Dr Bob
Boise State (-2½) 27 VIRGINIA 24
This game is basically a battle between Virginia’s surprisingly good offense against Boise’s not surprisingly good defense. The ascension of Virginia quarterback Matt Johns led to the transfer of Greyson Lambert to Georgia after the spring practices and both quarterbacks are thriving. Lambert has been incredibly efficient leading Georgia’s attack and Johns has averaged 7.7 yards per pass play despite facing two very good defensive teams in UCLA and Notre Dame. The Cavaliers didn’t score a lot of points against those two opponents (just 21.5 per game) but they averaged 377 yards at 5.5 yards per play, which is very good considering the level of defenses faced in those games. Boise State’s defense is also very good, as the Broncos have yielded just 4.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. My math projects 375 yards for Virginia in this game and that should result in more than 21 points.
Boise State’s offense will be led by two backup quarterbacks this week with starter Ryan Finley out for a while with an injured ankle and both Brett Rypien and Thomas Stuart looked capable last week against Idaho State. Finley was averaging only 6.0 yards per pass play with 4 interceptions against just 1 touchdown pass and I don’t think the backups are likely to be any worse than that. Virginia’s defense lost a lot of stars from last year’s solid unit and so far this season the Cavaliers have has some issues on that side of the ball, allowing 6.5 yards per play and 32.3 points per game (to teams that would combine for 6.1 yppl against an average defense).
Overall the math favors Boise State by 3½ points and 51½ points so I don’t see much value on this game.
Stanford (-15½) 27 OREGON STATE 17
Stanford’s ugly 6-16 week 1 loss to Northwestern is a distant memory thanks to a 41-31 win at USC last Saturday is likely to result in a letdown here in Corvallis. Teams that upset a conference opponent as a dog of more than 7 points are just 42% ATS going back to 1980 if they’re on the road the next week, including only 31-62-1 ATS if their opponent is coming off a win. Stanford is a very good team on both sides of the ball but Oregon State is not a bad team. The Beavers are offensively challenged to be sure but their defense has yielded just 4.4 yards per play (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and overall OSU is a bit better than average from the line of scrimmage. My ratings favor Stanford by just 13 points if quarterback Kevin Hogan is 100% healthy, which probably is not the case given that his injured ankle has him listed as questionable for this game. I think Hogan will play but there is a chance he many not or that he’ll reinjure his bad ankle. The value is on Oregon State and the situation is favorable with Stanford likely to letdown a bit off their big win over the Trojans.
Jim Feist
Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees
Pick: Chicago White Sox
This is a good park to hit in and you need a quality arm on the hill. Chicago is a dog but has 25-year-old lefty Carlos Rodon (8-6, 3.78 ERA) going, with the White Sox 6-2 his last eight starts. Rodon gave up six hits, one earned run and a walk in 7.2 innings in Saturday's 4-3 victory over the Indians. He struck out four. Rodon has now posted seven consecutive quality starts, and his sparkling 1.74 ERA in September. He also has a 3.07 ERA on the road. The White Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter and face fading southpaw C.C. Sabathia (5-9, 4.80 ERA). He has a losing record at home with a 5.75 ERA. The Yankees are on a 1-5 run at home and 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Art Aronson
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Play: Over 11
The visitors hand the ball to Mike Bolsinger (6-4, 3.26 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits over just 3 2/3's innings with four walks and just one K in a no-decision vs. the Diamondbacks on Saturday; note that it was his sixth no-decision in his last nine starts. The home side counters with David Hale (4-5, 6.32 ERA) who is getting another shot at next year's rotation with this matchup, so far the hard-throwing right-hander has struggled mightily this year, posting the deplorable 6.32 ERA to go along with a ghastly 1.46 WHIP. And note, a date at home is not what the doctor ordered for Hale as he's posted a ballooned 6.41 ERA in Colorado thus far. With these two struggling starters squaring off in the opener of this series, there's no question that the OVER is definitely worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
Big Al
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Pick: Dodgers
The Dodgers are very close to wrapping up their third straight NL West Division title, and fifth in the last eight seasons. You would think that that many Pennants would result in at least one NL Championship and trip to the World Series, but that hasn't been the case for this group of October under-achievers. But for now it's still September, and some pretty unlikely names have played big roles for this team to get them to this point. An example is on the mound tonight as RHP Mike Bolsinger gets his 20th start for the Crew in Blue and although he was pretty much unknown to start the season, Bolsinger has put together a pretty nice campaign with a winning record (6-4) and a 3.26 ERA, while more importantly the Dodgers are 11-8 in his 19 starts, including 4-1 in his last five going back to July 22. This will be Bolsinger's second start of the season at Coors Field, and although the Dodgers didn't win that one, Bolsinger didn't do too badly. That was back in early June and Bolsinger should be sharper tonight and he has recent trends on his side as the Dodgers are 22-8 in the last 30 meetings.
