Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 6

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati
The Reds look to build on their 6-1 record in Mike Leake's last 7 home starts with the total set at 9 to 10 1/2 runs. Cincinnati is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-130)

Game 901-902: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 13.876; Cubs (Rusin) 14.779
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+100); N/A

Game 903-904: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.244; Philadelphia (Lee) 13.602
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-115); Over

Game 905-906: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Capuano) 15.295; Cincinnati (Leake) 16.878
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-130); Over

Game 907-908: Washington at Miami (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Haren) 15.930; Miami (Fernandez) 15.092
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 5
Vegas Line: Miami (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Under

Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 14.498; St. Louis (Kelly) 15.848
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Over

Game 911-912: Colorado at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 14.202; San Diego (Smith) 15.123
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-105); Under

Game 913-914: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Corbin) 14.223; San Francisco (Petit) 15.385
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105); Over

Game 915-916: Boston at NY Yankees (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 17.009; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.565
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Under

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.822; Baltimore (Feldman) 16.446
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-170); Over

Game 919-920: Detroit at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 15.622; Kansas City (Shields) 16.469
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Under

Game 921-922: Toronto at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 15.174; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 16.040
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Under

Game 923-924: Houston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 14.248; Oakland (Griffin) 15.889
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-260); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-260); Over

Game 925-926: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Garza) 15.335; LA Angels (Wilson) 16.493
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-105); Under

Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at Seattle (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 15.828; Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.652
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Under

Game 929-930: NY Mets at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 15.539; Cleveland (Kazmir) 16.901
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-155); Under

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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Pick: San Francisco GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Diamondbacks are 6-18 in their last 24 road games vs. a right-handed starter and face righty Yusmeiro Petit, who has been sharp with a 2-0 record and a 3.12 ERA. He has a 2.57 ERA against Arizona. The Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record and face struggling lefty Patrick Corbin, who has a 1-2 record and a 6.98 ERA his last three starts. Corbin endured a rough outing as he suffered his fifth loss of the season Sunday afternoon against these Giants. The left-hander yielded five runs on nine hits and one walk while striking out six over five innings of a 9-2 defeat. Corbin has allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last four starts and now has a 4.43 ERA in 42+ innings against San Francisco. And the Diamondbacks are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings.

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Boston Red Sox -103FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston will send one of their best pitchers in the rotation to take on Andy Pettitte and the New York Yankees. Felix Doubront has been lethal this season, posting a 3.66 ERA and a 10-6 record in his 25 starts. He does not skip a beat when on the road, posting a 5-2 record in 12 starts with a 3.82 ERA. In those 12 road starts the Red Sox are 8-4 as a team.
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Andy Pettitte is 4-4 this season in his 12 home starts. His 4.63 ERA in those games will give Boston the opportunity to put up some early runs. The Red Sox have been on fire, scoring six runs per game with a .291 batting average over their past seven games. The Yankees lineup as struggled against left-handed starters, posting a .248 batting average and scoring 3.9 runs per game.

Bryan Leonard

Toronto Blue Jays -120

R.A. Dickey has had a lot of mixed results since coming back to the American League, but he has made adjustments since the All-Star Break and has been a very solid pitcher over his last seven starts. He'll face a Minnesota Twins lineup that is extremely young, with the exception of Josh Willingham, and has very little experience against the knuckleball. Mike Pelfrey will take the mound for the Twins.

Dickey posted a 3.07 ERA over 44 innings in the month of August. The biggest change for Dickey has been his control. Since July 1, Dickey has a 3.08 K/BB ratio after a 1.9 K/BB ratio over the first three months of the season. Dickey dealt with neck and back issues in the first half of the season, but the All-Star Break gave him a chance to relax and get some treatment and it has shown up in his numbers. His ERA is over 1.2 runs lower, his K/BB ratio has gone from 1.96 to 3.35 and that has led to better success. The Jays are playing pretty well right now because of their starting pitching and a veteran guy like Dickey wants to keep that trend going and continue to be a leader for his team. He has also fared much better on the road this season with a 3.35 ERA compared with a 5.21 at home. His slugging percentage against is 121 points lower on the road. Current Twins position players have just 23 plate appearances against Dickey, and that's scary for a team that has little familiarity with knuckleballers.

