Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 26

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox look to bounce back from last night's 6-3 loss to Kansas City as they face a Royals team that is 2-7 in its last 9 games following a win. Chicago is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Whtie Sox (+125). Dunkel Pick: Texas (+125)

Game 951-952: Miami at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Cosart) 14.521; Washington (Fister) 17.113
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-210); Under

Game 953-954: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Heaney) 15.109; Washington (Hill) 14.281
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+145); Over

Game 955-956: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Santana) 14.512; Philadelphia (Williams) 16.113
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105); Under

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Worley) 15.766; Cincinnati (Leake) 14.439
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-140); Over

Game 959-960: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jokisch) 15.319; Milwaukee (Nelson) 14.442
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 961-962: St. Louis at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 15.416; Arizona (Cahill) 13.809
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-155); Under

Game 963-964: Colorado at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Lyles) 15.543; LA Dodgers (Hernandez) 16.939
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Over

Game 965-966: San Diego at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 16.312; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.421
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+130); Under

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 14.302; Cleveland (Kluber) 16.779
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-165); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-165); Over

Game 969-970: Baltimore at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.116; Toronto (Hutchison) 14.576
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-105); Under

Game 971-972: Minnesota at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Swarzak) 15.109; Detroit (Porcello) 14.212
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-210); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+180); Over

Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Capuano) 15.879; Boston (Wright) 14.492
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-105); Under

Game 975-976: Oakland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Kazmir) 14.673; Texas (Tepesch) 16.833
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+150); Under

Game 977-978: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 14.982; White Sox (Noesi) 15.887
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125); Over

Game 979-980: LA Angels at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.302; Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.886
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 981-982: Houston at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 14.302; NY Mets (Niese) 16.779
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-160); Over

Sam Martin

Fresno St. at New Mexico
Prediction: Over

Unfair to judge Fresno State on their stats and 1-3 record as they have faced a brutal schedule that includes road games at USC and Utah as well as a home game vs. Nebraska. Bulldogs were blown out in all three games, but had no problem as they were finally in the role of the favorite last week vs. S Utah - beating them by 40 points and racking up nearly 700 yards of total offense. While we have a slight lean towards taking Fresno State here, we like the Over even more.

Having success in the running game proved to be the difference for the Bulldogs, as the 389 rushing yards last week was more than the first three weeks combined. And here they face a New Mexico defense that has already allowed 330+ rushing yards twice in three games. That being said, we don't like Fresno's rush defense very much either, and New Mexico is a rush-heavy offense that has racked up 410, 207, and 432 yards thus far. Both running games dominate - especially in the second half against tired defenses - and this game sails over the posted total!

EZWINNERS

Middle Tennessee/Old Dominion Over 67.5

I expect this to be a good old fashioned shoot out. Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion both are loaded with offensive weapons. ODU quarterback Taylor Heinicke can put points on the board quickly with multiple receiving threats and they lit up the defending Conference USA champion Rice Owls last week. Middle Tennessee State also has a weapon under center in quarterback Austin Grammar. Grammar is completing over 68% of his passes and is also a threat to run. The defensive side of the ball is where there is a lot left to be desired for both teams. Middle Tennessee is allowing 31.3 points per game and that includes factoring in a 61-7 win against Savannah State. Against the big boys the Blue Raiders are allowing just under 40 points per game. Old Dominion is not much better at just under 30 points per game allowed. The Monarch defense did hold Eastern Michigan to just three points, but the Eagles have one of the worst offenses in college football as they average just 12 points per game. On the flip side, ODU's defense allowed Hampton to put up 28 points on them. I'm not much of a totals player, but I'm playing the OVER big in this one.

Jim Feist

Houston Astros at New York Mets
Pick: Houston Astros

The Mets are favored but have a losing home record. The Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 interleague home games, 2-6 in Jon Niese's last 8 starts during game 1 of a series. Houston is in town with a lot of hungry young players looking for roster spots for 2015. Starter Brad Peacock has allowed 2, 0, 2, 1 and 1 earned runs his last five starts. The Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter, so grab the hungry dog.

Jesse Schule

Kansas City vs. Chi. White Sox
Pick: Kansas City

The Royals need another win here in Chicago on Friday to clinch a Wild Card spot. This team appears to be destined to make the post-season, and it comes in having won four of it's last five overall. The White Sox will try to play the role of spoiler, but they also need to overcome a mismatch in starting pitching.