Dave Cokin
Cleveland at Kansas City
Play: Cleveland -116
Congratulations to the Royals. Kansas City wrapped up the AL Central title last night with a win against the Mariners. That’s the first division title for the Royals in a whopping 30 years. It also means that unlike last season, when the Royals needed a big late rally in the play-in game just to survive, they now get to relax a bit.
The Royals might also need to relax thanks to a little bit of a hangover. The guys deserved to celebrate this accomplishment and they made sure they did. The clubhouse was awash in champagne, and several thousand Royals fans stuck around for an en masse curtain call that lasted for quite some time.
That makes tonight’s game against the Indians a dead spot of sorts. I’ll have to wait to see what the KC lineup looks like, but it would not be surprising to see a regular or two get a night off.
Beyond that, the Royals also have to contend with hard throwing Carlos Carrasco, who has dominated them twice already this season. Carrasco is “only” 13-11, but he’s been better than that. The Indians are still on life support for the playoffs, trailing the Astros by four games for the second wild card spot. So this game still has meaning for the Tribe.
Edinson Volquez is doing a solid job for the hosts, so this is not anything resembling a slam dunk. But the oddsmakers are tipping their hand here with the Indians now sitting in the road chalk role. That’s right, the team with the best record in the league is hosting a sub-.500 visitor and the road team is the favorite. That’s a tell and I’ll be happy to step and try to take advantage. Let’s put this one strictly into the scheduling scenario category and take a shot with the Indians and Carrasco.
Brad Wilton
Your Friday freebie is the Over in the Boise State-Virginia tilt from Scott Stadium.
Rain is in the forecast that will slick things up for a back-up quarterback on Boise State, whether it be Rypien or Stuart.
I have a feeling that turnovers will certainly play a part of aiding this total in going Over the posted price.
Boise State has played Overs in each of their last 5 road games, while Virginia is 5-1 Over the total in their last 6 non-conference meetings.
The Cavs are allowing just over 30 points per game, while averaging right at the 26 point margin for.
This is a small total, and my hunch is it is because Boise's starting QB Ryan Finley is out with a broken ankle, but I really feel we are going to see about 3 of 4 combined turnovers that will create some short-field scoring chances for these schools, and we will just slip Over the total come the final whistle.
2* BOISE STATE-VIRGINIA OVER
Will Rogers
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals -1½ -105
The Washington Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies in the nation's capital tonight, and neither team will be going to the post-season in 2015. The Nats may have more to play for though, with Bryce Harper gunning for a batting title and Jordan Zimmerman looking for his 14th win.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Zimmerman (13-8, 3.49 ERA) gave up a pair of runs on six hits, striking out seven in six innings in a home win over Miami in his last start. He's 8-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 18 starts at Nationals Park, and 2-0 with a 3.80 ERA in four starts in September. The Phillies counter with rookie Jerad Eickhoff, who is 1-3 with a 3.16 ERA in his last six starts.
2. Bryce Harper - He leads the National League in batting average (.339) and home runs (41). He's batting .340 with eight home runs versus the Phillies this season.
3. X-Factor - The Nats are 6-1 in the last seven head to head meetings between the two teams, and all but one of those games were decided by more than one run.
Jimmy Boyd
Virginia +3
I think there’s some value here with the Cavaliers as a 3-point home dog. The betting public is going to be all over Boise State, which make it very concerning that the oddsmakers opened up this line at 2.5 instead of 3. It has me thinking they are welcoming in money on the Broncos.
While Boise State is coming off a 52-0 win over Idaho State, they lost starting quarterback Ryan Finley for at least 8 weeks with a broken bone in his ankle. It’s unclear who will be the starter, as both Thomas Stuart and Brett Rypien both saw action once Finley was out. Stuart was first off the bench, but Rypien was by far the better of the two on the field. Either way you can’t get excited about what they did against a team like Idaho State. It’s going to be a whole different ballgame going on the road in what will be a hostile environment in a nationally televised weekday night game.
