SPORTS WAGERS
Middle Tennessee State +3 over OLD DOMINION
After a thrilling victory over Rice, the Monarchs of Old Dominion will host the 2-1 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders in what is shaping up to be a pivotal Conference USA divisional contest. Both teams have been enigmatic throughout the course of the season, a combined 6-2 against the spread with results being fostered in the most incredulous of fashions. Old Dominion most notably is riding high after defeating Rice on the road as a 6½-point underdog. Now the shoe is on the other foot and ODU goes from being a 6½-point pooch to a three point favorite. The Monarchs have already failed to cover at home against a lowly Eastern Michigan team and it would come as no surprise if a similar fate awaits them here. ODU’s win last week was an emotional one that took a physical and mental toll after they escaped that thrilling victory against Rice by holding on for a three-point win.
Middle Tennessee State is 0-2 on the road this year but managed to cover a +13½ spread in their opener against Minnesota in Minneapolis. MTSU's stock would rise when they defeated a powerful Western Kentucky team as a one point favorite and then their stock would plummet at the hands of a Memphis team that outright pummeled them 36-17. That loss to Memphis was MTSU’s letdown game. Middle Tennessee State may prove to have a lot of upside given the hype and public appeal Old Dominion has suddenly received but this is an entirely different animal now. The Monarchs are rarely featured in a nationally televised game and now the shift in dynamics does not add to their appeal. We’re calling the upset but will take the points.
Pass CFL
Steve Janus
San Francisco Giants -133
The Giants secured a spot in the postseason with Milwaukee's loss yesterday. While they have no shot at winning the NL West, there's still plenty to play for over these final 3 games. San Francisco is just 1-game back of Pittsburgh for the top Wild Card spot, which determines who host the play-in game. Knowing how dominant the Pirates have been at home this season, there's no question the Giants are going to be extremely motivated to surpass them in the standings.
Hard to not like there chances given tonight's pitching matchup. San Francisco will send out Ryan Vogelsong, who has an impressive 2.76 ERA and 1.046 WHIP over 15 home starts. He will be opposed by Ian Kennedy, who hasn't been spectacular away from home and in his two starts vs the Giants this season he's allowed 6 runs on 14 hits over 13 innings of work. Not to mention the Padres are an awful road team, as they are just 28-50 on the season.
Key Trends - Padres are 1-13 in their last 14 road games when they come in having won at least 6 of their last 8 games, while Vogelsong is 9-1 in his last 10 starts when he starts on a Friday.
System - Favorites with a money line of -110 or higher after allowing 8 runs or more in 2 straight games against an opponent off a loss by 2 runs or less are 108-36 (75%) against the money line since 1997.
Will Rogers
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Over 8
The St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three game set to finish off the regular season. Previous meetings haven't been particularly high scoring, but today we have a low number and two struggling pitchers on the hill.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Cardinals will hand the ball to Michael Wacha (5-6, 3.18 ERA) who surrendered six runs on six hits over only four innings his last road start. The 23 year old right-hander has struggled away from home all seasong long, as he's still win-less and showing a 4.05 ERA over nine starts. The D-backs will counter with Trevor Cahill and he's been torched in his last two outings, conceding nine runs on 15 hits with two homers over just nine innings. He's 1-6 with a 6.84 ERA over 14 outings in Arizona this year.
2. Trends - Only one of Cahill's last seven starts at home have gone under, and six of his last seven coming in as a dog have gone over.
3. X-factor - Matt Holliday's owned Cahill in previous encounters going 4-for-10 with three homers and three walks.
Nick Parsons
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -154
The St. Louis Cardinals will be trying to close out the divisional title against the worst team in baseball. The Cardinals were 3 1/2 up on Pittsburgh on Saturday, but have dropped three of four. The Cardinals can guarantee themselves a second straight division title with a sweep of Arizona.
Michael Wacha will try and get the Cardinals a step closer. He is five and six with a 3.18 ERA on the year. He has gone 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA in three starts since returning from a shoulder injury. In his last outing he gave up two runs and six hits over 4 2/3 innings.
The Diamondbacks own the worst record in the majors. The Diamondbacks have dropped eight of nine while scoring 23 runs in the losses. Arizona starter, Trevor Cahill, is a dismal 3-12 with a 5.55 ERA .He has gone 0-4 with a 9.41 ERA in his last five starts. Cahill is 1-5 with a 6.90 ERA in nine home starts.
St. Louis needs this game and should get it against Cahill. Cahill has been horrendous this year and that should continue today. I look for the Cardinals to break out of their slump and put some runs on the board.
