Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday September, 28

Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Kansas City RoyalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The 65-91 Indians are at Home in Cleveland to Host the 70-86 Royals on Friday for game 1 of their 3 game series with Kansas City. Kansas City gives the rock to 6-8 Smith while 1-0 Huff gets the nod for Cleveland. Smith starts things off with a 4.88 ERA Overall giving up 47 earned runs in 86.7 innings pitched allowing 31 BB and recording 57 K's. On the other side of the diamond, Huff begins the night with a 2.25 ERA giving up 4 earned runs in 16 innings pitched allowing 3 BB and recording 12 K's. The Indians are 15-42 in their last 57 Overall games and 10-27 in Their last 37 Home Games against Left Handed Starters. Also, 3-11 in their last 14 Home games. The Royals are 8-2 in Their last 10 Games against Starters with a WHIP of less than 1.15 and 5-2 in his last 7 games against teams with losing records. I see NO way that Cleveland wins this game.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mariners vs. A'sFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Home favorites like Oakland off a road dog loss and scored 5 or more runs with 4 or less men left on base have gone under all 8 times the last 9 years, vs an opponent off a road win. This system has not lost the last 9 years. Had the total been 8 instead of 7 this would be rated at four units. With the total at 7 we will make it the free play tonight. Seattle is scoring just 2.7 runs per game the past week. Oakland has gone under 62 of 97 vs right handed pitching. Seattle has Beavan on the mound tonight and he has a 2.75 era the last 3. Griffin for Oakland has a 2.67 home era this season. Look for this game to stay under the total tonight.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
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Ryan Dempster has cooled off for Texas with a 4.76 ERA his last three starts. He has an ERA over 10 against the Angels, as well! The Rangers are 4-10 in their last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and they face one of the best in LA ace Jered Weaver (19-4, 2.74 ERA). The Angels are 20-7 in their last 27 overall and 8-1 in Weaver's last 9 road starts. You need an ace when facing this Texas team in this park and the Angels have it. And the Angels are 9-3 in Weaver's last 12 starts against the Rangers. Play the LA Angels.

Dave CoinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers
Pick: Los Angeles AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Very costly loss by the Halos on Thursday. They badly need this game, and should get it. Jered Weaver is their best, and Ryan Dempster has been savaged by this lineup. I'll back the Angels tonight.

Ross KingFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawaii vs. BYUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: HawaiiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If anyone knows this Byu Organization it is Norm Chow who was there between 1973 until 1999.Byu is only 4-8 the last 3 seasons in September and 32-45 since 1992.Byu has beaten Hawaii 8 straight times at home but all by only an average of 16 points.Take almost the generous 4 touchdowns and get your weekend started with a freeplay winner.

Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington vs. St. Louis
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The Cardinals took advantage of a schedule which had them playing six games against baseball's two worst teams. The Cards have won FIVE of six against the Astros and two of three against the Cubs since September 18 and now, with just six games left in the regular season, have put themselves in prime position to secure the NL's second wild card spot. The Cards lead the Dodgers by three games and the Brewers by four. St Louis must finish against the NL’s two-best teams (Nats and Reds) but all six games are at Busch Stadium. St Louis' magic number to clinch a playoff spot and defend its World Series championship is FOUR over the Dodgers. Now the Nats are surely not looking to ‘lay down,’ as they still haven’t clinched the NL East (lead the Braves by four games with six to go) and also would love to get the NL’s No. 1 seed (lead the Reds by one game in that race). The Nationals have gotten to this point with their pitching. They lead the NL with a 3.29 ERA (only the Rays are better in all of MLB) and Gio Gonzalez became the majors' first 21-game winner with Thursday's 7-3 victory over Philadelphia. However, tonight’s starter is Edwin Jackson. There are some who talk highly of Jackson but I’m not one of them. An argument in his favor is that he’s been part of the rotation all season and is making his 30th start of 2012 in this game. His ERA is a solid 3.77 on the year and both of those facts are good points. However, he comes in struggling somewhat, winless in his last three starts (he’s 0-1 and the team is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA). Let me also note that the Nats are 11-18 in his 29 starts (5-10 on the road) and mention how poorly that compares to Washington’s ML-best 95-61 record. Look closer and you’ll realize that the Nats are playing .380 baseball with Jackson starting (11-18) but .660 baseball (84-43) with ANY other pitcher taking the mound. That’s a HUGE difference! I’d be ‘higher’ on the Cards if Adam Wainwright was in better form. He had an excellent six-start stretch just after the All Star break, going 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA from July 24-August 26, but he’s 0-3 over his last five starts (team has won his last two outings, with him posting a 4.15 ERA). All that said, the the Nats have the luxury of KNOWING they are in the playoffs and a four-game lead over the Braves with just six to play, is a comfortable one. Meanwhile, the LAST thing the Cards need is a couple of losses to open this six-game homestand. How does one avoid that? Win the FIRST game right here! It helps that Jackson is the mound opponent. Take the Cards.

