Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday September, 7

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego PadresFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Arizona DiamondbacksFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego pitcher Andrew Cashner is too liberal with walks, allowing 19 free passes in 36+ innings and the Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Diamondbacks are also 8-3 in their last 11 road games and go with Tyler Skaggs (2.60 ERA), a good young arm who the Padres have never seen before. And the Diamondbacks are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in San Diego. Play the Diamondbacks.

Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota TwinsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Minnesota TwinsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The 58-79 Indians are at Minnesota for game 1 of their 4 game Series with the 56-81 Twins on Friday. The Indians give the rock to 5-7 Gomez while 0-7 Hendricks gets the nod for Minnesota. Gomez starts his day with a 5.08 ERA Overall giving up 45 earned runs in 79.7 innings of work and allowing 28 BB's while striking out 41. On the other side of the diamond, Hendricks begins the day with a 6.11 ERA giving up 38 earned runs in 56 innings pitched allowing 16 BB and recording 36 K's. The Indians are 5-21 in Their last 26 Road Games against Right Handed Starters and 3-12 in their last 15 games against American League Central Clubs. Also, 1-5 in their last 6 during Game 1 of a series. The Twins are 7-1 in their last 8 Head to Head Meetings. The Twins win easily Tonight.

Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Astros at RedsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: OverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston (42-95) has seen the Over go a decisive 18-7-2 in their last 27 road games when a big underdog in the +151 to +200 price range. The Over is also 13-4-2 in the Astros' last 19 games against fellow teams from the NL Central. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, the Over is 3-0-1 for Houston. They send out Harrell who is 10-9 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this season. But while Harrell has a 2.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .236 opponent's batting average when at home, he sees these numbers skyrocket to a 5.10 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and .264 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Astros' last 8 games with Harrell facing a team from the NL Central. To compound matters, Harrell has now pitched 165 innings this season which is a career high for him -- so his arm may be tiring. Houston is only 14-55 on the road this year -- and Cincinnati (83-55) has played 8 straight games Over the Total at home against teams with losing record on the road. The Reds counter with Bailey who is 10-9 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP this year. But Bailey has not been as effective at home in the Great American Ballpark where he has been saddled with a 5.58 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and .319 opponent's batting average. Cincy has played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total with Bailey pitching against a team with a losing record. The Over is also 13-3-1 in the Reds' last 17 games with Bailey pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. And in Bailey's last 7 starts against the Astros, the game finished Over the Total in 5 of these meetings. Take the Over in this one while listing both starting pitchers.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota TwinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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On Friday the Free MLB Power System Play is on the Minnesota Twins. Game 974 at 8:10 eastern. This game fits a tight 12-3 system as seen below, that plays on home favorites off a road dog loss and scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent like Cleveland also off a road dog loss, while scoring 3 or less runs on 4 or less hits. The Twins have won 40 of the last 57 as a home favorite from -125 to -150 and are averaging 6 runs per game the past week. Cleveland appears to have packed it in and has trouble even with losing teams, as they have dropped 14 of the last 17 vs fellow mediocre teams. The Twins have Hendricks on the mound tonight and he has a decent 4.15 home era this season. He will oppose Gomez here and he has an elevated 5.09 road era and has been hideous of late with a 6.59 era over his last three starts. Look for Minnesota to take game one of the series tonight.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Texas Rangers
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Big game between contenders tonight in Tampa Bay. My edge goes to Derek Holland to get the best of Jeremy Hellickson, so the play tonight is the Texas Rangers.

Steve Merril

Philadelphia Phillies -1½

The Rockies come to Philadelphia to begin a series on Friday night against the Phillies. Colorado lost three of four games in Atlanta in their last series after scoring just 7 total runs. Now they will have to contend with Cliff Lee who has allowed 4 runs and 21 hits in his last three starts coming against the Braves, Reds, and Nationals. He gave up 3 runs and nine hits in six innings back in July against the Rockies, but that game was at Coors Field. Tyler Colvin (2-10) and Ramon Hernandez (3-12) have had their struggles against the southpaw. Colorado is 13-25 against left-handed starters and they are hitting right around .240 on the road as a unit.

