Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday August, 20

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

When the Indians open a three-game visit with the Mariners in Seattle Monday evening the Tribe will send the unsteady serves of Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound against Kevin Millwood. Not only does Jimenez own a road ERA (7.54) this season that is more than four runs a game worse than his home ERA (3.39), the rangy righty is 0-8 in his last eight away team starts during the month of August. With Millwood in sharp KW form with 14 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts, and also 3-0 in his last three August home team starts, look for the Tribe to get scalped as the M's extend their win streak to six straight here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Seattle.

Scott Spreitzer

Reds at Phillies
Play: Under

Mike Leake has been strong on the road, posting a 3.13 ERA & 1.19 WHIP in his last 10 starts away from Great American Ballpark. He'll face a Phillies' team that plates just 4 rpg at home against righthanders in 2012. The Phils will counter with red-hot Roy Halladay. The Philly righty has allowed just 7 earned runs and 20 base runners in his last four starts, spanning 28 innings. Halladay has 27 K's, while allowing just 3 walks in those four starts. Add in his great career numbers against the Reds and I believe we're in for a lower scoring contest than expected. I'm playing the Under between the Reds & Phillies on Monday night.

Hollywood Sports

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots

Head coaching empirical trends can be a very valuable resource in handicapping preseason football since these metrics may reveal how different coaches utilize exhibition contests. Andy Reid and Bill Belichick have vastly different track records in the preseason. New England (1-0) has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home preseason games in the Belichik era. Philadelphia (1-0), on the other hand, has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 preseason games under Reid with the point spread in the +/- 3-point range. The Eagles enter this game after a 24-23 win over Pittsburgh where rookie quarterback Nick Foles impressed by completing 6 of 10 passes for 140 yards. The former Arizona signal caller will be given plenty of snaps in this contest -- but look for him to not enjoy as much success now playing in his first road game. The Patriots' offense did little in their 7-6 victory over New Orleans last week. With ten days of practice since that contest, look for the New England offense to be much closer to regular season form here. Take New England minus the points in this one.

Rob Vinciletti

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies fit a nice system here that has cashed 9 of 11 times and plays on home favorites off a road dog win by 5 or more runs, vs an opponent like the Reds that are off a home favored win at -140 or higher in their last game. Free plays are 17-2 all posted right here. Tonight we note that the Phillies are 16-4 at home vs the Reds and have Halladay on the mound. Halladay has the fire power to stymie the Reds here tonight. Halladay has won his last two August home starts allowing just 1 run in 15 innings. He has also won 3 of his 4 home starts vs the Reds. Leake goes for Cincinnati tonight and Leake has lost 4 of his last 5 August road starts. Look for the Phillies to take game one of the series tonight.

Dave Cokin

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals
Pick: Washington Nationals

Tim Hudson has been winning, but not all that impressively on the graphs. I give Jordan Zimmermann and the Nationals the nod tonight to get past the Braves.

Jim Feist

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

What a difference a year makes for the Milwaukee Brewers. This time last year the Brew Crew was eyeing the playoffs. Now, they are 19 games back of the Reds and pretty much looking forward to their vacations. The Chicago Cubs, well, same as last year, just another horrible season. The Cubs are 26 games back of the Reds in the NL Central. Mark Rogers will look for his first major league victory as he starts tonight for the Brewers. And even though the Brewers have a horrible road record of 19-38, they have won eight of their last 10 at Miller Park. The Brewers have beaten Chicago four of six at Miller Park, scoring 28 runs in the four wins. Justin Germano will oppose for the Cubs. Germano has been good for the Cubs with a 2-2 mark and 3.19 ERA. But the Brewers are still a decent home club and I expect the rookie to get his first win tonight. Take the Brewers.

JR O'Donnell

Seattle Mariners -110

K Millwood - 110 and these 57-64 Seattle M's get the Monday Afr Members "late" Call from the J Oster..Mariners rocking the home field... 5-0 last 5 & 12-1 @ Safeco and a 2.08 ERA & the vistors are batting .199 .... nice..... Tribes U Jimenez is 1-5 with an 8.83 ERA over his 7 times to the rubber.

SPORTS WAGERS

Kansas City +167 over TAMPA BAY

We don’t apply the “returning home from a trip” angle to baseball like we do in the NHL and NBA because it’s not unusual for teams to travel for extended periods of time. This could be the exception as Tampa just completed a 10-game, three city road trip by embarrassing the Angels in Anaheim. The sweep of the Halos included a comeback from 8-0 on Saturday while outscoring their opponent 37-14. It took the Rays 19 games to score their previous 37 runs. Tampa will now trek home, where they’re hitting just .214 and sit just five games above .500.

The Rays will send out the weakest link in their great rotation. Jeremy Hellickson continues to outperform his skills. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is very average at 41%/21%/38%. Against lefties, it’s worsens with a fly-ball bias profile. Hellickson has walked 47 while striking out just 80 in 127 frames. You apply those numbers to a pitcher’s statistics and rarely will you come up with an ERA of 3.39, which is Hellickson’s current ERA. His xERA is 4.57 and it’s all because he has an unusually high strand rate of 83%.