Jeremy Guthrie will toe the rubber for the Royals, and the veteran has been hot. Guthrie (12-11, 4.28 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits over 5 1/3 innings in a home win over the Tigers his last time out. Prior to that he went eight strong innings allowing a single run on three hits in a win over Boston. He's 2-1 with a 3.70 ERA in four starts versus Chicago so far this season.

The White Sox hand the ball to Hector Noesi, who at this point in his career struggles to hold a spot in a major league rotation. Noesi (8-11, 4.76 ERA) is coming off back to back losses, one of those coming at home where he allowed five runs on eight hits to the Twins. He's only faced the Royals once this year, and it wasn't pretty. He surrendered five runs on eight hits over just 3 2/3 innings in a home loss.

Mike Moustakas hasn't had a great season, but he's 3-for-3 lifetime versus Noesi.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Joe D'Amico

Fresno State at New Mexico
Play Fresno St

FSU's three losses came against USC, Utah, and Nebraska with the Bulldog's showing game in each defeat. Now they face a very leaky defense allowing 41.3 PPG. QB, Brian Burrell and RB, Marteze Waller will bulldoze the inferior Lobos "D". The only bright spot for New Mexico is RB, Cole Gautsche. The ball-carrier can't do it all himself here. FSU will key on him and force mistakes by QB, Lamar Jordan. Fresno State has won and covered the L4 in this series by an average of 20.8 PPG.

Joe D'Amico's Featured Package

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Fresno State -4.5 over NEW MEXICO: The Bulldogs were expected to contend for the MWC this year, but they have not played that was so far as they were blownout in their three losses so far this year. The losses they had included road games vs USC and Utah plus a home game vs Nebraska, so you can see why they were blown out. Now they step way down in competition and I feel they will have a very good showing in this one, just like they did vs Southern Utah last week. New Mexico does have a powerful ground attack but I feel the Bulldogs can slow them down enough to allow their offense to put up enough points vs this very bad Lobos defense to get the cover here. Fresno State is 4-0 ATS the last 4 in this series and I feel that trend will continue here.

Ben Burns

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox -106

One couldn't fault the Yankees here for "taking the day off." Last night's emotional sendoff for Derek Jeter in the Bronx won't be soon forgotten, but the problem for the team is they have to play a game today. I think the focus may not be there.

The Red Sox won yesterday too; 11-1 over the Rays. That game was here in Fenway, so there's no travel or anything to worry about on their end. As much respect as the Boston players have for Jeter, they aren't going to lay down for their rival by any means. Rather, I'd expect them to want to beat the Yankees. (Note: Jeter has said he might not even suit up Friday).

The Yankees season has flown in the face of analytics. They've been outscored by 30 runs yet somehow are five games over .500.

The hangover from last night's game is the key here, but also Yankees' starter Chris Capuano isn't likely to pitch well here. In 11 appearances in pinstripes, he is 1-3 with a 4.73 ERA. That includes a 6.75 ERA in two games vs. Boston.

The Red Sox have won four of six coming into this series. Their offense has done a nice job carrying the load, scoring 22 runs the last two games on 26 hits.

I just can't see the Yanks being able to come close to matching last night's emotion.

Ben Burns's Featured Package

Jimmy Boyd

Pittsburgh Pirates -140

The Pirates secured a spot in the postseason yesterday, but there's no time for celebration. Pittsburgh is just 1-game back of St Louis for the NL Central title and only a game ahead of the Giants for the rights to host the Wild Card game if that's where they end up. I look for the Pirates to maintain their focus and continue on their incredible stretch run with a win over division rival Cincinnati tonight.

Pittsburgh will send out Vance Worley, who has quietly been one of the more unappreciated starters. Worley has a 2.81 ERA and 1.182 WHIP over 16 starts and comes in with a red-hot 2.55 ERA and 1.075 WHIP over his last 3 outings. I'll take my chances on Pittsburgh, as they go up against the struggling Mike Leake, who has a 5.82 ERA and 1.588 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Over his last 17 innings of work, Leake has allowed 11 runs on 22 hits with 5 walks. Pittsburgh's offense just exploded for 10 runs on 16 hits last night and I look for that confidence at the plate to carry over.

