Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 30,2011

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Utah State +7.5 over BYU: I really expected more from this BYU offense this year, but they just haven't played to their potential just yet. The Cougars once proud offense comes in ranked 111th in total offense (291 ypg), including a 116th ranking in rushing. The Rushing game has not helped them take the pressure off Heaps as team have been teeing off on him and miking him hurry throws and as a result he has only hit 55% of his passes with just 3 TD's vs 5 INT's. This offense is used to putting up 30+ ppg game but not this year. Their offense problems should continue here as the Aggies bring the 12th overall ranked defense to this game, plus they are ranked a very solid 16th vs the run. The Aggies are not a passing team as they rank 104th but boy can this team run the ball. Last year they put up just 169 ypg on the ground with a 3.8 ypc average, but a solid RB corps returning and 4 OL they have gone on to produce 316 ypg (5th in nation) on the ground, with a ypc average of 6.4. Overall this Aggies offense is 16th in yards gained (483 ypg) and 14th in points scored (42 ppg). The BYU defense hasn't been that bad overall (42nd in total defense0, but they can be run on a bit as they are just 62nd vs the run (139 ypg). Yes BYU won last week vs UCF, but they were still outgained in the game by 140 yards and really didn't look all that good. The offense on this team does not allow them to pull away for some easy wins, so I'll gladly take the team that has the better offense and defense and that is getting over a TD. No more than a FG win either way here. KEY TRENDS- BYU is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 vs the WAC and 1-10 ATS as home faves off back-to-back home games, while the Aggies are 10-2 ATS as dogs of 5 or more.

Jim Feist

Rays vs. Rangers
Play: Over 8

The Ball Park in Arlington is a small park, great for offense. Because of the late playoff run, Tampa Bay doesn't have their top pitcher available for Game 1. Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann are candidates, as is rookie Matt Moore and James Shields on three days rest. And the bullpen was used a ton this week. Niemann, pulled after one inning during his last start, said the tightness in his upper back was not an issue and he is ready to pitch. The over is 5-2-1 in the Rays last 8 playoff road games. They face a powerful Texas offense, 3rd in runs scored, tops in batting average and second in slugging. The over is 22-8 in the Rangers last 30 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Play the Rays/Rangers Game 1 over the total.

Steve Merril

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Play: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers and Yankees turn to their aces for game one of the ALDS in New York on Friday. CC Sabathia is 19-8 with a 3.00 ERA in 33 starts. He's given up seven runs and 25 hits over his last 19 innings of work. The lefty has faced the Tigers twice this season allowing seven runs and 16 hits over 13 innings. Wilson Betemit (3-5), Miguel Cabrera (9-16), Carlos Guillen (13-44), Austin Jackson (4-14), Magglio Ordonez (19-71) and Ramon Santiago (7-24) all have good numbers against the Yankees’ pitcher. The Tigers are 31-20 against left-handed starters hitting .287 in the process. They are hitting .325 in their last seven putting up over seven runs per game in that span and the Detroit continues to have the hottest offense in baseball in the month of September. Justin Verlander will be the AL Cy Young and he is also getting consideration for MVP. He is an incredible 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA this season. The righty has given up just five runs and 17 hits over his last three starts. He has also faced the Yankees twice allowing six runs and 11 hits in 12 innings of work with both starts coming early in the season. Robinson Cano (4-21), Curtis Granderson (1-6), Andruw Jones (1-5), A-Rod (4-18), Nick Swisher (8-46) and Mark Teixeira (3-22) have all have struggled against the Tigers’ ace. Granted the Yankees have coasted a bit down the stretch, but the bottom line is they are hitting just .230 in their last seven games. They will face a Tigers’ bullpen that has a 3.66 ERA on the road this year, blowing only 4 saves in 32 chances. This game presents a rare chance to get the best pitcher in baseball (Verlander) at an underdog price tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa is a great value play here as the line is shooting up with the Pitching change for Tampa from Niemann to M. Moore. In his lone start This season Moore gave Tampa a solid 5 innings of shut out ball in New York against the Yankees. Even better was his 11 strikeouts. Many wont have the gumption to Take Tampa here. However, like Texas they are on a big roll getting here as the wildcard and have more momentum than Texas, which has been a big factor in these games the past few seasons. They are swinging hot bats, averaging 6.4 runs per the past week. In 9 meetings Texas had a 5-4 edge, so we Know Tampa can compete here. Texas may have trouble with the young lefty they have not seen and if he can keep Tampa in the game against Wilson, Tampa, like many other wild card teams can steal game one.

