Jack Jones
Florida Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Florida Marlins
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The Pittsburgh Pirates are receiving way too much respect from odds makers with this line Monday. Considering Pittsburgh is 0-7 in their last 7 games and they are 39-78 for the season, the Pirates should be a much bigger underdog against the Marlins tonight. During this 7-game losing streak, Pittsburgh is scoring 2.1 RPG while allowing 5.4 RPG and getting outscored by 3.3 RPG. Pittsburgh is hitting .241 as a team this year and .209 during their losing streak.
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This is a pretty even match-up on the mound with Chris Volstad (4.81 ERA, 1.462 WHIP) and James McDonald (4.59 ERA, 1.532 WHIP), but the edge certainly goes to the Marlins offensively. They are scoring a full 1.1 RPG more than the Pirates this season. The Pirates are 3-21 against the money line off 2 straight road losses against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins have been a resilient bunch, going 18-7 against the money line in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Pittsburgh is 16-55 in their last 71 games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet Florida Monday.
John Ryan
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Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays
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5* graded play on Tampa Bay as they host Texas and Cliff Lee set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that TB will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 55-28 making 36.5 units since 2004. Play against AL road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings. Tis game features tow of the best left handed starters in the AL and a possible playoff preview as well. TB has done quite well against the elite starters this year. TB is a solid 13-3 (+9.7 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better this season. One way to defeat a top starter is be patient at the plate and make him work deep counts as often as possible. With that said Texas has not well against similar teams. Texas is just 2-10 (-9.3 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more per game this season. TB is also 31-9 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in home games after a one run win over the last 3 seasons. Texas went 3-2 against the Yankees and Red Sox over the past 5 games and this emotional intensity has to have an effect having now to face another AL contender. A direct factor is that the bullpen is tired and this will force Lee to go as long as possible. So, Tb will work pitch counts to their advantage. Texas bullpen has posted a 5.40 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP over the past 7 games. The Rays bullpen has been stellar all season long posting a 3.23 ERA and a 1.153 WHIP on the season and is currently posting a 1.23 ERA and a 0.727 WHIP over the past 7 games. Take the Rays.
Info Plays
3* on Atlanta Braves -152
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Reasons the Braves win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ATLANTA) - where team's hitters draw 4 walks or more/game on the season, after allowing 2 runs or less 3 straight games. This is a 73-24 ML System hitting 75.3% since 1997. Bet the Braves at home.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -105
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I'm backing Price in tonight's pitcher's duel. The Tampa Bay lefty is 7-1 with an ERA of only 2.04 at home this season. Price hasn't pitched since August 9th, so his arm should be feeling good tonight. In fact, the Rays are 4-0 in his last 4 starts with 6 days of rest. Price is also a good one to give the ball to in the first game of a series, as evidence by his 8-1 money line run in this situation. There's no doubting how good Lee has been this season, but he has given up 4 runs in 2 of his last 3 starts, and the Rangers lost both of those games as a result. In addition, Tampa Bay is scoring 5.4 runs per game against southpaw starters on the season with a .344 on base percentage. The Rangers are only averaging 4.6 runs per game against southpaw slingers with a .327 OBP. The Rangers are 2-7 in their last 9 meetings in Tampa Bay, and I look for the struggles to continue there tonight.
Doug Upstone
Blue Jays vs. Athletics
Play Under 7
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The Oakland A’s are averaging 2.6 runs per game this month and are 12-0-1 UNDER. They will attempt to change their luck against Toronto’s Shaun Marcum who has 7.41 ERA in his last three outings.
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With the total low at 7, look to Play Under when the total is 7 to 8.5 and one team is batting a frosty .225 or worse over their last 10 games, against opponent with ice cold starting pitcher who has ERA of 7.00 or higher over his last three starts. Logic dictates a team not hitting against a struggling pitcher benefits the hurler and this system is 47-14 the past five seasons.
Wunderdog
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Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
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The New York Yankees are a tough team, and not too many teams would like to have to face this team day in day out. That is enough in and of itself, but how about a Yankees team that just got shutout, and is posted as a favorite in their next game? Turning back the clock to mid 2007, the Yankees have been shutout 18 times. In the game following the shutout, they have been posted as a favorite in 16 of them. What have they done? They have outscored their opponent by 3.7 runs per game and went onto a 15-1 record. Enough said. I’m on the Yankees in this one.
Tony Stoffo
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San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: San Diego Padres
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With Kevin Correia matching up against Ton Gorzelanny makes the Padres the solid release at this low value price. Correia has looked sharp in his recent starts allowing just 7 runs, and 12 hits in 18 innings pitched producing a 1.000 WHIP. So I can't see the underachieving Cubbies doing much against him this evening. While I see the surging Padres who have now won 6 of their last 7 games having no problem putting up some crooked numbers up on the scoreboard tonight against the Cubs starter Gorzelanny who has allowed 12 runs, 21 hits, and 7 walks in just his last 19 innings pitched. Plus throw in the fact that San Diego has the huge edge in the bullpen here makes them the right side here this evening.
