Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds -1.5 +102
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The Reds have won 9 of 12 meetings with Houston this season and 8 of those wins have come by a minimum of 2 runs. The Astros are 10-52 in their last 62 overall while the Reds are 39-17 in their last 56 overall. Plus, Cincy's Bailey is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.29 in 7 career starts versus the Astros. The Reds have won 5 of his last 6 starts versus the Stros and each of those 5 wins came by at least 2 runs. Bet the Reds on the run line.
Jeff Scott SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah State/ Utah Over 51: Utah will be a very good defensive team this year, but nothing like they displayed in their 41-0 rout of FCS opponent Northern Colorado. The Utes do have 7 starters back from last year, but will be taking on an explosive Utah State offense that averaged 33..6 ppg overall last year, including 37.3 ppg on their home field. The Aggies have 6 starters back on offense from that team and they could be stronger this year, despite losing their top 2 RB's. For the Utes they are going to be very strong offensively this year as they have 9 starters back, including QB Jon Hays, Top RB John White (1500 yrd and 15 TD's last year and their top 6 pass catchers that combined for 15 TD's a year ago. Overall Utah has 26 of 32 lettermen back from last years offense that totaled 25 ppg and they should be able to post a good amount of points vs a Utah State team that allowed 27.9 ppg last year and they lose 5 starters and 3 of their top 6 tacklers from that team. Both offenses come into this year vs well stacked and both should have very good showings in this huge rivalry game that could see 60+ points put up on the board.
SPORTS WAGERS
Texas +102 over TAMPA BAY
After an emotional series against the Yanks, things don’t get easier for the Rays against the Rangers. Texas is batting .287 with an .845 OPS over the last two weeks and over that same stretch Ranger pitching has compiled a 3.31 ERA. Derek Holland is in fine form with an elite August that saw him put together an elite month in August in terms of skills. Both his groundball and strikeout rates were higher than any month. A 57% strand rate resulted in an inflated 4.73 ERA that month. Digging deeper, he's one tweak against RH bats away from becoming a top-tier starter. With a 63% groundball rate against lefties, Holland is so close.
Tampa Bay pitching is, of course, solid, and the Rays own a sparkling 2.89 ERA at home. However, Jeremy Hellickson continues to defy the odds. Everything about this guy screams mediocrity, including his low strikeout rate and average groundball rate of 40%. His 4.46 xERA is the real story and while his luck could hold up longer, we know for sure we’re going with the best of it by taking back a small tag with the better offense and pitcher.
MLB Predictions
Baltimore Orioles -106
The Orioles took Game 1 of an all important 4 game series with the New York Yankees to move into 1st in the AL East. The Orioles have won 6 of their last 8 games, while the Yankees have lost 6 of their last 8. Tonight's pitcher for New York is Phil Hughes who is 13-12 on the season with a 4.18 ERA, but was lit up his last time out, which just happened to be against the Orioles. At Yankee Stadium the Orioles had 8 hits and 5 earned runs off Hughes in just 5 innings of work. Hughes has a 3.56 ERA at home, but it is a high 5.03 on the road where he is just 3-8. Wei-Yin Chen is pitching for Baltimore and he is 12-8 on the season with a 3.79 ERA. He went 6.2 innings giving up 4 hits and 3 earned runs against the Yankees in his last time out. Chen is a touch better at home going 6-4 with a 3.45 ERA. The Yankees are just 3-8 in their last 11 road games, 3-7 in Hughes' last 10 starts as a road underdog, and 0-5 in his last 5 road starts overall. The Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 home games, 5-2 in Chen's last 7 starts, and 7-2 in his last 9 home starts vs a team with a winning record. Take the Orioles to win again tonight.
San Francisco Giants -114
Both teams enter tonight off of two straight losses. The Dodgers send Josh Beckett to the mound who is 6-12 on the season with a 5.03 ERA. In time spent with the Red Sox and Dodgers he is just 3-7 on the road with a 5.16 ERA. Although Beckett had a good start his last time out, he had a 8.59 ERA in 4 August starts and a 6.08 ERA in 5 July starts. Tim Lincecum takes the rubber for San Fran and he is 8-14 on the year with a 5.21 ERA. Although those numbers don't look good, Lincecum is 5-4 with a solid 3.26 ERA since the All Star break. He is also a better pitcher at home where his ERA is 4.01 (more than 2 points lower than the road). Take note that the Dodgers are just 5-14 in their last 19 vs NL West opponents, while the Giants are a solid 11-4 in their last 15 vs divisional opponents. The Giants are also 11-5 in their last 16 overall, and 5-0 in Lincecum's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. The Dodgers aren't scoring many runs lately, with just 2 5+ run games over their last 11. On the other hand the Giants have scored 5+ runs in 6 of their last 8. Giants are 6-2 in Lincecum's last 8 home starts vs the Dogers. Take the Giants to win tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -105
The Colorado Rockies have scored just 7 runs in their last four games, with 6 of those runs coming in one game. With cold bats one of the last pitchers you want to see is a Cliff Lee who is pitching well. Lee has a 1.31 ERA over his last three starts, which includes 7 shutout innings in his last start in Atlanta. Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis is coming off a rough outing where he allowed 10 hits and 5 earned runs against in just 3.2 innings of work. While the Rockies bats are cold, the Phillies have scored 31 runs over their last 6 games (5.2 runs per game). The Phillies have won 5 of 7 and are 6-1 in Lee's last 7 starts as a home favorite of -201 or more. The Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs Colorado and overall are 37-18 in their last 55 meetings. I like the Phillies to win by a handful of runs tonight, and will take them on the run line.