Teddy Covers

Rays @ Rangers
Pick: Under 8.5

It’s time for playoff baseball where strong pitching rules and Unders are a bettor’s friend. We’ve got a solid Under matchup in early start action on Friday as the Rangers and Rays square off in Arlington. CJ Wilson has been prepping for this playoff opener for more than a week. This playoff veteran threw three quality starts in four tries in the playoffs last year, including a 6.1 inning, two hit scoreless effort against these same Rays. He faced Tampa three times this year, mowing them down all three times: 21.2 innings, 10 hits allowed, 24 strikeouts. Expect more of the same on Friday.

But don’t expect the Rangers to have an easy time with top tier Tampa prospect Matt Moore. In his big league starting debut last week, at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, Moore threw five innings of shutout ball while striking out 11 batters in the process. Prior to that, he threw three innings of two hit ball out of the bullpen at Fenway Park in Boston, helping the Rays erase their deficit against the Red Sox. This kid has proven he can handle big game pressure in hostile environments. The Rangers big bats haven’t seen him before. And, of course, both bullpens are rested for the latter stages following yesterday’s day off. Take the Under.

Carolina Sports

Utah State vs. BYU
Play: Utah St +7½

Looks like everyone will be crying revenge in this one as Utah St beat BYU last year in a close game. BYU just can’t move the ball and score as they are avg 16.0-ppg and 4.2-yppl.. Utah St went into Auburn and should have won the game. However, the Aggies are coming off an emotional loss at home last week to Colorado St. BYU falls into a negative 2-10 ATS stat system in this one. Utah St also falls into a 56-25 system of ours playing on certain road underdogs related to prior stats. Utah St keeps it close as the public will be all over the revenge factor. BYU 26-23.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +163 over TEXAS

The Rangers had the luxury of coasting into the playoffs and setting up their rotation the way they want it, which means the red-hot C.J. Wilson (1.21 ERA in September) is lined up to make two starts. The Rangers’ offense is as potent as any, and Ron Washington has so many big bats he can barely fit them all in his lineup. And after their trade-deadline moves, they have arguably the deepest bullpen in the playoff field. The Rangers also won their last six games and 10 of its last 11. This team is good and they certainly have a chance to represent the AL in the World Series again. However, this is one game and with a take-back of +163 on Matt Moore and the Rays, we’ll gladly step in. Historically, the Rays are very patient with their pitching prospects, usually elevating them one level per year. Moore appears to be the exception, as he was promoted from Double-A to Triple-A in July and now he's in the big league. Moore has been even better at the higher levels of the minors - his '11 campaign has included a .184 BAA and a no-hitter. Over 155 IP in AA and AAA this year, he struck out an eye-popping 210 batters and walked only 46. He has vastly improved his control and his strikeout rate hasn't suffered one bit. He's added a few ticks to his 88-95 mph fastball and has maintained the effectiveness of his dynamite curveball. His power repertoire works just as well in the late innings as it does early in the game. Moore is strong and durable and is potent against hitters from both sides. Moore made his highly anticipated first major league start on September 22 at Yankee stadium with 11 strikeouts over five innings and no earned runs. The Rays have moved Moore up two levels after another impressive year in the minors. In 9.1 innings in the majors, he struck out 15 and walked three. A rookie with one major league start and two relief appearances is a gamble for sure. But TB won both games in Texas last year in the playoffs, the Rangers have never seen Moore before, the Rays went 31-19 against lefties this season and the big tag makes them very appealing in game one. Play: Tampa Bay +163 (Risking 2 units).

