Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August, 19

Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Washington Nationals

When the Nats send Jordan Zimmerman up against Jeff Samadzija and the Cubs at Wrigley Field in the opener of this four-game series Monday evening, Washington will do so knowing Zimmerman is 14-3 at night and 3-0 against the NL Central in his team starts this season. On the other side of the coin, Samardzija is 0-3 in his team starts against the NL East this season. Back the better arm and the better team here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

Matt Fargo

Boston Red Sox vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Red Sox are coming off a series loss at home against the Yankees over the weekend and a series with their rival spells letdown. They have now dropped four of their last five games while going just 3-7 over their last 10 games and hit the road for a crucial six-game west coast trip. Additionally, Boston has lost five of its last seven road games and turns to Jon Lester to start a reversal of that. He is coming off two straight road starts, both of which were quality outings but the Red Sox dropped both of those as the offense managed only four runs total and overall, they have dropped his last three starts. His road ERA is a below average 4.48 to go along with a 1.38 WHIP and Boston is just 6-10 in his 16 highway starts. The Red Sox are 1-5 in his last six starts as a road favorite while the Giants are 10-3 in their last 13 Interleague home games against left-handed starters. San Francisco is coming off a 3-3 roadtrip but did manage to win three of its final four games. The Giants are a game over .500 at home and going back they are 27-11 in their last 38 Interleague home games. Tim Lincecum gets the nod tonight as he looks to bounce back from another poor road outing as he allowed six runs in six innings at Washington. Five of his last seven starts have been quality outings though and he has followed up his last two non-quality starts with a quality outing next time out. Additionally, four of his last five home starts have resulted in quality performances including two straight where he has allowed three runs over 15 innings.

Jimmy Boyd

St. Louis Cardinals -140

The Cardinals lineup is built to face a right-handed pitcher. They have a .280 batting average against right-handers this season and they are scoring 5.2 runs per game. They are facing a Brewers offense that has been horrible in division games, batting .247 and scoring a mere 3.7 runs per game.

St Louis will also have a big advantage at the starting pitcher position. Shelby Miller has a 2.97 ERA this season and he has 137 strikeouts in 127.4 innings pitched. Marco Estrada will get the start for the Brewers today, and he has a 7.72 ERA at home. In six home starts Estrada has given up 10 home runs, a number that you don't want to see before facing a team like St Louis.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Washington Nationals

Washington is 8-0 this season as a road favorite off a road dog loss and they fit one of our league Wide Power systems that has won 21 of 29 times and plays on road favorites that are off a road dog loss and scored 4 or less runs and are taking on an opponent like the Cubs that are off a home dog loss and scored 4 or less runs. The Cubs are 4-12 this month and are scoring just 2.6 runs on .206 hitting the past week. The Nationals have won 25 of 34 long term as a road favorite in this range and have a pitching advantage with J. Zimmerman whi has a 3.39 road era and 1.59 era in his last 3 starts, over Cubs starter J. Samardzija who has struggled going 4-9 at home and has a 9.39 era in his last 3 starts. Look for the Nationals to win the opener.

Jeffrey Brandes

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

Ryu has won each of his last five starts, posting a 2.27 ERA in that span while walking just four over 31 2/3 innings. In a May 11 start vs. the Marlins at Dodger Stadium, Ryu allowed only five hits and one run in 6 2/3 innings.

Fernandez has a 1.65 ERA who has held opponents to a .167 average since June 1, both marks best in the Majors over that stretch. Marlins ace Jose Fernandez, 21, will try to slow the Dodgers' historic run and keep them from picking up their 11th victory in 12 games. It's a Dodgers lineup that looks like an entirely different beast today than it did May 10, when Fernandez allowed three runs over six innings and struck out seven.

