Steve Janus
Miami Marlins -133
The Marlins might not be worth backing a whole lot down the stretch, but anytime ace Jose Fernandez takes the mound they are worth a serious look. Miami, who is 34-games under .500 are 16-10 in Fernandez's 26 starts this season and a dominant 11-2 when he takes the mound at home. Fernandez has a 2.33 ERA and 0.996 WHIP overall, but has an incredible 1.29 ERA and 0.869 WHIP at Marlins Park. There's simply too much value here to pass up.
Washington has been playing better here of late, but they have lost both of Dan Haren's last two starts and the veteran is a mere 3-7 with a 4.29 ERA on the road this season (3-10 team record 13 starts). Haren's 6.89 ERA and 1.468 WHIP over his last three starts only add more value to this play.
Fernandez is 7-0 over his last 7 home starts when he allows 2 or less earned runs in his last start, while Haren is 0-7 in his last 7 road games with a money line of -125 to +125 (Washington is currently listed at +120-+125).
MLB Predictions
St Louis Cardinals +100
The Pirates and Cardinals will meet for a weekend series as they battle it out for 1st place in the NL Central. The Pirates took 2 of 3 vs Milwaukee this week to hold their position at the top of the division, while the Cardinals lost 3 of 4 in Cincinnati. These two teams met last weekend in Pittsburgh, with the Pirates taking 2 of 3 but St Louis winning when tonight's starter, Joe Kelly, took the mound. Kelly is 7-3 on the season with a 2.82 ERA. At home he is 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA, as a starter he is 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA (compared to 4.26 ERA out of the bullpen) and since the All Star break he is 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA. He has started twice vs Pittsburgh, both on the road, and he has allowed just 1 run over 12 innings of work. The Pirates will send A.J. Burnett to the mound who is 7-9 on the year with a 3.09 ERA. Although he has a 2.32 ERA at home it rises to 3.89 on the road where he is just 3-6. St Louis has seen Burnett 5 times this year, and although Burnett has pitched stellar vs them at home, he has allowed 7 earned runs over 10.1 innings of work in St Louis where the Cardinals are hitting .310 against him. Take note that the Cardinals are 9-2 when Joe Kelly takes the mound, while the Pirates are just 11-14 when Burnett starts. Pittsburgh is 5-12 in their last 17 games as a road favorite, 1-6 in Burnett's last 7 road starts, and 1-4 in his last 5 road starts as a favorite. The Cardinals have struggled recently on the road, but they are 6-2 in their last 8 home games, 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog, 5-0 in Kelly's last 7 home starts and 7-0 in his last 7 starts overall. This is a huge series for St Louis at home, and I like getting them as an underdog vs Burnett who doesn't pitch as well on the road and lasted just 4.1 innings in his August 15th start in St Louis.
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BOSTON COLLEGE (-3) 24 Wake Forest 17SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Wake Forest applies to a pretty solid 65-27-4 ATS early season conference road dog angle but that’s not enough to get me siding with the Demon Deacons in this game. Wake Forest only averaged 5.3 yards per play and couldn’t run the ball (3.9 yards per rushing play) against a Presbyterian team with one of the worst defensive units in the FCS last season (they would have allowed 8.6 yards per play on the road against an average FBS team). Wake Forest was a 37½ point favorite and only won by 24 points despite being +4 in turnover margin. That was a horrible performance but I decided not to adjust my ratings at all because their opponent was impossible to take seriously and the coaching staff was probably preparing for this game during last week’s practices.
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Boston College didn’t cover the spread either in their 24-14 win as a 15 point home favorite against Villanova, but the Wildcats are one of the better teams in the FCS and would only be about 7½ points worse than an average FBS team, which is barely worse than Wake Forest. Boston College gave up a few big runs but played pretty well defensively otherwise while Eagles’ veteran quarterback Chase Rettig lit up the Nova defense for 9.5 yards per pass play and zero interceptions in new coach Steve Addazio’s offense. My ratings before adjusting for last week’s games had Boston College by 9 points and I still get 9 points after adjusting BC’s ratings for last week’s game. It would be more if I adjusted Wake Forest’s ratings for their horrible performance against Presbyterian and I think the line on this game is way too low as I see the Boston College as clearly the better team. However, that 65-27-4 ATS situation that favors Wake Forest will keep me from playing BC, although that angle only applies to Wake Forest at +3 or more, so I’ll consider Boston College a Strong Opinion at -2½ points or less and I like the under (the posted total is 48½ points).
