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Tulsa at Tulane
The Golden Hurricane set a school record with 11 wins last season and they’ll try to get off to another strong start when they open the season against Conference USA rival Tulane inside the Superdome in New Orleans.
Tulsa went 11-3 SU (8-5 ATS) in 2008 but lost in the C-USA championship game to East Carolina 27-24, falling as a 12½-point favorite. Tulsa bounced back in the GMAC Bowl, ripping apart Ball State 45-13 and easily cashing as a 2½-point favorite. The Hurricane won their first eight games last season (6-1 ATS) before dropping a 30-23 decision at Arkansas as a seven-point chalk on Nov. 1.
After opening the 2008 campaign a respectable 2-2 (3-1 ATS), the Green Wave dropped their final eight contests (2-6 ATS), including embarrassing season-ending losses at Tulsa (56-7 as a 28½-point ‘dog) and at Memphis (45-6 as a 14½-point pup). Tulane lost its final six games by a combined 183 points (30.5 ppg).
Tulsa coach Todd Graham signed a new 10-year contract in the offseason, but he’s got his work cut out for him replacing QB David Johnson who threw for 47 TDs a season ago. Graham said he’s chosen a starter and he’s revealed it to his team, but wouldn’t announce it publicly. However, it’s expected that junior G.J. Kinne, a transfer from Texas, has won the job over returning junior Jacob Bower (138 yards passing in mop-up duty last season) and true freshman Shavodrick Beaver and that Kinne will get the majority of snaps tonight.
The Green Wave have managed just six wins the past two seasons under former UCLA coach Bob Toledo. RB Andre Anderson led C-USA in rushing before going down with a season-ending injury after seven games that saw him run for 864 yards and seven touchdowns. QB Joe Kemp is a redshirt sophomore who won the job in the offseason over returning starter Kevin Moore. Tulane has six starters back on a defense that was 14th in the country in pass defense.
The Golden Hurricane have won and covered each of the last four meetings with Tulane, all by 24 points or more, including a 49-25 blowout in Louisiana in 2007, cashing as a 6½-point road favorite. Tulsa is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 September contests and has won and covered its last three season-openers. Conversely, Tulane has failed to cover in any of its last four at home and is on further ATS slides of 7-23-1 in C-USA contests, 4-10-1 as a home pup and 0-5 on Friday.
Tulsa has topped the total in seven of 10 as a road chalk, four of five in September and four of six when favored more than 10 points. Meanwhile, Tulane has stayed under the number in six of seven overall, five of six conference battles and five straight as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA
NFL PRESEASON
Houston (1-2 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Buccaneers and Texans close out the preseason against each other for the eighth straight year, with Tampa looking to avoid its first losing exhibition campaign since 2006.
Tampa Bay came up on the short end of a 10-6 decision to the Dolphins on Thursday in a lightning-delayed pick-em contest at home. Despite the defeat, veteran Byron Leftwich did enough to win the starting quarterback job over Luke McCown. Neither Leftwich nor McCown are expected to play tonight, as new coach Raheem Morris rests his regulars and will give all the snaps to rookie QB Josh Freeman and second-year pro Josh Johnson.
Houston fell 17-10 to Brett Favre and the Vikings on Monday, failing as a 3½-point home favorite. Starting QB Matt Schaub injured his ankle in the first half, and although he played several series with the injury, he will not be available tonight. That means backup Dan Orlovsky will start and be followed by Rex Grossman, who missed the last two games with a hamstring injury. Alex Brink is the No. 4 quarterback and will see mop-up duty.
Despite losing two of three this month, the Bucs are still on a 7-4 SU and ATS run in preseason action. They’re also 9-4 (8-5 ATS) in their last 13 exhibition home tilts, and they’ve cashed in four straight as a preseason chalk.
The Texans are 6-1 ATS on the road in preseason play since Kubiak took over in 2006 – all as an underdog – including a 16-10 win as a three-point pup over Kansas City three weeks ago.
Tampa Bay and Houston have met in the preseason finale every year of the Texans’ existence, with the Buccaneers going 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS.
In summer action, the over is 8-3 in Houston’s last 11 (4-1 on the road) and 7-3 in Tampa Bay’s last 10 (3-1 at home). Finally, the total has alternated in all six preseason meetings between these squads, with last year’s contest staying well below the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and OVER
Dallas (1-2 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (3-0 SU and ATS)
For the fourth straight summer, the Cowboys and Vikings wrap up preseason play by clashing against each other, this time at the Metrodome, where Minnesota will try for its first unbeaten exhibition campaign since 2001.
