Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday August, 13

Hollywood Sports

Cowboys at Raiders
Prediction: Under

Exhibition games see lower Over/Under numbers for good reason since teams tend to stick with vanilla versions of their offenses. With this being the first preseason game for both teams, don't expect starting quarterbacks Tony Romo and Carson Palmer play more than a couple of series. The Cowboys' offense will likely be furthered slowed by the fact they will be playing their first competitive game under the direction of new offensive coordinator Bill Callahan. Dallas scored only 14.2 PPG in the preseason last year. The Raiders' offense is undergoing changes as well with the switch back to a zone blocking scheme after toying with a power scheme last season. Oakland managed only 11.0 PPG in their preseason last year. Lastly, both teams are introducing new backup quarterbacks in Kyle Orton and Matt Leinart. Don't expect too much from either of these signal callers in their first game with their new teams. Take the Under.

Marc Lawrence

Chicago White Sox at Blue Jays
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

The White Sox and Blue Jays meet north of the border in Toronto in the opener of this four-game series Monday night where Jake Peavy takes the mound for the Pale Hose. Peavy enters the contest in pretty much season-long KW form with 68 strikeouts and 9 walks in his last nine starts, while sporting a sharp 2.96 ERA away from home this campaign. Peavy is also 4-0 in his career team starts against Toronto and 13-4 in his last 17 away team starts during August. Simply too many good number to pass here, and we won't. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox.

Ben Burns

Washington vs. San Francisco
Pick: Under

These teams have each played some recent high-scoring games. Including yesterday's results, the Nationals have now seen three straight games finish above the total while the Giants have seen back to back games do so. This figures to be a much lower-scoring affair.

Vogelsong tossed seven shutout innings at St. Louis last time out, allowing just three hits. He's seen the "under" go 13-7-1 in his 21 starts, including a highly lucrative 9-1-1 here at San Francisco. In those 11 home starts, Vogelsong has a superb 1.42 ERA.

While Vogelsong has dominated at home, Gonzalez is 9-2 with a very solid 3.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road. He earned a complete game victory in his last start and has 17 K's with just two walks his last two starts.

This weekend's games notwithstanding, the "under" has been profitable here at SF all season. I expect things to return to "normal" here. Consider the Under.

Brad Diamond

Cleveland vs. Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles

This is a very difficult situation for the Indians, who now must fly from Cleveland to Los Angeles for this Monday night affair. From line standpoint the value appears quite high considering Angels lefty Wilson is coming off his seventh straight win less effort. During the negative run the hurler is 0-3 (5.82), prior to, Wilson was firing hard with a 2.33 ERA and a nice 9-4 record. Opposing Justin Masterson (8-10) has allowed 17 earned runs in his last three outings and still lacks consistency. Overall, believe you will see a bounce-back by Wilson, as the Indians contribute with their 0-6 mark against port side starters. We close with Los Angeles a super 12-5 against losing baseball teams.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have beaten the Pirates 12 of the last 14 times, including the last 4 here. The Dodgers have the pitching edge with Harang over Karstens. Harang has won 14 of 20 vs the Pirates and is 4-0 here in Pittsburgh of late. He has also won 7 of his last 9 road starts in August. Karstens is 1-10 in Home August starts and is 0-3 with an era near 5 vs the Dodgers. Look for Los Angeles to take game one as a live dog here tonight.

Jim Feist

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers won't be returning to the playoffs this season, mired in fourth place in the NL Central, 16 games back of the Reds. The Brewers are on a six game road trip and lost the first two games to the worst team in baseball, Houston. Then they salvaged Sunday's game against the Astros, 5-3. Now they travel to Colorado to play the Rockies for three games. The Rockies lost their second straight game on Sunday and their eighth loss in their last 12 games. The Brewers will send their best pitcher to the mound on Monday in Michael Fiers. Fiers is 6-4 this season in 12 games, but has a stellar 1.82 ERA and 1.025 WHIP. Fiers has been even better on the road with a 2-1 mark, 0.99 ERA and 0.805 WHIP. Fiers has also won his last three starts with a 1.33 ERA. Not such good fortunes for Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis. Francis is 3-4 on the season, but has a lofty 6.06 ERA and 1.492 WHIP. Francis is 0-2 in his last three starts with a 10.80 ERA and 1.971 WHIP. Two teams with not much to play for, but big edge here in pitching to the Brewers and Fiers. I'll lay the short price on the road with Milwaukee.