Mike Pelfrey continues to be hittable with questionable control for the Twins. Pelfrey has registered just 81 strikeouts in 133.1 innings of work, giving him the 10th-lowest K/9 of any pitcher with 100 innings or more pitched this season. Pelfrey has a 1.66 WHIP in 12 home starts this season. The Jays still have a pretty good offense without Jose Bautista and it gives some guys the opportunity to show management what they can do without the team's best hitter. Pelfrey's 4.86 ERA is accompanied by a 4.77 SIERA, which means that he's pitching about as well as a guy with his skill level can pitch and that's clearly not very good.

Pelfrey underwent Tommy John surgery last season and is now up into the 130s in innings pitched. It's about this time that we start to look for fatigue from guys that missed a bulk of the previous season. Pelfrey had his velocity in his last start, but told the media earlier this week that his arm feels dead on some days. That's not a good sign for Pelfrey and the Twins.

Rob Vinciletti

Texas Rangers -104

Texas has won 10 of 12 vs LA this season as they have Dominated Division play. Overall in the series Texas has won 7 of the last 8 here in Los Angeles. Texas is averaging 5 runs per game vs Leftys and 5.6 runs vs Division opponents. LA has C.J. Wilson on the mound and while he has been good at home. He has been mediocre vs Texas with an 8.63 era. M. Garza goes for the Rangers and he has won both starts vs the Angels this season. Texas has the benefit of a day off in this one and should rebound from the 11-4 loss they suffered to Oakland on Wednesday. There is also a league wide system here that plays against home teams like the Angels that are of a home dog loss and scored 4 or less runs vs an opponent like Texas that is off a road loss by 5 or more runs. Backed with the system and the indicators above we will. Take Texas tonight.

Nick Parsons

Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 7½

If the Bucs want to reach the 82 win plateau, they're going to have to try to get past the home side's red hot starter.

The Cards need to string some wins together but face a tough task tonight vs. the visitor's competent veteran hurler.

AJ Burnett (7-9, 3.09 ERA)

Burnett beat the Cardinals last week, giving up one run off four scattered hits with a walk, while striking out six.

The 36-year old has now given up just one run and gone at least seven innings in five of his last eight trips to the bump.

Joe Kelly (7-3, 2.82 ERA)

Kelly gave up one run over six frames to beat the Pirates 7-2 last Sunday.

The 25-year old gave up two walks and four hits while striking out five.

The right-hander has now won four straight starts and hasn't allowed more than two runs in any game in that span.

Kelly sports a decent 3.66 ERA home record and great 4-2, 2.29 ERA "night game" mark.

The Bottom Line

Burnett is actually 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA in five starts vs. the Cardinals this year.

Kelly is a perfect 7-0 with a tiny 2.16 ERA in ten starts since joining the rotation in early July.

There is a lot riding on this series for both clubs, but with these two sizzling starters facing off in the opener of this three-game set, runs definitely look to be at a premium.

Consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

Bruce Marshall

Central Florida at Florida International
Pick: Central Florida

Someone should have told FIU AD Pete Garcia that his new HC Ron Turner was past his sell-by date nearly a decade ago when fired at Illinois, as suggested by Maryland calling off the dogs in 3rd Q of opening romp at College Park. And it’s no easier this week for outmanned FIU vs. confidence-soaring UCF and dart-throwing QB Blake Bortles (314 YP & 3 TDP in Akron romp). George O’Leary also not about to waste a trip to recruit-rich Miami for ascending Knights.

JR O'Donnell

Philadelphia -110

Cliff Lee -the lead as the new look Phillies have a little left in the tank tonight. The Phillies will get to Minor and the Bravos tonight @ CBP. These ATl Braves (85-54) are cruising by 14 games over Washington in the East and now they face a hurler in the" Lee ster" who is 11-6, 3.09 ERA has gone 5-2 with a 1.73 ERA in his last 8 trips to the hill. Major Vegas Respect ball game to these Gritty Phllies at a pick or -110 ...The Bravos are the sexy play... Phils are 75% prop winner in their last 8 games following a loss. Short Sweet and Powerful on the Phillies.

