games in Philadelphia (scoring a grand total of four runs), and that three-game sweep is part of a 7-10 slump (5-7 on the road) that has dropped Bobby Cox’s club six games back of the Phillies (the Braves’ have now set their sights on the wild card).
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The Nationals have shown some spunk this week, and they’ve had the Braves’ number recently, winning three of the last four meetings (all in Atlanta, where the Braves are 52-33 on the season). Going back to the final weekend of last season, the Nationals are on a 12-7 roll against their N.L. East rivals.
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Certainly, you have to give Atlanta the edge on the mound tonight with Tim Hudson (16-8, 2.61 ERA) opposing Washington rookie Jordan Zimmerman (0-2, 6.75 ERA in five starts). But Hudson hasn’t exactly been automatic lately, going 2-4 with a 4.70 ERA in his last six starts (including two road losses). And though he’s dominated the Nats over the last calendar year (1.51 ERA in five starts), Atlanta is just 3-2 in those games (1-1 in D.C.).
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As for Zimmerman, he was Washington’s most prized pitching prospect pre-Stephen Strasburg, but (like Strasburg) he went down with an elbow injury last year that cost him most of this 2010 season. But when healthy last year, the right-hander dominated the Braves in a 3-2 home win, allowing two runs on six hits in six innings.
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The bottom line here is the Braves SHOULD win this game, but with the way they’re gripping it right now (and given Hudson’s recent mediocrity) I’m definitely willing to roll the dice with the Nats, whom you know would love to throw a monkey wrench into the Braves’ playoff run.
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2♦ WASHINGTON