Detroit at N.Y. YANKEES

We’re going to pass on game one in this series and also pass on a series bet. The tag on the Tigers isn’t high enough and we refuse to lay –144 on the Yanks. Detroit's biggest advantage in any series is Justin Verlander but here he'll be matched up against the pitcher who more or less equaled his performance this year in C.C. Sabathia. This sums up the extent of the challenge for the Tigers because their rotation lacks a true No. 2 starter. Doug Fister put up outstanding superficial numbers in two months with Detroit, but he faced a parade of inferior offenses, including four starts against an injury-depleted Cleveland lineup. The Yankees' lineup is deep and patient, finishing second in the AL in OBP and third in slugging despite facing AL East pitching for much of the season, with a league-leading 627 walks, as well as one of the league's best base stealing corps. Of course, the Yankees have their own starting pitching questions beyond their ace, as their second-best starter right now is either soft-tossing Freddy Garcia or strike-throwing Ivan Nova, neither of whom misses many bats. With starting pitching an advantage for neither, and both defensive outfits lacking, we’re leaning to the team with advantages on offense (batting and base-running) and bullpen. It’s easier to imagine the Yankees' lineup beating the Tigers' three non-Verlander starters than the Tigers' lineup doing the same and in terms of bullpens deciding the outcome, the Tigers could run into big trouble. No bets.

JIMMY BOYD

1 Unit on NY Yankees -128

Verlander was the best pitcher in baseball during the regular season, but the postseason is a different animal and so are the Yankees. Verlander was shelled for 5 earned against the Orioles in his most recent start. He has a 4.06 career ERA against the Yankees and is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts against them. He also has limited postseason experience and has gone just 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA in the playoffs in his career. The Tigers are 1-6 in Verlander's last 7 starts as a road underdog. The Yankees, meanwhile, are 19-4 in Sabathia's last 23 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and 23-6 in his last 29 series-opening starts. The Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff games, and 37-15 in their last 52 home games against the Tigers.

Jack Jones

Tigers/Yankees Over 7

There's no denying that Justin Verlander and C.C. Sabathia are two of the best starters in the game. As a result though, they are both getting a lot of respect with such a low total set in Game 1 of the ALDS tonight. Both starters have been sub-par when facing their respective opponents throughout their careers.

Sabathia is 15-12 with a 4.54 ERA in 32 career starts against Detroit. Verlander is 4-3 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Yankees.

Verlander has given up exactly three earned runs in each of his last three starts against New York for a 4.74 ERA, not once making it past the 6th inning. All three of those contests saw eight or more combined runs.

Sabathia is 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA in his last four starts against the Tigers. He has yielded 14 earned runs, 4 home runs and 38 base runners in 26 innings over this span.

The Yankees are hitting .274 and scoring 5.8 RPG at home in 2011. The Tigers are hitting .287 and scoring 5.3 RPG against left-handed starters this year. Detroit comes into the postseason red hot at the plate, and they are 27-13 to the OVER after batting .290 or better over a 20 game span this season.

The Yankees are 25-7 to the OVER in home games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons. I'm seeing an average of 11.3 RPG in this spot. The OVER is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games as a road underdog. The OVER is 35-17-3 in Tigers last 55 games following an off day. The OVER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in New York. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

David Banks

Utah State / BYU Under

ESPN’s Friday night college football telecast once again takes us to Provo, UT where the BYU Cougars will look to build off of last week’s come-from-behind home win and cover when it takes on the in-state rival Utah State Aggies; kick-off from LaVell Edwards Stadium is set for 8:00 ET.

