Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 16, 2010

Cajun Sports
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Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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The best pitching matchup on Monday takes place in south Florida where Cliff Lee takes the bump for the Texas Rangers and David Price takes the hill for the host Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of their 3 game series. Texas is 2-7 their last nine trips to the Trop. Tampa is 16-5 at home their last twenty-one times to post, 6-1 at home versus teams with a winning road record and 13-3 at home versus left-handed starters. We note that Rays starter David Price is 4-0 when he starts with six days rest and the Rays are 13-2 when Price takes the hill after allowing two or fewer runs in their last game. This is a huge game especially for the youngster on the hill for the Rays taking on ace Cliff Lee in what should be a pitcher’s duel. We will back the host here as they get a big win on Monday night in Cigar City.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Tampa Bay Rays 1 Texas Rangers 0

Rob Vinciletti
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New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
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The Astros qualify in a nice system tonight. What we want to do is play on certain homers off a home favored with with a total that was 8 or less, if they won by 5 or more runs, and their opponent was favored at home in their last game. These homers have won in the Mid 70/s range the past few years. The Astros have W. Rodriguez on the mound tonight. W-Rod is and always has been a better home pitcher than he has on the road. In fact, in his last home start here vs the Mets he went 9 innings and did not allow a run. Over his last 3 starts he has a fantastic 0.84 era. The Mets have young lefty J. NIese on the mound tonight. Niese has been a nice surprise for the Mets this season. However they have lost 6 of his 9 road starts. The Mets are struggling big time at the plate. They have not even scored much at home recently. They are averaging just 2 runs per game and hitting a shade over .200 the past week. Take the Astros here tonight in game 1 of the series.

Kyle Hunter
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New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
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The Houston Astros aren't exactly the type of team I like to place a lot of faith in, but Wandy Rodriguez is absolutely dealing right now. Rodriguez has given up two earned runs in his last four starts combined. The Astros are 20-9 in his last 29 home starts. The Mets have been falling apart of late. They are a miserable 7-19 in their last 26 road games and just 1-6 in Jonathan Niese's last 7 starts overall. The Astros have a huge pitching advantage in this one and the game is on their home field. I think there is a lot of value in the Astros moneyline here.

JIM FEIST
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DODGERS / BRAVES
PLAY: UNDER
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I gave out the Braves Sunday with Jurjenns, but didn't expect the 13-1 blowout we got. The Braves have lots of quality at the starting pitcher spot and today is no exception with Tommy Hanson. Hanson takes the ball, looking for his first win since July 3. The Braves pitchers have carried this team, posting a 1.58 ERA and 6-2 record in August. Good thing too, as the bats are hitting a paltry .218 with just 3.6 runs per game average. Hanson knows all about lack of run support. Hanson has a 2.03 ERA in his last seven starts but is 0-3 during that span due to the Braves 3.1 average run support. Chad Billingsley has been very good for the Dodgers, allowing just five earned runs over his last five starts. In addition, Billingsley has a stellar 0.96 ERA in his last three road starts. Two very good pitchers here on Monday, no run support for either lately and I'm looking for the UNDER here.

SPORTS WAGERS
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HOUSTON –1.07 over NY Mets
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This is a cheap line against the fragile Mets. The Mets are coming off an important series against the Phillies in which they lost two of three and scored a total of two runs. If not for a couple of 1-0 victories over its last six games the Mets would be in a real skid. Offensively, they’re in a seriously troubling skid and in fact during its just concluded six-game home stand, the Mets scored a measly nine runs. Overall, they went 3-34 (.088) with RISP. It gets worse. The Mets have fallen 10 games back in the East after trailing by four at the All-Star break. They are 10-19 since the break and are hitting .212 over that period and there are distractions in the locker room over the incidents involving Francisco Rodriguez and Johan Santana. Jonathan Niese is a good young pitcher that’s going to be around for a long time. However, when your offense isn’t scoring, pitchers feel like they have to be perfect to win and those are tough conditions to pitch under. Niese has also struggled somewhat on the road with a BAA of .282 compared to .229 at home. Furthermore, Houston's offense, which has languished near the bottom of NL rankings throughout the season, has come alive in August, averaging six runs-per-game this month and averaging five runs per game since early July. Very few starting pitchers have been better than Wandy Rodriguez since June 24. Since then, W-Rod has allowed one run or less in seven of nine starts. Over his last 34 frames he’s walked five and struck out 34 to go along with an ERA of 1.83. His ERA has dropped an incredible two full runs since June 18 and everything lines up right for another victory against this feeble offense. Play: Houston –1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