The Pirates are 21-9 in their last 30 games after allowing 1 run or less in their last game, 9-1 in Worley's last 10 road starts against a poor power team that's averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game, 10-2 in their last 12 versus a right-handed starter and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. These trends combine to form a 79% (46-12) system in favor of the Pirates.

LT Profits

St. Louis vs Arizona
Pick: Arizona +151

The St. Louis Cardinals are footsteps after appearing to be on their way to an NL Central title last week. They lost three of their last four games to the lowly Cubs and Reds and their lead over Pittsburgh has shrunk to one game. They could again be vulnerable as decided road favorite here vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona starter Trevor Cahill has been much better over the second half of this season. Yes he is still 3-12, but he has still allowed thee earned runs or less in nine of his 12 starts since re-entering the rotation on July 18th. The Cardinals’ Michael Wacha is loads of ability but has still not been himself since recently coming back from a nearly three-month stint on the DL with shoulder issues, posting a 6.17 ERA in his three return starts. The Cardinals are 1-7 in Wacha’s last eight starts as a road favorite.

William Holloway

Pirates -137

The Pirates have a lot to play for while going for their first division title since 1992. Sending Vance Worley to the mound (3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last four starts), will help their chances. While opposing pitcher Mike Leake is 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA over his last 4.

Denver Money

New Mexico +5

If you wait you may be able to get a better number but I grabbed this line already. New Mexico has comes to play the next game after playing against New Mexico State where they have gone 7-1 ATS after playing the LOBOS. Fresno St has gone 4-7-1 in conference openers in recent history and have not performed as well as road dogs either. I will gladly take the home dog in this spot and cash us a winner on Friday.

Tony Stoffo

Mid-Tenn. St. at Old Dominion
Play: Old Dominion -3

Last week I told my private clients that this Monarchs team would have no problem fitting into this USA conference and they went down to Rice and beat the Owls start-up scoring 45 points while gaining 530 yards - Quarterback Taylor Heinicke had a monster day throwing for 430 yards and 5 touchdowns - I definitely look for more of the same here against this Blue Raiders squad that ranks 104th in the nation in total yards allowed and 102nd in points allowed.

Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Blue Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Monarchs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.

SPORTS WAGERS

BOSTON -106 over N.Y. Yankees

For the New York Yankees, its season ended last night when thousands of media and fans gathered at Yankees stadium to wish Derek Jeter farewell. It was a storybook finish to a great career when Jeter hit a walk-off single to send the fans into a frenzied state. World Series winners have had less of a celebration after the final out of winning it. It was a night to remember for New York and it was almost as if Orioles manager Buck Showalter was in on it, instructing his pitcher to give Jeter something juicy to hit. In any event, the Yankees will now show up in Boston in body only. They are an old and fading team anyway and asking them to perform here is like asking a team to play an exhibition game the day after winning a championship.

We could give you more information on today’s starter’s Steven Wright and Chris Capuano but it really isn’t relevant, although we will tell you that Wright is a knuckleballer with great control and Capuano is a stiff that has been bouncing around the bullpen and rotation for five different teams over the past six years. The Red Sox have scored 11 runs in back-to-back games and could easily put up another crooked number here against what should be a disinterested Yankees squad.

TEXAS +158 over Oakland

The pressure increases for the A’s here, as they woke up this morning out of playoff spot for the first time all season. Each player on this Oakland team is feeling the heat every time he steps to the plate and it’s not getting better. The A’s continue to see golf balls at the dish. They scored one measly run at this hitter’s park on Colby Lewis last night, despite Lewis walking five batters. The A’s have scored two runs or less in 12 of their past 26 games and keep losing at a pace that is almost incomprehensible. The fact that Oakland is a big favorite here is bordering on ridiculous.

Nick Tepesch and Scott Kazmir hooked up against one another back in Oakland on September 16th and the Rangers won that game 6-3. That was the weekend they swept the A’s in Oakland. Texas has now defeated Oakland four straight and with Kazmir limping to the finish line (7.11 ERA over his last five starts) in much the same manner the team he pitches for, we’ll gladly step in and accept this generous offer.