Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
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The Rangers are struggling losing 4 of their last 5 games as they cruise into the playoffs. Their purpose right now is to set up the rotation and get the key offensive players completely healed.
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Oakland has won 5 of the last 6 meetings and tonight they throw a lefty starter that the Rangers have never seen, Bobby Cramer. Cramer has looked good in his first two starts with an impressive 2.45 ERA in winning both games.
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On the season Texas hits 15 points worse against left-handed starters and they have played much poorer ball when taking to the road. The price is right to back the youngster here.
Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Houston Astros
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Houston starter Brett Myers has allowed 3 or less runs in 8 straight starts. Myers is 19-11 in his 30 team starts this year. The Astros are 11-4 off a loss and they are 19-7 their last 26 games vs. NL Central teams. Houston is 4-0 in game one of a series. Pittsburgh starter James McDonald is 4-6 in 10 starts this year. The Pirates are 6-20 their last 26 games vs. the Astros. The Pirates are 30-67 their last 97 games overall. The Bucs are 29-71 their last 100 games vs. righty starters and they are 19-42 in game one of a series.
Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on LA Angels -139
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The White Sox have dropped 8 of their last 9, and with nothing to play for, I expect their struggles to continue on this West Coast trip. The Angels are still playing inspired baseball and have won 9 of their last 13 as a result. I like their chances with Pineiro, who pitched well in his return to the mound at Tampa Bay. He should be even better tonight on his home field, where he is 7-2 (9-2 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.37 this season. Garcia has turned in a solid season for the South Siders, but his 5.21 road ERA in a big concern this evening. The Angels are a perfect 8-0 in Pineiro's last 8 home starts, and I'll continue to ride this trend tonight.
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Red Sox @ YankeesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PICK: Under 9.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Both of these pitchers are capable of big game performances. Couple that with a favorable total posted here and playoff-like intensity and you have the perfect scenario for a pitchers' duel. Andy Pettitte is at his best in these late season settings and his most recent start stayed under the total even though the game went eleven innings. As for Josh Beckett, his numbers have fallen this season but this is still a guy who is capable of reaching back for that "extra edge" in a big game setting. That said, there is nothing the Red Sox would like more than to help prevent the Yankees from winning the AL East. The problem for the Red Sox is that their lineup is showing inconsistent sticks once again. Facing a fresh Pettitte (his arm is "live" after spending a good portion of this season on the shelf) is certainly unlikely to help the Red Sox at the plate. The Yankees bats have also gone quiet in their last couple games and this one should grind out to a 3-2 type game. That said, consider a small play on under the total in the New York Yankees game on Friday night.
Jeff BentonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I’ve hit eight of my last 12 freebies, part of a 132-103-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away. For Friday’s free play, we’ll lay the small price with the Rockies in a crucial contest against the Giants.
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It’s never easy to go against Tim Lincecum, especially when he’s an underdog – and frankly, that’s the only reason this isn’t a play I’m releasing to my paying clients. Because if Lincecum wasn’t pitching, I’d be on the Rockies BIG tonight, and the main reason is they’re playing at Coors Field.
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Colorado is a remarkable 51-24 at home (including 43-17 in the last 60), where it is hitting an equally remarkable .304 as a team! Compare that to the Rockies’ 31-45 record and .230 average on the road and you can see just how different this team is when playing in Denver. Now look at the Giants, who are a respectable 41-37 on the road, but they hit just .247. And prior to last night’s wind-aided 13-0 win at Wrigley Field, San Francisco hadn’t been hitting a lick lately no matter where it has played, posting a .220 average in its previous 10 games), and the Giants have still tallied two runs or fewer in eight of their last 14 contests.
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Tonight, that offense runs up against red-hot Rockies right-hander Jhoulys Chacin, who is 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts and 4-1 with a 0.95 ERA in his last six outings (with Colorado going 5-1). Chacin – whose 3.30 ERA is better than Lincecum’s (3.60) – has dominated San Francisco twice this year, giving up three runs in six innings of a 6-3 home win on June 2, exactly two months after allowing one hit in seven scoreless innings of a 4-1 road victory.
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Back to Lincecum: He’s coming off a tough-luck 2-1 home loss to the Brewers, and San Francisco is just 3-6 in his last nine starts overall and 3-5 in his last eight starts against the Rockies and they’ve come up empty in his last four starts at Coors Field). What’s more, the Giants have dropped seven of their last nine overall in Denver.
