Bob Balfe
Royals +105
Kansas City is so good at home and so good against right handed pitching. This team has such a big lead that they slacked off for a few weeks, but now at the end of the season have been picking things back up to get ready for the postseason. Sometimes having such a good year and being so far ahead can hurt you when it is time to face teams that have been in playoff mode for two months. The Royals should have no problem getting hot again. Take Kansas City.
Harry Bondi
BOISE STATE (-2) over Virginia
Another Free Game Winner on Cincinnati last night and tonight we will back the road favorite Boise State Broncos behind a new QB. Ryan Findley is out with an ankle injury for Boise and we expect sophomore Tommy Stuart and true freshman Brett Rypien, nephew of former Washington State & Washington Redskin great Mark Rypien to share the snaps. Both are highly touted and we do not expect much of a drop off from Findley. Stuart is a dual threat QB while Ripper is a classic drop-back like his uncle and was 8 of 9 for 126 yards in relief of Findley last week. Boise State's defense has been fantastic particularly against the run. In fact, Bronco's rush defense is ranked second in the nation allowing just 45 yards per game against the likes of BYU and Washington. Cavaliers have been unable to move the ball consistently on offense, especially on the ground so look for Boise to make Virginia a one dimensional aerial offense, which in turn makes them easy to read and leads to turnovers. Cavaliers also can't stand prosperity as they are 2-10 ATS their last 12 games following a striaght up win and after barely squeaking a win out against William & Mary last week, they struggle mightily with the Broncos tonight.
Vegas Butcher
Boston Red Sox -110 (1st 5 Innings Only)
It’s not often that you see a 35-year old pitcher come back to the majors and dominate but that’s exactly what Rich Hill is doing. In his 2 starts this year he’s logged 14 innings, allowed 3 runs, has a 55% GB-rate, and has 20 K’s to only 1 BB. Normally I wouldn’t pay much attention to it but he has done this @ TOR and @ TBR. Jays rank 1st and Rays rank 3rd against lefties respectively. Now he’ll take on the 26th ranked offense against left-handers and he’ll do it at home. If he can dominate TOR and TBB like this in back-to-back starts, I like his chances of doing it in the first 5 innings against the O’s, as most of their hitters haven’t seen Hill in a long time. By the way, if he had enough innings to qualify, his numbers so far would make him the #1 ranked starter in my database. I know the sample is tiny, but at least it tells you how well he’s pitched in those 2 outings.
Cleveland Indians -120
My #7 ranked starter Carrasco going up against #108 Volquez. Let’s compare what each pitcher has done against the lineup each will be facing so far this season:
Carrasco: 3 starts / 20 innings; 15 hits; 5 runs (2.3 ERA); 23 K : 6 BB
Volquez: 3 starts / 14 innings; 15 hits; 10 runs (6.4 ERA); 11 K : 14 BB
Clearly you can see there’s a large mismatch between the starters in this one. What else is interesting is that there’s a potential mismatch in the bullpens as well. Ove the last 30-days Cleveland’s pen ranks 3rd while KC’s is 25th. Remember, Holland has been shut-down till the playoffs and the rest of the guys aren’t pitching well right now. Indians should have an overall pitching advantage in this one and I like their chances of getting it done tonight.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Mets-Reds Over the total.
New York got some of their swagger back last night with 6 runs plated in their 6-4 win as New York and Cincy did indeed go Over the total.
Hard to argue the Mets 26-12-1 Over run their last 39 games, and it is also hard to argue the Reds 8-3 Over run their last 11 games played.
Noah Syndergaard is just 2-2 with an over 5 ERA in his last 7 starts, while Anthony DeSclafani just got touched up in his last start against Milwaukee.
New York needs to keep their offense banging as they head towards their first postseason in years, so look for them to get their licks in against DeSclafani, and also look for the slumping Syndergaard to give up a few runs of his own.
In the end, the Mets and Reds play Over the total in this Friday night meeting at Cincinnati.
