Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 27

Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Middle Tennessee State +22FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Blue Raiders had to go to overtime to knock off Florida Atlantic last week, as the Owls scored a touchdown with just 3 seconds remaining in regulation. Middle Tennessee State played at North Carolina earlier the year and were competitive in a 40-20 loss to the Tar Heels. After being out gained by just 110 yards in that contest and an overtime road win last week, the Blue Raiders should be ready for a rare trip out west to face the Cougars. Keep in mind that MTSU was 5-2 ATS on the road last year and brings back 16 starters from an 8-4 team a season ago. With a 3-1 record to open the season this is a confident bunch heading to Utah.
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Speaking of Utah, thats the team the Cougars of BYU just faced in the annual Holy War. Despite being a touchdown favorite in that contest the Utes beat the Cougars 20-13. This is a major sandwich game for BYU after traveling cross country to take on Virginia in the opener and then hosting one of college football's proudest programs in Texas. After a bye week BYU hosted in-state rival Utah before they head on the road next week to face up and coming in-state program Utah State. The last three years the Aggies of Utah State have outscored BYU 58-49 so you know the Cougars will have an eye towards next weeks match-up.
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BYU has run the ball very well this year but they are becoming a one-dimensional offense. The Cougars are completing just 33% of their passes for only 4.6 yards per attempt, over 2 yards less than the FBS average. We simply can't trust a team in this price range who isn't able to threaten the opposition through the air. The Blue Raiders have yet to allow over 182 rushing yards to any opponent. That's enough to get us interested in the dog.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Middle Tennessee +23 over BYU: This is a flat spot for the Cougars as they are off Virginia, Texas and Utah in the Holy War and have another rivalry game vs Utah State on deck, while after that they have a home date vs ACC foe Georgia Tech. I do not see them really getting up for this game vs a middle of the pack Conference USA squad. The Blue Raiders have struggled some on defense this year, but their run defense is solid, allowing just 3.7 ypc, and that should make for plenty of 2nd and 3rd and longs for the Cougars, something that Hill is not very good at. The offense for the Blue Raiders is solid and should find a way to get enough points on the board for the cover here. The Blue Raiders should clearly keep this Under 3 TD's.

1 UNIT PLAY

San Jose State/ Utah State Over 61: San Jose's offense hasn't really put up a tone of points, but they do have the 24th ranked passing offense and will have to put up allot of points if they expect to stay with the high scoring Aggies in this one. Should be a fun one for the national audience as these teams combine for 65+ points here.

Jimmy Boyd

Seattle Mariners -105

With Felix Hernandez on the mound the Mariners have a big advantage in this game. Hernandez has posted a 2.86 ERA this season, and he is facing an Oakland team that is already concentrating on the postseason. The Athletics have lost their last two games coming into this series, scoring just one run between the two games while. The Mariners on the other hand are still playing for pride.

This game falls into a system to play on a home team like Seattle when they have a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better in the American League, when they are facing another American League starting pitcher who has a 1.200 WHIP or less. This system is 164-89 (65%) over the last five seasons. I don't expect Oakland to keep Colon in the game long since they won't want to risk tiring him out before the playoffs, and with Hernandez starting for Seattle the Mariners are an easy call.

Jim Feist

Texas Rangers -137

The Angels are 1-5 in lefty C.J. Wilson's last 6 starts after throwing more than 120 pitches in his last appearance. Texas is great at home and has Alexi Ogando going, who is 2-0 against LA this season. He's almost certainly locked down a spot in the Rangers' potential postseason rotation, but before the days of October commence, he'll take the mound once more Friday versus the Angels, against whom he's posted a 2-0 record, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 9:5 K:BB ratio in 13.1 innings this season. The Rangers are 25-9 in their last 34 vs. a team with a losing record. And when these rivals meet the Angels are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings, plus 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Texas.

Rob Vinciletti

Boston Red Sox -125

The Red Sox fit a 17-2 Power System Direct from the database that plays on road favorites that won by 5 or more runs as a road favorite in their last game and are now taking on an opponent off a home favored win by 2 or more runs like the Orioles. Boston has won 9 of 13 as a road favorite from -125 to -150 this year and averages over 5 runs per game in the following 3 categories, at night, on the road, and vs right hander pitching. Boston has Buchholz on the mound and they have won 13 of his 15 starts as he has a superb 1.60 era. He will oppose Baltimore right S. Feldman who has allowed 6 runs in 2 starts spanning 10 innings vs Boston this year. Look for Boston to take the opener.