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6♦ COLORADO ROCKIES
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Cincinnati +1.08 over SAN DIEGOFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Reds magic number is three and of the all the games in this series one has to believe this one is more winnable than the others. Chris Young (remember him?) was named to start here and this will be Young's second start since his only game of the year way back in April. He lasted four innings against the Cardinals in his last start six days ago and although he only allowed three hits and one run, he also walked three batters and that’s a big concern. In the minors this year, Young has walked 12 batters in 14 IP. So, what can we expect of Young? Hard to say since he's been out so much and had so many injuries the last few years. In 2006 and 2007 he had some very productive seasons, but it's been injuries and interruptions since. Last season in 76 IP he had an ERA of 5.21 that flattered his 5.80 xERA. In a park where runs are hard to come by you can count on Young to aid the Reds by walking some hitters and that’s playing with fire. By contrast, Bronson Arroyo rarely walks anyone. Arroyo pitches half his games at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark but when he leaves those confines he’s been terrific. On the road, he’s 10-5 with an ERA of 3.77 and a BAA of .232. His 1.17 WHIP is one of the leagues top marks and he comes in facing a Padre team that has lost four of its last seven to the uninterested Dodgers and Cardinals. Now San Diego will face a determined bunch that is looking to lock up the division and a postseason appearance. Play: Cincinnati +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
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MILWAUKEE –1½ +1.36 over FloridaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After pitching a pair of scoreless innings in relief this month, right-hander Mark Rogers will make his first career start for the Brewers. Keep your eye on this guy. After missing all of '07 and '08, the hard-throwing Rogers returned in '09 and showed glimpses of what made him the fifth overall pick in the '04 draft. Rogers still struggles to command his pitches, but his fastball is back to its usual self and his hard, tight slider is a solid put away pitch. He pitches from a deceptive drop-and-drive delivery that can be tough for hitters to solve. His 91-97 mph fastball looks quicker because of it. Rogers is a definite groundball pitcher who rarely allows the long ball. His slider, though inconsistent, gives him a weapon against hitters from both sides. He also has a curveball and an average changeup at his disposal. Rogers had difficulty with command prior to his shoulder surgeries and he continues to experience bouts of wildness. If he improves his command, he could vault back up the Brewers prospect charts. He’ll face Andrew Miller. Miller's eroding skills have been on a two year decline and it’s not getting any better. He has a walk rate of 6.3, almost two batters worse than his strikeout rate of 4.5. He’s allowed 19 runs and walked 10 over 10 1-3 innings during his last three starts. Miller has an ERA of 8.17, his groundball rate is 35% and his line-drive rate is a hefty 30%. This guy has been batting practice out there and there’s no reason whatsoever to think that stops now. Incidentally, the Brew Crew has won five straight at home. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
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Kansas City +1.10 over CLEVELANDFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Luke Hochevar missed three months from June to September 7 when he threw three innings against the Twins. He’s made two starts since then and he’s looking better and stronger each time. Hochevar went 7-13 with a 6.55 ERA in 143 IP at KC last season. However, he developed a splitter in 2H and bam! Great stuff to go along with elite command. His strand % and HR/FB rained on the parade, but xERA says this is a pitcher whose surface stats make him hugely undervalued, especially against a Tribe squad that’s lost five in a row and that’s seeing BB’s. Josh Tomlin has a groundball rate of 29%. He fooled some folks in his first few starts but that’s over with now. Tomlin had a 6.14 ERA in Double-AA last season and his ERA has been progressively rising for a few starts now and his xERA is at a dull 5.19. Also note the Royals are swinging some pretty sweet bats these days and in fact, they’ve scored 51 times over its last nine games. Play: Kansas City +1.10 (Risking 2 units).FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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WINNIPEG +6 over MontrealFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Als are 8-3 and Anthony Cavillo is back. Cavillo played last week and although the Als won, they beat the dreadful Eskies and Cavillo didn’t look that sharp. The Blue Bombers are much better than its 3-8 record suggests. They’ve beaten themselves on at least three occasions and could easily be 5-6 or 6-5. They play a physical game and when they’re on they’re tough to beat. Now Winnipeg will play this game with everything on the line. Another loss here and they’re very likely to miss the playoffs. They’ll leave nothing on the table for this one and don’ think they’re not dangerous because they are. The Als are cruising. They’ve now won two in a row and they have the Stamps up next in Calgary. That’s a big game while this one is just a stopover. Montreal’s defense gives up big plays time and time again and that’s another big concern. The CFL is loaded with inconsistent play and limited talent and that’s why so many upsets occur year after year after year. The Als are not immune and they’re not nearly as good as they were a season ago. So, what we have here is an undervalued squad vs an overvalued squad in a look ahead spot. Play: Winnipeg +6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -123
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The Rockies have to take care of business at home in this series if they are to have any chance of sneaking into the playoffs. Fortunately, the Giants are just 2-7 in their last 9 meetings in Colorado and 0-4 in Lincecum's last 4 start at Coors Field. Meanwhile, the Rockies are in good hands with Chacin, who is 2-0 lifetime with an ERA of 2.08 against the Giants. The Rockies have won each of his last 3 starts, they are 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the National League West and 5-1 in his last 6 home starts. I'm taking the Rockies tonight.
