Jeff Benton
Texas -125 at BALTIMORE
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Back on track with the free plays on Thursday as Boise State took care of Oregon. For Friday’s freebie, I’ll take the Rangers and the constantly underrated Scott Feldman in their opener of a three-game weekend series at Baltimore.
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Oddsmakers and handicappers who have been holding their breath waiting for Feldman to implode passed out long ago. All the guy does is deliver quality start after quality start, and he’s now 14-4 with a 3.72 ERA on the season, including consecutive road wins (Tampa Bay and Minnesota) in his last two trips to the mound. In those two particular games, Feldman pitched 12 2/3 innings and gave up a grand total of … ZERO runs! He yielded just eight hits and six walks while striking out 13 in those 12 2/3 innings, as Texas won by scores of 4-0 and 3-0.
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With those two victories, Feldman improved to 10-1 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP on the road this year, and in his 12 starts as a visitor, the Rangers have posted 11 victories. (Overall, Texas is 17-7 this year when Feldman starts). Still not convinced the right-hander is the real deal? Maybe this will do the trick: He has made two starts in his career against the Orioles – one this year, one last year, both in Baltimore – and gave up a total of four runs on nine hits in 11 innings (3.27 ERA). Texas won both of those games, too, by scores of 5-3 and 6-5.
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As for Baltimore rookie right-hander Chris Tillman, I admit that kid has promise. He’s given up three earned runs or fewer in six of his seven starts, including the last five in a row. But the O’s are 1-5 in Tillman’s last six trips to the mound. Furthermore, after getting swept at home by the Yankees to start this week (losing by the combined score of 24-9), Baltimore has now lost 30 of its last 43 overall since July 20, including 15 of 21 (and eight of the last 10) at Camden Yards. On the other hand, in addition to consistently winning behind Feldman, the Rangers are on runs of 3-0 overall, 4-1 against the A.L. East, 13-5 when playing on Friday and 4-1 against the O’s (all in Baltimore).
3♦ TEXAS
ROCKETMAN
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Philadelphia @ Houston
Play: Under
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Two excellent pitchers facing off here tonight with Cliff Lee against Wandy Rodriguez. The Phillies have three Unders and no Overs in September while the Astros has two Unders and no Overs in September. Houston is 7-18 O-U this year as a home underdog of +100 to +125. Houston is 3-10 O-U this year when playing with a day off. Philadelphia bullpen has a 3.39 ERA on the road this year. Cliff Lee is 12-10 with a 2.83 ERA overall, 7-3 with a 2.67 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA his last 3 starts. Rodriguez is 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA overall, 7-2 with a 1.73 ERA at home and 1-2 with a 2.14 ERA his last 3 starts. These two studs should keep the runs at a minimum tonight. We'll recommend a small play on UNDER THE TOTAL tonight!
Mike Rose
Tulsa vs. Tulane
Pick: Tulane +14
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Last season, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane had one of the most efficient offenses in the nation. QB David Johnson threw for 4,059 yards, and RB Tarrion Adams rushed for 1,525 yards and 15 touchdowns. In total, Tulsa made NCAAF betting fanatics thrilled by averaging an NCAA-best 569.9 yards of offense per game. The unit ranked ninth in passing (301.9 yards per game), fifth in rushing (268.1 yards per game), and second behind Oklahoma in the country in points scored (47.2 points per game). However, there is a lot of offensive turnover on the team, but HC Todd Graham should still have his unit moving at a rapid pace.
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The Tulane Green Wave probably won’t be keeping up with Tulsa’s offensive pace, as the unit only averaged 16.7 points per game last season, the eighth worst mark in the country. The Green Wave haven’t won a game since September 25th of last season, and the team is only 2-6 ATS since then. Even though Tulane’s defense was strong against the pass last season (172.8 yards per game, 14th in the NCAA), the unit ranked 107th in the country, allowing 34.5 points per game.