Art Aronson

Rays vs. Orioles
Play: Under 7½

David Price (6-5, 3.28 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Price is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up four runs over seven innings, settling for his third no-decision in a row vs. the Mariners on Wednesday. He gave up five hits but did strike out seven. For the most part though Price has been as solid as you could hope for and has pitched at least seven frames in each of his nine starts since returning from the DL. Price brings his extremely respectable 5-1, 2.71 ERA road record into Baltimore to throw opposite Chris Tillman (14-3, 3.70 ERA) who was unfortunate to get saddled with a no-decision after he gave up two runs on five hits with three walks over six frames vs. the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. Despite the result, note that Tillman has not lost a start since July 6th, having won eight of his last 11 outings. Tillman will look to get off the schneid and improve upon his sparkling 7-2 home record tonight. Three of these teams last five in their season series have gone "under" the posted number and with these two quality hurlers going head to head on Monday night, the "under" definitely becomes a legitimate investment opportunity.

Mike Williams

St. Louis Cardinals -135

The Cardinals find themselves only one game back of the Pittsburgh Pirates for first place in the NL Central division. The Cards want badly to get back in first place of division and overtake the Pirates. The Cards will be highly motivated Monday night to get a victory over a division foe in the Milwaukee Brewers.

Shelby Miller takes the hill for the Cards Monday night. Cardinals are 4-0 in Miller's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 4-1 in Miller's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. Marco Estrada makes the start for Milwaukee. Estrada has been awful in his home starts this season going 2-2 with a 7.71 ERA.

Brewers are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Cardinals are 27-11 in the last 38 meetings and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee. St. Louis gets it done in Milwaukee take the Cards.

Jesse Schule

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

As well as the Marlins have played at times recently, they still have the fewest wins in the National League. The Dodgers on the other hand have won 42 of their last 50. The hottest team in baseball will be in Miami on Monday, and the Marlins send their 21 year old ace Jose Fernandez to the mound. Fernandez (8-5, 2.45 ERA) tossed seven scoreless innings allowing just three hits in a 1-0 win at Kansas City in his last start. Prior to that he allowed a pair of runs on five hits over five innings in a no decision in a 5-4 loss to Pittsburgh. He's pitched well, but Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig have faced aces this year, and it has made little difference. The Dodgers send southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound, and he's been every bit as impressive as Fernandez this season. Ryu (12-3, 2.91 ERA) allowed a single run on five hits over seven innings in a 4-2 win over the Mets his last time out. The Dodgers are 9-0 in his last nine starts. The Marlins rank last in baseball in a lot of categories, including runs scored and team batting average. They also hold the distinction of having the worst numbers versus left-handed pitching. All things considered, it seems rather ludicrous that this game is close to a pickem.

Jim Feist

Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

Colorado has been a bad road team and doesn't have enough pitching, plus the Rockies are 25-53 in their last 78 road games. Rockies starting pitcher Jeff Manship (0-2) is off another bad game, charged with six runs on eight hits and two walks over five innings of a 7-5 defeat. Manship has a 7.20 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP through his first two starts (10 innings). Rockies are 25-60 in their last 85 road games vs. a right-handed starter and they face righty Ethan Martin, a good strikeout pitcher with 16 Ks in 14 innings. Colorado has never faced him before. Philadelphia had the managerial change late last week, which can bring extra motivation to a team having a tough season, so grab home field.

Ken Thomson

Miami Marlins +117

Jose Fernandez has been lights out at home sporting a ( 5-0 ) record. The Marlins come off a 6-5 come from behind win over the SF Giants on Sunday. Meanwhile the Dodgers had a 10-game win streak snapped as Hanley Ramirez booted a potential inning ending double play that would have kept the game rolling along. Most times when teams have a long winning streak broken they have a let down and drop a second straight contest. This is a good spot for the Fish and I'll take the ( +117 ). Ryu has been solid for the Dodgers and it's tough to go against a team that is ( 42-9 ) in their last 51 games but I'll stay with the letdown theory.

