Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 5

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Kansas City at NY Yankees
The Royals head to New York tonight to face the Yankees and come into the contest with a 7-1 record in James Shields last 8 starts as a road underdog. Kansas City is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105)

Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Worley) 14.875; Cubs (Wada) 16.245
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+100); N/A

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Williams) 15.995; Washington (Strasburg) 17.384
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-230); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-230); Over

Game 905-906: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Harang) 13.956; Miami (Cosart) 15.401
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Miami (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-125); Under

Game 907-908: NY Mets at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Colon) 16.091; Cincinnati (Simon) 14.774
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Under

Game 909-910: St. Louis at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lackey) 13.273; Milwaukee (Fiers) 14.701
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); Over

Game 911-912: San Diego at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 14.483; Colorado (Matzek) 13.332
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+105); Over

Game 913-914: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Nuno) 15.259; LA Dodgers (Haren) 14.388
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+145); Under

Game 915-916: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 14.596; Cleveland (House) 14.939
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Under

Game 917-918: Kansas City at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 16.076; NY Yankees (Pineda) 14.403
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105); Under

Game 919-920: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 16.497; Boston (Webster) 14.762
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Under

Game 921-922: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 16.292; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 13.811
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over

Game 923-924: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 15.749; Texas (Baker) 13.999
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-175); Over

Game 925-926: LA Angels at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Shoemaker) 16.560; Minnesota (Nolasco) 15.137
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Under

Game 927-928: Houston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oberholtzer) 16.216; Oakland (Samardzija) 14.311
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-230); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+195); Under

Game 929-930: San Francisco at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Peavy) 16.349; Detroit (Porcello) 15.217
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+115); Over

Carolina Sports

Washington State vs. Nevada
Play: Washington State -3½

The Washington St Cougars visit the Nevada Wolfpack Friday night and the game will be seen live on ESPN at 10:30 pm est. Washington State was upset last week against an average Rutgers team. As always a Mike Leach coached team has a great offense but has no defense. The defense is on the field a ton because of WSU's fast-paced high-tempo attack that will either score early in a possession or punt in a possession. Without having depth on defense the defense gets exhausted by the 4th quarter.

Last week WSU put up big numbers scoring 38-points, 532 yards and 7.7-ypp. However, the defense 41-points, 496 yards and 7.1-ypp. Nevada has a very good rushing attack and showed it last week against FCS Southern Utah. Southern Utah is not exactly a power in the FCS so that was to be expected. A major-red-flag for us was for Nevada giving up 7.1-ypr (yards per rush) on only 22 attempts. The one good thing for Nevada is that WSU passes and pass all the time. Last week only 14 rushes for 6-yards for the Cougars. Look for Leach to exploit this weakness this weekend in this game.

There is just too much talent for WSU to lose this one but we always worry about their defense especially on the road in high-altitude in Reno, NV. The Cougars do well off a loss as they are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. The Cougars are 6-1 ATS their last 7 road games. We will side with the much better offense in this one as WSU is in a must win if they have hopes to get to a bowl game this year.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh/Boston College Under 49.5: This game does not scream a whole heck of allot of points. The Panthers put up 62 points last week and did so with 409 yards on the ground. That was expected as they were facing an FCS for and were breaking in a new QB as well. Even though the Boston College Eagles are not a top Notch FBS team, they still will put forth a much better defense than the Panthers faced last week. The Eagles faced UMass last week and did put up 511 yards, but still had just 30 points in the game. Most of their offenses came on the ground as they churned out 338 yards rushing in the game. Both teams have new QBs this year and both will continue to use their run game, especially early in the year. The offenses are conservative, while the defenses are much better than these teams faced last week. I look for a game in the lower 40's at best. KEY TRENDS: The UNDER is 9-2 in the Panthers last 11 on fieldturf and the UNDER is 16-5-1 in the Eagles last 22 games following a win of 20 or more.