2* N.Y. METS-CINCINNATI OVER
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Boise State at VIRGINIA (+2')
The SMART INTANGIBLE for my play today - Huge game for the Virginia Cavaliers here, as they welcome once-nationally ranked Boise State to Scott Staduim for a Friday Night Lights clash. For Virginia, which is 1-2, a win to get to .500 could turn things around in time for its ACC schedule. The Cavaliers are the only team in the country to play three nonconference games against opponents ranked in the preseason top 25. Boise State was No. 23 in the initial poll but fell out on the heels of a 35-24 loss to Brigham Young on Sept. 12. Virginia, which got its first win last week against William and Mary, opened the season with tough losses to UCLA and Notre Dame.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is Virginia quarterback Matt Johns, who ranks 32nd in the country in passing yards (790) and passing yards per game (263.3), and 29th in completions per game (21.3). The junior has completed 71 percent (20 for 28) of his third-down attempts, 10 of which have gone for first downs and two for touchdowns through three games.
In SUMMARY, why this is the SMART PLAY with this game - Virginia generally steps up for games like this, as it's on a 5-2 run in night home games, including its last one, on Nov. 22, 2014, when the Cavs knocked off Miami, 30-13. Add in the Broncos' short week and travel distance for this one might be a little taxing - not much - but will be something the Cavaliers can take advantage of tonight. This could come down to the end, and I want the home team on my side.
2* VIRGINIA
SPORTS WAGERS
VIRGINIA +106 over Boise State
The Broncos 2-1 start and strong pedigree over the past two decades has them wrongly billed as the road chalk here. It seems that every year Boise State wins 10 or 11 games while the Cavaliers have been fighting it for some time now. We can understand the market’s preference here but past histories do not dictate outcomes. The players on the respective teams will dictate the outcome here.
Boise State’s two wins have occurred against Washington and Idaho State. Washington may not win four games this year and to give you an idea of who Idaho State is, they played a team called Black Hills State in Week 1. When the Broncos played BYU in Week 2, they lost by 11. This is not the same Broncos team as years past. They did return some key starters but they lost their two most important ones in quarterback Grant Hedrick and tailback Jay Ajayi. That pair accounted for 89.1 % of the team’s yards and 92.4 percent of the offensive touchdowns. That’s incredible. The program also changed offensive coordinators again. We have a big problem with teams that schedule weak out of conference games and BSU will likely play the price here.
By contrast, Virginia played #13 UCLA in Week 1 followed by a game against #9 Notre Dame in Week 2. Against Notre Dame, as a 14-point dog, Virginia had a halftime lead and eventually lost by seven. The Cavs put up over 400 yards against that vaunted Irish defense and also put up 336 on the road against UCLA in Week 1. UVA defeated William & Mary last week, 35-29, which sure doesn’t add to its credibility but in the Cavs defense, that game was after UCLA and Notre Dame and before this one. The Cavs did what they had to. Virginia’s offense is vastly improved. They had Notre Dame by the throat before it slipped away late. The Cavs have played two ranked teams while the Broncos have played two cupcakes and a depleted BYU team at that time. BSU will now come in here and will try to operate with a broken offense and a quarterback crisis. We don’t like their chances of success.
Pass CFL
SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI +125 over N.Y. Mets
Noah Syndergaard has Cy Young potential. He’s dominated many lineups this season and he may even be the Mets first choice to start the opener in the playoffs. Dude can pitch. However, Syndergaard has been below average on the road and below average overall in his past seven starts. In 11 starts away from Citi Field, Syndergaard has been tagged for 62 hits and 29 earned runs in 58 innings for an oppBA of .267 and an ERA of 4.47. His lone win in 11 road starts occurred in Atlanta against the Braves. Syndergaard has allowed three runs or more in five of his past seven starts. The only two teams that didn’t get to him over that span were the Phillies and Braves. He’s also been taken yard 11 times over his past eight starts and this is a park that gives up jacks in droves.
Meanwhile, Anthony DeSclafani gets a fraction of the recognition that Syndergaard gets. DeSclafani has been one of the game's most skilled starting pitchers in the second half with 8.4 K’s/9, 1.6 BB’s/9 and the third best xERA (2.60) in all of baseball. His outstanding command in the 2H has come with full support of his command sub-indicators: 11% swing and miss rate - 65% first pitch strike rate. DeSclafani has a BB/K split of 4/32 over his last 30 frames. He also has a 14% swing and miss rate over that span. In other words, he’s dealing it right now as good as any pitcher in baseball but not many have noticed. The Mets bats have cooled off and so have they with just three wins in their past nine games. That includes their most recent series against Atlanta in New York in which they split four games. Prior to that, Atlanta had 14 wins in its last 55 games. Definite overlay here.