Teddy Covers
Blue Jays @ Athletics
PICK: Under 7
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The Oakland A’s have been Under machines in recent weeks. Their light hitting lineup has been repeatedly stymied by opposing pitchers, but their own staff has been strong enough to keep them competitive in almost every game. Oakland has 12 Unders and one push in their 13 August ballgames, with all thirteen games producing a combined total of eight runs or less.
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There’s absolutely no reason to expect any sort of dramatic change today – this matchup looks very much like another pitcher’s duel. Oakland’s Brett Anderson has gotten better and better in each of his first three starts since coming off the DL. Anderson threw seven innings of five hit, one run ball against Seattle in his last start. He’s yet to allow a home run in nine previous starts this season, bad news for a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled against lefties all year and that relies heavily on the long ball for their offensive production.
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Oakland can’t hit quality pitching, held to a grand total of eleven runs on their just concluded six game road trip. Shaun Marcum held the A’s to a single run in 6.1 innings of work when he faced them earlier this season. In his two previous starts against the A’s, Marcum held Oakland to a single run in seven full innings both times. Marcum got hit hard by the powerful Yankees and Red Sox lineups in his last two starts, primed for a bounceback effort here against a lineup he should dominate. 2* Take the Under.
Dwayne Bryant
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HOU (-115) vs NYM
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The Mets are just not hitting at all right now. They've managed just TWO total runs in their last three games. They're only hitting .234 against lefties on the road this season, scoring 3.05 runs per game. In their last 10 games, the Mets are batting just .180 and scoring 1.95 runs per game against lefties. So this is not a good time for the Mets to be running into a white-hot Wandy Rodriguez. Rodriguez has allowed one run or less in SEVEN of his last nine starts. He owns a 0.84 ERA and 25/2 K/BB ratio in his last three starts. Jonathon Niese has pitched well for the most part, but I just don't think he'll get enough run support from the struggling Mets lineup. The Mets are 0-5 in Niese's last five starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, while the Astros are 5-0 in their last five home games vs. a left-handed starter AND 7-0 in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. I'll take Houston & Rodriguez for a SMALL action wager tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Baltimore Orioles -128
The O's are playing well since changing managers, and they have now won 9 of their last 13 overall. They have won 6 of their last 7 at home, and they are also an impressive 7-0 in their last 7 against the AL West division. The Mariners are a terrible 17-43 in their last 60 road games and 2-9 in Fister's last 11 road starts. Bergesen is pitching his best ball of the season, posting a 1.57 ERA over his last 3 starts. Plus, the Orioles are 8-2 in his last 10 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. It is also worth noting that the Mariners are just 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Baltimore. Take the O's.
Dan Bebe
HOU / NYM Under 7.5
I realize this is a little bit of an obvious play, but that's the direction we're headed today to get MLB back on track.
And hell, a Free Play offering might be to the gamblings gods' taste.
All jokes aside, this play is a strong one.
Jon Niese has been pitching extraordinarily well, and his lack of run support only doubles up our confidence in the selection.
The Mets haven't been hitting at all since the All Star Break, and it's looking more and more like the Mets and Dodgers drank from the same contaminated pond as these two high-profile teams have stopped scoring runs.
The Mets' woes certainly work in our favor today, as they come off a tough series with the Phillies, losing 2 of 3 while scoring just 2 total runs in the entire series. Hell, the Mets scored only 9 runs on their entire 6-game homestand.
Houston is pitching well, coming off a 3-game sweep of the lowly Pirates. Wandy Rodriguez has been downright dominant at home over the last 2 months, and there's almost no reason to think he won't put together another solid showing against the offensively anemic Mets.
It also doesn't hurt our cause that the Astros offense, after a ridiculous outburst 2 weeks ago, has come back to Earth, and aside from an 8 or 10-run explosion every once in a while, this team is built to score 3-4 runs/game. They don't have much power, and many of the recent wins have come as a result of an overachieving pen and some 6-7 inning quality efforts from the starters.
This series-opener has all the makings of a lefthanded pitchers' duel, and we just have to hope that neither bullpen completely implodes.
Play the Under!
Yo Blade -
It appears your site does not like Google Chrome. Appears to work smashingly with IE and Firefox though. Probably the wrong forum for this, but how about we get the "IT Department" on this right away...
Just to satisfy the forum requirements:
Slapaheel likes:
NFL MNF: NYG/NYJ OVER 33.5
MLB: Texas/Tampa UNDER 7