Part of the reason the public will be on Boise State, is the fact that Virginia only won by 6-points as a 22-point favorite at home against William & Mary. I personally wasn’t the least bit surprised to see the Cavaliers not perform up to their expectations given the way they loss to Notre Dame the previous week. I look for a much more focused and energized Virginia team on Friday.
Boise State’s offense wasn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard in their first two games. They managed just 16 points at home against Washington and only 24 against BYU. Virginia doesn’t have great numbers defensively, but they also have played two of the best teams in the country in UCLA and Notre Dame.With an experienced quarterback playing on the road with the pressure of knowing everyone is watching,I think the Broncos offense is going to really struggle.
I think the Virginia offense will step up here and generate a lot of big plays against a Boise State defense that comes in giving up 240.3 ypg through their air (80th). The Cavaliers have the 44th ranked passing attack at 263.3 ypg, which is an impressive stat given they have faced two quality defenses in the Bruins and Fighting Irish.
Boise State is just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 after allowing less than 20 points in their last game and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after scoring more than 40. Virginia is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 against a team with a winning record.
Coach Fletcher
Philadelphia Phillies +224
Nationals Haven’t Given Up Yet, or Have They?
With slim hopes remaining for playoff baseball, the Nationals have responded exactly the way they have responded all year – with an unenthusiastic thud! The Nats were just swept by the Orioles! What a remarkable set of underachievers. Picked by many to be in the World Series, the Nats will go home after game 162. I won’t fall for the hype with this team again.
The Pitchers
Jered Eickhoff, Phillies
Eickhoff is just 1-3, but he has a nice 3.16 era. His whip is 1.14. Other than the record, he is at least the equal of Zimmerman in other areas. Eickhoff is 1-2 on the road with a 3.37 era and his era for his last 3 starts is 3.50. In his last start he went to Atlanta and shut out the Braves for 7 innings on 5 hits. In the game before that won he held the Cubs to just 3 hits and 1 run in 7 innings. So in his last 14 innings he has given up 8 hits and 1 run. Not too shabby. If you remove the run game where he got rocked in Boston for 4 runs in 6 innings, his overall era drops to 1.91. His era in night games is 1.91 and he is 1-2 in those 4 starts. LH are hitting a crisp .281 against Jered, but RH are hitting just .176.
Jordan Zimmerman, Nats
Zimmerman is 13-8 with a 3.49 era and a 1.20 whip. Zimmerman is 8-3 at home with a 2.50 era and he is 1-0 in his last 3 with a 4.50 era. In his last start he held Miami to 6 hits and 2 runs over 6 innings. In the start prior to that he was pounded by these same Phillies for 6 runs and 7 hits in 6 innings. Zimmerman has gone 5-0 with a 4.04 era in his last 7 games. Zim is 10-5 at night with a 3.06 era. Post All-Star break has him 5-3 with a 3.87 era. LH are hitting him for .289 and RH .236.
The Bullpens
Phillies – 3.98 on the road ; 32 saves and 14 blown saves
Nats – 3.21 at home ; 39 saves and 21 blown saves
I believe you can make the case that Eickhoff, in this short sample, has better overall numbers than Zimmerman. He’s shown great potential, for sure. Zimmerman is 6-7 versus the Phils in his career and the Nats are 7-8 against the Phils when Zimmerman has toed the rubber. The price on the Nats is absurdly high – especially for a team that may have packed it in already.
The Hitters
Phillies
The Phils only score 3.8 runs per game. They score even less on the road at 3.4. The go up to 3.7 against RHP. They have only averaged 2.0 runs per game in their last 7. Their pitching staff has allowed only 3.7 during that time. They score 3.8 at night and 3.6 in division.
Nats
The Nationals average 4.5 runs per game. At home they score the same. Against RHP they also average 4.5. In their last 7 games they have averaged 5.0 runs per game. At night they average 4.5 and in division they average 4.5.
Without doubt the Nats have the most potent offense. Will it show up today against Eickhoff? Have they already started cleaning their golf clubs? Nobody knows for sure, but this National team has something wrong with it – in the front office, in the clubhouse, or maybe with manager Matt Williams.
Odds and Ends
The Phils are 57-96 and the Nats are 78-74.
The Phils allow 5.1 runs per game and the Nats allow 4.0 runs per game.
The Phils have a MINUS 1.3 run differential and the Nats are PLUS 0.5.
The Phils are 24-54 on the road and the Nats are 44-33 at home.
The Phils are 5-16 in September and the Nats are 12-10.
The Phils are 24-43 against division and the Nats are 40-27.
The Phils are 36-67 at night and the Nats are 48-53.
