Jimmy Boyd
Chicago Cubs -177
The Astros are 11-42 in their last 53 overall and 10-45 in their last 55 road games. They are even 0-5 in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Cubs, meanwhile, are 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite. The Cubs are 3-0 at home against Houston this season, and they have the edge with Jeff Samardzija on the mound. The talented right-hander has been solid at Wrigley all season, going 3-3 (6-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.61. Houston's Armando Galarraga is 0-2 (0-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 5.28 on the year. The Astros have dropped 8 of their last 9 at Wrigley, and I expect their struggles on the North Side to continue.
Jeff Alexander
Tampa Bay Rays -131
The Rays have won 6 in a row, and I expect them to keep right on rolling against a Seattle club they have defeated 9 times in the last 11 meetings. Alex Cobb has been dominant in his last 2 starts, giving up only 2 runs on 9 hits in 14 innings while striking out 13 and walking 1. Look for him to do the job again and for the Tampa Bay bats, who have plated 7 runs or more in 3 of their last 4 games, to take care of the rest.
Dave Price
Chicago White Sox -119
The Blue Jays have lost 5 of 6 and 11 of 14, and I expect their struggles to continue with Peavy stepping to the mound for the White Sox. He is 4-0 on the money line all-time versus the Jays and has limited them to 2 earned runs or fewer in each of this season's starts against them. Plus, the White Sox are 9-2 in Peavy's last 11 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Chicago.
MLB Predictions
San Francisco Giants -113
Washington snapped their 8 game winning streak with a 7-4 loss in Arizona yesterday. They are now 71-44 on the season and 39-22 on the road. The Giants won their last two games over Colorado on the weekend at home by scores of 9-6 on Sunday and 9-3 on Saturday. They have scored 8+ runs in 6 of their last 10 games, and are now 63-52 and 34-24 at home. Gio Gonzalez will take the mound tonight after a complete game his last start where he threw 117 pitches giving up 9 hits and 3 earned runs against the Astros. He is 14-6 on the season with a 3.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .209 opponents batting average, but his ERA has been slowly climbing as he posted a 4.34 ERA in June, 4.59 ERA in July and has a 3.71 ERA in two August starts. Ryan Vogelsong will pitch for San Francisco to make this a great pitching match up. Vogelsong is 10-5 with a 2.27 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and .215 opponents batting average. At home Vogelsong has stellar numbers with a 5-3 record, 1.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and .194 opponents batting average. After a shaky April start to the season Vogelsong has pitched to a 1.51 ERA in May, 2.02 ERA in June, 2.18 ERA in July, and a 2.70 ERA over his two August starts, which has put him into Cy Young talks. His last time out he allowed just 3 hits and 0 earned runs over 7 innings in a win in St Louis. Take note that the Giants are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall, 36-16 in their last 52 games as a home favorite, and 8-2 in their last 10 starts vs a lefty starter. The Giants are also 8-1 in Vogelsong's last 9 home starts, and 9-0 in his last 9 starts as a favorite. The Nationals swept San Fran at home earlier this season, but are just 3-9 in their last 12 meetings in San Francisco. Gonzalez hasn't been pitching his best lately and is coming off a long 117 pitch outing, while Vogelsong has continued to be great and especially at home. I like the Giants tonight laying just -113.
Chicago White Sox -119
The Blue Jays won on Sunday 10-7 but are just 3-11 in their last 14 games as they are battling a ton of injuries to starters. They have dropped to 54-60 on the season and 29-25 at home. The White Sox are 7-4 in their last 11 after securing a series win against Oakland yesterday with a 7-3 victory. Chicago is now 62-51 on the year and 30-25 on the road. Jake Peavy will pitch for Chicago and he is 9-8 on the season with a solid 3.08 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and .229 opponents batting average. Peavy has started two games against the Blue Jays this season, which were both home wins (4-2 and 4-3). Toronto's most consistent starter, Carlos Villanueva will take the mound tonight and he is 6-2 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and .223 opponents batting average. Villanueva has been called on to start games due to Toronto's starting pitching problems and is showing a little bit of tiring, although overall he has been solid as a starter. The White Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 games after scoring 5+ runs in the previous game, 7-3 in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record, and 23-10 in their last 33 games as a road favorite. The White Sox are also 13-6 in Peavy's last 19 starts as a favorite, and 6-2 in his last 8 road start as a favorite. The Blue Jays are just 6-20 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Although they managed to score 10 runs yesterday afternoon the Blue Jays have had massive troubles scoring runs with their lineup that includes a number of Triple-A players, and I expect those scoring troubles to continue tonight against Peavy. Take the White Sox.