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CENTRAL FLORIDA (-24½) 37 Florida International 16VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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UCF is coming off a 38-7 win over Akron while Florida International lost 10-43 at Maryland. Those disparate results have skewed the line, as I favor UCF by just 16 ½ points based on my ratings, but I also don’t want to play the Panthers here given that Central Florida applies to a 113-38-2 ATS big favorite momentum situation. I’ll lean with my ratings over the situation
Dave Price
St. Louis Cardinals +101
The Cardinals are showing value at this price at home with Kelly on the hill. The Cardinals are 7-0 in Kelly's last 7 starts, and he has given up 1 earned runs or none in 7 of his last 9 starts. The Cards are also 5-0 in Kelly's last 5 home starts and 7-0 in his last 7 starts versus division opponents. He has a 1.56 ERA versus NL Central foes this season. Pittsburgh's Burnett hasn't been as sharp on the road where the Pirates have dropped 10 of his 13 starts this season and he's posted a 3.89 ERA. The Pirates are 1-6 in his last 7 road starts. Burnett was rocked in St. Louis last month. Kelly, on the other hand, has won both of his starts versus Pittsburgh this season while giving up just 1 run. Take St. Louis.
Wunderdog
Washington at Connecticut
Pick: Connecticut +3.5
The Washington Mystics have far exceeded expectations off a five-win season a year ago, while the Connecticut Sun have limped their way to a 7-22 mark. Despite a losing record with just five games to play, the Washington Mystics have done enough to be playoffs bound in the weak WNBA East. The Mystics have won just six times all season on the road. Washington has had two losing streaks of four games or more, so they are far from a sure thing against anyone. The Sun lost their home game to the Mystics by just 4 points, and have a double revenge situation here, which should give them a lift at home. Play on Connecticut.
John Ryan
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
At the beginning of the season, this looked to be a big time playoff implicated series between to long-time rivals. However, injuries, have almost single handedly erased the Phillies from playoff contention in late June. They are playing many Triple-A players and the bullpen has been bolstered with minor league talent. This play is squarely based on LH starter Cliff Lee and my strong belief that he will dominate the Braves lineup tonight. Atlanta is just 4-16 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 150-108 mark and has made a whopping 67 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play on home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start and stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season. The line has been at pick-em, but public money is starting to come in steadily on the Braves serving to make the Phillies a modest +105 dog. This play is still valid, even if the above system is not based on any money flows causing Philadelphia to be favored. The research ALWAYS serves to reinforce the play graded by my simulator. Take Philadelphia.
Jeff Alexander
Baltimore Orioles -167
The White Sox have lost 7 in a row, and I expect their slide to continue with Danks getting the ball. The are 2-7 in Danks' last 9 starts, 2-8 in his last 10 road starts, 2-9 in his last 11 starts versus AL East clubs, 3-18 in his last 21 Friday starts and 1-7 in his last 8 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. The O's are fighting hard for the final playoff spot in the AL, and they should feel good about sending Feldman to the mound. He's been dialed in, giving up 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 4 starts. The Orioles are 4-1 in Feldman's last 5 starts versus losing clubs.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee -117 over CHICAGO
Despite having a 2.74 ERA through nine starts this season, there are several warning signs surrounding Chris Rusin and his start here against Milwaukee. Rusin's 4.30 xERA indicates regression may be on the way and this is supported by poor command and a very average skill set. A 33%/22% pure quality start/disaster start also confirms the fact that there's more risk in this start than Rusin's surface stats may lead you to believe. Rusin has made just four starts at home this season and the Cubbies have lost them all. Over his 21 home innings pitched, Rusin has allowed 24 hits, walked nine and struck out 12. Rusin also has a BAA of .282 at Wrigley. Additionally, the Cubs’ 28 wins at home is the NL’s worst mark and second worst mark in the entire league, ahead of only the Astros.