Dallas suffered its first preseason home loss since 2002 on Saturday, falling 20-13 to San Francisco as a 6½-point favorite. QB Tony Romo went 11-for-17 for 125 yards and led the Cowboys to a 10-3 first-half lead, but he also threw an interception. Romo and the majority of Dallas’ starters – including WR Roy Williams – likely won’t play tonight. That means veteran Jon Kitna will start under center and be followed by rookie Rudy Carpenter, as fellow first-year QB Stephen McGee is out with a knee injury.
Adrian Peterson scampered 85 yards on the first play from scrimmage on Monday in Houston, and Minnesota never looked back in posting a 17-10 upset win as a 3½-point road ‘dog. Brett Favre played into the third quarter and went 13 of 18 for 142 yards and a TD, but the veteran QB who is nursing a rib injury will not play tonight, and the same holds true for Peterson and the majority of Minnesota’s starters. Either Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson will start, with second-year pro John David Booty being third off the bench.
The Cowboys have lost all five preseason road games under Phillips, going 0-5 ATS and dropping all five by eight points or more, including a 31-10 loss at Oakland in Week 1. Dallas has also failed to cover in four straight as a preseason underdog, but it is on a 4-2 ATS roll in Week 4 of the preseason, including last year’s 16-10 win over Minnesota as a three-point home favorite.
The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six exhibition outings, and since 2004, they’re 7-4 SU and ATS in preseason games at the Metrodome and 7-4 ATS as a preseason chalk. They’re also 4-1 ATS in Week 4 of the exhibition slate the last five years, the lone non-cover coming last season in Dallas.
Minnesota has stayed under the total in four straight preseason games, but the Cowboys have topped the total in seven of their last 10 preseason starts and five of their last six exhibition road games, including a 23-14 loss in Minnesota in 2007.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
San Francisco (3-0, 1-2 ATS) at San Diego (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS)
The Chargers cap exhibition play against the 49ers for the eighth straight year, with San Francisco going for its first perfect preseason this decade and San Diego trying to avoid its first losing summer since 2002.
San Francisco followed up a pair of last-second, one-point home wins over Denver (17-16) and Oakland (21-20) with Saturday’s 20-13 upset victory at Dallas as a 6½-point underdog. New starting QB Shaun Hill played despite a sore back and was mediocre, going 9-for-17 for 79 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions.
Coach Mike Singletary said if Hill does start against San Diego, he will only see very limited action. With backup Alex Smith still nursing an injury and with veteran Damon Huard having been waived this week, look for rookie Nate Davis (10-for-15, 132 yards vs. Dallas) to see the bulk of the time under center tonight.
San Diego built leads of 21-10 and 24-20 against Atlanta last week, but gave up the winning touchdown in the waning seconds, losing 27-24 and pushing as a three-point road underdog. Coach Norv Turner said most of his starters will be on the field for 12 to 15 snaps, but RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who participated in the first two preseason contests, will sit out for the second straight week. Also, Philip Rivers has not played in the preseason finale since becoming the team’s starting QB in 2006, and if that trend continues tonight, veteran backup Billy Volek will start and play the first half with third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst finishing up.
The 49ers snapped a three-game preseason ATS losing skid with Saturday’s win at Dallas, but they’re still just 2-10 (5-7 ATS) in their last 12 summer roadies. Meanwhile, despite losing to the Seahawks at home in Week 1, San Diego is still 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS) in exhibition home games since 2005.
The Chargers are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the last six years against the 49ers in Week 4 play, including a 20-17 win as a three-point road underdog last August. The teams have met every summer since 1996.
The over is 4-2 in San Francisco’s last six exhibition tilts, 8-5 in San Diego’s last 13 and 4-1 in the last five summer battles between these instate rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (72-61) at Tampa Bay (72-61)
The Tigers go in search of their fourth straight win when they send ace Justin Verlander (15-7, 3.38 ERA) to the mound at Tropicana Field in the opener of a weekend series against the Rays, who will counter with rookie right-hander Jeff Niemann (12-5, 3.80)
Detroit, which leads the A.L. Central by five games over the White Sox, just wrapped up a 5-2 homestand with a three-game sweep of the Indians, capped by Thursday’s 4-3 win in 10 innings. Additionally, the Tigers are on positive streaks of 6-0 in series openers and 6-2 as a favorite, but they are on slides of 6-15 on the road and 4-12 on the highway against right-handed starters.