Dave Essler

Pittsburgh Pirates -125

The first thing that might concern me taking the Pirates is their bullpen, which was used as well as abused over the weekend, and Karstens has only pitched past the sixth inning once in his last ten starts. Harang is usually "just good enough" more often than not, but has historically had trouble with Pittsburgh. What I do find interesting is that he's given up more hits than innings pitched on the road (a by-product of not worrying in a big park, perhaps) but has given up far less bombs on the road. And that is not strictly this year, but also last year when he pitched in another pitcher-friendly park in San Diego. He does walk more than I would like to back, which could be a problem the way the Pirates seem to have woken up at the plate.

Although the Dodgers had a seemingly easy 5-0 game in Miami, they scored four of those five runs in the eighth inning. The good news is that they used little or no bullpen since Capuano threw a two-hitter.

Karstens does not walk many people, hence the great WHIP, but can be prone to giving up the long ball and has given up at least one in his last three starts. He lost to the Dodgers back in April before he went on the DL, so there may be a bit of revenge incentive in there somewhere. He beat them at PNC last year, and he has pitched much better at home this season, and actually last season as well. I do keep coming back to the Pirates bullpen, which prior to pitching well on Sunday had a 5.59 ERA and two blown save last week.

Offensively the Dodgers have been a bit challenged lately, hitting only three home runs and batting .248 last week, so overall we'd have to give the edge to Pittsburgh. I have to believe that mentally, after erasing the five run deficit with a nine run inning probably trumps the Dodgers beating Miami and having to fly 1500 miles. The Dodgers have now won six of nine, but they've beaten the Cubs, Rockies, and Marlins. On Monday they'll have to face a team that still cares and is on an emotional high playing an LA team that's a .500 team on the road (which doesn't actually suck) and they're a .500 team against RHS, and they've hit the least amount of jacks on the road in all of MLB (which may negate Karstens tendency to give them up) so I am betting on the Pirates.

Scott Spreitzer

Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

This is a big series for both teams, but especially the Bucs who have this four game set followed by a three game series in St. Louis this upcoming weekend. I expect Pittsburgh to get off to a winning start. Jeff Karstens has been terrific in four PNC starts this season, posting a 1.33 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and a .229 BAA. He'll take on a Dodger team averaging under 4 rpg in road night games against righthanders. Meanwhile, his team will face Aaron Harang, a pitcher who's been walking too many batters for my blood. Harang has given 14 free passes in his last four starts, spanning 23 1/3 innings of work, an average of 5.41 walks per 9 IP. The Dodgers have won just 2 of his last 9 starts and I expect L.A. to drop another one tonight. The Dodgers are on a 4-10 slide on the road against righties, while the Bucs are on a 20-6 run at home against righthanders. I'm recommending a play on the Pirates on Monday.

Dave Cokin

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Chicago White Sox

Checklist on tonight's White Sox-Blue Jays game gives the road team a small edge right down the line. I'll back Jake Peavy and the Chisox to win this one.

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +115 over SAN FRANCISCO

Key matchup sees these two division leaders squaring off for just their second series against one another this year. In the first meeting, back in early July, the Nats swept the Giants in a three-game set and outscored them 24-12. Washington enters this series with a 10-2 record thus far into August.

Pay no attention to Gio Gonzalez’s rough July in which he posted a 4.59 ERA. It was mostly bad fortune, as his xERA over that span was 3.37. Gonzalez has rebounded in his last two outings with a 17/2 K/BB over 17 innings. Gonzalez has full skill support behind his 3.32 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has 154 K’s in 141 innings, a solid groundball rate of 48% and he has quietly won 14 games, with a 9-2 road mark. The Giants score an average of 3.2 runs per game. If you take out San Fran’s games against the Rockies this year, they average less than three runs a game. Gonzalez should sparkle here against this group.

Ryan Vogelsong continues to defy the odds for the second consecutive year. No matter how you break it down, luck has played a big role in his success. He’s an average pitcher with average numbers. He has 48 BB’s and 105 K’s in 143 innings. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates are also average at 42%/19%/39%. What really stands out is his gratuitous strand rate of 85% and xERA of 4.45. Much like an individual that is winning at the slot machines or Caribbean Stud poker, you cannot violate the mathematical laws of the universe without them catching up to you. Sell high targets don't get any better than Vogelsong.