MATT RIVERS
Your Monday night free play winner will be for the Tigers-Twins game to land Over the total with Sanchez and Deduno starting.
Detroit snapped a string of three unders in a row with an over against Texas. Overall the Tigers have played high in seven of their last eleven games, while Minnesota comes in having played four of their last six games over the posted price.
It will be Anibal Sanchez and Samuel Deduno looking to keep the runs off the board, but Sanchez sports an ERA close to eight in his three starts since joining the Tigers, and three of Deduno's last four starts for the Twins have ended up going over the total.
Three of the last four season series meetings between the teams have landed in the over column, and six of the nine overall meetings between these Central Division rivals this season have played over. Nothing different tonight, Tigers and Twins combine to go over.
4* DETROIT-MINNESOTA OVER
JEFF BENTON
Your Monday freebie is the Pirates over the Dodgers.
Pittsburgh was on the brink of losing their fourth in a row yesterday, but rallied from a 5-0 deficit to down the Padres and move to 35-20 at PNC Park this season. They will try to maintain their wild card advantage against a Dodgers team that is just 2 1/2 games behind them in the playoff chase.
Aaron Harang has been getting hit, as he has allowed 10 runs to cross on 16 hits over his last 11 innings pitched. With the Pirates bats awaken after plating 11 runs on Sunday, look for Harang's struggles to continue.
Jeff Karstens has worked close to 30 innings at home this year, and sports an under 2 ERA with a 2-0 mark at PNC Park. Pittsburgh has dropped 6 straight to Los Angeles, and 12 of the last 14 meetings overall. You could say the Pirates are "due" for a win over the Dodgers.
First of four from the Steel City to go the Pirates way.
2* PITTSBURGH
DOM CHAMBERS
For my free play, let’s go with the Milwaukee Brewers on the run line against the Colorado Rockies.
In this spot, it’s a total pitching mismatch.
For the Brewers, Michael Fiers has been on fire. He is 6-4, but has an ERA of 1.80. In his last three games, he is 3-0 with an 1.33 ERA. His WHIP is 0.89.
For the Rockies, Jeff Francis starts and he is having a tough season. Overall, he is 3-4 with a 6.06 ERA. But in his last three starts, he is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA and a WHIP of 1.97.
The Brewers have won four of their last six games, while the Rockies have lost three of their last four games.
The Brewers are the better team with the better pitcher.
Take them on the run line.
2* BREWERS -1.5
CRAIG DAVIS
Today's free play is on the NY Yankees over the Texas Rangers in a battle of the two best teams in the American League.
Both the Rangers (67-46) and Yankees (67-47) are in great shape in their respective divisions, each holding a lead of five games or more over the A's and Rays, respectively.
Rangers starter Ryan Dempster (1-0, 6.35 ERA) has been up and down since being acquired by the Rangers right before the trade deadline, and the reviews are still mixed. Ironically, Geovany Soto was also acquired by the Rangers (Dempster's catcher in Chicago) when Mike Napoli got hurt.
Dempster is 0-3 with a 6.45 ERA in four lifetime starts versus the Yankees, but he's only faced them once since 2001. But numbers are our industry and numbers don't lie.
David Phelps (2-3, 2.42) counters for the Yankees, filling in for CC Sabathia as the big lefty is making his second trip to the DL with a sore left elbow. It will be the first start since July 4 for Phelps, who is 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA over 13 innings.
If this series were in Texas, I might be worried about Phelps... but he seems to pitch better at home.
Take the Yankees as your free play of the day.
2* N.Y. YANKEES
CHUCK O'BRIEN
My free pick tonight is another underdog, albeit not as big as the past three nights, as I'm playing the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. And I want you listing Twins starter Sam Deduno, who is 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA for the Twins.
He's due to rebound from last week's start, as he struggled against the Indians on Tuesday, yielding four runs on five hits and five walks in four frames. He also plunked a batter and struck out three. His control continues to be an issue as he's now allowed 25 walks in 34 innings this year.
Nonetheless, I like his chances for a quality start, as he gets a Detroit team that is 1-4 in its past five games after dropping two of three against the Rangers.
I know the Twins have lost four in a row, but they've won five straight with Deduno on the hill as an underdog, while they've won seven of the last eight Mondays. Take the home underdog in this one.
2* MINNESOTA
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Monday night takes me out to the Bay, in San Francisco, where I like the Washington Nationals to steal their series-opener versus the Giants, and I am listing Gio Gonzalez.
The southpaw has arguably been the team's most consistent pitcher on staff, and comes into this one after firing his first nine-inning complete game in last Wednesday's win over Houston.