Utah State caught the attention of the college football betting world back in Week 1 when it nearly upset the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium as hefty 24-point underdogs. Though it just came up short, 42-38, head coach Gary Andersen’s squad easily cashed its backers tickets. It then went on to plaster Weber State 54-17 to secure its first win and second pointspread cover of the season, but after its bye week, Utah State fell in overtime at home to Colorado State on Homecoming 35-34 as near two TD favorites. The defeat dropped the Aggies to 1-4 ATS their L/5 as favorites, but they’ll partake in their annual rivalry with BYU a lucrative 14-5-1 ATS the L/20 times they went off the board as underdogs.
Last week’s 24-17 home win and cover as short 1.5-point favorites over UCF has seen the BYU Cougars alternate pointspread wins in each of their first four games played to start the 2011 season. Though they were dominated by the Knights in yardage gained, 399-260, head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s kids never relented winning the turnover battle 3:1 a week after turning the ball over a whopping seven times in their embarrassing “Holy War” defeat to the Utah Utes. In doing so, BYU evened its current record to 2-2 both SU & ATS on the year. Heading into this one, the hosts own a 5-2 ATS tally their L/7 match-ups when favored.

Utah State snapped a 10-game losing streak in its rivalry with BYU last season when it dominated at home en route to the 31-16 outright win and cover as four-point underdogs. The SU win moved the home team to 6-1-1 ATS in these teams L/8 overall confrontations. The Aggies have covered each of their L/4 road games, but BYU is a perfect 6-0 ATS its L/6 when playing off a SU win. The ‘under’ has cashed in each of the L/4 head-to-head meetings.

WEST CAPPER

DETROIT TIGERS (95-67) vs NEW YORK YANKEES (97-65)

The Regular Season matchup was a close 4-3 in favor of the Tigers, and the Yankees are currently listed as a -160 favorite to win the series. The Yankees have lost four in a row and will reply heavily on ace CC Sabathia and a three-man rotation this series. They have the worst pitching staff of any team in the AL Playoffs, but they do have the constant lock down closer in Mariano Rivera. The Yankees obviously have their big bats that led the major leagues in home runs this year with 222, and Jeter seems to be heating up at the right time.

The Tigers have the best pitcher in the entire playoffs, ace Justin Verlander. Doug Fister has been on-fire down the stretch, and Scherzer has some premium stuff. They also have a lockdown closer in Jose Valverde who has converted all 49 saves this year. Their lineup lacked the punch of the Yankees, but Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are as good a 1-2 combo as anybody in baseball. Magglio Ordonez enters the playoffs riding an 18-game hitting streak.

The Tigers beat the Yankees in four games in the 2006 ALDS, and I believe the Tigers will win this series. Verlander is the X factor, and I don't think he loses this entire series. CC is a great pitcher but he isn't even in the same class as Justin Verlander. The Tigers will win this series, so the play is 2** Detroit Tigers (+120) to win this series.

TAMPA BAY RAYS (91-71) vs TEXAS RANGERS (96-66)

Texas has a deep starting rotation amd arguably the best offense in baseball. They also play excellent baseball at home and have won 14 of their last 16 games. To me, Texas has everything you need to make a run to the World Series and win the AL.

The Rays have one of the best pitching staff in this entire postseason. Shields and Price and Hellickson are the headliners, but rookie Matt Moore is the X factor. He has premium top-line stuff and is capable of shutting down any offense. The Rays offense has been prone to long offensive struggles this season, but has some solid right handed hitters in Longoria and Upton to setup nicely against the lefties CJ Wilson and Holland of the Rangers.

The Rangers are playing too good of baseball right now, although I see this being one of the tighest series matchup in the playoffs. The Rays pitch, pitch, and pitch some more, and their offense is capable of breaking out at anytime. I like the Rangers to win a tight series, but -170 is too much juice to lay on the Rangers. The play is a PASS.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (90-72) vs PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (102-60)

The Phillies are setup for postseason glory, as their pitching staff is the best in the playoffs. Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley and Oswalt is as tough as you will find. Their offense is very streaky, but the addition of Huntr Pence really gives Ryan Howard some help at the top. Chase Utley missed most of the year and is just now returning to 100%, but he can never be counted out either.

