Jeff Benton
Boston -130 at NY YANKEES
For Friday, I’ll lay the chalk with Jon Lester and the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium.
Obviously, New York has had the upper-hand in this rivalry this summer. Ever since losing the first seven meetings this season, the Yankees have taken six of the last seven, including a four-game home sweep last month. However, tonight’s pitching matchup favors Boston in a big way. The Sox are sending lefty Jon Lester to the mound, and all you need to know about him is this: Boston is 7-0 in his seven starts since mid-August; Lester has a 2.09 ERA since the beginning of August, including a 1.29 ERA in his last three starts; and he’s dominated New York in six starts against them since the start of 2008 (3-0, 1.90 ERA).
On the other hand, Yankees right-hander Joba Chamberlain is nothing more than a middle reliever disguised as a starter .That’s because for the last six weeks or so, New York has been employing the Joba Rules, as they haven’t let him go beyond four innings in any of his last six starts, and he hasn’t thrown more than 96 pitches in his last seven outings (and the big man is 0-4 during this stretch). Check out Chamberlain’s pitch counts his last five times he’s gone to the mound: 35, 59, 55, 67 and 69. His numbers since the start of August: one win, four losses, 33 earned runs allowed in 36 innings pitched (8.25 ERA).
Chamberlain will once again be on a pitch count tonight, and with two more games left in this series, we’re not going to see New York’s better arms follow him to the mound. Given Lester’s dominance (both lately and over the last two years against the Yankees) and Chamberlain’s struggles, this is a throwaway game for New York. Back the road team.
3♦ BOSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
Minnesota -110 at KANSAS CITY
Our FREE play run stands at 37-23-4 the last 64 days!
For Friday night, we will take Minnesota in a near pick situation against Kansas City.
The Royals have been cooled off a little, losing the last 2 nights to the Boston Red Sox, and now they must take on a Minny team that has won 9 of 10, including their last 3.
No doubt RobinsonTejeda has been an eye-opener since coming back to the major leagues, as he is a perfect 3-0 in 4 return starts with an ERA under 1, but you have to believe that that kind of run just can't continue this time out.
Carl Pavano just beat Kansas City at Kauffman Stadium on August 23rd, working 7 innings of 2 run ball, and the Twins are a solid 5-1 versus the Royals this year in KC.
Minny has also won 12 of the last 15 overall meetings in Kansas City!
Have to go with Minnesota in a "must win" situation.
Play on the Twins.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Tom Freese
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Minnesota 10-1 their last 11 road games vs. righty starters and they are 7-0 their last 7 games vs. losing teams. The Twins are 28-11 on Friday and they are 4-1 in the last 5 road starts made by Carl Pavano. Kansas City is 18-38 their last 56 home games and they are 13-41 their last 54 Friday games. The Royals are 10-27 at home vs. a team with a losing road record and they are 8-20 their last 28 home games vs. the Twins. PLAY ON MINNESOTA -
Joseph D'Amico
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Atlanta Braves
As of today, Atlanta is just 3 1/2 games back in the Wild Card. With N.L. W.C. leading Colorado Rockie's starting a homestand with one of the National League's best teams, the St. Louis Cardinal's, this is an ideal time for the Brave's to step into the drivers seat. Atlanta has won 8 of their last 10 games including 3 straight. They start Javier Vazquez who is 9-2 on the road this season. Over his last 3 starts, the right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA. He faces a Washington team that owns the worst record in baseball. The Brave's are 11-2 their last 13 on grass, 11-2 their last 13 overall, and 7-1 in Vazquez's last 8 road starts. The National's are 4-12 their last 16 at home and 9-25 their last 34 on grass. Atlanata gets the win.
Randal the Handle
KANSAS CITY –1.02 over Minnesota (1st 5 innings)
The Twinkies are hot with nine win in its past 10 games but so are the pesky Royals with 12 wins in its last 17 games. The difference here is that the Royals Robinson Tejada has been just sick since being inserted into the starting rotation. In four straight starts against the Tigers twice, the Angels and the White Sox covering 22.1 frames, Tejada has allowing nine hits and two earned runs for an ERA of 0.81. He’s also struck out 24 batters over that same stretch. In short, he’s been the major’s best pitcher over a four-start period. Meanwhile, Carl Pavano has had very little success against the Royals. He’s already faced KC five times this season so they know him well. In those five starts he’s 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA after allowing 38 hits and 23 runs in 30 innings of work. The Royals have collectively hit .310 off Pavano and that’s mostly when they were cold. Now the Royals are very warm and have a huge edge on the hill, thus the five-inning wager. Play: Kansas City in the first five innings –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Mr. Vegas Wins
Missouri at Nevada
I gave out a free winner last week with Ole Miss/South Carolina under, so we will come back with another total tonight. I like this wide open offense of Missouri (3-0) under new 6-5 QB sophomore Blaine Gabbert (5 TDs, 0 picks). Mizzou is 14-8 over the total the last 2+ years and off to a fine start. Nevada (0-2 SU/ATS) has had a tough schedule, this is their first home game, and the offense is much better than it has looked. Of course, their defense, like last year, still is not very good (they allowed 69 to Missouri last season). Play Missouri/Nevada Over the total.