He yielded only three runs on nine hits and striking out seven while displaying incredible durability by throwing 117 pitches in a rather long outing the Nats desperately needed. Gonzalez, who happened to hit his first Major League homer versus the Astros, has been the go-to guy this season.
Tonight, in a crucial series-opener, this is the right time for Gonzalez to come through once again for the Nationals.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the NY Yankees over the Texas Rangers in a battle of the two best teams in the American League.
Both the Rangers (67-46) and Yankees (67-47) are in great shape in their respective divisions, each holding a lead of five games or more over the A's and Rays, respectively.
Rangers starter Ryan Dempster (1-0, 6.35 ERA) has been up and down since being acquired by the Rangers right before the trade deadline, and the reviews are still mixed. Ironically, Geovany Soto was also acquired by the Rangers (Dempster's catcher in Chicago) when Mike Napoli got hurt.
Dempster is 0-3 with a 6.45 ERA in four lifetime starts versus the Yankees, but he's only faced them once since 2001. But numbers are our industry and numbers don't lie.
David Phelps (2-3, 2.42) counters for the Yankees, filling in for CC Sabathia as the big lefty is making his second trip to the DL with a sore left elbow. It will be the first start since July 4 for Phelps, who is 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA over 13 innings.
If this series were in Texas, I might be worried about Phelps... but he seems to pitch better at home.
Take the Yankees as your free play of the day.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Dirty
Rangers vs. Yankees
Play: Under 9.5
Righthander Ryan Dempster will take the mound for the Rangers to start this game. Dempster is 6-5 this season with a 2.65 ERA. Meanwhile, it'll be David Phelps who starts for the Yankees. Righthander Phelps is 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA so far this season. The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Texas's last 23 games on the road
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA -1½ +110 over San Diego
Despite losing last night, the Braves remain one of the hottest teams in the majors with 14 wins in their past 18 games. San Diego has five wins in 18 road games against left-handed starters and will face one here in Mike Minor.
Minor has put up ace-like numbers since July 5, with six consecutive quality starts. Over that span, he’s struck out 32 in 38 innings and has allowed two runs or less in five of those six starts. In his one other start since then, he allowed three runs at hitter-friendly Citizen’s BankPark in Philly. Minor offers significant stretch-run upside.
Eric Stults is 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA but it’s clearly false advertising. Stults has issued 15 walks while striking out just 21 in 43 frames. Stults is a 32-year-old journeyman that has just 200 innings pitched in his 6-year major-league career, in which he's amassed a 4.46 ERA. He's also compiled a BAA of .278 and a WHIP of 1.45 over his time in the bigs. Even less impressive when he's mostly pitched at L.A.’s Chavez Ravine and San Diego’s PetcoPark. With a high fly-ball bias profile, poor control, a low strikeout rate, Stults is an implosion waiting to happen and chances are it occurs here against the hot bats of the Braves.
Andre Gomes
Dodgers / Pirates Over 8
This will be an interesting 4-games series between two teams fighting for the wild card position. The Dodgers will have Harang as their SP and he has been having command issues, as he has walked 14 batters on his last four outings. He has been able to limit the damage until now, but with a FIP of 4.74, 7.44, 3.75, 4.96 and 4.48 on his starts after the all-star game, it's clear that he is clearly struggling. He will now face a Pirates offense who are hitting quite well with .262 BA vs RHP's on his last 10 games. They were shutout by Marquis last Saturday, but they bounced back yesterday by scoring 11 runs. In fact, Pittsburgh is #3 in SLG in the current month with .465, just behind the Yankees and the Angels. Therefore, I believe Harang will struggle today in handling the Pirates' offense.
On the other hand, Pittsburgh will have Karstens in the mount, a SP who has also been struggling with his command. The truth is that Karstens missed almost two months with a shoulder injury and his outings lately have been against Houston (twice), the Cubs, Colorado, Miami and Arizona, teams that are respectively #29, #30, #12, #22 and #15 on BA over the last 30 days, so Karstens hasn't really been fully tested after his injury, especially as when he faced Colorado and Arizona, the only two teams that he faced with some hitting powers, he allowed 4 ER to Colorado and 3 ER to Arizona. The Dodgers offense has been improving since their injured players got back into the lineup and with their new trade acquisitions, the Dodgers have been keeping their BA always over .280 on their last four games. Yes, they have struggled with their RISP, but they are generating hits and their current roster is .290 BA against Karstens, so I expect a confident Dodgers (after a good win yesterday in Miami, with some great hitting late in the game) to cause some problems to Karstens tonight.
With both pitchers having the potential to struggle tonight, I see value on the Over, with the current line being at just 8 runs. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.