The Rays, who trail Boston by six games in the A.L. wild-card race, just dropped two of three at home to the Red Sox, including Thursday’s 6-3 loss. Despite those results, the Rays are still on runs of 37-15 at home, 30-12 on Fridays, 70-29 at home against teams with losing road marks and 73-26 at home against right-handed starters. Tampa has also won four straight at home against the Tigers.
Verlander faced the Rays on Sunday and held them to three runs on six hits in eight innings, earning a 4-3 victory as Detroit rallied from a late 3-0 deficit. The Tigers have won six of Verlander’s last eight outings and they’re 5-0 in his five career starts against Tampa Bay, with the All-Star holding the Rays to three runs or less in all five outings. Detroit is on a plethora of positive streaks with Verlander on the hill, including 18-6 against the A.L. East, 41-17 when he gets four days of rest and 7-2 when he’s a favorite.
Niemann is an impressive 5-2 at home with a 2.67 ERA and he dueled Verlander on Sunday pitch-for-pitch, allowing two runs on five hits in seven innings. He’s been great in his last three home starts, surrendering a combined two runs in 24.1 innings, beating the A’s, Royals and Orioles. Tampa is 14-5 in Niemann’s last 19 starts overall, 6-0 in his last six at home and 6-1 when he pitches series openers.
Detroit has topped the total in four of Verlander’s last five series openers and five of his last six on four days rest, but as a team, the Tigers are on “under” runs of 7-2 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-1 against the A.L. East and 5-1 against teams with winning records.
Conversely, Tampa has gone over the posted number in five of seven when Niemann has been an underdog, but the Rays have stayed under the number in seven of Niemann’s last 10 overall. The Rays are also on “under” streaks of 14-4-1 as a home underdog, 7-2-2 against right-handed starters and 19-7-2 against A.L. Central teams.
Finally, in this series, the over has been the play in nine of the last 15 clashes at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
DUNKEL
Arizona at Colorado
The Rockies look to build on their 7-1 record in Jason Hammel's last 8 home starts. Colorado is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockies favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-110)
Game 901-902: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (West) 13.920; Washington (Mock) 14.425
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+120); Under
Game 903-904: St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.870; Pittsburgh (Hart) 13.501
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-250); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-250); Over
Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 14.338; NY Mets (Parnell) 14.900
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+175); Over
Game 907-908: Cincinnati at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.616; Atlanta (Lowe) 14.622
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-185) 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+175); Over
Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 15.153; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.079
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Under
Game 911-912: San Francisco at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.765; Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.228
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Over
Game 913-914: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 15.237; Colorado (Hammel) 15.422
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-110); Under
Game 915-916: San Diego at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Leblanc) 15.381; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.137
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-275); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-275); Under
Game 917-918: Texas at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 15.761; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.275
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130); Over
Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 15.997; Toronto (Halladay) 16.001
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-110); Under
Game 921-922: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pavano) 15.204; Cleveland (Sowers) 14.727
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Over
Game 923-924: Detroit at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.279; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.340
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+115); Over
Game 925-926: LA Angels at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 14.145; Kansas City (Meche) 15.171
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+155); Over
Game 927-928: Boston at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Byrd) 16.091; White Sox (Garcia) 15.572
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Over
Game 929-930: Seattle at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 15.674; Oakland (Mazzaro) 15.002
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+100); Over
WNBA DUNKEL
Indiana at Detroit
The Fever look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is just 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games with 2 days of rest. Indiana is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2 1/2)
Game 651-652: New York at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.306; Connecticut 107.281
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 5; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 145
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4 1/2); Over
Game 653-654: Indiana at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.640; Detroit 114.656
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 143 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2 1/2); Under
Game 655-656: Washington at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 106.518; Chicago 114.179
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7 1/2; 150 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 4 1/2; 150
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-4 1/2); Over
Game 657-658: Atlanta at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 114.863; Sacramento 112.719
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 163 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 170
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Under
CFL DUNKEL
Montreal at BC
The Lions look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is just 2-7 ATS in its last 9 meetings in BC. BC is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: BC (+6 1/2)
Game 401-402: Montreal at BC