Offensively, the Brewers are so much more dangerous than the Cubbies. When we look at Milwaukee’s batting line-up it’s somewhat crazy that this team is 19 games under .500. They are loaded with quality hitter’s from top to bottom and should have little trouble scoring a few against Rusin. The same can’t be said for the Cubs against Kyle Lohse. In 171 innings this season, Lohse has walked 33 batters. His outstanding control and knowledge of hitter’s make Lohse a valuable asset. In 28 games started, Loshse has lost just eight times. He comes in with a solid 3.32 ERA and 19 pure quality starts. Remember when Lohse wasn't attracting any interest from free-agent suitors last offseason? Clearly, major league teams had doubt about his ability to match his five-year performance in St. Louis. But at 34, he's been a rock in an otherwise turbulent Brewers rotation. Lohse’s pure-quality start/disaster start split is strong and shows he's a stable bet to avoid blow-ups. The same can’t be said for Rusin.
N.Y. Mets +145 over CLEVELAND
In the traditional sense, a quality start is awarded to a starting pitcher that allows three runs or less in six innings or more. That’s about as simplistic a stat as it gets and tells is very little. You often hear us mention a pure quality start and here’s the criteria for that:
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he does not get a quality start.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he gets a pure quality start, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
We point this out because Scott Kazmir has just 10 pure quality starts in 24 attempts this season. Kazmir is just as likely to throw a six-inning gem as he is of getting whacked like he has in so many other games this season. In a recent two game stretch against the A’s and Angels, Kazmir faced a combined 43 batters and induced just three groundball outs against 30 fly-ball outs. His 15% soft-hit balls rate is one of the worst marks in the majors. As a dog, Scott Kazmir may have some value but as a significant favorite in September, after missing the past two years, he has zero value.
Houston +245 over OAKLAND
We’ll absolutely take our chances with the Astros at this price against a team that struggles to score and against a very average pitcher in A.J. Griffin. Griffin is never a safe bet. In his rookie season last year he threw just 82 innings and he’s more than doubled that already this year. A sign of fatigue is issuing walks and Griffin has now walked 17 batters over his past 29 frames. Over his last five starts, Griffin has posted a 3.45 ERA but his xERA over that span is 5.18 due to a very fortunate strand rate of 84%. A.J. Griffin has one of the highest fly-ball rates in the majors and as a result, he’s allowed 33 jacks this year, which is also one of the worst marks in the game. Sure, Griffin could come up aces again here against a weak hitting road team but in no way can he and the A’s be trusted spotting a tag like this one.
The Astros have been giving the A’s some trouble. Houston came in here last night and took the opener against Sonny Gray and has now won four of the past six meetings with the A’s. That alone makes them worthy of a wager here at this price. Dallas Keuchel has become bet-worthy for the first time in his career. He features solid command and a nice groundball tilt of 54%. Keuchel’s pitch mix has evolved as follows: +9% four-seam fastballs, -7% two-seam fastballs, -7% cut fastballs, +17% sliders, -8% curveballs, -4% change-ups. He's another guy who has benefited from using his curveball less and slider more. Hitters have a .471 BA and .765 SLG against his curveball, compared to a .224 BA and .408 SLG against his slider. Keuchel’s low 18% line-drive rate is further proof that this guy has already begun to figure things out. Dallas Keuchel holds some tremendous profit potential down the stretch and we have no reservations about backing him here.
SPORTS WAGERS
EDMONTON +3 over Calgary
This is rematch week, as every matchup this week is the same as last week with only the venues being different. Edmonton goes from being an 8-point road dog last week to a 3-point home dog this week but this one certainly has a different feel. The Eskies trailed 37-7 with about 10 minutes to go in the fourth quarter last week before a miraculous rally that pulled them within 3 points with about 3½-minutes to go. Edmonton got the ball back with a chance to tie or win it but once again, they fell short. The Eskies have now lost five in a row by a combined 15 points. They’ve lost each of their past three by three points each. That’s the positive. The negative is the effect of losing five winnable games in five weeks and putting themselves in a big hole with a 1-8 record.