Jeff Francis is 5-4 with a 5.73 ERA in 18 starts for the Rockies. He is coming off a 6-run and 10- hit effort at home against the Padres. Francis got a no-decision in Philadelphia earlier this season, but that was against a limited lineup. Overall, he is 2-1 with a 5.55 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies. Kevin Frandsen (3-9), Juan Pierre (18-42), Jimmy Rollins (7-15) and Nate Schierholtz (2-3) have good numbers against the Rockies’ starter. Philadelphia has won five of their last seven games while scoring nearly 5 runs per game in the process. Colorado has lost seven of their last nine games in Philadelphia including two of three games this season. We expect the Phillies to win this game rather easily so we’ll lay the runs against the Rockies on Friday night.

NellyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tim Lincecum has rocky season numbers with a 5.21 ERA but he has pitched much better in recent weeks. He has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts, allowing just four runs in the one outing that he allowed more than three runs. He still has elite strikeout numbers with 162 strikeouts in 157 innings and he has allowed jus three home runs in his last seven starts. Lincecum has been a far better pitcher at home with a 4.01 ERA and while the Giants have a poor record behind Lincecum they have won his last two starts against the Dodgers with right-hander allowing just one run over nearly 13 innings. The Giants have pushed the NL West lead to 4.5 games making this a more critical series for the road Dodgers but this team is 8-12 in the last 20 games and the offense has scored five or fewer runs in 10 of the last 11 games.

Andrew LangeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona at San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Diego 1st HalfFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Prior to his trip to the DL, San Diego's Andrew Cashner showcased some of his highly touted ability with 45 strikeouts in 36.2 innings and a .214 batting average against. Cashner suffered a strained right lat but the fact that San Diego will allow him to start as oppose to pitch him out of the bullpen suggests he's close to 100% healthy. Note that he’ll be on a 70-pitch count. Arizona's Tyler Skaggs has made only three starts but some of his numbers show that he's been very fortunate. His ERA sits 2.60 but xFIP is a whopping 5.66. The differential has a lot to do with his miniscule .204 BABIP and whopping 90.4% left on-base. Small sample and Skaggs has some upside, but from a pure stuff standpoint, tonight's matchup favors Cashner. With Cashner not expected to go deep into this game, let's look to support him and San Diego on the 5-inning line.

Sean MurphyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Yankees vs. Baltimore
Pick: BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We missed the mark with the O's in this exact pitching matchup last Saturday, as the Yankees rallied from a late 3-1 deficit to notch a 4-3 victory.
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Of course, wins have been few and far between for the Bronx Bombers these days. New York is just 5-11 over its last 16 games, and now sits tied with Baltimore for top spot in the A.L. East.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Orioles are the epitome of a 'play-on' team right now, having won 10 of their last 13 games overall, and playing with a 'nothing to lose' mentality, even as they sit in the thick of the playoff race.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's going to be awfully tough to derail a Baltimore club that has scored 38 runs in its last five games, not to mention boasts a pitching staff that owns a 2.86 ERA over its last 10 contests. Contrast that with the Yankees, who are hitting a miserable .199 as a team over their last 10 games, to go along with an inflated 5.26 staff ERA.
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Yankees starter Phil Hughes has been anything but consistent on the road this season, where he's 3-8 with a 5.03 ERA. The Yanks have come away victorious in just three of his 12 road outings to date. They've also dropped two of his three starts against the Orioles, even though all three came at Yankee Stadium.
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Wei-Yin Chen will counter for the Orioles. He's been quietly getting the job done this season, having gone 12-8 with a 3.79 ERA, with that number lowering to 3.45 here at home. Chen brings solid form to the table tonight. He's given up three earned runs or less in three of his last four outings, and over his last two starts, he's allowed just eight hits while posting a 12:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 1/3 innings of work.
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There's really no comparison between the two bullpens in this matchup. The O's have a significant edge in that regard, just as they do in virtually every department at this moment in time.