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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston College/ Wake Forest Under 48.5: Neither offense will set the world on fire this year, which should really keep the scoring down in this one. Tanner Price threw for just 219 yards last week on 14 of 25 passing and that is not very good numbers vs a low tier FCS opponent. The Eagles on defense had a bit of a slip the last 2 years, but they have 10 starters back this year and will be a solid group. Villanova did put up 355 yards on them in their opener, but just 14 points, so BC tightened when they needed to. The Deacon defense was solid in their opener and should be able to shut down a BC team that will lack offensive punch this year. Neither QB is all that good and both teams will end up relying more on the run than the pass this year, which will eat clock. 4 of the last 5 between these teams put up 48 or less points and the one that didn't had 48 points scored in regulation, before OT pushed it over that number. I look for a tough defensive battle in Chestnut hill.

Rocketman

Tampa Bay @ Seattle
Play: Seattle +100

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays travel to Seattle to take on the Mariners on Friday night. Tampa Bay is 1-5 this year on the road when the total is 7 or less. Tampa Bay is only 2-6 their last 8 games overall. Tampa Bay is scoring only 2.7 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have a team batting average of only .237. Seattle is allowing only 3.1 runs per game their past seven games overall. Two good pitchers here tonight with Tampa Bay and Cobb and Seattle and Iwakuma. Iwakuma is 12-6 with a 2.87 ERA overall this year, 5-3 with a 2.98 ERA at home this season and 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA his last 3 starts. Iwakuma has a 3.00 ERA in his one start vs Tampa Bay in his career where he pitched six solid innings. We'll recommend a small play on Seattle tonight!

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Central Florida at Florida InternationalSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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If you read our College Football Article this past weekend, you know that games involving favorites have gone under the total 11 times in 17 chances in the opening week, including a perfect 5-0 Under in the non-Saturday games. We took the Under in yesterday's Florida Atlantic vs. East Carolina game, won by the Pirates 31-13 but falling well short of the 59-point total. That makes it a perfect 6-0 Under for favorites of 21 or more points playing non-Saturaday games, and we look for that trend to hold true tonight in the Central Florida vs. Florida International matchup. UCF is rightfully a big favorite in this game and Florida Int only managed 10 points on 171 total yards against Maryland last week. Not sure how much UCF can score on the road, Florida Int won't contribute much in terms of points and we look for another low scoring game here.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota TwinsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Toronto Blue JaysFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jays are out of it but have been playing better lately, 7-3 in their last 10. Part of that has been because knuckleballer R.A. Dickey has finally been performing with an ERA under 3 in his last three starts. He has been better on the road all season long and draws Minnesota who has a weak lineup now missing Justin Mourneau. Twins starter Mike Pelfrey has been getting shelled at home with an ERA over 5 making this the kind of situation that looks good from both sides. Also, while the Jays have been showing signs of life the Twins are just playing out the string.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St Louis CardinalsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: St Louis CardinalsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This weekend is the last chance for the Cardinals to beat the Pirates themselves, as the National League Central's top two teams face off for the final time this season beginning tonight at Busch Stadium. Burnett tossed seven innings of one-run ball against Cardinals on Saturday in Pittsburgh. The veteran righty is going for his fourth win of the season against the Cardinals, who have hit only .188 against him in five prior starts -- a mark that swelled to .310 in two Busch Stadium meetings. The Pirates have a 3-10 road record in Burnett's 13 road starts TY. No one on the Cardinals' staff has been better over the last two months than right-hander Joe Kelly, who gets the ball in Friday's opener. Kelly has won his last seven decisions, and the Cards are 9-1 in his starts since he moved into the rotation. He tossed six innings of one-run ball against the Pirates on Sunday and now is 6-0 vs. the NL central. Outfielder Carlos Beltran is a .286 career hitter (12-for-42) with 11 RBIs in his career against Burnett, while Carpenter is hitting .400 (8-for-20) against Burnett. Saint Louis will win this series and it starts off tonight and will continue on with Wainwright on Saturday.

Justin Bay

Central Florida vs. Florida Int
Play: Over 53

Look for Central Florida to come out strong again in Week 2 with a very potent offense against an FIU team who started 13 freshman last game. FIU was blown out by Maryland in Week 1 so I look for them to come out motivated at home and put up some points.