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Yankees vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto +1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yankees’ woes in Toronto continued on Thursday night as they were shut out 6-0. Now they have to contend with rookie Chad Jenkins on Friday. He made a solid starting debut allowing just 1 run and two hits in five innings of work. Jenkins struck out four while walking only one. He'll face a Yankees squad that has had their offensive problems in Toronto hitting right around .220 in six games there. Toronto's bullpen did the job on Thursday and they have some arms that can back Jenkins up.
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Hiroki Kuroda is 2-1 with a 5.63 ERA in four September starts; he has gone no further than 6 1/3 innings in a game this month. The Yankees’ starter is 4-5 with a 4.28 ERA in 13 road starts. One of those awful road starts came in Toronto back in May when he allowed 7 runs and eight hits in five innings of work. Toronto is hitting almost .280 in their last eight games. They are now just one game under .500 at home (37-38) where they are putting up nearly 5 runs per game. The Yankees’ bullpen gave up a few runs yesterday and they’ve been a bit leaky as of late. Toronto has now won 15 of their last 24 games at home against New York, including four of six games this season. We like the value once again so we’ll take Toronto on the run line in this game on Friday night.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays -115
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The red-hot Rays, who have won eight in a row, are showing value at this price against a Chicago club that has dropped eight of nine.
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The Rays have the edge on the mound with Hellickson, who has a 3.20 ERA on the season, a 2.93 ERA on the road and a 1.84 ERA over his last 3 starts. Chicago's Floyd, on the other hand, has an ERA of 4.56 on the season, a 4.74 home ERA and a 4.58 ERA over his last 3 starts.
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Floyd has been fool's gold in the underdog role. In fact, the White Sox are 0-6 in his last 6 starts as an underdog. The Sox themselves are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Take Tampa Bay.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers -142
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The Detroit Tigers have risen to the occasion when it matters most here down the stretch. They have won four straight to take a two-game lead on the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central division lead. I like them to carry that momentum into a fifth straight victory over the Minnesota Twins in Game 1 of this series tonight.
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Rookie Drew Smyly has pitched like a seasoned veteran this season, going 4-3 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.249 WHIP in 17 starts. He has been even sharper as the season has wore on, going 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in his last three starts. He is 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA in two starts against the Twins this season.
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The Twins have nothing to play for right now. Scott Diamond is 12-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.264 WHIP for Minnesota, so he has pitched pretty well for the most part this year. However, he has shown signs of wearing down of late, going 1-2 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in his last three starts.
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The Twins are 23-54 in their last 77 games as a home underdog. Minnesota is 16-39 in its last 55 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Minnesota is 0-5 in Diamond's last 5 home starts. The Tigers are 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Minnesota. Bet Detroit Friday.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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TORONTO +183 over N.Y. Yankees
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Our job is not always to predict the outcome of games. It’s to find value in the numbers and let the chips fall where they may. We find another example of that here in fading the overpriced Yankees.
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The toll of pitching at Yankee Stadium and on the road against AL competition could be catching up to Hiroki Kuroda, who has had the luxury of throwing at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium prior to this year. Kuroda is just 4-5 on the road this season with a 4.28 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He allowed seven earned runs in five innings in his only trip to Toronto earlier this season. He’s also allowed four runs or more in four of his past five starts. He’s not pitching well enough to be favored in this range.
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Chad Jenkins is an unknown, which adds to the Yankees billing here. Jenkins is a big, strong dude that may not be ready to front a rotation but he has the arm strength and bulldog mentality to be an asset at the back end. The 6’4” 230 pound righty consistently generates ground balls by keeping the ball down with his heavy and lively 88-93 mph fastball. Jenkins can drop a hard slider in for strikes or use it as a chase pitch. Jenkins is an efficient pitcher who throws strikes and pitches to contact and could have a nice career as a #4-5 type starter. We all know where these two are at but at this price, we can’t pass up the value offered.
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N.Y. Mets +156 over ATLANTA
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Playing the role of the spoiler is almost as much fun as being in a pennant race but sans the pressure. The Mets find themselves in that role again and with six wins in their past seven games, they could certainly make things difficult for the Braves.
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Atlanta is just 13-16 at home against southpaws and will face a solid one here in Jonathon Niese. Niese has been consistently good all season with a 3.54 ERA and an xERA of 3.49. He has 152 K’s with just 46 walks in 183 frames. He also owns a strong groundball bias profile. These are all the elements of strong starter. With a take-back of +156, surely Niese warrants consideration.
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Atlanta has reeled off five in a row to remain tied with the Cardinals in the Wild Card race. Tim Hudson rebounded nicely in his last start vs. PHI (7 IP, 2 H, 4 Ks) after two poor outings. Still, with a mere 37% of his starts this year being quality , it's hard to trust this 37-year-old. Hudson skills have slipped noticeably in the second half with his strikeout rate way down and his xERA rising from 3.56 to 4.42. His age and second-half fade suggest he’s far too risky in this price range.
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CHICAGO +108 over Tampa Bay
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Not sure the Rays should be chalk here with this unfavourable pitching matchup.
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Big-time prospect Jeremy Hellickson has put up big-time ERA and WHIP since arriving to the bigs. So what's the problem with that? Well, a closer looks finds that his strikeout rate and control issues leave him with a soft skills set that has been masked by low hit rate and high strand rate. Note the ERA/xERA discrepancy of 2.34/4.21 before wagering on this guy. His batted ball profile of 40%-GB/39%-FB is not impressive either.
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Gavin Floyd has back to back strong starts for the first time since June. He is 4-1 in five career starts against the Rays, with a 2.57 ERA, 0.86 WHIP with 30 K’s in 35 IP. The South Side was very unfortunate to lose the opener last night after numerous scoring opportunities against James Shields. They’re still a strong team at home and should capitalize on those chances tonight.