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This appears to be a one-sided battle, but Tulsa’s lack of continuity on offense may come back to bite it. The Golden Hurricane may have destroyed the Green Wave 56-7 last season, but we’re talking about a Tulane squad which nearly knocked off East Carolina SU last season at home. Take the two touchdowns all the way to the bank.
ATS Consultants
Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies UNDER 9
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Good pitching battle tonight at Coors as Danny Haren takes on Jason Hammel in game 1 of a big series for the Rockies. Colorado leads the Wild Card standings, but the Giants are breathing down their necks.
Haren (13-8, 2.78) is having a great season for the Diamondbacks, and will look to finish strong. He is 2-1 with an 0.90 ERA vs. the Rockies in 2009, allowing just 2 runs in 20 innings of work.
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Hammel (8-7, 4.40) has been a real find for the Rockies after basically being dismissed in Tampa. Colorado has been the surpirse team in the National League, playing out of their minds since Jim Tracy took over. Hammel is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA in his last 5 starts.
GoodFella
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SEA (-108) vs OAK
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Seattle is playing good ball right now & starter for tonight Ryan Rowland-Smith pitched a great ball game last outing vs KC (8 IP, 7 K's 3 runs), but he took the loss as Zach Grienke tossed a 1 hit shutout vs the M's. Rowland-Smith is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 4 career starts against the A's, including a 1.86 ERA with no decisions in 2 starts this season. Oakland has called up Clayton Mortenson for this start tonight, as he replaces Mazzaro who was originally scheduled to start tonight, but he is out with shoulder tendinitis. Seattle has dominated the A's this season, going 10-3 and 5-2 AT Oakland this year, and I really like how Seattle is playing right now & I like what I have personally seen from Rowland-Smith lately. Seattles' bullpen continues to be very strong, & I look for the Mariners to get another victory vs this Oakland ballclub they have dominated this season.
Drew Gordon
Florida at WASHINGTON +110
Now on a 53-37 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including Boise State over Oregon 19-8 last night! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Florida/Washington match up.
I've always said: You have to pick and choose your spots with the lowly Nats, and tonight's match up with a road-weary Sean West is precisely one of those spots! Read on...
I know full well the Nationals have been struggling mightily at the plate, scoring 3 runs in their L38 innings, which is atrocious no doubt. However, they'll get plenty of oppurtunities to redeem themselves tonight against the Marlins Sean West, who's been nothing but a liability on the highway. Not only is the lefty 1-3 with a 5.74 ERA away this season, but he also struggled mightily against Washington in his only start against them, getting knocked around for 5 runs in 4 1/3 innings back on June 30th!
On the flip side, the Nationals Garrett Mock is coming off an excellent effort against the Cardinals, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits over 6 innings in his last one. No big surprise there, as he's been on point over his L5 starts, going 3-2 with a solid 3.14 ERA over that span! Marlins are 12-16 against righties on the road under the lights, and they'll have their hands full with Mock tonight.
Finally, Washington has won 3 straight against the Fish, and for all the talk about the Marlins wildcard standing, I really have not been impressed with their play. Trouble in the clubhouse between their biggest stars, and a bullpen posting a ridiculous 6.34 ERA over their L3 games isn't helping either! In the end, Mock will outpitch West with ease, as the Marlins southpaw runs into trouble once again on the road Friday.
Take Washington behind Mock over Florida and West in this MLB match up.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Wunderdog
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play Tampa Bay Rays
While Justin Verlander has to be respected, neither he nor his Tigers teammates have earned enough respect to be even-up vs. the Rays at home. The Rays are king of the home field as they are 70-30 in their last 100 here against a team with a losing road record. While the Tigers have been great at home, they have been just 27-39 on the road, and have won just six of their last 21 on the highway. The Rays have even ramped-it-up higher at home against a right-hand starter as they are now 73-26 in their last 99 here against a righty. When they wheel out Niemann to start at home, they have won their last seven as a home chalk and 12 of his last 15 as a favorite overall. The Tigers are just 5-16 in their last 21 on field turf, and it will take more than Verlander to win this one. I’m going with the Rays here.