AC Dinero

Utah State vs. San Jose State
Play: San Jose State +10

MWC conference opener for these 2 newbies, who both also employ new coaches this season. San Jose returns home off a road loss against a pretty good Minnesota team. The QB play is solid and they can generate pressure on the opposing QB. Even though it is a conference opener for the Aggies, there has to be a letdown coming off that tough road loss at USC. They do enjoy and advantage on 3rd down, and the QB and OL are solid. But the skill positions are lacking. The secondary isn't very good, nor is the kicking game. Take the generous points at home with San Jose St.

Nick Parsons

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati

With playoff implications on the line, these divisional foes get set to battle in the opener of this three-game set.

AJ Burnett (8-10, 3.45 ERA)

Burnett gave up two runs off four hits and three walks while striking out 12 over seven innings in a 4-2 win over the Reds on Saturday.

If the veteran has had one weakness this year though, it would clearly be his play on the road. While he's 5-4 with a very respectable 2.37 ERA in front of the home town crowd, he's just 4-7 with a pedestrian 4.50 ERA away from friendly confines.

Homer Bailey (11-10, 3.40 ERA)

Bailey was throwing opposite Burnett on Saturday, giving up four runs off three hits and four walks while striking out three over 5 2/3's innings.

Despite the "sub-par" effort, note that Bailey has given up just seven earned runs combined over his last three starts spanning 19 2/3's innings.

Bailey has been tough to beat at home this year though, 5-2 with a 3.14 ERA.

The Bottom Line

The Reds are heading to the postseason for a third time in four years, but after dropping the final two of a three-game series vs. the Mets after previously winning six of seven, I fully expect them to come out razor focused tonight.

While they struggled against Burnett in Pittsburgh last week, note that the Pirates' hurler is just 2-5 with a ballooned 5.36 ERA in eight career starts in Cincinnati and has in fact posted a ghastly 6.68 ERA over his last six on the road.

A couple of players to keep your eyes on today (and for entirely different reasons), are the Reds' Billy Hamilton and the Pirates' Andrew McCutchen.

Hamilton is hitting .389 since joining the club on September 3rd, while McCutchen is just 3 for 24 over his last seven games and hitless in 14 straight vs. Cincinnati.

Bailey and the Reds definitely enjoy some matchup advantages today; consider laying the short price.

Bruce Marshall

Middle Tennessee vs. BYU
Pick: Under

After losing for a fourth straight time to hated nearby rival Utah, BYU HC Bronco Mendenhall should have no trouble getting his angry squad's attention for this rare visit to the Mountain Time Zone by Middle Tennessee Remember, the Cougs have shown great ability to bounce back, reflected in their 8-1 mark against the number after their last nine losses, inclduing the blowout win over Texas a few weeks ago. Bronco's rugged defense should put the clamps on the Blue Raiders and struggling QB Logan Kilgore, whose early ineffectiveness has promtped some Conference USA sources to wonder if his arm/shoulder injury from the opener vs. Western Carolina has yet to properly heal. And since BYU does not own a quick-strike offense, we have a hard time envisioning these two cracking the 60-point barrier.

Game Plan

Milwaukee -108

Milwaukee is still playing hard this season but the Mets have really packed it in. Gallardo is the better pitcher in this one, so we will back the better pitcher and hotter hitting team.

Red Dog Sports

Miami Marlins +140

The Tigers just wrapped up the AL Central and will rest some players in Miami. Detroit was off on Thursday and make the long trip down to south Florida. The Marlins are a decent home team and will show some late season pride trying to win this game in front of a dozen fans in the Greater Miami Area.

Dave Price

Tampa Bay Rays -122

It's been a rough season for Hellickson, but the Rays are red-hot and he's had Toronto's number. Tampa Bay has won seven in a row, and Hellickson is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA during a six-start stretch versus Toronto. Dickey has also had a rough season and has especially struggled in division play, going 4-7 with a 4.52 ERA in 14 starts. Hellickson, meanwhile, is 6-1 with a 3.95 ERA in 13 starts against the AL East this season. The Blue Jays have dropped Dickey's last two starts versus Tampa Bay while the knuckle-baller gave up a total of eight runs in 13 innings. Take the Rays.