MLB Predictions

Cleveland Indians - 111

The Royals were swept in a 4 game series in Detroit during the week and have now lost 5 straight games. Over those 5 games the Royals have scored just 14 runs (2.8 per game). Cleveland went into Chicago looking to be spoilers against their division rivals, and ended up taking 2 of 3 against the White Sox to hurt their chances at winning the division. The Indians have really struggled over the second half of the season, but they've won 3 of 4 and scored 29 runs over those 4 games (7.25 runs per game). Will Smith will pitch for Kansas City and he is 6-8 on the year with a 4.88 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .302 opponents batting average. His last start was vs the Indians where he went 7 innings giving up 8 hits but just 2 earned runs. David Huff will get his 3rd start of the season and looks to improve on his 2-0 record, 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and .220 opponents batting average. His last start was in Kansas City where he went 5.2 innings giving up just 3 hits and 1 earned run in a 15-4 win. Note that the Royals are 3-12 in their last 15 road games vs a team with a losing record, and 2-5 in Smith's last 7 starts vs a team with a losing record. Not much good can be said about Cleveland either, but they've won 3 of 4 and their bats are going. Huff beat Kansas City in his last start where he pitched well, and I expect another solid outing from him with some run support to give him another victory. Take the Indians.

Scott Delaney

My free winner for tonight is going to be the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals, as I'm going to lay the cheap price in a showdown of disappointing teams from this season, but certainly the better team.

Think about it, the Indians are closing out the season with six straight home games: three against the Kansas City Royals over the weekend and three against the American League Central division-contending Chicago White Sox next week. If there were ever a time the Indians are going to close the season playing their best baseball, it's going to be in this series - against a team it can dominate.

Southpaw David Huff is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in two September starts, so I think he'll be the catalyst for the Tribe, who will be out for revenge for it recent skid against Cleveland.

The Royals have won seven of the last eight meetings, but I'm not sold Kansas City is the better team. Cleveland puts it together and lays its pride on the line, Huff pitches his ass off to impress everyone for next year and the Indians open the series with an easy win.

3♦ CLEVELAND

Chuck O'Brien

My free winner for Friday night is going to be the Arizona Diamondbacks, as they host the lowly Chicago Cubs, and should win big.

Aside from a mismatch of teams, we clearly have a pitching mismatch with Ian Kennedy over Travis Wood in Phoenix tonight.

Trust me, look past Kennedy's numbers, cause he's pitched much better than those figures would indicate, especially his last time out, against the Rockies at Coors Field. Kennedy was pelted for four runs on nine hits in six innings. But in his two starts before that, Kennedy allowed one run in 15-1/3 innings. And he's going to have revenge on the brain in this one, as he's 1-2 lifetime against the Cubbies with a lofty ERA of 7.34.

On the other hand, we have Wood, who is in after lasting a mere five innings in his previous start. He is 1-2 with a 5.51 ERA in his career against the D-backs, and ont he road in the last week knowing you're one of the worst teams in the league... I wouldn't be surprised if these guys are more interested in hitting up Christie's Cabaret after the game.

Take the Snakes on the Run Line.

5♦ ARIZONA -1.5

Craig Davis

Friday's free play is the New York Yankees on the Run Line over the Toronto Blue Jays.

It's not often the Yankees get shut out... but that's exactly what happened to them last night in a 6-0 final behind Brandon Morrow. Ivan Nova continues to suck and it'll be surprising if he makes the post-season roster if the Yankees are fortunate enough to get that far.

Today's matchup is more favorable for the Yanks as they get Hiroki Kuroda against Chad Jenkins, and even though Kuroda has been struggling of late, I still have to believe the Yankees bats are going to come alive against this youngster.

Kuroda does have a 5.29 ERA in his last five starts after recording a 1.66 ERA in his previous eight, but we all know what he's capable of when his "stuff" is on... and he can't continue to struggle for this long without a dominant outing somewhere mixed in there.

As mentioned, the Blue Jays counter with Chad Jenkins (0-2, 4.24) who got called up from AAA in August and appeared in 10 games in the Blue Jays pen before earning his first start last Sunday. Manager John Farrell said he's been impressed with Jenkins enough to give him a shot against a lineup like the Yankees have and doesn't believe it will shatter his confidence if New York pounds him early.

Either way you slice it, the Yanks need this game a whole heckuva lot more than Toronto and I believe we'll see a much better outing across the board.

Take the Yanks on the run line as your free play of the day.

3♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5