Doug Upstone
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
For Monday, Play Against underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like Baltimore, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70 percent (Chris Tillman - 14-3), against AL opponent with a starting pitcher (David Price - 6-5, 1.045 WHIP)whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season. Since 2009, this baseball system is 52-11, 82.5 percent and is a perfect 10-0 this year.
Steve Janus
Los Angeles Angels -125
Both the Angels and Indians aren't playing very good baseball right now. Each is just 4-9 over their last 13 games overall. However, there is a lot of value here on the Angels at home with their ace Jered Weaver on the mound. While Weaver is coming off a poor start at New York, he's been lights out at home this season, going 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.083 WHIP over 9 starts. You have to like his chances of following that trend given he's 7-2 with a 2.86 ERA over 15 career starts vs the Indians. Cleveland will counter with Danny Salazar, who will be making just his fourth career start. Salazar is 1-1 with a 4.07 ERA overall and 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his only start on the road. Weaver is a dominant 31-11 over his last 42 starts in the second half of the season, 20-4 over his last 24 at home and 29-9 over his last 38 as a favorite of -110 or higher.
Ray Monohan
Pittsburgh Pirates -137
The San Diego Padres may be feeling good about besting the Mets yesterday, and getting on a small run, but they got little done against the Mets ace Matt Harvey. Now just their luck they have another ace coming to town in the form of Pittsburgh Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano...and this one is actually backed by a first place lineup of real hitters. That is just too much for starter Andrew Cashner and Co. to overcome even in the wide expanse that is PetCo Park. Pittsburgh at -137 is fantastic value given the mound matchup and that Pittsburgh can ill afford to take a series off with St. Louis on their heels.
Jeff Benton
Monday's freebie is the Rays over the O's in their big series opener tonight at Camden Yards.
Both teams battling for a playoff ticket this October, and while both may make it, my money tonight will be on the visitors behind David Price.
Tampa has followed a season-high 6 game slide with wins in 4 of their last 5.
The Rays have taken 6 of the past 8 series meetings in this rivalry, and starter David Price is on a 5-1 roll since early July with a slender 1.77 ERA. Price is also a dominant 6-2 for his career against the O's, sporting a tough 3.20 in his 14 career starts versus Baltimore.
The Orioles will counter with their "ace" Chris Tillman who does own a 14-3 mark this season. Problem is, 2 of Tillman's 3 losses this year have come at the hands of the Rays, as Tillman is just 2-5 with a 4.77 ERA in his 10 starts against Tampa Bay.
Siding with Tampa in this one.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Brad Wilton
Monday's comp play is the Giants as the small home underdog against the Red Sox.
San Francisco lost a one run decision yesterday afternoon in Miami to snap their modest 3 game winning streak, but the situation looks right for them to pick up another win, as they are back home for this interleague battle and do catch Boston fresh off a 4-plus hour late night marathon at home against the Yankees last night.
What time do you think the Red Sox touched down on the west coast last night?
One would have to believe that the BoSox will be a little "fatigued" when they step on the diamond tonight. Boston dropped 2 of 3 to the Yankees, and have now lost 7 of their last 10 overall.
Red Sox starter Jon Lester is winless over his last 3 starts with a 4.58 ERA to go along with his 0-1 mark - Boston losing ALL 3 of those starts! The Sox in fact have dropped 8 of Lester's last 10 road starts coming into this game tonight.
Tim Lincecum counters and is off a rough outing at Washington his last trip to the bump, but was stellar in his 3 previous efforts with just 3 runs allowed in 22 innings worked.
Go with the Giants to take the series opener against a dog-tired Boston bunch here on Monday night.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Brett Atkins
My free play is on the Milwaukee Brewers tonight, as I like them as a home underdog here against the St. Louis Cardinals, thinking there is some value with this pup.
I know full and well the Cardinals are 30-21 against National League Central foes, but things are getting awfully tight, and the Brewers look like a potential spoiler team that will get the best of St. Louis, which is one game behind division-leading Pittsburgh and 1 1/2 games ahead of Cincinnati for the top wild-card spot.
The Brewers may not be playing for a division title, but there is still momentum with this team, not to mention pride when hosting the Redbirds this late in the season. Milwaukee is in a battle with the Chicago Cubs to stay out of the NL Central cellar. The Brew Crew are a half-game ahead of the Cubs after winning or splitting its last four series, and just split a four-game series with contending Cincinnati over the weekend.
I think the Brewers will be out for revenge knowing the Cardinals lead the season series 8-2 and swept a four-game set in their last trip to Milwaukee. Take the home pup.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
Chris Jordan
My free play for Monday is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Tampa Bay Rays, as I think we have a bit of value with the home underdog in this clash.
As hard as it may be for the Orioles to face Tampa Bay's David Price, the Rays are going to have their hands full with Chris Tillman, who has emerged as the ace of the Orioles' pitching staff.