Jim Feist

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -123

Both teams are in a pennant race but the Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the American League East. KC is 15th in baseball in runs scored, 19th in slugging and the team is 0-2 in James Sheild's last two starts allowing 7 runs and 15 hits in 13++ innings. He has a 4.26 ERA against the Yankees this season, who have hit over .300 off him. The Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 home games, 12-5 at home against a team with a winning record. Michael Pineda has great stuff (2.09 ERA) allowing 2, 1, 1, 2, 2 and 0 runs his last five starts. Pineda earned his third win of the season Monday, holding the Royals to one run in 6.1 innings of work. The Royals are 32-76 in the last 108 meetings, including 13-41 here in New York.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins +110

The Angels have dropped the last 2 struggling in Houston losing last night 4-1, while the Twins were blasting the Whitesox. We want o play against road teams like the Angels that are off a road favored loss and had 4 or less hits, that are playing an opponent off a home favored win. These teams are 1-14 straight up since 2004 and 0-10 if the home team won by 2 or more runs. They are 0-6 when favored like the Angles are tonight. The Twins will get a solid start from Gibson tonight and will look to take advantage of LA Lefty Santiago who has lost 7 of 9 on the road and has allowed 8 runs in 11 innings here. With Minnesota 11-2 at home off a home win by 5 or more runs where they scored 10 or more runs. We will back the Dog and Take Minnesota.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Sleepyj

DBacks / Dodgers Over 7.5

Tonight we look to the Dodgers and Arizona. First glance i looked at the under but after i dug in, i really think the OVER is a great play here. AZ will travel a short distance here from SD to LA. Last night the DBacks got a nice 5-1 win over the Padres. Tonight they get to face another RHP in Dan Haren. Seeing another RHP in Haren should help with timing and the Dbacks coming in off a win should help here as well. Dan Haren on the year is 11-10 with a 4.33 ERA. Haren has been inconsistent this year, and i think i have a good gauge here on him tonight. He hasn't seen this AZ team since back in June and gave up 8 hits and 3 runs while striking out 3. That was a bit of a different team at that time though. Now Haren gets a team that is playing care free baseball. The entire lineup last night for the Dbacks had 13 hits and while the only Dback to not get a hit was the pitchers spot. That must be a great thing when the entire team was hitting the ball and coming away with a nice victory. I think that carries over here tonight in LA. As for the Dodgers they will face Vidal Nuno. Nuno has pitched a few good games here but has lost 9 out of 10. He seems to get into jams and LA can make u pay if you get in one. I expect that tonight. LA is coming off a series loss to the Nationals tonight and have a full days rest. I think the Dodgers will be fresh and they will be looking to get to Nuno early in this one. My gut says one of these pitchers tonight wont last very long. The problem with Nuno is he gets very little run support. I think that may play on his mind tonight as he faces a superior team in LA. I think he shuts it down if he gives up a few runs early tonight and runs the risk of getting bombed here.. The Dodgers will be swinging away tonight. They only hold a 2 game lead here in the West and can't afford losses with the Giants right behind them. I think both teams have success tonight hitting the ball against two weak pitchers and we get over the total of 7.5. I do think this line may drop to 7 and then go back to 7.5..So keep an eye on the market maybe you can grab yourself a 7.

Jesse Schule

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +1½ -108

The Phillies are playing the role of spoiler late in the season, winning 10 of their last 15 overall, including a three game sweep of Washington last week. They play game 1 of a three game series in the nation's capital Friday, and the home team is an enormous favorite with Stephen Strasburg on the mound.

Strasburg (11-10, 3.49 ERA) is undefeated in his last four starts, but his last home start was far from impressive. He was torched for five runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in just four innings against the Giants. He's had success against the Phillies in previous meetings this season, but he faces an inspired lineup tonight that scored 15 runs while taking 2-of-3 in Atlanta this week.

The Phillies hand the ball to Jerome Williams, who has won three straight since joining the team. Williams has surrendered just four runs on 12 hits over 21 innings in wins over the Mets, Mariners and Cardinals.

