Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, September 9,2011

Marc Lawrence

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: New York Yankees

The Pinstripes and Halos open a three game series in Anaheim where Bartolo Colon matches serves with Jered Weaver Friday night . Colon toes the slab knowing he's in solid KW form with one walk and 16 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 12-4 away in his career team starts during the month of September and 5-1 in his career team starts as a visitor in this park. With Weaver in off a phony 'inside-out' win in which he defeated Minnesota 10-5 in his most recent start last Saturday when he last five innings while allowing eight hits, six runs and three walks, we'll fade the Angels here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Yankees.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

A rivalry game and while the pressure is all on the Giants, they haven't had a good September -- and time is running out. Park of the problem has been ace Tim Lincecum, who is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA his last three starts. San Francisco has a poor offense, 3oth in runs, 29th in on base percentage, and faces LA ace Clayton Kershaw. He has a 1.23 ERA his last three starts and the Dodgers are 8-2 his last 10 starts. The Dodgers are 7-2 in their last 9 road games while the Giants are 2-12 in their last 14 during game 1 of a series. Play the LA Dodgers.

Scott Spreitzer

Atlanta Braves at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

The Atlanta Braves will send Randall Delgado to the bump tonight for his fourth start. The Panamanian righty will get his first look at the intimidating Redbird batting order. And while he hasn't pitched badly, Delgado does put a lot of stress on the bullpen. He's lasted just 4, 6, and 5 innings in his first three starts, and he's yet to pitch away from the friendly confines of Turner Field. The Cardinals will counter with Edwin Jackson. While I didn't agree with St. Louis when they traded away Colby Rasmus for the inconsistent hurler, he has pitched well for his new team. Jackson is 4-2 in eight starts, sporting a 3.44 ERA, including a 3-0 record and a 2.30 ERA in five starts at Busch Stadium. His team is 7 1/2 games behind Atlanta for the wildcard spot, and the Redbirds, who're 9-4 in their last 13, fully understand their only real chance to catch the Braves, (as remote as it may be), is to sweep this weekend series. Albert Pujols and Jon Jay are on fire at the plate and I believe they'll stay that way against Delgado. The Braves are on a 0-4 slide on the road against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, St. Louis is on an 8-3 run against ATL, including a 4-0 streak at home. I'm laying the price with the Cardinals on Friday.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Missouri at Arizona State

Look for Arizona State to have another blowout win in this matchup against Missouri and easily cover the spread, only laying 7.5 points. The Sun Devils didn’t cover their first matchup against a non-board Cal Davis team as they were laying 37.5 points and missed the cover by just 3.5 points, winning 48-14. The Tigers won their first matchup which was against Miami Ohio but also failed to cover the spread as they were laying 19.5 points. They will struggle again tonight and not come anywhere near an ATS cover. Arizona State is 5-1 ATS after a win by 21 or more points and 9-3 ATS in all home games over the last few seasons.

Play on: Arizona State

Steve Merril

Padres vs. D-Backs
Play: Under 7.5

The Diamondbacks continue their time atop the NL West as they host the Padres. Arizona remains one of the hottest teams in the league, but must now face Mat Latos tonight. Latos is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in three starts against the Diamondbacks all-time. He got a no-decision against them back on July 28th giving up three runs and four hits in 5.1 innings. The righty has allowed just eight runs and 13 hits over his last 19 innings of work. Arizona hitters are just 11 for 53 against the Padres’ starter in his career. San Diego’s bullpen has an ERA below 3.00 this season, so they've been able to hold down their opponents. Daniel Hudson has faced the Padres three times this season allowing just five runs and 20 hits over 20 innings of work. He is smoking hot right now allowing just three runs total in his last three starts, while picking up wins over the Giants, Rockies and Nationals. He is 8-4 with a 3.11 ERA in 14 starts at home with eight of them going Under the total. San Diego's hitters are just 16 for 63 against Hudson in his short career. The Padres’ offense is hitting around .210 in their last eight games and they have reverted back to the stagnant offense that we know and love. The Arizona bullpen has been solid at home this season and will be able to hold down a lead if called upon tonight.

Bryan Power

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are rolling right now as they look to sew up the AL Central pennant. They have won six straight games - all coming against their main competition in the division (Chicago and Cleveland) - and are averaging a devastating 9.3 rpg over the last week! Minnesota, meanwhile, has lost five of six and has been shut out in two of those losses while scoring just two runs total in four of them. Detroit has simply owned the Twins head to head this season, taking 11 of 15 meetings, and they again look like a solid investment Friday considering their 52-16 this season as a favorite of -150 or less. Additionally, Detroit is 14-2 after scoring 8 or more runs in BB games. Minnesota is 0-4 so far in starts made by Kevin Slowey this season.