True, the right-hander has yet to show he can handle the Rays, as two of his three losses this season have come against them this season. Tillman has suffered only one loss since dropping a 3-1 decision to Tampa Bay on May 19. But if there were ever a chance to show why he is 14-3 this season, tonight is as good as any other night, as he's won 22 of his last 27 career decisions.
Let's take a shot with the O's here.
2♦ BALTIMORE
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Monday is the Washington Nationals the Chicago Cubs.
With the Nationals' postseason prospects fading awfully fast, I think they're about to come alive, as they have four games against the listless Chicago Cubs to try to do breathe life back into their chances. The Nationals are now 15-1/2 games behind Atlanta in the National League East and 9-1/2 behind Cincinnati for the second wild card as they open this series in Chicago.
If there were ever a time to see the Nationals' potentially dangerous pitching rotation, it's in this series, as the baby bears have been shut out in five of their last eight home games, and narrowly avoided being shutout yesterday, when they dropped a 6-1 decision to the St. Louis Cardinals in the series finale.
Chicago, which is hitting an abysmal .197 as a team with nine extra-base hits in its past eight home games, has lost six of seven overall and nine of its last 10 at home.
Take the Nationals and don't bother listing pitchers.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Wunderdog
Cleveland at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels -121
The Los Angeles Angels have simply not lived up to what their potential was perceived to be, and at this point, they are not going to be playing in October. The one good thing they have on their side is Jered Weaver. Weaver was lit up for nine earned runs in his last start, and while that may have many backing off this Angel team, along with their poor showing vs. the lowly Astros, history dictates otherwise. The Angels are 23-0 when Weaver gets the ball following a start where he had a WHIP of greater than two, as this top of the rotation pitcher has proven to respond consistently off a horrible start. The Indians are a vastly improved team from a year ago, but still haven't solved their issues playing on the road vs. a right handed starter where they are 24-49 in their last 73. Play on Los Angeles.
Joe Gavazzi
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Two great rookie pitchers match up but that is where the similarity ends. Fernandez is 8-5 with 2.45 ERA including 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his L 6 starts. Ryu is 12-3 with a 2.91 ERA. The Dodgers have won his last 9 starts. The Marlins are not as bad as their 47-75 record appears. Since the return of their best bats, Morrison and Stanton Miami is 31-30. Yet those records pale in comparison to the recent streaks of the Dodgers. They lost for us yesterday when (SS Ramirez committed 2 ninth inning errors). BUT THEY HAVE NOT LOST CONSECUTIVE GAMES SINCE JUNE 21, THEIR CURRENT RUNS REMAIN 42-9, 24-4 and 10-1, including 19-2 AWAY. In what figures to be a great pitchers’ dual, the Dodgers have all the other edges.
TJ Pemberton
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
The LA Dodgers look to get back on track tonight after seeing their 10 game win streak slip out from under them with some late errors by their shortstop. Tonight they travel down to Miami to face the Marlins who are just 4-6 in the last 10 played and riding a win streak of one. Ryu takes the hill for the Dodgers and gets another tough opponent on the other end. Last time our he out lasted Harvey and the Mets, and tonight he gets Jose Fernandez who owns a ERA of 2.45 and seeks his 9th win of the year. Ryu only has faced the Miami Marlins once in his career and I see him going 2-0 against them in his only 2 starts. The Dodgers are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox -121
I'll back the AL East-leading Boston Red Sox (73-53) over the last-place San Francisco Giants (55-68) in Game 1 of this series tonight. Boston has more to play for and the edge on the mound in this one.
Jon Lester is 10-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 25 starts this season. In his lone career start against San Francisco, Lester pitched a complete game while allowing just one earned run in a 5-1 Red Sox victory.
Tim Lincecum is 6-12 with a 4.38 ERA in 24 starts this year. Lincecum was Lester's opponent in his lone career start against Boston. The right-hander allowed four earned runs and eight base runners over three innings in that 1-5 loss.
Lincecum is 1-13 (-14.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. Lincecum is 1-11 (-11.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are 52-17 in their last 69 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 0-7 in Lincecum's last 7 starts as an underdog. Bet Boston Monday.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Mets +115 over MINNESOTA
The combination of the Twins versus a right-handed starter, with rookie Kyle Gibson opposing that righty, is about the worst combination you’ll find on today’s board when spotting a tag. Gibson has some of MLB’s worst skills. In 47 innings over his first nine starts, Gibson has walked 18 batters while striking out a measly 27. A line-drive rate of 28% over his last four starts suggests he may be suffering from fatigue after 93 innings in the minors prior to his call-up. Of Gibson’s nine starts, only two have been of the pure quality variety and he hasn’t thrown a good game for since July 23rd, five starts ago. To make matters even more difficult, the Twins .239 batting-average against right-handed pitching is the worst mark in the AL. Kyle Gibson has no appeal as the chalk and when he is favored he’s almost an automatic fade every time.