JR O'Donnell

Washington Nationals +105

The first place Washington Nationals (71-43, 4.5 game lead NL East) visit the first place San Francisco Giants (62-52, 1 game lead in NL West), with two good pitchers on the mound. Nationals send out Gio Gonzalez (14-6, 3.32 ERA & 1.14 WHIP) and G-Men counter with Ryan Vogelsong (10-5, 2.27 ERA & 1.11 WHIP). Gonzalez in his last two starts has gone 17+ innings, both wins and the pitching coach has been limiting him to 100 pitches per outing, which speaks well for his efficiency. He has a almost 3:1 K to BB ratio and is #4 strikeouts and #7 in walks in the NL. Giants counter with Ryan Vogelsong who is 3-1 in his last "5" outings, consistently getting into the 6th inning, and has been the beneficiary of some uncharacteristic big run performances by SF. Nationals are 39-21 on the road, where they score 4.6 r/g while only surrendering 3.2, and Giants are 33-24 at home while scoring a paltry 3.3 r/g and allowing 3.0. Nationals have won "8" of their last "10" and "5-1" on the road, while the Giants are 6-4 and 1-2 at home.

Jesse Schule

Washington vs. San Francisco
Pick: Under

The Nationals arrive in San Francisco tonight to take on the Giants at AT&T Park. Washington is coming off a loss last night to Arizona, as they failed to complete the sweep after taking the first two games in the desert. The loss snapped an eight game winning streak, and the Nationals find themselves comfortably in the lead, 4.5 games up on the Braves in the NL East.

San Francisco will send Ryan Vogelsong to the mound tonight, he is coming off back to back wins in his last two starts. Vogelsong (10-5, 2.27 ERA) tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing just three hits in a 15-0 destruction of the Cardinals his last time out. He leads the National League in ERA, and he has allowed more than two runs in only three of his last 10 starts.

Only four players in the Washington lineup have faced Vogelsong in the past, and between the four of them, they have only managed one hit in 16 at bats.

Washington will counter with Gio Gonzalez, who is also coming off a win his last time out. Gonzalez (14-6, 3.32 ERA) allowed three runs on nine hits, going the distance against Houston in a 4-3 win his last time out. Prior to that he was not as sharp, allowing four runs on nine hits over eight innings in a 5-2 loss to Miami. His endurance will be tested today, as his previous two starts are his longest outings of the season, as he hadn't gone deeper than the seventh inning in.

Gonzalez has had limited success against the Giants, going 1-2 with a 3.42 ERA in four career starts versus San Francisco.

We all know how difficult it is to score runs in this ballpark, and with these two formidable pitchers, it should prove to be a daunting task.

Wunderdog

Texas at New York Yankees
Pick: Texas +100

The numbers for the season say this may be a preview of the ALCS as the Texas Rangers head to New York to open a series with the Yankees. The Yankees have gotten good work out of David Phelps in spot starter duty, but the three starts were all vs. weak offenses. The challenge will be much stiffer here. Ryan Dempster showed some nerves in his Ranger debut, but quickly became the pitcher they expected, which continued all season when he threw 6.2 innings of shutout baseball at Fenway Park vs. a strong lineup and hitter friendly park. The Rangers have been string in series openers at 48-21 in their last 69, while the Yankees have been bruised of late by winning teams at 3-8 in their last 11. Texas gets the call in this one.

Jack Jones

Detroit Tigers -138

After two straight losses, the Detroit Tigers now trail the Chicago White Sox by two games in the AL Central. I have them bouncing back with a victory Monday night over the lowly Minnesota Twins, who are tied with Kansas City for last place in the division at 49-65.

Anibal Sanchez has been at his best on the road this season. The right-hander is 3-3 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.242 WHIP in 11 road starts in 2012. He'll certainly enjoy pitching inside spacious Target Field tonight.

The Tigers are 40-17 in their last 57 vs. American League Central. Detroit is 16-5 in its last 21 vs. a team with a losing record. The Twins are 19-42 in their last 61 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Minnesota is 0-5 in its last 5 home games overall. The Tigers are 23-8 in the last 31 meetings, including 6-1 in their last 7 meetings in Minnesota. Bet Detroit Monday.