Grady Sizemore hit a home run against the Braves on Wednesday, and he's 6-for-13 with a home run and five RBIs in the season series versus the Nats.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Jimmy Adams

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -118

Two teams come into this game playing for exercise as neither one of them has a realistic shot of reaching the playoffs. Eric Stults takes the hill for San Diego. This lefty is pretty much a mess. He did have a hot stretch that has slowed significantly but that streak was a complete fluke. Stults isn’t a consistent enough pitcher to be worthy of backing. He doesn’t have any control over his command and that figures to be a huge issue at Coors Field. The ball jumps out of that park easily and the Rockies already have a big offensive edge, so helping them out by putting batters on doesn’t bode well for San Diego.

Rookie Tyler Matzek is rounding into form nicely and showing that he is worthy of being a back of the rotation guy. Matzek also may be auditioning for a new team next season, as the Rockies are likely to unload a lot of the roster at year’s end. He’s not the best pitcher by any means, but has good enough stuff to get through this Padres lineup, which is back to not hitting. The Padres have now plated 3 runs or less in 8 straight games. No reason at all to back the Friars so I’ll lay the small chalk and look for Colorado to come out victorious.

Will Rogers

Pittsburgh vs. Boston College
Play: Boston College +5

The Pitt Panthers looked pretty good in Week 1, defeating Delaware by a score of 62-0. Of course we can't get too excited about a blowout win against a small school hailing from the CAA. The Panthers face a much tougher test this week, taking on the Boston College Eagles in Massachusetts. I'll take the home team getting points.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Tyler Murphy - The Senior QB comes over from the Florida Gators, and he's wasted no time making an impact. Murphy completed 70% of his passes for 174 yards and a TD, while picking up another 118 yards and a TD on the ground. He'll give the Eagles a dual threat weapon, and Pittsburgh should have it's hands full trying to contain him.

2. Eagles Ball Control - Boston College ran the ball 61 times for 338 yards in their opener, dominating time of possession holding the ball for 42 minutes.

3. X-Factor - Getting the Eagles as a home dog of more than three points is excellent value, especially when you consider that Pitt was 1-4 ATS on the road last year.

Jonathan Jorcin

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs +102

These two teams are headed to in totally different directions. The Pirates are losers of 4 straight, and their playoff hopes are still alive, but if they do not turn things around quickly, the playoffs may not happen. The Cubbies are a team out of the playoffs yet again, but Theo Epstein has this club poised for a turnaround behind one of the best plethora of young future stars.

The Pirates send out Vance Worley who snapped a three start losing last time out, in a 3-2 victory over the Reds. During that losing streak he posted a 6.11 ERA and against such a promising young team, with prospects like Baez and Jorge Soler, who has hit safely in his first 7 games in the majors. Soler is batting a crazy 12-26 with 8 extra based hits and 10 RBI’s. This team continues to put up runs, as they hope to finish this year strong. Even without Castro and Rizzo who look to be sidelined from the rest of the year, this team is talented enough to put runs on the board, especially since they play the Pirates who had trouble doing just that lately.

Among the future of the Chicago Cubs lies within the pitching of Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, and the guy on the mound tonight in left handed Japanese Tsuyoshi Wada. Wada has allowed 3 of fewer earned runs in 8 of his 9 starts in the majors, and the slumping Pirates are coming into this game with trouble plating runs. In their last 10 games, they have hit .172 with runners in position and have recorded fewer than 3 runs in 7 of their last 10 games. Get a slight underdog role here, take the Cubs to win an early game.

TJ Masterline

Phillies vs. Nationals
Play: Over 7

Coming off one of their most thrilling wins of the season, the Washington Nationals return to the nation's capital to begin a six-game homestand in Friday's series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Nationals topped the Los Angeles Dodgers 8-5 in 14 innings on Wednesday in a game that featured both teams scoring in both the ninth and the 12th innings before the visitors finally came out on top. Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 overall. Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 road games. Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 on grass. Over is 4-1-1 in Phillies last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League East. Over is 7-2 in Phillies last 9 Friday games. Over is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 11-4 in Phillies last 15 during game 1 of a series. Over is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 games as a road underdog of +201 or greater. Over is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 games as an underdog of +201 or greater. Over is 13-6 in Phillies last 19 games as a road underdog. Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 Friday games. Over is 12-3-1 in Nationals last 16 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 16-5-1 in Nationals last 22 games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 6-2-2 in Nationals last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 18-6-3 in Nationals last 27 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 6-2-1 in Nationals last 9 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. Over is 6-2-1 in Nationals last 9 games as a favorite. Over is 6-2-1 in Nationals last 9 games as a home favorite of -201 or greater. Over is 15-5-1 in Nationals last 21 during game 1 of a series. Over is 8-3-1 in Nationals last 12 overall. Over is 8-3-1 in Nationals last 12 on grass. Over is 18-7-3 in Nationals last 28 games as a home favorite. Over is 18-7-3 in Nationals last 28 home games. Over is 9-4-1 in Nationals last 14 games following an off day. Over is 3-0-2 in Strasburgs last 5 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater. Over is 3-0-2 in Strasburgs last 5 starts as a home favorite of -201 or greater. Over is 8-1 in Strasburgs last 9 starts during game 1 of a series. Over is 6-1 in Strasburgs last 7 Friday starts. Over is 6-1-1 in Strasburgs last 8 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 5-1-2 in Strasburgs last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 11-3 in Strasburgs last 14 starts vs. National League East. Over is 7-2-1 in Strasburgs last 10 starts as a home favorite. Over is 7-2-1 in Strasburgs last 10 home starts. Over is 17-5 in Strasburgs last 22 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Over is 10-4-2 in Strasburgs last 16 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Dr Bob

BOSTON COLLEGE (+4½) 23 Pittsburgh 22

Pittsburgh’s 62-0 win over Delaware was impressive. Moving the ball for 7.2 yards per play against a horrible Delaware defense isn’t that impressive since the Blue Hens would allow 7.2 yppl to an average FBS team, but giving up just 57 total yards at 1.2 yppl is an incredible feat given that Delaware’s offense was projected to be just 0.2 yppl worse than an average FBS attack this season after rating at -0.2 yppl last year (6.2 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average FBS team). The Blue Hens returned their starting quarterback, top rusher, and leading receiver so they aren’t much different than last year’s offense. I expected the Pitt defense to be a bit worse this season with just 5 returning starters and without last year’s Outland Trophy winner and 1st Team All-American DT Aaron Donald but I don’t think that anymore. Pitt was only 0.3 yppl better than average last season with Donald and my updated ratings project the Panthers at 0.4 yppl better than average (started the season with a rating of 0.1 yppl better than average). I wasn’t particularly high on Pitt coming into the season but last week’s 62 point win as a 24 point favorite has my attention.

Boston College wasn’t as impressive as Pitt last week in their 30-7 win at Massachusetts (as a 17 point favorite), but the Eagles were very good in dominating the Minutemen 511 yards at 6.0 yards per play to 202 yards at 4.6 yppl. I have BC rated a bit below average and last week’s performance rated at 3.0 points better than average after accounting for site and strength of opponent, so the Eagles weren’t too much better than projected. New quarterback Tyler Murphy, a graduate transfer from Florida, was decent throwing the ball and led the Eagles in rushing, but he’s certainly not as good as Chase Rettig was last season. The running backs were very disappointing, as Rouse, Willis, and Hilliman combined for just 4.3 ypr against a horrible U Mass run defense. Overall the offense played about as expected while the defense was 0.3 yppl better than expected.

If I based this prediction based solely on last week then Pitt would be an easy choice. However, my model doesn’t overreact to one game and the line on this game would have been around pick prior to last week’s results. My ratings favor Pitt by 2 ½ points and Boston College applies to a solid 82-34-2 ATS game 2 home underdogs situation that has been a consistent winner over the years. I’ll lean with Boston College in a minor upset and I’ll also lean Under the 49 point total.

NEVADA (+3½) 35 Washington State 34

Both of these teams were disappointing last week, as Washington State was upset by Rutgers 38-41 while Nevada played poorly in a 28-19 home win over Southern Utah, an FCS team that is about 16 points worse than an average FBS team. Washington State actually played at a decent level last week, as the Cougars outplayed the Scarlet Knights from the line of scrimmage 538 yards at 7.7 yard per play to 499 yards at 7.5 yppl. Washington State played above expectations offensively and below expectations defensively and their overall rating stayed about the same. Nevada’s rating took a bit of a hit as the Wolf Pack should have outplayed Southern Utah from the line of scrimmage more than they did (549 yards at 5.8 yppl to 380 yards at 5.9 yppl). Overall, my ratings would favor Washington State by 5 ½ points in this game but my game predictions take into account matchups and the matchup in this game favors Nevada. Nevada’s biggest weakness is defending the run, as the Wolf Pack allowed 272 rushing yards at 7.4 yards per rushing play last season and just gave up 8.4 yprp to Southern Utah last week. That weakness is not going to be taken advantage of by a Washington State offense that throws the football 80% of the time (84% last week). The Wolf Pack defend the pass at a relatively decent level (just 0.2 yards per pass play worse than average) so while Nevada’s defense is really bad overall it is not that bad against a team like Washington State that throws the ball so often. That match up advantage explains why my ratings could favor Washington State by 5 ½ points but my model only favors the Cougars by 3 points.

The matchup has created a bit of line value in favor of Nevada and their chances of covering are enhanced by some very strong situations. Nevada applies to a to a 61-19 ATS game 2 home underdog situation that just won with UTSA over Arizona last night and Washington State applies to a negative 66-141-6 ATS first road game situation. I’ll consider Nevada a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.

Chase Diamond

Washington St vs. Nevada
Play: Nevada +4

This game features the 0-1 Washington State at the 1-0 Nevada. We hit Rutgers big week one as they won outright over Washington State I just think this team is way over rated the only thing keeping this from being a bigger play is that Wash St is in must win mode tonight and Nevada really has not been tested as they beat Southern Utah in Game 1. The public has pushed this from a PK all the way to a +4 for Nevada usually a recipe for disaster and gives us huge value in Nevada. 76% of the public are Riding the road Wash St. here I'll take Nevada plus the points.

DAVE COKIN

SAN DIEGO PADRES AT COLORADO ROCKIES
PLAY: COLORADO ROCKIES -120

Nothing on the line this weekend at Coors, with the Padres and Rockies just playing out the season at this point. But I can see a couple of decent reasons to ride with the home team tonight.

I’ll start with the pitching. Eric Stults got hot for a stretch, but he seems to be morphing back into the normal version of Eric Stults once again. The lefty has started to struggle with his command once again. That’s not good anywhere, but it can’t be worse than it is at Coors. Stults is capable of righting the ship, but off his most recent efforts, that’s not something I feel can be counted on.

I like what I’m seeing from Rockies rookie Tyler Matzek. The Colorado lefty has been doing well lately. Matzek is not a potential ace, but he can certainly find his niche toward the back end of the Rockies rotation. There’s not much set on this team as far next year’s starters are concerned, so these late campaign starts are big for guys like Matzek. I sure don’t mind backing him in his present form.

The Padres have gone back into an offensive funk, scoring three or fewer runs in eight straight games. No doubt playing night games at Petco is a contributing factor, but this is not the production one wants to see out of a team as it heads to a ballpark where if you can’t score, you’re very unlikely to win.

Matzek is outperforming his base numbers by a bit and his metric chart is slightly superior to that of Stults. It’s an even bigger margin if we focus on just the last few starts. Add in a clear offensive edge for Colorado. The bullpen advantage is with the Padres, but that’s not enough to offset what I believe are some fairly clear cut comparative wins for the home team. I’ll side with the Rockies tonight in the small chalk role.