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 117.670; BC 112.602
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 5; 46 1/2
Vegas Line: Montreal by 6 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (+6 1/2); Under
NFL
Game 137-138: Houston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 120.952; Tampa Bay 122.776
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 32
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Under
Game 139-140: Dallas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 118.929; Minnesota 123.156
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over
Game 141-142: San Francisco at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 121.453; San Diego 125.668
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4; 41
Vegas Line: San Diego by 4 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+4 1/2); Over
Frank Jordan
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Dallas Cowboys +3
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Dallas is just 1-2 in the preseason, but have been outscored by a total of just 8 points. Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 and although the defense has allowed just 26 points the offense only scored 47. In this one look for the Cowboy's offense to knock around the Viking defense. Play Dallas
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Tulsa vs. Tulane
Play: Tulsa -13.5
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Tulsa and Tulane had opposite season last year as Tulsa finished 11-3 with a 7-1 conference record and Tulane was 2-10 with a 1-7 conference record. Look for Tulsa to beat up on Tulane at Tulane to kick off their season with the road win. Play Tulsa
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New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: New York Yankees
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Joba Chamberlain is on an unusual innings limit, but it will help him in the long run and the Yankees keep winning his starts. Roy Halladay was 10-2 at one point only to go 3-6 over his last 10 starts and has giving up 11 runs over his last two starts. Roy Halladay is always tough against the Yankees, but last time out against them despite going a complete game allowed 5 runs on 3 home runs and lost 5-3. Look for another solid few innings from Joba, quality bullpen pitching from the Yankees and Halladay to get another tough loss. Play NY Yankees
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Houston Texans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Houston Texans +3
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Each team is 1-2 and have played close games. Houston's one win came on the road and Tampa Bay lost their only home game. Look for Houston to dominate as the Buccaneers defense isn't what it used to and the offense is in shambles as they just fired their offensive coordinator. Play Houston
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San Francisco 49ers vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -4
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This is a rematch of the 1994 Super Bowl won easily by San Francisco. San Francisco is a perfect 3-0 thus far in the preseason, but have won all three by the grand total of 9 points. San Diego is 1-2, but they are using the preseason to judge the talent of some back ups as their team is in solid shape. Look for San Diego to even up their preseason record at 2-2 with the home win over San Francisco. Play San Diego
Marc Lawrence
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Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros Sep
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Phillies open a three-game series with the Astros when Cliff Lee takes on Wandy Rodriguez in Houston Friday night. Lee checks in off a rare loss in his last start having cashed in 8 of his last 9 team starts. In those game he has been in commanding KW form with 6 walks and 58 strikeouts. Meanwhile, Rodriguez has dropped 3 of his last 4 team starts while compiling a 5.40 ERA in those games. He's also 3-6 home in his MLB career team starts in September. Back the best road team in MLB this season with the better arm here tonight.
Tom Freese
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Under
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Colorado is 7-3 UNDER their last 10 games vs. righty starters. Jason Hammel has allowed 8 runs total in his last 3 starts. The Rockies are 9-4-2 UNDER their last 15 games vs. teams with a losing record. Arizona starter Dan Haren has a better than 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. Arizona is 52-24-4 their last 80 road games when the Total is 9.0 to 10.5. The Diamondbacks are 7-3 UNDER in the last 10 road starts made by Haren vs. teams with a winning record. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Jimmy the Moose
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LA Angels vs. Kansas City Royals
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The Angels have won 7 of their last 9 games following an off-day. The Angels are 19-7 in their last 26 games as a road favorite. LA is 10-3 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % less than .400. LA is 14-5 in Weaver's last 19 starts. In his last 9 road starts they are 7-2. In his last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record they are 8-2. The Royals are 15-36 in their last 51 overall. KC is 16-35 in their last 51 home games. They are 5-16 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record they are 18-37. The Royals are 1-8 in Meche's last 9 home starts and over his last 17 starts overall they are 5-12. The Angels are 20-6 in their last 26 trips to KC. The Royals are 14-38 in the last 52 meetings. Play on the LA Angels -.
Dominic Fazzini
San Diego at L.A. DODGERS
My four-day winning streak came to an end Thursday with the Indians' 4-3 loss to Detroit in 10 innings. They say you can't win them all, but I'm definitely going to start another winning streak today!
Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.94 ERA) has definitely come of age this year. The left-hander is 5-2 with a 1.82 ERA over his last 15 outings, and allowed two runs and four hits with 11 strikeouts in seven innings Sunday in a no-decision at Cincinnati.
Kershaw, who has allowed three runs or fewer in 23 of 27 starts this season, is 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA in six career starts vs. San Diego. He also has an ERA of 2.00 in 14 home starts this year, but is only 3-3 in those outings.
Padres starter Wade LeBlanc (0-1, 9.58) has been rocked in three outings this season. The 25-year-old left-hander allowed four runs and four hits in six innings Saturday at Florida, leaving with a no-decision in San Diego's 7-4 victory.