Joe GavazziFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore -110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These 2 are tied for the division lead, but NYY and Baltimore have opposing momentum. While the Yankees have faltered at 5-11 and 2-6, Baltimore has surged to the top on runs of 25-11 and 10-3. The Birds have won 8/12 in this series of late and 9/11 at this series site. Chen has been Baltimore's most consistent pitcher with a record of 12-8. In 3 outings vs. NYY Chen has a solid 3.26 ERA. The Yankees counter with Hughes who has a 5.40 ERA in 3 games in New York vs. Baltimore this season. But at this site, in 4 appearances, Hughes has an 8.20 ERA against the Birds. While the linemaker and public perceive our opponent to be a lock for the playoffs the reality is that we have a play on team that is every bit as good and playing with outstanding momentum!

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers -108FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit's Max Scherzer is flat out dealing. The Tigers have won each of his last 6 starts, and he hasn't allowed more than 1 earned run in any of his last four. The Tigers are 16-5 in Scherzer's last 21 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record and 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a favorite.
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LA's Ervin Santana has looked better over the last month, but he hasn't been nearly as sharp as Scherzer. He has struggled at home all season, going 3-6 (4-7 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.76. He has been hit hard in both of his starts versus Detroit this season, and the Angels lost both of those as a result. He gave up 8 runs in 13 innings spanning the two starts. Scherzer, meanwhile, is 2-0 against LA this season, giving up just 2 runs in 14 innings. Dating back to last season, the Angels are 4-9 in Santana's last 13 home starts. They are also 1-6 in his last 7 home starts versus a team with a winning record. Take the Tigers.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals -135
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The St. Louis Cardinals should be a much heavier favorite at home over the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. I'll take advantage of this discounted price and back the Cardinals Friday.
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St. Louis (74-63) still has a lot to play for as it sits 1.5 games ahead of both Pittsburgh and Los Angeles for the final Wildcard spot in the National League. Milwaukee (67-70) is basically eliminated from postseason contention.
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Kyle Lohse has been dominant all year for St. Louis, and he is clearly the ace of its staff in 2012. Lohse is 14-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 7-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 13 home starts.
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Yovani Gallardo has just been average this season for the Brewers, going 14-8 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.315 WHIP in 28 starts. The right-hander is also 6-5 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in 12 road starts this year.
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The Brewers are 16-43 in their last 59 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Milwaukee is 6-20 in Gallardo's last 26 starts as an underdog. The Brewers are 1-8 in Gallardo's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 14-3 in Lohse's last 17 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet St. Louis Friday.

Harry BondiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UTAH -7 over Utah StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Utes have dominated this series, winning the past 12 meetings, including the past six on this field by an average score of 38-7. Tonight's game has the potential to be much closer since the Aggies are much improved and are coming off their first winning season in 14 years. But, make no mistake about it, Utah is still a class above its intra-state rival and now that Utah State is showing a little fight, the Utes come into this game with even more focus than usual. Utah has a huge edge on defense as it return 7 starters, including one of the best players (and names) in all of college football, defensive tackle Star Lotulelei. Utah State, meanwhile, lost a few major cogs from its defense a year ago and will be overpowered tonight against a veteran Utes offensive line that is bigger, better and more experienced than last year. Lay the points.

Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Mariners -138FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland just got swept at home by the Angels and things get no easier tonight when they go up against Seattle ace Felix Hernandez. The Mariners are 8-2 in Hernandez's last 10 starts, 5-1 in his last 6 home starts and 6-1 in his last 7 starts as a favorite. The Mariners are 16-5 in Hernandez's last 21 starts vs. the Athletics, including 5-1 in his last 6 home starts vs. them.