Will Rogers

Seattle vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland

Both teams come into Monday having taken two of three games in their previous series. In the case of Seattle, it was another AL West rival, the Texas Rangers. That in turn helped Oakland, who took two of three from Cleveland, pull within a half game of the division lead. I'll take the A's in tonight's opener.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Favored For a Reason - We all know Oakland is the better team here, but when they're favored, you can pretty much book a win. That's because they own a 52-29 record in the chalk role this season and going back to last year they are now 61-29 when favored at home.

2. Aaron Harang - The Seattle starter comes in with a 12.75 ERA and 2.167 WHIP in his last three starts. After allowing seven runs in back to back starts, he gave up three runs in five innings of a loss to Tampa Bay. Including that loss, Harang now owns a 1-7 TSR on the road this year with a 6.75 ERA.

3. X-Factor - A's starter Jarrod Parker is coming off the longest outing of his career as he allowed just one run in 8 1/3 innings last Wednesday. He's given up two earned runs or less in 12 of his last 16 starts, going 6-1 with a 2.73 ERA during that time.

Bryan Power

St. Louis vs. Milwaukee
Pick: St. Louis

It's hard not to prefer the Cards over the Brew Crew Monday night w/ Shelby Miller on the hill. St. Louis still has the best run differential in the National League at +140. They have gone 8-2 vs. Milwaukee in 2013 including a four-game sweep here at Miller Park earlier this season. Miller is 2-0 vs. the Brewers....

In those two starts, Miller has allowed just 1 ER in 13 innings. One was seven innings of shutout ball where he allowed just one hit. Here in Milwaukee, he allowed just one run in six innings. He has 13 K's versus just one walk. Miller comes in w/ a 2.97 ERA in his 23 starts this season.

The Brewers were blown out 9-1 at home by Cincinnati Sunday while the Cardinals rolled the Cubs 6-1. But the really bad news for Milwaukee is that Marco Estrada has a 7.72 ERA at home this season and has not pitched well against St. Louis, posting a 9.00 ERA in three starts. St. Louis is 58-33 vs. righties this year. I see the road team coming in and winning easily here.

Rocketman

Washington at Chicago Cubs
Play: Washington -140

The Washington Nationals travel to Chicago to take on the Cubs on Monday night. Washington is 25-9 last 3 years as a road favorite of -125 to -150. The Cubs have lost 6 of their last 7 games overall. Washington is allowing only 3.3 runs per game their past seven games overall holding opponents to a combined team batting average of only .225. Jordan Zimmerman starts tonight for Washington where he is 14-6 with a 3.02 ERA overall this year, 4-4 with a 3.39 ERA on the road this season and 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA his last 3 starts. Jeff Samardzija starts for the Cubs where he is 6-11 with a 4.29 ERA overall this year, 2-5 with a 4.95 ERA at home this season and 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Washington tonight!

Alex Smart

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Dave Price Tamps Bays ace and starter today vs the Orioles is 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 71 1/3 innings over nine starts since he was sidelined by a left triceps strain.The reigning Cy Young Award winner has only walked three of the 258 batters he's faced during that span. He also leads the AL in walks per nine innings (1.21) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.88). The dominant hurler is 6-2 in 14 career starts versus Baltimore with a 2.60 ERA and is also undefeated (3-0, 3.20 ERA) in seven starts at Camden Yards. Meanwhile, the ace of the Orioles pitching staff Chris Tilman will take to the hill to battle the Rays. He has pitched well this season, but is over rated because in my humble opionion, because of very average walk and home run ratios . He has also problems had with problems with TB. Two of Tillman’s three losses this season have come against the Rays. It must be noted that the Rays scored 42 runs combined to defeat the Orioles five of the last six meetings between these two teams. Im betting Tampa Bay once again find a way into the win column in this spot, Rays are 5-1 in Prices last 6 starts.Rays are 41-19 in Prices last 60 road starts.Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.