In three career starts against the Dodgers, LeBlanc is 0-2 with a 9.24 ERA.
Los Angeles is 23-14 vs. southpaws this year, and LeBlanc has allowed nine home runs in 31 2/3 career innings. Those numbers definitely favor the Dodgers, who are 9-4 against the Padres this year, and have won 10 of their last 12 home games vs. San Diego. Take the Dodgers on the run line in this one.
4♦ L.A. DODGERS -1.5
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees at TORONTO
We did it again last night, as Utah State plus the big number stayed inside the impost against Utah.
Now, 30-11-3 with our comp plays the last 44 days!
For Friday night, we will play the Yankees-Blue Jays game to once again go OVER the posted total.
Last night's game saw a combined 15 runs, as New York made it 3 straight, and 4 of their last 5 OVER the posted total, while Toronto climbed OVER for their second in a row, and their 3rd in their last 5 ballgames.
Both Joba Chamberlain, and Roy Halladay are a hot-mess these days, as Joba has allowed 21 runs over his last 23 innings of work, while Doc has allowed 15 runs in his last 17 innings of work.
Finally, these teams have played HIGH to a 6-2-1 tune their last 9 meetings.
The way the Yankees are mashing the ball right now, we will not at all be surprised when this game lands on the HIGH side.
Play the OVER at the Rogers Centre tonight.
4♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Minnesota (pick) at CLEVELAND
The Twins are running out of time in the AL Central Division, as they stand 4 1/2 games behind the Tigers with less than 30 games to play.
Still, the G-Man likes Minny tonight as they open against a Cleveland team that has lost their last 4, and 6 of their last 9 games overall.
Southpaw Jeremy Sowers is just 1-5 at Progressive Field this season, with an ERA of 4.86, and overall he stands at 4-9 for the campaign with an over 5 ERA.
Carl Pavano started the year with the Tribe, and is now working for the Twins, and has done a credible job for Ron Gardenhire's team.
Minnesota just had their 3 game winning streak snapped, but still have captured 11 of their last 15, and they are 27-9 their last 36 games on Friday nights.
Look for Minnesota to open the weekend in Cleveland with the "W".
G-Man riding the Twins in this one.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Bobby Maxwell
Detroit at TAMPA BAY
Delivered yet another winning FREE play on Thursday as Boise State got it done at home over Oregon on the college gridiron. Now 4-1 with my last five comp selections and I've got a baseball winner for you tonight on the Rays as they host the Tigers.
Going with the home team Rays in this one as the Rays' Jeff Niemann has been a rock for this team this season.
Niemann (12-5, 3.80 ERA) is 5-2 at home this season with a 2.67 ERA. His last three at home have been magnificent as he's allowed just two runs in 24.1 innings, beating the A's, Royals and Orioles. With Niemann on the hill, the Rays are on runs of 14-5 overall, 6-0 at home and 6-1 when he opens a series.
This team is on the verge of being knocked right out of the wildcard race and needs this win tonight. They just dropped two of three to the Red Sox, blowing a chance to make up serious ground in the chase.
Tampa Bay is on some impressive runs at home, including 37-15 overall, 30-12 on Fridays, 70-29 against teams with losing road records and 73-26 at home against right-handed starters. To top it off, the Rays have won four straight over the Tigers at Tropicana Field.
Justin Verlander (15-7, 3.38 ERA) is the ace of the Detroit staff, but the Rays know what's coming, they just faced him on Sunday and got three runs off him in eight innings.
I'm playing the Rays tonight who face a Tigers' squad that just isn't good on the road, going 6-15 in their last 21. Go with Tampa.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
John Fina
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 Runs
Today we see the Angels beating the Royals by at least two runs. One reason why we like the Angels in this spot is because they will be sending to the mound the starting pitcher who has been pitching a lot better as of late. This tells it all... The Los Angeles Angels Starting Pitcher (Jered Weaver) has a 2.21 ERA in his last 3 starts, while the Kansas City Royals Starting Pitcher (Gil Meche) has a 8.44 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, the Angels will have the much better starting pitcher on the mound. The Angels have proven long term success against the Royals. This is shown by the Angels being 38-14 in their last 52 meetings against the Royals. The bottom line, the Angels should have no problem beating the Royals (again) tonight! Take the Los Angeles Angels -1.5 Runs!