John Ryan

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

5* graded play on the Boston Red Sox as they take on the Tampa Bay Rays set to start at 7:05 PM ET. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that Boston will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 36-20 record making 26.5 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on AL road dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 on the season and facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 on the season. This system has gone an amazing 14-3 making 14.9 units per one unit wagered since 2005. It has averaged a +129.1 DOG play since 1997. Boston finds itself losers of two straight games and trailing the New York Yankees by 2 ? games with 19 games remaining to the regular season. They have done well against the winning teams noting they are 13-3 making 11.2 units per one unit wagered against the money line in road games when playing against a good team winning between 54% to 62% of their games this season. Moreover, Boston is a near perfect ?12-1 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in road games revenging 2 straight losses where team scored 2 or less runs over the last 3 seasons. Take the Red Sox.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Arizona Diamondbacks -158

The D-backs, winners of 14 of their last 16, have the edge tonight against a San Diego club that has dropped 12 of its last 14. Arizona has won 8 of the 12 meetings between the two this season, including 5 of 6 at home. The D-backs are 18-6 in their last 24 home games against the Padres. Arizona has the advantage on the mound with Hudson, who's 8-4 (10-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.11 in 14 home starts this season. He enters this matchup having won his last 3 starts while only giving up a total of 3 runs in 22 2-3 innings. Hudson is opposed by Latos, who is 3-6 (5-8 on the ML) with a 4.05 road ERA this season. The Padres are 2-5 in Latos' last 7 road starts and 0-6 in his last 6 Friday starts. Take the Snakes.

Rocketman

Florida Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Florida Marlins

Pittsburgh is 38-76 last 3 years when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Florida has played better on the road this year with a 35-35 record but are 16 games below .500 overall. Florida bullpen has a 3.44 ERA overall this season. Ross Ohlendorf is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA overall this year and 0-1 with an 8.21 ERA at home this season. Florida has won all 3 meetings in this series this year. Nolasco is 4-3 with a 1.99 ERA in all starts vs Pittsburgh. We'll recommend a small play on Florida tonight!

Rob Vinciletti

Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers

What we want to do is play on certain home favorites off a road dog loss and scored 4 or less runs with 10+ hits vs an opponent coming off a home game. This system has cashed at over 75% the past 8 years. Texas is 17-5 on Fridays and a perfect 12-0 of late in the first game of a home stand. When the total is 8 to 8.5 in their home games they are 14-4. The Rangers average 5 runs per game in divisional play and are scoring over 7 runs per game the past week. Oakland has lost 5 of the last 6 here and has Mccarthy going tonight. In his starts vs Texas he has allowed 16 runs in 15 innings. C.Lewis counters for Texas and he has allowed 7 runs in 19+ innings and has won all 3 starts vs Oakland. With the system, the pitching and the angles we will back Texas her tonight.

BIG AL

Phillies @ Brewers
PICK: Over 6.5

In what could very well be a preview of the NLCS, the Phillies and Brewers face off at Miller Park, and there should be substantially more people in the local viewing area tuning into game two than there were for game one on Thursday. And that's not because the pitching match-up features the two teams' aces, righthanders Roy Halladay and Shaun Marcum. Last night the Brewers had to compete with the Packers and the opening game of the NFL season, but tonight it should be all baseball for this town that has been supporting their team very well this year as they march towards their first division title since they came over to the National League. It looked like Halladay might be on track for 20 wins this season when he left his last start after six innings and the Phillies then took the lead with two runs in the top of the seventh, making Halladay the pitcher of record for his 17th victory if the Phils could just hold on. But their one weakness - their bullpen - showed themselves again and the Marlins came back to win the game leaving Halladay at 16-5 on the year and putting the 20-win mark in serious jeopardy. There have been no shortage of runs when he takes the mound as the over is now 7-1 in Halladay's last eight outings. The over is also 10-4 in the last 14 meetings of these two. Take the 'over.'

Steve Janus

Los Angeles Dodgers +111

I will side with the Dodgers in what should be a classic pitchers duel Friday night. LA will send out Clayton Kershaw against Tim Lincecum. Not only do I give the edge to Kershaw at this point in the season, the Dodgers are playing better baseball than the Giants right now. While neither team has much of a chance, the Dodgers are just 4.5 games behind the Giants in the NL West. San Francisco is in a huge let down spot of the season, as they are coming closer and closer to the realization that they will not even get the chance to defend their World Series crown.

Kershaw has been unbelievable considering the lack of offense in LA. He is 17-5 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.021 WHIP. He has been lights out of late, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his last 3 starts. Kershaw has done extremely well against the Giants, posting a 4-1 record with a 1.44 ERA and 0.878 WHIP.

As for Lincecum, he hasn't got a whole lot of love from his offense either. He is 12-12 on the year with a 2.75 ERA. He has struggled at home this year, going 5-7 with a 3.46 ERA and is just 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in his last 3 starts.

The Dodgers are 13-3 in their last 16 overall, 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road underdog, and 21-7 in Kershaws last 28 starts vs. National League West. BET THE DODGERS!

Dave Price

1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -159

Twins are just 16-35 in their last 51 overall. They're coming off a victory but are only 1-9 in their last 10 games following a win. Plus, they are 0-5 in Slowey's last 5 starts. The Tigers have won 6 in a row, and they have had Minnesota's number. The Tigers are 15-4 in their last 19 against the Twins. We'll take Detroit.

Black Widow

1* on Florida Marlins -113

The Florida Marlins have a big edge on the mound tonight, and we'll back them because of it. While Ricky Nolasco hasn't been dominant, he has been much better than Pittsburgh starter Ross Ohlendorf. Nolasco is 9-10 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in 29 starts, while Ohlendorf is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.941 WHIP in five starts. Few starters have owned the Pirates like Florida's starter has throughout his career. Nolasco is 4-3 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in seven lifetime starts versus Pittsburgh. In his last three starts versus Pittsburgh, Nolasco is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA, not allowing a single earned run in 21 innings while striking out 29 batters. Enough said. Take the Marlins on the Money Line.