Edmonton has yet to win at home this year. Last week we suggested that Edmonton was so close to going on a run to put them back in the playoff picture but a lot has happened since that Labour Day Classic in Calgary. Edmonton’s GM, Ed Hervey had a meltdown this week. At Tuesday’s press conference, the Eskies were called out and singled out by their general manager. From players through to the coaching staff, everyone was put on notice. Most notably there’s Simeon Rottier, the right guard that Hervey very clearly exiled on Tuesday, insisting he would not play on Friday and that he’d be fine if Rottier didn’t play another down of football this season. The entire offensive line was shamed by Hervey at this week’s press conference because of the beating that QB Mike Reilly took last Monday. Reilly was sacked seven times and they weren’t just sacks or hits. Said offensive lineman Thaddeus Coleman, “These are huge hits. These aren’t regular tackles, these are like, crushing hits, bone-crushing hits. I was surprised. I was proud he (Reilly) got up, he showed his toughness. He made me proud. What can you say about the guy? He’s tough, tough as rocks.”
Things change from week-to-week and one has to wonder what affect the public lashing by their GM will have on them. One also has to wonder about the effects of all those hits that Reilly took just five days ago. The Eskies may dig down deeper than ever in support of their tough-as-nails QB or they may play in fear of making a mistake and play worse. It’s for that reason that we’re going to sit this one out. We know the Eskies have the talent to string together some victories. We’re just not sure if this is the right time to step in on them because of all the chaos of the past few days. Calgary has a vicious defense that will bring the heat again and the Eskies could find themselves in another big hole here. Still, Edmonton is too good to be 1-8 and if you held a gun to our head we would take the home points. In the end, however, it’s a recommended pass. Again, NO BETS.
Craig Davis
Friday's free play winner is the Yankees over the Red Sox.
I can't count the number of times Andy Pettitte and Felix Doubront have faced off when the Yankees and Red Sox get together. But here we have it again tonight, and I do know this... the last time these two hooked up, Pettitte got the better of Doubront and I expect it to happen again tonight.
Pettitte has been pitching much better of late, but earned a no decision in his last start after the bullpen blew his lead.
That's been quite an issue for the Yanks lately, including last night's 9-8 extra innings loss to the rival Red Sox.
Mariano Rivera was one strike away from getting Mike Napoli out, but surrendered a single in the top of the 9th. Then a pinch runner stole second and advanced to third on an E2 throw.
Then having Stephen Drew down to his final strike, Rivera left an inside cutter up a little too high and Drew singled to right, tying the game and forcing extra innings when the Yanks failed to score in the bottom of the frame.
It was the sixth blown save for Rivera this year but his first vs. Boston at home since 2010... and it prevented the Yankees getting to within a game-and-a-half of the Rays for the final Wild Card spot. Having said that, I don't see Pettitte putting the Yankees in that situation tonight.
Pettitte (10-9, 4.01 ERA) is 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA over his last four outings, and there aren't many pitchers I'd rather have on the hill in September and October than Pettitte.
He began this streak beating Doubront and Boston, 10-3, back in August by tossing seven innings of nearly perfect baseball, allowing only three unearned runs in the win. Vs. Boston this season, Pettitte is 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA in three starts.
Felix Doubront (10-6, 3.89 ERA) allowed seven runs over four innings in that 10-3 loss and now owns a career 4.41 ERA against the Bronx Bombers.
Take the Yankees to win a must-win game.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie also happens to be a total, as I play the Braves and Phillies to hold Under the total from the City of Brotherly Love.
Series numbers show 4 of the last 5 meetings played between these division rivals as having stayed Under the total. Included is a 4-1 Braves win in early August in which Cliff Lee opposed Alex Wood.
Lee's numbers against the Braves have been quite respectable, as the veteran southpaw has gone 5-2 with a 1.73 ERA the last 8 times he has faced Atlanta.
Mike Minor will be making his first start against the Phils this year, and Minor comes into this start riding a 2-0 run his last 4 starts, but his ERA of 5.16 is in need of some work.
Keep in mind that Minor had been on a 3-1 run with a 1.74 in his previous 6 starts prior to his recent ERA trouble.