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Detroit +1.56 over NY YANKEES (1st 5 innings)
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The Tigers can’t be trusted to hold a lead especially with its closer, Jose Valverde’s status uncertain. Thus, we’ll eliminate the pen and will count on Max Scherzer to go at least five strong innings. Scherzer is wickedly good and the best part about him going here is that the Yanks have yet to face him. Scherzer has all the goods to become an impact starter and while consistency is a bit of an issue, that will correct itself because this guys stuff is too good for him to not be consistently good. His 55% to 14% ratio in favor of dominant performances to disasters is a clear reason for optimism and he’s had a couple of months this season with an off-the charts **BPV (143 in June and 108 in April). Javier Vasquez is a huge risk at a big price. He’s losing steam and a close look at his numbers reveal a guy with a 32% groundball rate over the last month. That’s a number that should concern you if you’re laying the lumber because it suggests that Vazquez is laboring big time and that’s he’s likely to give up some jacks, especially at Yankee Stadium. Vazquez has allowed 36 hits over his last 27 frames and he appears to be getting weaker with each passing start. All the signs are there to suggest that Vazquez is a pitcher in trouble. These Tigers are coming off a 13-run outburst yesterday and that’s a huge boost for a team that was laboring offensively. No reason whatsoever they can’t pound Vazquez too. Play: Detroit in the first five innings +1.56 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS
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Baltimore Orioles -125
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The Mariners starting pitcher Doug Fister has not been very good after the All-Star break and he has struggled on the road. Fisters home ERA is 3.14 but on the road his ERA rises up to 5.45. In his last three starts Fister has struggled with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 5.74 and I expect him to struggle in this start against the surging Orioles. Baltimore send Brad Burgesen to the mound and he has been pitching very well. In his last three starts Burgesen is 1-0 with and ERA of only 1.57. Bergesen has allowed four earned runs on 12 hits over his last 23 innings with 14 strikeouts over that span and just four walks. I expect another quality start from Bergesen here against the Mariners. Seattle is 6-13 in their last nineteen road games against a team with a losing home record and they are just 2-9 in Fister's last eleven road starts. The Orioles have won seven out of the last ten meetings between these two teams in Baltimore and I expect that to continue. Play on Baltimore.

Jimmy Moore
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New York Giants @ New York Jets
Pick: New York Jets -1
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The Jets have all the pressure on them this year with high expectations and their coach is heaping it on them even more. This will have them more motivated than normal for a pre-season game and they plan on playing the starters more time than usual for the pre-season opener. Look for that to pay dividends for the Jets.

Tom Freese
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Rangers at Rays
Play: Under
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Tampa Bay starter David Price has allowed 5 runs total in his last 5 starts. The Rays are 8-3-2 UNDER their last 13 home games vs. lefty starters. Price is 7-2 UNDER his last 9 home starts. The Rays are 7-1 UNDER in game one of series and they are 8-3-2 UNDER vs. AL West teams. Texas starter Cliff Lee is 6-1 UNDER his last 7 starts. Lee has 2 walks and 25 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Rangers are 20-8-2 UNDER their last 30 games. Texas is 59-29-3 UNDER their last 89 games vs. lefty starters. The Rangers are 19-6-2 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record.

JR O'Donnell
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BAL / SEA Under 8.5
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Under O's M's tonight as it Goes Way Under 8.5 Jr. O "Camden Yard" style as the O's "B Bergesen" show will limit the poor Seattle M's. The O's @ 41-77 and Mariners 46-72 will see limited runs out of these 2 poor cellar dwellers in Baltimore tonight, The O's Bergesen off a super 2 hitter and complete game last outing vs. the Tribe. The M's will run out the D. Fister who is 4-8 over all & a 3.86 ERA.

Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Florida Marlins -109
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After getting swept by the Reds, expect the Marlins to get back in the win column against a Pittsburgh club that has lost 7 straight. Volstad is pitching his best ball of the season, and the Marlins have won 3 of his last 4 starts as a result. McDonald get the ball for Pittsburgh following a poor performance against the Padres. I like Florida's bats against the righty, considering they are scoring 4.5 runs per game against righty starters on the season. Compare that to Pittsburgh, which is scoring only 3.3 runs per game against righty starters. The Pirates are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 16-55 in their last 71 games overall vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Fish.

Ben Burns

Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Yankees
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The Yankees were blanked 1-0 by the Royals yesterday. Historically, that's been bad news for their next opponent. Indeed, the Yankees have gone an impressive and profitable 62-25 (+23) the last 87 times that they'd been shut out in their previous game. That includes a 14-4 (+8.9) mark their last 18 in that situation. Returning home, they figure to have a strong chance at improving on those numbers.
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The Yankees are a healthy 37-20 at home, averaging 5.9 runs per game here. Even with a win yesterday, the Tigers are still a dismal 19-36 on the road. That includes a brutal 1-10 mark when Max Scherzer has started on the road. For his part, Scherzer checks in with a 1-6 record in those 11 road starts, posting a poor 5.12 ERA.
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Admittedly, Vazquez hasn't been too great lately. He's faced the likes of Texas, Boston and Tampa in his last three games though. Facing a Detroit lineup, which averages only four runs per game on the road, figures to be more to his liking. Note that Vazquez has a 1.23 ERA his last two starts vs. the Tigers. In those two games, through 14 2/3 innings, he allowed just eight hits and two runs. He had 15 K's with only four walks. With the Yankees at 34-16 (+4.3) the last 50 times that they were home favorites in the -175 to -200 range, consider laying the wood.

Scott Spreitzer
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San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Play: San Diego Padres
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Kevin Correia is starting to "earn his keep" in the Padre rotation. He's pitched better in his last five games and the Friars have taken advantage, going 4-1. In those outings, Correia has posted a 3.60 ERA & 1.20 WHIP, which are far better numbers than his overall season marks. I expect the results to continue in his favor tonight against a Cubs' team that averages less than 4 rpg at home against righthanders. Chicago will counter with Tom Gorzelanny, who has been heading in the other direction a bit. The lefthander owned a 3.22 ERA on July 30. But he's been saddled with a 5.60 ERA & 1.45 WHIP in his last three starts. The Cubs have dropped all three outings. San Diego enters on a 12-3 run in Correia's last 15 road starts, while the Cubbies are 4-14 in their last 18 overall. I'll back the Padres on Monday night.

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
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The Baltimore Orioles host the Seattle Mariners tonight at 7:05 PM ET in the first game of the series. The total stands at 8.5 runs which is way too low for this matchup. This Total is all about the pitching matchup. Fister starts for Seattle and tends to give up a lot of runs when playing on the road since he has a 5.45 ERA and 1.624 WHIP. He also has a slightly higher 5.74 ERA in his last three starts. On the other side of the matchup, Bergensen starts for the Orioles. He has been pitching decent with a low 1.54 ERA in his last three starts but tends to give up a good amount of runs at home since he has a 5.91 ERA when pitching at home. Get on this total and cash in before the 8th inning! Play on the OVER
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Play on: The Over

Nelly
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Texas + over Tampa Bay
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The Rangers are just 3-4 when Cliff Lee has started but he has pitched well in most games. He has struggled far more in Texas than on the road and the controlled indoor environment in St. Petersburg should be favorable. The Rays are just 4-7 in the last eleven games and the offensive production has been limited. Tampa Bay is batting just .226 over the last ten games compared to .282 from the Rangers. The Rays are also just 2-3 in the last five home games with much less dominant home numbers than the 2008 World Series season. David Price is on the short list of Cy Young contenders but the Rays are only 5-4 in the last nine starts. He has only allowed fewer than two runs once in his last ten starts and walks can certainly be a problem for the young left-hander. Texas has won five of the last seven meetings between these teams and the Rangers are 24-14 in the opening game of a series this season. While both pitchers are among the best in the AL, Lee has the potential to be more dominant while the Texas lineup has been far more consistent.