Yankee Capper
Boston Red Sox -120
Atlanta Braves -165
Florida Marlins -175
LA Dodgers -185
Minnesota Twins -110
VEGAS EXPERTS
Missouri at Nevada
When these teams met last year, the Tigers scored on each of their first 10 possessions on their way to 651 total yards and a 69-17 win. Nevada has allowed 35 points in each of their first two games. Since 1992, the Wolfpack are 33-10 Over when they allow 28 or more points, a fate that probably awaits them Friday night. The Nevada offense also should improve now that they're back home as they scored more than 40 points in four of six home games in '08.
Play on: Over
Rocketman
Missouri vs. Nevada
Play: Over 61.5
These two teams lit it up last year as Missouri blew Nevada away 69-17 which is 86 total points. I think the game will be a little closer this year but these two should be able to put up a ton of points again. This is Nevada's first home game of the season and they will want to shine and put up a lot of points. Missouri is 5-1 OVER as a road favorite the past 3 years. Missouri is 7-1 OVER on the road the past 3 years. Over is 4-0 in Wolf Pack last 4 games on artificial turf. Over is 4-1 in Wolf Pack last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. We'll recommend a small play on OVER THE TOTAL tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -145
The Cards are worth a 1 Unit wager at this price tonight with ace Chris Carpenter on the hill. Carpenter is 16-4 with a 2.34 ERA on the season, including 8-2 on the road with an ERA of 2.21 and a WHIP of only 0.870. This could be his last chance to show the Cy Young voters that he should be their guy. I like his chances in shutting down the Rockies as he has owned them in his career to the tune of 3-0 (4-0 against the money line) with an ERA of 0.62. Cook is struggling for Colorado, going 0-3 with an ERA of 12.20 over his last3 starts. Plus, he is just 1-4 (1-6 against the money line) with an ERA of 5.56 in his career against the Cards. Advantage St. Louis.
EZWINNERS
Missouri Tigers @ Nevada Wolfpack
Play: Missouri Tigers -7
The Nevada Wolfpack has really struggled to start this season with road losses to Notre Dame and Colorado State. The Nevada defense was going to be a question mark, but nobody expected the offense that averaged 37 points per game to struggle as much as they have this season. The Pistol Offense has shot blanks for the Wolfpack this season and I don't expect them to be much better this week against Missouri. The Tigers have been rolling so far this season and Nevada has not done well in the past when stepping up in competiton. The Missouri offense should roll here. Lay the points.
JrTips
Rays at Rangers
Texas is seven games back of first-place Los Angeles and have a chance to make up significant ground with four games in Anaheim beginning Monday, but that series could be meaningless if they don't get things turned around starting tonight. The Rangers are coming off Thursday's 12-3 loss to Oakland, their eighth defeat in 11 games.The offense has only managed 10 runs in their last eight losses. In addition to getting the offense turned around, the Rangers also need rookie Derek Holland (7-12, 6.17 ERA) to break out of his funk.The left-hander has recorded a 12.38 ERA in losing his last five starts after posting a 1.29 ERA in winning his previous three. He was tagged for six runs and eight hits, three homers in Sunday's 10-5 loss to the Angels which was the fourth time during the skid he's allowed at least six runs.Tampa Bay has 19 fewer wins than a year ago and were eliminated from playoff contention Tuesday. Although this season has been a disappointment, the Rays are trying to end it in a positive fashion.They're 6-3 since an 11-game losing streak and need to win four of their final 10 to record a second straight winning season. James Shields (10-11, 4.09) takes the ball for Tampa Bay in the opener of this three-game series as Shields has recorded a 5.63 ERA in his last five starts but has gone 3-1 thanks to a 9.00 run support average.Shields allowed four runs and nine hits in six innings Friday to beat Toronto 11-4 and he is 2-0 with a 4.29 ERA in three outings versus Texas. Texas is pressing righ now and their roolike starting pitcher is waering dow at the end of the season giving up over 12 runs in his last 5 starts. This losse Tampa Bay team is having fun and will knock Holland out by the 4th inning.Great pirce on this one.
TAKE TAMPA BAY-115
Lenny Del Genio
CLE / BAL Over 10
On paper, this could be the worst Major League Baseball game of the season. The Indians have lost 11 straight games and are just 3-19 in the month of September. The Orioles have lost seven straight games and are just 6-14 in September. Expect a lot of folks to be "dressed as green seats" at Progressive Field tonight. However, the game could be entertaining, at least for those who like to see plenty of runs! Baltimore starter Hernandez has a 0-3 team start record in his last three starts with a 10.80 ERA. Cleveland starter Carmona has a 13.88 ERA and a 0-3 TSR his last three starts. Carmona has also gone Over in all seven starts vs. the AL East this season. Take Over.