Jack Jones

San Jose State +10

The San Jose State Spartans still have a lot of talent back from a team that won a school record 11 games last season. They have 12 starters and 45 lettermen back. They certainly could be undervalued after a 1-2 start which included road losses to Stanford and Minnesota as an underdog. I’m willing to give them a break for those two losses considering they were against BCS schools and on the road.

In fact, you could argue that San Jose State outplayed Minnesota last week despite its 24-43 loss. It outgained the Golden Gophers 486-424 for the game, but finished -3 in turnover differential, which proved to be the difference. Quarterback David Fales, who completed 72.5 percent of his passes for 4,193 yards and 33 touchdowns with nine interceptions last season, threw for 439 yards and three touchdowns against Minnesota. This guy gives the Spartans a chance to win every week.

San Jose State still has one of the better defenses in the land. It allowed just 21.3 points per game last season and returned 15 of its top 21 tacklers from that unit. Despite playing a tough schedule, the Spartans are only allowing 25.7 points and 368.7 total yards per game this season. They are 6-1 at home over the past two seasons, so they clearly have a salty home-field advantage. Look for this team to be highly motivated to put an end to their 4-game losing streak to Utah State.

While the Spartans lost to the Aggies 49-27 last year, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate. In fact, San Jose State was only outgained 471-485 in the loss. Fales had a monster game in the loss, completing 38 of 50 passes for 467 yards and three touchdowns. Look for him to have another big game against a Utah State defense that hasn't faced a good offense yet.

The Spartans are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games overall. San Jose State is 8-1 against the number when playing with six or less days of rest over the past two seasons. The Spartans are 6-0 against the spread in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. San Jose State is 7-1 against the number in its last eight conference games. Dating back further, the Spartans are 21-6 against the spread in their last 27 games overall. Bet San Jose State Friday.

Doug Upstone

Chicago vs. St. Louis
Play: Over 7

The Cardinals can clinch the division with a win tonight against Chicago. They have Lance Lynn on the mound so the chances are good but the Cubs are answering with their most effective pitcher in Travis Wood - sub 3 ERA - but he has poor numbers against the Cardinals. Rather than pick STL on the ML for little to no value I am going on the over in this one. If Lynn is off at all the Cards are likely to pull him quickly and who knows who will pitch after that. Given all the peripherals I don't see pitcher dominating so take the over in a likely Cards victory.

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Utah St -9½ over SAN JOSE STSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s not common for us to spot 9½ road points in a nationally televised game but this one has all the makings of a blowout in the Aggies favor. Utah State’s offense is one of the best in the nation and they figure to run circles around these disorganized Spartans. In Minnesota last week, the Spartans were run over by the Gophers to the tune of 353 yards on the ground. SJSU knew that Minnesota was going to run the ball every down and could not slow the ground game down even a little. Minnesota threw a lousy 12 passes the entire game. Now the Spartans have to deal with a team that can not only run it down their throats (the Aggies average 190 on the ground per game) but that has a potent passing attack too. USU QB Chuckie Keeton has carved up three of the four teams he’s faced this season. Keeton has completed 71.5 percent of his pass attempts for 275 yards per game while throwing 14 touchdowns against just one pick. Keeton is one of the best in the country and the defense he’ll face here is his easiest assignment to date.
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The Spartans were very good a year ago. They racked up an 11-2 record with QB David Hale posting outstanding numbers. Hale went off for 439 yards last week against Minnesota but a ton of that yardage occurred in garbage time with the Spartans trailing throughout and being down 43-17 in the fourth quarter. San Jose State underwent a coaching change this season and its new coach, Ron Caragher looks clueless out there. This is a guy that coached in the Pioneer Football league for five seasons before being hired as the Spartans head coach at the start of this season. The Aggies destroyed a much better Spartans team last year by a score of 49-27. This year, Aggies are better while the Spartans are a directionless group that has no chance of slowing down the potent offense they will see here.