Chuck O'Brien
Another free winner last night, as I told you the Yankees/Orioles game was going into double digits with ease. How about 16 runs worth? My free-pick run is now a 105-67-2 and tonight I'm looking to improve on that number with the Seattle Mariners against the visiting Oakland Athletics. It's a bit of price, yes, but $1.40 is not that expensive when Felix Hernandez is taking the hill.
The southpaw-ace finally received the wake-up call he needed, as he suffered his first loss since June 12 in a 5-2 setback to the Halos last Saturday. Neevertheless, he is still 9-1 with a 1.62 ERA over his last 15 starts. He should be at this best tonight, given it's a Friday at Safeco, and that generally brings the home faithful to 1st Avenue South.
Hernandez, who is 13-5 with a 2.63 ERA in 25 career outings against the A's, is 1-1 in four starts against Oakland this season, with a 3.10 ERA. He faces A.J. Griffin, who admittedly has been a bright spot for the Athletics, going 4-0 in nine starts. I'll roll with the due theory in this one, as he's bound to lose at some point.
Take the Mariners, and go ahead and list Hernandez in this game. Don't worry about listing Griffin, however.
3♦ SEATTLE
Craig Davis
I'm on a 71-51 comp play run and today you're telling me I can have Felix Hernandez, pitching at home, at -140 tonight against an Oakland team that's lost three in a row?
I'm on it.
I know King Felix lost on Saturday to the Angels, giving up five runs in 7.1 innings. But he had gone 9-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his 14 prior starts and that's good enough reason for me to back him tonight.
Hernandez has OWNED the A's over the years. with a 13-5 record and 2.63 ERA in 25 starts. This will be the fifth time he's faced them this year. He's got a 3.10 ERA in those outings.
Oakland rookie A.J. Griffin has won his first four starts and carries a 2.26 ERA into the contest, but with the Mariners 7-6 in the season series and on an overall run of 14-7, I can't ignore Hernandez at this cheap price.
3♦ SEATTLE
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Dodgers as they take on their division-rival San Francisco in what the Dodgers hope will be a three game weekend sweep.
Regardless, a Los Angeles sweep still won't vault them into first place, but it will put them right back in the thick of things.
The road team in this series has pulled off back-to-back sweeps, as the visitor has claimed the last six series meetings. Going to stick with that trend, as Josh Beckett gets a crack at the Giants for the first time in years, and Beckett is coming off his first win in a Los Angeles uniform.
Beckett is 1-1 in his pair of L.A. starts, and has fanned 15 in his 12-plus innings pitched. Since the Giants haven't see him since the 2005 season, I will give the edge to Beckett in this showdown and look for him to keep his club in this game against the suspect Lincecum.
Lincecum does sport an ERA of just 2.08 the past eight times he has started against the Dodgers, but the fact his ERA for the year is still over five tells me he is no shoo-in to shut the Dodgers down in this big test tonight in the Bay Area.
Dodgers need this one much more than the Giants do, and the Dodgers get it tonight.
Back Los Angeles.
2♦ L.A.DODGERS
Chris Jordan
I've had the Washington Nationals on the Run Line all week, taking them each time, while the Chicago Cubs were visiting the past several nights. Whether I've had them as a free pick or a premium play, and tonight I'm back on them as a freebie.
With a 7-1/2 game lead in the National League East, the Nationals know this is an important time to win. There is a sense of urgency right now, especially with young ace Stephen Strasburg expected to make only two more starts, starting with this game tonight. His last game of the 2012 season will be Sept. 12 versus the Mets at Citi Field.
In his last start, Strasburg (15-6, 2.94) pitched six shutout innings against the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals, allowing two hits and striking out nine to raise his total to an NL-leading 195 strikeouts.
Washington is playing with a must-win mentality right now, and I suspect you're going to continue to see that explosive offense carry into the weekend. Right now the Nats are batting better than .330 with 70 runs during an 8-1 stretch. Tonight I expect nothing less than another big win for the league's No. 1 team, as the Nationals have averaged 7.7 runs per game over their last nine games.
2♦ WASHINGTON -1.5
Matt Rivers
Free play winner on Texas last night, now an 11-5 free play run.
Friday's comp play on the Phillies on the Run Line over the Rockies.
Cliff Lee is looking to end the season strong, and has won back-to-back starts while allowing just one earned run his last 14 innings pitched. He is facing a Colorado team that has been blanked their last two times on the field. It is a Colorado team that has scored just seven runs thus far on their current road swing, as the Rockies are off to a 1-3 start on this swing.
The Phillies have been playing a decent brand of baseball, winning five of their last seven games overall. They will face Jeff Francis who allowed a whopping ten hits, and six runs (five of them earned) in under four innings his last trip to the hill. For the year, Francis sports an ERA of 5.73.
Philadelphia has been able to win seven of the last nine series meetings against Colorado dating back to the 2011 season, and five of the seven Philly wins have come by two runs or better.
With the Rockies bats slumbering, I expect Lee to dominate and the Phils to get a two runs or better win to open the weekend in the City of Brotherly Love.
Play Philadelphia on the Run Line.
5♦ PHILADELPHIA -1.5
ParlayJoe
Pittsburg Pirates
Cubs are 0-8 in Woods last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game and are 0-9 in Woods last 9 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Free Play is on the Pirates tonight