The Phils are 42-77 against RHP and the Nats are 56-57.
The Phils are 31-64 after a loss and the Nats are 35-39 after a loss.
The Phils are 30-62 against teams with winning records.
The Nats are 67-51 against teams with losing records.
There is no doubt why the Nats are -244 favorites in here.
Coach’s Conclusion:
In the ultimate crunch time, when you are trying to save your season even though there is little chance, you either show up or you don’t. I’d say the Nats have failed to show up. They have just been swept by the Orioles. They scored 8 runs in the 3 games and lost 2 games by 1 run. That’s the sign of a team that’s packed it in – something many have accused them of doing all season. I wouldn’t dispute that for a second. I know I sound biased against the Nats and I am. It pains me to see a team with this talent fail to reach anywhere near their potential. I’ll take a kid like Eickhoff who will be pitching like his life depends upon it. The Phillies, as bad as they are, have assembled a decent group of young pitchers and Eickhoff is the best. Hopefully, in the off season, they will acquire some bats. Call me crazy (and I’ve been called much worse), but I’m taking the huge overlay here with the Phillies.
Brian Hay
Stanford vs. Oregon State
Play: Oregon State +14½
What a difference a week makes. Last week Stanford was a double digit underdog at Southern California, this week they are double digit road favorite at Oregon State. Stanford's strength is their defense and they just allowed 31 points and over 420 yards last week. This will be Stanford's third road game in just 21 days. Stanford only scored six points while losing to Northwestern in a game they were out-rushed 225-85. This is certainly a huge letdown spot for Stanford coming off the huge USC road win. Oregon State coasted last week at home against San Jose State and should be primed for their Pac-12 opener. Stanford is just 2-6 straight-up/3-5 ATS after beating USC and they’ve only cashed the ticket in four of their last dozen visits at Oregon State including 1-4 ATS as a favorite of five points or more. Easy call here.
Brian Hay
Stanford vs. Oregon State
Play: Oregon State +14½
What a difference a week makes. Last week Stanford was a double digit underdog at Southern California, this week they are double digit road favorite at Oregon State. Stanford's strength is their defense and they just allowed 31 points and over 420 yards last week. This will be Stanford's third road game in just 21 days. Stanford only scored six points while losing to Northwestern in a game they were out-rushed 225-85. This is certainly a huge letdown spot for Stanford coming off the huge USC road win. Oregon State coasted last week at home against San Jose State and should be primed for their Pac-12 opener. Stanford is just 2-6 straight-up/3-5 ATS after beating USC and they’ve only cashed the ticket in four of their last dozen visits at Oregon State including 1-4 ATS as a favorite of five points or more. Easy call here.
Brandon Lee
Boston Red Sox -105
Boston's Rich Hill has been one of the biggest surprises of September. After not making a start since July of 2009, Hill has been sensational in 2 starts with Boston in September. He's allowed 3 runs on 8 hits with an impressive 20 strikeouts (10 each start) in 2 outings. He's clearly got something going right now and I'll take my chances here with the Red Sox hosting the Orioles. Baltimore will send out Kevin Gausman, who is 0-5 with a 6.20 ERA and 1.466 WHIP over 8 road starts. Gausman is also just 1-8 in 9 starts this season with a money line of +125 to -125 and the Orioles are 1-9 in their last 10 road games after playing 3 straight interleague games.
Chip Chirimbes
Boise St at Virginia
Play: Virginia
Virginia who has had but one winning season in the past eight may have caught a break here because of a bad break of an ankle for Boise State quarterback Ryan Finley. The Cavaliers were able to hang two against Notre Dame two weeks ago but are still just 1-2 on the year. While the Broncos will go with one of two novice quarterbacks Virginia will counter with Junior Matt Johns who has passed for 790 yards and six TD's with three interceptions. Virginia has enough to win here.
Tony Stoffo
Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Under 7.5
The Angels have won five of their last seven games as they open a six-game homestand. LA sends out Garrett Richards, who allowed two runs and five hits in 8 2/3 innings while beating the Minnesota Twins in last. The Angel's right hander is is 4-4 with a 3.08 ERA in 17 career appearances, nine starts, against Seattle. The Mariners will counter with Vidal Nuno with a 1-4 record and a respectable 3.30 ERA. Nuno is 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA in four career appearances, two starts, against the Angels. Seattle slugger Nelson Cruz has slowed down with one homer and two RBIs over his last 10 games and traditionally struggles (4-for-22) against Garrett Richards.