COLORADO (5 innings) +132
The Rockies are a mess. They were just swept at home in a four-game set by the beatable Pirates to run their losing streak at Coors to five games. Colorado’s pitching staff has been tagged for 43 runs over those five losses. The Rockies find themselves in a scramble for able arms. From Yohan Flande to Christian Bergman to Chad Bettis to Chris Rusin to a beat up and putrid bullpen, Colorado is the place pitchers go to die out. The only good arm available to them right now belongs to today’s starter, David Hale. Take out the Rockies pen and it sets up this five-inning play. Hale has made just 10 starts this year. His 6.32 ERA is not going to attract much attention whatsoever. Thing is, when you’ve only thrown 68 innings, some inevitable bad starts at this park will wreak havoc on your surface stats. In those 68 frames, Hale has a BB/K split of 16/64. His strong command is supported by an 11% swing and miss rate and 63% first-pitch strike rate. Hale has been working out of the pen for the past month because the Rockies needed arms there but in his last start against the Mets, he struck out nine batters in six innings while allowing just six hits. That start was at Coors. David Hale gives Colorado its best chance to win a game.
Michael Bolsinger has fallen on hard times with only two quality starts in his last 10 games. Since returning from AAA-Oklahoma City on September 4, Bolsinger is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in three starts. His skills have been horrible in September with a 5.82 xERA and a BB/K split of 9/11 in 13 frames. Bolsinger is having nothing but problems getting people out at Chavez Ravine and Petco Park. Now he brings his 87 mph fastball and 53% first–pitch strike rate to Coors Field. The Rockies are tough for any pitcher at Coors Field as they lead MLB in both home batting (.300) and OPS (.835). If we rip this ticket up so be it but it’s without question one of the biggest overlays on the board over the past week.
Rob Vinciletti
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -120
The Diamondbacks should have an easier time here tonight after losing to Kershaw and the Dodgers yesterday. Arizona will San Diego reliever C. Kelly who is making his first start. San Diego has lost 11 of 14 as a home dog in this range and has not had much success against Arizona starter Ruby Delarosa who is 4-0 with a 1.38 era against them. Road favorites off a road dog loss, that are taking on a team off a home dog win like the Padres are 15-3. Look for Arizona to take the opener tonight.
Bruce Marshall
San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics
All of the hype for this weekend Bay Bridge Series at the Coliseum is the feel-good nostalgia matchup of the season on Saturday featuring the Giants' Tim Hudson and the A's Barry Zito, part of the "Big 3" Oakland rotation with Mark Mulder in the 2000-2005 span a decade -plus ago. For Friday, however, the Giants limp in having effectively blown their chance to corral the Dodgers in the NL West. San Francisco has lost in three of Friday starter Mike Leake's last four starts. Meanwhile, Oakland starter Sonny Gray has cooled in recent starts but still has a 2.81 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home this season.
OC Dooley
Brewers / Cardinals Under 7
It was exactly a week ago on a Friday when Milwaukee took the field riding an amazing 21-4 “over” the total run which was finally snapped. Tonight the Brewers will be WITHOUT slugger Ryan Braun who has sat out all week with nagging back problems that will eventually require surgery to repair. In other LINEUP news St. Louis secondbaseman Kolton Wong (rest) is NOT starting and will be replaced by relative unknown Greg Garcia. On the mound for St. Louis tonight is Carlos Martinez who according to his manager has a CHALLENGE in front of him as the youngster has actually struggled recently when pitching in front of the HOME fans (6.11 earned run average last five assignments at Busch Stadium). The good news is that Martinez has owned Milwaukee in a pair of chances this season posting a SUB-ONE ERA along the way. On the mound for the Brewers is youngster Ariel Pena who in limited major league starts has held the opposition to a combined .197 average while racking up 16 different STRIKEOUT victims in 18 innings of work. Getting back to St. Louis they are 14-5 UNDER/HOME long term versus opposition with a “losing” overall record