Dillon Gee is coming off a six innings, two earned outing against the red-hot Dodgers. He’s been dealing it up lately with a total of eight earned runs allowed over his past six starts. Aside from facing the Dodgers, Gee also two-hit the Braves over seven frames and three-hit the Royals over seven innings as well. Over his last 35 innings, he’s walked just six batters. Before his injury in 2012, he was having a breakout campaign, with a high strikeout rate and outstanding command. His ground-ball tilt adds an extra element of skill and it appears as though Dillon Gee is entering the elite status level. Gee’s 5.25 ERA on the road hide his true skills, which allows us to buy him at a bargain price.
Cleveland +115 over L.A. ANGELS
Jered Weaver has been on our fade list for two years running and for good reason. Unfortunately he was a dog in his last start in New York so we couldn’t fade him. Sure enough, Weaver went out and got bombed for nine runs in five innings and there’s more of that to come. Jered Weaver is all fluke. His skills have deteriorated to the point of no return. Weaver’s fastball velocity has steadily declined into the mid-80s. His groundball rate/fly-ball split over his last three games is an embarrassing 15%/50% with a very disturbing 35% line-drive rate over thrown in over that stretch. That’s only three games but he’s been flashing similar poor skills the entire season and even most of last season when he won 20 games. Every ball hit off Weaver is hit hard. He’s not fooling anyone and when he wins or gets consecutive outs, it’s because of pure luck. Despite what others think or believe, Jered Weaver is the most overvalued starting pitcher in the big leagues and one of the least skilled.
The Angels are just a pathetic bunch that doesn’t seem to care if they win or lose. How can a team with this much talent keep losing games to inferior talent week after week after week. The Halos hit rock bottom this past weekend with a series loss to the lowly Astros. Prior to that, the Angels were destroyed in the Bronx. Over their past six games, L.A’s pitching staff has been torched to the tune of 49 runs allowed. Losing is highly contagious and the Angels have that bug spreading quicker than ever. They’ll now face a pitcher they’ve never seen before in Danny Salazar. Salazar was called up to pitch July 11 against Toronto. He had a breakout 2012, after missing most of '10 and '11 undergoing Tommy John surgery. Upon return, his fastball actually had a bit more velocity and his secondary pitches got much better. Salazar gets good movement down in the zone on his fastball, inducing lots of groundballs and strikeouts. His fastball ranges from 92-96, and can touch 99 mph. Salazar rounds out his arsenal with a power slider and a change-up that has shown much improvement this season. Adding an effective change-up has made Salazar much tougher on left-handed hitters. He started the year at Double-A Akron, putting up stellar skills and a 2.67 ERA. Salazar has 22 K’s and just five walks issued over 18 innings in his three starts since being called up. An elite 0.96 WHIP also makes him appealing. This kid can pitch and has all the tools and talent to be a mainstay in the Indians rotation for a long time. Taking back a tag against the Angels, his appeal is even more attractive.
Stephen Nover
LA Dodgers -115
This isn't a fade on Jose Fernandez. But the Dodgers are such a superior team and have their own hot pitcher, lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, that this short price gets me into play.
The Dodgers had their 10-game winning streak end on Sunday. Hanley Ramirez committed a pair of ninth-inning errors in the loss. Ramirez would very much like to atone against his former team.
The Dodgers have won 19 of their last 21 away matchups. The Marlins are 4-10 in their last 14 overall games. The Marlins don't have a powerful offense to begin with, but it's even worse against lefties.
The Dodgers have won 77 percent of Ryu's starts, including the last nine. In his past four outings, Ryu has yielded 21 hits and two walks in 23 innings. He's given up just four runs during this span.
Ryu faced the Marlins once before back on May 11 and held them to one run on five hits in 6 2/3 innings.
Fernandez has great home numbers, but I'm not going to pass on the Dodgers at this short price.
Teddy Covers
Tampa Bay vs. Baltimore
Pick: Over
My clients and I cashed a winner yesterday with the Orioles Over the total, bailed out when Colorado’s bullpen imploded in the latter stages of the game. But that’s what Baltimore’s lineup is capable of doing at any point in a ballgame; leading MLB in home runs and ranked #4 overall in runs scored.
No surprise here if Baltimore’s offense gets their fair share against Tampa’s David Price and the mediocre bullpen behind him. Price got lit up for five runs in six innings in his lone previous start against the Orioles this year. He threw 117 pitches in his last start against Seattle, and in two previous starts this year following 110+ pitch efforts, Price has been lit up both times: 15 hits and 13 runs allowed in just nine innings of work.
Chris Tillman has been throwing too many pitches as well, seven straight starts with 102+, including three 112+ pitch efforts in his five starts since the All Star break. Tillman has a poor track record against Tampa over the course of his career, including a mediocre (at best) 4.76 ERA in three previous starts against the Rays this year. Expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight!