Sam Martin
Pittsburgh at Boston College
Prediction: Under
Both Pittsburgh and Boston College rolled in their openers against over-matched competition, with Pitt scoring a huge 62-0 blowout win against Delaware, while BC blew out UMass by a 30-7 final score. Both offenses will have a much harder time this Saturday, and we'll look for this one to stay well under the posted total.
Neither team did much through the air, being able to rely on their running game against weak defenses, but that lack of passing will hurt them on Friday night. Pitt only went for 92 yards passing while BC went for 173. Obviously, both teams are rush-heavy offenses, but they won't have nearly the same type of success this week against a pair of stop units that only gave up 7 points combined last week. Both teams running almost exclusively means the clock will also be running at all time, resulting in less total plays and possessions. Not sure who take this game outright, but either way we look for a low scoring affair!
Jimmy Boyd
Colorado Rockies -118
I think the Rockies are showing outstanding value as a small home favorite against the Padres. Colorado is coming off a home series win over the Giants, which saw them score 26 runs on 37 hits. With the way they are swinging the bat, there's plenty of reason to be excited about coming to the park even though they are out of the playoff race. The Padres on the other hand come in on a 2-game losing streak and are a miserable 26-42 on the road.
Colorado will send out Tyler Matzek, who has really looked sharp here of late. Matzek has a 2.18 ERA and 1.209 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The Padres will counter with Eric Stultz, who is 2-9 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.376 WHIP over 15 road starts and comes in with an awful 1.687 WHIP over his last 3 outings.
Solid system here on Colorado. Teams with a money line of +125 to -125 off a win of 6 runs or more over a division rival, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 108-70 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 61% system in favor of the Rockies.
Dave Price
Cleveland Indians +119
The Indians are showing value at this price at home. There's no denying how good Sale has been for Chicago, but he has a 5.33 ERA versus the Indians and has been rocked the last two times he's started in Cleveland. The White Sox are just 2-10 in Sale's last 12 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Indians are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a home underdog. They are also 21-9 in their last 30 matchups with Chicago, including 10-2 in their last 12 at home in the series. House has been solid, especially at home where the Indians have won each of his four starts this season.
Nelly
Milwaukee Brewers over St. Louis Cardinals
Mike Fiers has been Milwaukee's best pitcher in August and early September with five straight quality starts, allowing just seven earned runs in 35 innings while striking out 41 against just six walks. Milwaukee has lost nine in a row while St. Louis has won six in a row, creating a four-game lead in the NL Central despite Milwaukee leading the way all season. Last night St. Louis held on for a 3-2 win to open this series but the Cardinals needed six relievers to seal the game as Michael Wacha went just three innings in his return. Ryan Braun is expected to return tonight for the Brewers while the Cardinals may not have Matt Adams in the lineup. The Brewers faced John Lackey in his first start with St. Louis with some success and Lackey has allowed four or more runs in half of his six starts since the move to the NL. His road ERA with St. Louis is 7.50 with a 1.92 WHIP and Miller Park can be tough on opposing pitchers, particularly those that are vulnerable to surrendering home runs. While it is not easy to back a team on a great slide this is a make-or-break game for the Brewers to stay in striking distance of St. Louis and this line is basically begging for St. Louis action. Fiers has been as good as it gets outside of Clayton Kershaw in the last month and he should put the Brewers back in the win column.
Joe Williams
Boston College +4.5
Pitt looked awfully good in dismantling Delaware last weekend in the home opener, but how will the Panthers respond on the road. They appear to have a high-flying offense, but the competition will be much stiffer in Chestnut Hill Friday. Boston College did enough to pull away from UMass last week, but they too will find the competition quite a bit stiffer this week. Both teams ran the ball well in big wins last week, but quarterback questions remain in Week 2. Chad Voytik for Pitt and Tyler Murphy for BC are still rather unproven. This one could be relatively close, mainly because BC is at home. It's hard for a new QB (Voytik) to go on the road and grab a win, especially when one of his top targets (WR Tyler Boyd) is banged up. Boyd dislocated a finger last week, and he is a question mark as to how effective he will be.
Wunderdog
St. Louis @ Milwaukee
Pick: St. Louis +114
What can be said about the Milwaukee Brewers? Their season has all been factored by a 20-7 start. They have been a pedestrian team since then, and right now they are feeling the pressure with nine straight losses, and just two wins in their last 14 contests. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals seem to always find a way to get into the playoffs, and have taken control in the rugged NL Central. These teams are on different paths with Milwaukee dropping nine straight and the Cardinals bearing down at crunch time with six straight in the win column. John Lackey has won 13 times this season and owns a 2-0 lifetime log vs. Milwaukee. St. Louis is manhandling the Brewers as they are 41-19 in the last 60 meetings including 21-8 here in Milwaukee. All St. Louis in this one.
Doug Upstone
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -117
Play Against road underdogs like St. Louis with with a money line of +100 or higher, with an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher, whose WHIP is 1.000 or lower over his last five starts. Here the rationale is the favored pitcher can slow down the opposing offense and lead his team to victory. Since 2010, this MLB system is 52-14, 78.8 percent and besides, Milwaukee has to win eventually and this looks like a good spot.
Jack Jones
New York Yankees -115
The New York Yankees (72-66) are still fighting to try and get that final wild card spot in the American League. They are four games behind Detroit for that final spot, and they will be treating every game like a must-win from here on in.
New York sends its best starter to the mound tonight in Michael Pineda. The right-hander has been dominant when he has been healthy enough to pitch, going 3-3 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.907 WHIP in eight starts this season. That includes a 2-0 mark with a 1.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in three home starts. Pineda is also 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.885 WHIP in three career starts against Kansas City.
James Shields is the ace of the Royals' staff and a solid starter, but he's getting too much respect from the books here. The right-hander is 12-7 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.240 WHIP in 29 starts, but just 1-1 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.474 WHIP in his last three starts. Shields is 9-16 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.331 WHIP in 30 career starts against New York. In his last start against the Yankees on August 25th, he gave up six earned runs and 13 base runners in 6 2/3 innings of a 1-8 loss.
The Royals are 0-4 in their last four vs. AL East opponents. Kansas City is 0-4 in its last four games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Yankees are 6-1 in their last seven home games. New York is 42-18 in its last 60 when its opponent allows two runs or less in its previous game. The Yankees are 76-32 in the last 108 meetings, including 41-13 in the last 54 meetings in New York.
Steve Janus
Miami Marlins -118
This is a great spot to back the Marlins at home as a small favorite. Miami is going to be highly motivated after dropping their last 2 at home. It's also important to note that the Marlins trail Atlanta by 5 games for the final Wild Card spot. They have to at least take 2 of 3 in this series or their chances of making the postseason are all but over.
I really like the edge that the Marlins have on the mound in this one. Miami will start Jarred Cosart, who has been lights out over his last 3 starts. Cosart hasn't allowed more than 1 earned run during this stretch, giving him a 0.87 ERA and 1.161 WHIP. Atlanta will start Aaron Harang, who has not looked good of late. Harang has a 4.66 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Harang has also had major problems against the Marlins. He's got a 5.92 ERA and 1.674 WHIP over 18 career starts. Cosart on the other hand is a perfect 2-0 against the Braves with a 0.64 ERA and 1.143 WHIP.
Key Trends - Atlanta is 4-11 in their last 15 road games against a team with a winning home record, 3-8 in their last 11 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 1-8 in Harang's last 9 starts. Miami is 8-1 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series and 5-1 in their last 6 as a favorite of -110 to -150.
System - Any team (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings are 199-143 (58%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO +107 over Pittsburgh
In its biggest series of the year against a struggling Cardinals club, Pittsburgh lost all three games to run its losing streak to four. Mentally, the Pirates can’t be in a good state of mind and now they have to go into Wrigley and play against one of the hottest teams in baseball. Vance Worley comes in with a 6-4 record and 3.01 ERA but we’re not buying any of it. Worley’s swing and miss rate is a measly 5%. Over his last three starts, it’s even worse at 3%. Over his last 31 innings, Worley has 28 strikeouts but that low swing and miss rate says it’s not going to last. When he faced Milwaukee two starts ago, Worley was tagged for 12 hits in six innings. His BAA of .271 does not support his 3.01 ERA. Under the hood, Worley has nothing impressive going for him. His luck will turn for the worse sometime soon and when you start this low, there is very little margin for error.
Chicago just swept Milwaukee and it wasn’t a fluke. The Cubbies have won 12 of 18 and they’re ruining dreams along the way. Everything is falling right for the Cubbies. They’re getting strong pitching, they’re playing outstanding defense and they’re scoring runs with timely hitting. The Cubs are also taking the lead early in almost every game, which takes pressure off their starter. Tsuyoshi Wada had an elite 2.52 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in August. A 24% hit rate and 86% strand rate drove those marks, but his skills were solid nonetheless: 7.8 K’s/9, 2 BB/9 and a 40 groundball rate. Wada is a risk because he’s been prone to giving up jacks but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that here. This wager is all about playing the scorching hot Cubbies at a price against a dejected Pirates team with an overpriced starter going.
WASHINGTON -1½ +100 over Philadelphia
The finish line is near and the Nationals lead just keeps increasing. With a 7-game lead, Washington can virtually put away the Braves with a strong run over the next seven to 10 games. What better way to start then to have Stephen Strasburg facing Jerome Williams and the Phillies. Strasburg should be licking his chops at the prospect of facing the Phillies in Washington. Over the past two seasons, he has absolutely dominated them. Last year in three starts, Starsburg posted a 0.39 ERA and 0.61 WHIP against this opponent. In four meetings this season against Philly, Strasburg has posted a 1.40 ERA. And these performances have come with full skill support, as he has pure sick numbers against Philadelphia over the past 49 innings.
Jerome Williams is riding a string of four consecutive decent outings but his charmed life is hanging by a thread. Williams has been at his worst in road games, yielding a .300 BA and a 5.89 ERA. Williams’ career dominate start/disaster start split of 30%/24% shows that he's not succeeding as a starting pitcher. Williams has a BB/K split of 10/15 over his last four starts covering 27 innings. He doesn’t miss bats and he doesn’t stay ahead in the count. The odds of a step forward at this age (32) are minimal and even worse against a Nationals team that smells bloods, that has hit well at home with a .733 OPS, which is tied for 3rd in the league.
Arizona +150 over LOS ANGELES
We have no idea who is going to win this game but what we know for sure is that Dan Haren’s chances of losing are greater than his chances of winning. Dan Haren cannot be in this price right now over anyone. Haren has seen his groundball rate decline more than any other starter from the 1H (40%) to the 2H (28%). In his last start, Haren struck out three batters in six innings. A decline in strikeouts combined with a significant increase in fly-balls is a sure sign of a pitcher in peril. Haren’s arm has been tiring for three years running and the signs say it’s never been more tired than it is right now. Fading Haren at this price is nothing but true value and we’re all over it.
When Arizona acquired Vidal Nuno for Brandon McCarthy at the 2014 trade deadline, many thought of the deal as a salary dump for the Diamondbacks. Nuno has brought some considerable return on investment, however, as he's posted a 3.23 ERA and solid command over 10 starts in the desert. Nuno's control makes him a reasonable target: Nuno's greatest skill is pinpoint control (BB/K split of 38/109 in 139 IP) and it should stay that way given his elite first pitch strike rate. His xERA of 3.36 over his last five starts says he's been much better than his ERA would suggest. Nuno's 4.46 year-to-date misleading ERA is improving with every start as his second half gains with Arizona are certainly worth noting. We'd like to see him sustain the 2H gains over a larger sample but he’s a pitcher right now that offers up tremendous profit potential in the final month.
LT Profits
Baltimore vs Tampa Bay
Pick: Under 7
It looks like a nice pitching duel when southpaw Wei-Yin Chen and the Baltimore Orioles visit Alex Cobb and the Tampa Bay Rays. Cobb is quietly pitching great ball right now allowing two runs or less in 10 consecutive starts, posting a 1.55 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 67 strikeouts in 63.2 innings vs. just 17 walks in this span! He is 9-7 while getting little support this season, but with a 2.98 ERA and 128 strikeouts vs. 39 walks in 133 innings. Chen is 14-4 for the Orioles, although his ERA is a mediocre 3.83. Still, he has had nice command with 116 strikeouts vs. 28 walks. His biggest weakness has been allowing 22 home runs allowed, but the Rays are 26th in the majors in home runs with 100, and only 29 are off of lefties. The ‘under’ is 21-8-2 in the Rays’ last 31 games as favorites.
Rocketman
Toronto vs Boston
Pick: Toronto -102
The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox on Friday night in Game One of this three game weekend series. Toronto is 72-67 overall this year while Boston comes in with a 61-79 overall record on the season. Toronto is now 16-6 this year after 3 or more consecutive wins. Boston is 5-15 this year at home when the money line is -100 to -125. Boston is 29-41 at home this year. Toronto has won 5 games in a row heading into tonight's action. Toronto is allowing only 2.4 runs per game their past seven games overall where they are allowing opposing teams a combined .203 batting average. Drew Hutchison gets the call for the Blue Jays where he is 9-11 with a 4.47 ERA overall this year and 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA his last 3 starts. Hutchison has 143 strike outs compared to 51 walks this year. Allen Webster is 3-3 with a 6.69 ERA overall this year, 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA at home this season and 0-2 with a 9.42 ERA his last 3 starts. Webster has more walks than strike outs this year with 23 walks and 21 strike outs on the season. Toronto is 17-8 at Boston the past 3 years including 6-0 at Boston this year. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!
David Banks
Pittsburgh -4.5
Two former Big East rivals coming off of easy opening non-conference wins now open up their ACC seasons on ESPN Friday night when the Pittsburgh Panthers (1-0, 1-0 ATS) visit the Boston College Eagles (1-0, 1-0 ATS) at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, MA at 7:00 ET. While both teams romped in Week 1, it bears mentioning that neither team was tested while not beating all that much. Boston College beat one of the worst FBS teams in the country in Massachusetts 30-7 on a neutral field in Foxboro, while Pittsburgh trounced an FCS school in Delaware 62-0 at home. This is the first time the teams have met since 2004, as BC left the Big East for the ACC after that year. Pitt is in its second season in the conference after going 3-5 in ACC play in its inaugural season last year.
It seems a tad surprising that the Panthers have been installed as road favorites for this contest, as they are one of the youngest teams in the conference while relying heavily on sophomores at all three of the offensive skill positions. With that said, one of those sophomores James Connor rushed for 153 yards and four touchdowns while keying a running attack that accumulated a whopping 409 rushing yards vs. Delaware. Still, you must remember that was against an FCS opponent and Connor will now be going up against a Boston College defense that ranked 18th in the country in rushing defense last season allowing a mere 55.0 yards per game on the ground on a scant 2.5 yards per carry, and the Eagles return their best run-stopper in Connor Wujciak and also welcome back another good one in Mehdi Abdesmad after he missed the last nine games last year with a torn patellar tendon. Thus, young Connor does not expect to have the same success here that he had last week, which means that sophomore quarterback Chad Voytik will need to show more through the air after completing just 9-of-13 passes for 84 yards in the opener. Granted much of that had to do with Pittsburgh running the ball with ease, but now asking the youngster to open things up a bit in his first road start may be asking a tad much. The third member of the sophomore trio, wide receiver Tyler Boyd, had just two catches for 18 yards.
The main reason the Eagles are home underdogs is because they lost the nation's leading rusher Andre Williams and one of the nation's more underrated quarterbacks Chase Rettig to the NFL. However, unlike Pittsburgh, Boston College has a senior quarterback to step right in with Florida transfer Tyler Murphy, who is more of a dual threat quarterback than the pure pocket passer Rettig was. Murphy put all of his skills on display vs. UMass as he was an efficient 17-for-24 for 173 yards and one touchdown throwing the ball and added 118 rushing yards on 13 carries with another touchdown on the ground. Murphy gives the Boston College offense a different look this season and that offense amassed 511 total yards in the opener. Again, the Eagles did not beat much but at least it was still an FBS opponent, albeit a bad one. The defense should continue the strong play of last season as besides the aforementioned run-stoppers, the entire starting secondary also returns.
Boston College is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game, while Pittsburgh is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a straight up win.
Larry Ness
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
The Texas Rangers played in back-to-back World Series, losing to the Giants in 2010 and the Cards in 2011. Those days seem ?light years? away and it?s just 2014. Texas has lost SIX in a row (longest active losing streak) and at 53-87, owns MLB?s worst record. Texas is also MLB?s biggest ?money-burners,? ranking dead-last in the moneyline standings at minus-$3,368 (some $700 worse than Boston, which ranks 29th). However, heading into last night?s game with Seattle, Texas had won NINE of the first 15 meetings with its AL West rivals.
The Mariners took no prisoners last night though, winning 10-2. While the Seattle Mariners have had their share of problems with the lowly Texas Rangers, it hasn't happened with Hisashi Iwakuma ((13-6, 2.90 ERA) on the mound. He has won both starts against the Rangers this year (1.69 ERA) and looks for his 14th win and fifth in a row Friday night in Arlington. The Mariners have captured his last five starts, with the right-hander going 4-0 with a 2.70 ERA. Iwakuma is 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA in seven starts vs the Rangers these last two seasons (Seattle is 5-2) and he's 6-1 with a 3.06 ERA in 10 road outings in 2014 (Seattle is 8-2) as he tries to match Felix Hernandez for the staff lead in victories with 14.
Standing in his way are the pathetic Rangers, who had the ball to Scott Baker (3-5, 5.23 ERA). He was originally scheduled to pitch Thursday before he was pushed back one night due to a stiff neck. Baker gave up two runs over 6.1 innings to earn the victory in last Friday's 13-6 rout at Houston and is looking to win three straight starts for the first time since June 29-July 23, 2011, with Minnesota. That hardly seems likely, as he owns a 5.80 home ERA in 2014 (12 appearances but just two starts) and he?s 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA in 10 career starts against the Mariners (teams are 5-5), who he last faced over three years ago.
Scott Delaney
I'm taking the Atlanta Braves as my free play tonight, and I want you listing both Aaron Harang and Miami's Jarred Cosart, as I like the pitching rematch in this one. These two just met on Aug. 30, and Harang lasted 5.2 innings, allowing just three earned runs while scattering seven hits. He took the loss, and will be out for revenge.
Harang hasn't been all together great the past month - in August, basically - but has shown his old prowess throughout the season and will be needed for the Braves to make a run into the postseason.
I know Cosart has allowed two earned runs in 27.2 innings (0.65 ERA) over his last four starts, so that just means the due theory kicks in here and he could struggle.
3♦ ATLANTA