Going to look for Minor to settle in tonight against a Phillies team that is on a 3-1 Under run, as Minor and Lee do battle deep into the night tonight.
Braves and Phillies to hold Under the total on Friday.
3♦ ATLANTA-PHILADELPHIA UNDER
Brad Wilton
My free play for Friday is the Over in the Red Sox-Yankees game.
Plenty of late inning fireworks last night from New York (6 runs in the bottom of the 7th), as Boston and New York combined for their 4th Over in their last 5 meetings this summer.
I know southpaws Felix Doubront an Andy Pettitte have been blowing hot their last few trips to the mound, but I have a feeling they will not be as dominant as they have been in tonight's starts.
Doubront was actually pretty shaky his last time out, giving up 4 runs in under 4 innings of work against the White Sox, and his last start against the Yankees on August 16th saw 6 earned runs score in just 4 innings pitched.
Each of Doubront's last 4 starts have all ended up playing Over the total.
Pettitte is 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his 3 starts against Boston this year, but with the Red Sox having come up with 7 runs or more in 4 of their last 6 games overall.
It was a long one last night in the Bronx, I think it will be another long one tonight at Yankee Stadium.
Take the Over in the Red Sox-Yankees contest.
3♦ BOSTON-N.Y. YANKEES OVER
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is on the Arizona Diamondbacks getting it done over the San Francisco Giants, as I think the Snakes will slither into the Bay Area and steal this win. And make note, I want you listing both pitchers: Diamondbacks southpaw Patrick Corbin (13-5, 2.96 ERA) and Giants right-hander Yusmeiro Petit (2-0, 3.12).
Don't sweat the fact Corbin has allowed 13 earned runs over a combined 10-1/3 innings in his last two starts, it doesn't matter. Corbin, who is 2-2 with a 4.43 ERA in seven career starts against the Giants, and he's going to be out for revenge from a previous outing against Frisco and Petit, this past Sunday. The Giants roughed him up pretty good, getting him for five earned runs and nine hits in five frames. Tonight it's revenge time.
San Francisco has lost 20 of its last 29 home games, so I'm riding the wave of momentum for visiting teams and listing both. Take the Diamondbacks and list both.
1♦ ARIZONA
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees, and I want you listing both Felix Doubront and Andy Pettitte, as this is a pitching rematch from not too long ago, and Doubront will want revenge.
All drama aside, that which comes with these two playing in September and/or October, this one is purely focused on the pitchers, who just met Aug. 16 in a 10-3 romp at Fenway Park, where the Yankees outslugged the Crimson Hose with 15 hits. Now I think the Sox will be out to return the favor.
Doubront turned in two straight strong outings before getting roughed up for four runs in 3-2/3 innings the last time he hit the field, against the Chicago White Sox. The 25-year-old left-hander is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA in 11 career games (seven starts) against the Yankees, including a 2-1 mark in three starts this season.
I think his team will have his back in getting revenge for the Yankees' 10-run outburst last month, as the Red Sox have stroked 10 home runs in their last two games, have won three straight and 10 of their last 12. Boston now has command of the best record in the American League. Tonight I think the Sox will tee off on Pettitte.
Take the Yankees here.
4♦ BOSTON
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is on the Washington Nationals over the Miami Marlins, and I want you listing both Danny Haren and Jose Fernandez, cause I'm baffled that this phenom is getting as much respect as he is, and laying -140 to the team that was favored to win the National League in the preseason. I know the Nats have flopped, but they can still hit the ball and are much better than the Fish.
Yes, Fernandez recently had a personal five-game winning streak snapped - last Friday to be exact - and yes he is 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 13 starts at home.
But here's the deal, as part of that run, he has six solid innings against Washington opposite Haren earlier this year. Don't think for a moment the Nationals' right-hander has forgotten about it. He'll be out for revenge.
He'll also be out to avenge being hit hard Saturday against the New York Mets. The veteran right-hander was tagged for seven runs and nine hits in a mere 2-2/3 innings and his ERA soared over 5.00. To his credit, however, Haren did throw six scoreless innings at Miami on July 13 and owns a 2.98 ERA in seven games (six starts) in his career against the Marlins.
I like the Nats tonight, with Haren
4♦ NATIONALS