JIM FEIST
LOS ANGELES ANGELS / KANSAS CITY ROYALS
TAKE UNDER
The Angels' offense was red hot in midseason, but they have cooled off of late. They are currently on a 6-3 run under the total. Ace Jered Weaver (13-5, 3.89 ERA) faces a week hitting Kansas City offense here. Royals righty Gil Meche is a veteran who throws strikes and is 8-3 lifetime against the Angels. Looks like a defensive duel far more than oddsmakers think. Play the Angels/Royals Under the total.
DAVE COKIN
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS / SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
TAKE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The reserves will see the bulk of the action tonight as the 49ers and Chargers wind up their pre-seasons. For the 49ers, #2 Alex Smith has a sprained thumb and didn't play last week and they released QB Damon Huard this week. QB Nate Davis will get most of the snaps tonight. The 49ers drafted Davis in the fifth round from Ball State, well aware of the fact he had a dyslexia-like learning disability that makes reading comprehension difficult for him. In each of the first three exhibition games, Davis was given a package of plays that required shorter calls at the line of scrimmage with a limited number of formations and motions. "But other than that, we give him the same rack of plays going into the game," OC Jimmy Raye said. "We may cut down some of the things that are a little more difficult for him to call." As for Smith, he let loose 50-60 passes with the splint removed from his injured hand on Wednesday. "It felt good. I'm ready to go," Smith said. That said, Smith will not play tonight. Hill and the first unit will play one or two series, and Davis will be under center the rest of the way. Head coach Mike Singletary is a fiery guy and this is his first preseason, as he became head coach in the middle of last season. The offensive line and the passing game have struggled at times, which could therefore be a problem against San Diego. The new-look secondary had a three-interception performance against Denver, a 17-16 win. However, they allowed 341 yards to Denver, 20 of 33 passes and 7-of-12 on third downs, and even allowed 371 yards (252 passing) in Saturday.5?s 20-13 win at Dallas as a +6 dog. The 49ers had only 36 yards over their first three drives against Dallas. They even used their version of the Wildcat formation twice to try getting something going, with little success. Davis went 10 of 15 for 132 yards and leading two scoring drives in the final quarter, bolstering his chances of sticking with the club. "It meant a lot to me," Davis said. "That's one thing I want to be on this team -- a leader." The 49ers have only one sack in three preseason games. After winning 37-20 at Chicago in Week 3 last August, the 49ers lost 20-17 at home to San Diego, turning it over 6 times! San Diego is 7-4 SU/ATS the last two-plus preseasons under Norv Turner. The preseason QB rotation has been excellent, with Philip Rivers, Billy Volek and mobile Charlie Whitehurst. Turner runs wide-open offensive attacks, even in preseason. The Chargers rolled up 384 yards (329 passing) in the opener, a 20-14 home loss to Seattle, before getting 325 yards in a 17-6 win at Arizona. Saturday they had 438 yards in a 27-24 last second loss at Atlanta. The Chargers' offense was one of just three in the league to average more than 6 yards per play in 2008. Even the backup RBs are strong with Darren Sproles and Mike Bennett. But the Chargers are not doing much preparation for this game, and Coach Turner decided to break camp one day earlier than expected, which indicates the staff just wants to get this game in the books and start playing contests that count. I'll side with the 49ers plus the points tonight.
EZWINNERS
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Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox -121
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This will be the second time in little over a week that the Red Sox get to face the White Sox starting pitcher Freddy Garcia. Garcia was decent the first time as he allowed five hits and three runs in 6 and 1/3 innings, but I expect Boston to get some better swings this time around. Boston's starting pitcher Paul Byrd was outstanding in his first start and I expect him to pitch well here. The White Sox have given up on their season, while the Red Sox are fighting for the AL wild card. Boston is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings with the White Sox and I expect those winning ways to continue. Play on Boston.
INSIDERS SPORTS GROUP
San Diego Padres vs. LA Dodgers
Play: LA Dodgers -1.5
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The San Diego Padres have been terrible this season. To say the least, they are simply waiting for the season to be over. Now the San Diego Padres will be using starting pitcher Wade LeBlanc who has a 9.58 ERA. It's safe to say that the LA Dodgers will score many runs off Wade LeBlanc and the Padres.
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The LA Dodgers are fighting to stay in first place, and we expect a solid performance from them tonight as they are using a solid starting pitcher (Clayton Kershaw). Clayton Kershaw has pitched well this season (shown by his 2.94 ERA), and we expect to see another solid start from him tonight.
The LA Dodgers are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings against the San Diego Padres, and should be able to get another blowout win tonight!
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Take the LA Dodgers -1.5