The Cardinals won the wildcard by winning 23 of their last 31 games. Outside of Carpenter and Garcia, their pitching is a little thin. The Cardinals lineup is one of the most explosive in baseball, with Pujols, Holliday and Berkman being very dangerous.

The Cardinals won 6 of the 9 games played during the regular season, but their rotation doesn't setup nicely to win this series. Ace Carpenter can only throw once and you can't bet against Halladay and Cliff Lee in the postseason. -215 is too high of juice though, so the play is a PASS. I do like the Phillies to win this series fairly easily.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (94-68) vs MILWAUKEE BREWERS (96-66)

This should be a great series. The Diamondbacks went from worst to first this season, and a lot of that is because the 1-2 combo of Kennedy and Hudson. Their lineup is very right handed heavy, so they might struggle against the RHP of Gallardo, Marcum, and Greinke.

Milwaukee getting home-field advantage will be a key to this series. The Brewers are a major league best 57-24 at home while being below .500 on the road. Their lineup is very strong and led by Braun, Fielder, Hart, and Weeks.

I really like the Brewers this post-season and think they have a shot to knock off the Phillies in the NLCS. They will lose Fielder in the off-season, so this could be the last chance Milwaukee has at a championship in a while. I like the Brewers at -170, so while it's a lot of juice, I will be playing the Brewers (-170) to win the series for 2 units.

Bettorsworld

Utah State vs. BYU College
Play: Utah State +8

BYU hosts Utah State on Friday Night as 8 point home favorites, down slightly from the opener of -9 as the early money favors Utah State. Last week Utah State was a "hot" side as bettors moved the line on the Utah State vs. Colorado State game from -6 all the way up to -12.5. What happened? No surprise, Utah State lost 35-34, along with all of the bettors who jumped on the band wagon.

But last weeks loss could be a good thing for bettors still interested in the Utah State side. Imagine what the line would be if Utah State won last week? Imagine what the line would be if Utah State won convincingly?

Utah State remains a bit of a mystery. They haven't won more than 4 games in any season over the last 10 years. But just as they started this year off by almost knocking off national champ Auburn, they started last year off by almost knocking off Oklahoma, losing just 31-24 and they DID beat these BYU Cougars by a score of 31-16. But they also got blown away by San Diego State, Hawaii and Boise State and squeaked by San Jose by 4. They have a recent history of rising to the occasion now and then against good teams before slipping back into mediocrity in other games.

Many thought this BYU offense had the potential to be explosive this year, with 10 returning starters to an offense that seemed to be making strides at times during the 2010 season, but that simply has not materialized in 2011. They scored 14, 16 and 10 in their first 3 games and it took special teams and a 93 yard kick return to score a TD and set up another. Central Florida piled up 400 yards of offense including over 300 through the air while also averaging 6 yards per play and 10 yards per pass play.

The Utah State Aggies don't get many chances to be under the bright lights of a National TV audience. Performing well in a spot like this means the world to any program, especially one looking to make a names for themselves. But the bottom line for us here is that we just don't feel as though BYU has given us enough reason to trust them laying 8 points against anyone. Even going back to last year, if you take away games against UNLV, New Mexico and Colorado State, teams everyone scores 40+ on, the BYU offense pretty much sputtered.

We'll back the Utah State Aggies here and take advantage of the bonus points we're getting as a result of last weeks results.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Texas Rangers -177

The Rangers have the edge at home in Game 1 with Wilson on the hill. He's 4-0 lifetime against Tampa Bay with an ERA of 2.18. Two of those wins have come this month, during which he has held the Rays to 2 runs in 15 innings. The Rangers are 28-11 in their last 39 home games and 26-9 in Wilson's last 35 home starts. Take Texas.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Texas Rangers -1.5 +115

The Rangers are showing value on the run line with CJ Wilson on the bump. He's 4-0 with an ERA of 2.18 in 5 career starts against the Rays, and all 4 of those wins have come by at least 3 runs. He has a pair of wins over Tampa Bay already this month, and those victories came by 5 and 8 runs respectively. We'll take the reigning AL champs on the run line.