Glenn McGrewFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Twins at TigersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit has been great at home all season and this is a cheap price with their ace going. Minnesota has already had a clinch party and manage Ron Gardenhire said he's like to win more games and make sure his players are sharp for the postseason -- just not at the expense of wearing out players the rest of the way. They face Tiger ace Justin Verlander, who is 3-0 his last three starts with a 2.25 ERA. Play the Tigers.
VEGAS EXPERTSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
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Tonight’s Tip is all about the pitching matchup with Liriano and Verlander. Left-handed Liriano has been having some rough starts lately with a 5.00 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in his last three starts. He tends to give up a decent amount of runs when starting away from home with a 4.19 ERA in all road starts. On the other side of tonight’s pitching matchup, Verlander is starting for Detroit. He has been having a decent season and has been pitching very well lately. He has a consistent 3.46 ERA and 1.190 WHIP in all his starts, and tends to pitch the best at home with a 2.51 ERA and 1.096 WHIP and he also has a team start record of 25-6 at home. He has been having some great matchups lately with a 2.25 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last three starts. Should be a good night for the Tigers, Play on Detroit!
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Play on: Detroit Tigers
John RyanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: Boston Red Sox
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5* graded play on Boston as they take on the Yankees set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Boston will win this game. Beckett has finally gotten it together after going through a rough season affected by minor ailments. He has posted a 3.26 ERA allowing just one home run and striking out 20 batters in his last three starts. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in five straight starts. Pettitte did well in his first start in two months at Baltimore. It is not likely he will be as strong in this game and the bullpen is extremely tired. The NYY bullpen has posted a 5.70 ERA and a 1.859 WHIP allowing four home runs and 12 bases on balls over their last seven games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-18 for 60% winners since 1997. Play against home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher and is an average hitting team batting = .265 to .279 and now facing a below average AL starting pitcher posting an ERA=5.70 to 6.20 and who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing. Boston is a solid 50-16 (+29.6 Units) against the money line after 5 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Red Sox.
Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -1.5-115
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After getting swept by the Phillies, look for the Braves to bounce back strong to maintain their hold on the NL wild card. Atlanta ace Tim Hudson has been Washington's worst nightmare. The right-hander is 10-1 with an ERA of just 1.55 lifetime against the Nats. Considering 8 of his last 9 wins against Washington have come by at least 2 runs, I'm ready to jump on the Braves on the run line tonight.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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Brett Cecil has done an amazing job on the mound for the Blue Jays when facing division rivals in the tough American League East. Cecil has led the Jays to a 10-3 mark when squaring off within the highly-competitive division. The Orioles have done a great job since Buck Showalter took over the managerial duties. That hasn't applied behind the pitching of Chris Tillman however, as he sports a 6.42 ERA entering this one. His career shows him coming in at 0-3 vs. the Blue Jays. The Orioles have another problem to deal with as they have faced misery crossing the border at just 3-12 in their last 15 in Toronto, and an even longer term 14-37, here vs. the Jays. The Jays are terrorizing right-hand pitching and get the call in this one.
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TCU vs. SMUFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: TCU -17FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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TCU is 3-0 and won the last two weeks by a combined 107-17 score. SMU has started pretty well with a 2-1 record and have outscored their opponent by 35 points at home. TCU is the number four team in the country with a balanced attack and ability to score either rushing or throwing the ball. Look for TCU to make it a 4-0 start as they go into SMU and take care of business. Play TCU
Lenny Del GenioFOR REE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay RaysFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We normally would never bother playing a favorite of this size, but easy money is easy money. The Rays have annihilated lefties this year (35-16, 5.3 runs per game) and Seattle is an atrocious 6-26 as a road dog of +150 or more. Mariners starter Vargas is in trouble considering a 5.71 ERA and 0-3 mark over his last three outings. Tampa Bay enters Friday 1/2 game behind the first place Yankees and their schedule sets up far nicer than New York, so taking advantage is paramount. Do not be surprised to see the Rays win the AL East. Take Tampa Bay.
Hollywood Sports
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
Joel Pineiro makes his second start for the Angels after returning from the disabled list. He is 10-7 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this season but has thrived at home with a 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. The Angels have won eight straight games with Pineiro starting in Angels Stadium. Los Angeles has also won six of their last seven home games overall. Pineiro should fare well against a White Sox team that has lost five straight road games against right-handed starters. He faces off against Freddy Garcia who is 11-6 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP this season. Garcia really struggles on the road given his 5.21 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this year. Chicago has lost five of their last six games on the road and eight of their last nine games overall. They will likely falter again against an Angels team that has won four straight home games against right-handed starters.