Bob Balfe
Red Sox -120
How can the Yankees match the emotions and the drama of last night's Jeter send off? The circus is over and the season has one more series before the players are all golfing next week. The Red Sox will be facing a familiar pitcher who was with them earlier in the year until his trade to New York. Jeter most likely sits this one out.
Dr Bob
OLD DOMINION (-2½) 35 Middle Tennessee State 34
Old Dominion hasn’t been as good offensively as I had projected them and star quarterback Taylor Heinicke has worse compensated passing numbers than he did last season (0.3 yards per pass play better than average) or as a sophomore in 2012 (average compensated yppp numbers). So far Heinicke has averaged just 6.6 yards per pass play while facing teams that would combine to lalow 7.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Heinicke showed his old form in last week’s game against Rice with 415 pass yards at 9.2 yppp, although Rice would allow 8.3 yppp on the road to an average quarterback, and Heinicke has another bad pass defense to pump up his stats against this week (MTS is 1.3 yppp worse than average). While Heinicke’s numbers are down the rushing attack has been significantly better this season, averaging 186 yards at 6.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.6 yprp to an average team. Middle Tennessee is a bit worse than average defending the run so the Monarchs’ offense should work on all levels tonight and my model projects 507 yards at 6.4 yards per play for ODU’s attack.
Middle Tennessee is also likely to score a good number of points, as the Raiders’ slightly worse than average offense (438 yards at 5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) is up against a sub-par Old Dominion defense that’s allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would average only 5.2 yppl against an average team. Middle Tennessee may have exceptional efficiency (the math projects 5.7 yppl) but they’ll run a lot of plays and the Raiders should have an edge in field position due to much better special teams units. Overall the math favors Old Dominion by 1 point with a total of 68½ points so there isn’t much value in this game with either the side or the total.
Fresno State (-4½) 37 NEW MEXICO 33
Fresno’s weakness is defending the pass, as the Bulldogs have been exploited through the air for 319 yards at 10.0 yards per pass play in 4 games against teams that would average 6.7 yppp against an average defense. However, that weakness is not going to be taken advantage of by a New Mexico option attack that only throws the ball 12 or 13 times per game. Fresno has been better than average defending the run but New Mexico has quarterback Cole Gautsche a bit healthier this week and Gautsche really makes the Lobos’ option special when he’s in the game. New Mexico is still projected to gain 440 yards at 6.3 yards per play even though they’re not going to take full advantage of Fresno’s horrible pass defense.
Fresno’s attack should also have an easy time moving the ball against a horrible Lobos’ defense that’s allowed 41 points on 523 yard at 7.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Fresno’s offense is a bit worse than average but the Bulldogs did more the ball well last week against a horrible Southern Utah defense and should do the same again tonight. Overall the math favors Fresno State by 4 points with a total of 70 points so there isn’t any value to be had. There are plenty of good plays for Saturday so I recommend looking for something else to invest in.
Harry Bondi
NEW MEXICO (+5) over Fresno State
No team has fallen farther this year than Fresno State. A bowl team last year, the bulldogs have been blown out in their 3 games against FBS teams allowing 52, 59 and 55 point s Nebraska, USC and Utah. New Mexico is not in the class of any of those teams but the Lobos triple option rushing attack is averaging 330 yards per game and requires great defensive discipline to shutdown, something Fresno’s sieve like defense does not have. Let’s back the home dog to get the money tonight.
OC Dooley
Yankees / Red Sox Under 8.5
This is the first time in recent memory that baseball’s biggest rivalry is NOT being showcased on National TV which tells you how disappointing both sides have been this campaign. For those who took the time to read this analysis you are aware that the Yankees did get national focus last night in Derek Jeter’s home finale which just happened to go above the closing total in a 6-5 final verdict where the “captain” knocked in the game winning run in the bottom of the ninth. Jeter has always had the flair for dramatics so last night’s heroic effort came as no personal shock but Thursday officially maked his final appearance as a starting shortstop. In a how of class Jeter said in postgame that he will play a limited role this weekend in respectto this storied rivalry but odds are he will NOT appear on Friday which is so close to last night’s dramatics. Thursday actually marked the first time that Jeter took the field at Yankee Stadium with his team already eliminated from postseason contention. This year New York has produced just 617 combined runs which is the LOWEST figure that this franchise has seen since way back in the 1990 campaign. The Yankees are 10-2 UNDER/ROAD this season after five consecutive games being held to “single digit” hits each time. Also for the entire campaign when off consecutive victories Boston has gone a resounding 14-4 UNDER/HOME