The Royals have won 13 of their past 19 games. Will Smith struggled when be called up to the bigs with a 7.97 ERA in his first four starts but something clicked and the ensuing five starts produced a respectable 3.30 ERA. Smith has a nice 45% groundball rate. He gets ahead of hitters consistently with a reliable 87-93 mph fastball that he locates on both sides of the plate. He’ll drop in a quality curveball for strikes as well. Smith is getting comfortable at this level and he’s coming off back-to-back wins over two other very warm teams in Oakland and Baltimore. The Rays’ stock is off the charts after that weekend sweep, making them very overvalued for this opener with a very beatable Hellickson going.

Sean Murphy

San Francisco vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: LA Dodgers

To no one's surprise, Murph is lighting it up in the NFL preseason, enjoying a 7-3 (70%) run on guarantees, not to mention a PERFECT 6-0 totals run! He'll put both of those records to the test on Monday, as he releases a 10* TOP RATED total featuring the Eagles vs. Patriots; don't miss out!

The Dodgers overtook the Giants for top spot in the N.L. West over the weekend, and I don't expect them to give up the division lead that easy as they welcome their chief rival to town on Monday night.

San Francisco enjoyed a nice 5-1 surge at the start of August, but has since cooled off again, going an even 5-5 over its last 10 games. Oddly enough, it's been the Giants pitching that has let them down lately, with their staff recording a 5.11 ERA over their last 10 contests.

By contrast, the Dodgers have gone on a bit of a tear, winning eight of their last 11 games, and they've done it thanks to a pitching staff that has posted an ERA just north of three over that stretch. There's no comparison between the two bullpens right now, as the Giants relief corps has recorded an ugly 6.04 ERA over their last five games, while the Dodgers 'pen has posted a 2.92 ERA over the same period.

Madison Bumgarner will get the nod for the Giants on Monday. I've been a big supporter of Bumgarner over the last couple of years, and he continues to get it done here in 2012, having gone 13-7 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. However, he's had a tough time finding the win column on the road lately, and the Giants are just 6-7 when he takes the ball away from AT&T Park this season. He's given up just six earned runs over his last three road outings, spanning 19 innings pitched, yet San Francisco has dropped two of those three games. Bumgarner hasn't faced the Dodgers this season, but his last trip to Dodger Stadium was an ugly one, as he gave up nine hits and four earned runs in only four innings in an 8-2 loss last September.

The Dodgers will counter with their ace, Clayton Kershaw. He's clearly in top form entering tonight's start, having given up only six earned runs on 17 hits over his last four starts, covering a span of 30 1/3 innings of work. Over that stretch, he's struck out 29 while walking only four. Kershaw has been outstanding here at home this season, going 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He's faced the Giants three times already this season, and has enjoyed plenty of success, holding them to 18 hits and four earned runs, while posting a 22:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 23 innings pitched. Still, the Dodgers have dropped two of those three games, so Kershaw will obviously be looking for some revenge here.

The Dodgers swept the Giants in a three-game series in San Francisco at the tail-end of July, and I still believe they have the upper hand as we head into late August. With their ace on the mound, I look for the Dodgers to make a statement on Monday. I don't like to lay this steep of a price too often, but in this case, I'll make an exception.

Stephen Nover

Baltimore +160

ntil Ryan Dempster proves he can pitch effectively in the American League, the Rangers are a fade whenever he takes the mound.

Dempster has made three starts for Texas since coming from the Cubs. He's given up 19 earned runs in those three games on 24 hits, five homers and six walks in 17 1/3 innings.

The Orioles are playing well with 11 wins in their last 15 games. They enter this matchup with a lot of confidence having come from five runs down to beat Doug Fister, a good pitcher, and Detroit on Sunday. The Orioles also draw the Rangers returning to Arlington from a seven-game road trip. The first game back from a long trip usually can be tough mentally for a team.

Miquel Gonzalez gets the start for Baltimore. He's 5-2 with a 3.38 ERA and is in excellent form going 3-0 with a 2.28 during his past four starts.

Jack Jones

Washington Nationals -135

The Washington Nationals should be a much bigger favorite at home tonight against the Atlanta Braves. All they do is keep winning to prove they are one of the best teams in baseball. At 75-46, it's hard to argue.

Jordan Zimmerman is certainly one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander is 9-7 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 24 starts this season. Zimmerman is also 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.072 WHIP in four career starts against Atlanta.

The Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Nationals are 22-7 in their last 29 overall. Washington is 5-0 in Zimmermann's last 5 starts as a favorite. Bet the Nationals Monday.

MLB Predictions

Seattle Mariners -114
Indians / Mariners Over 7.5

The Indians continue to lose ball games, as they've lost 5 straight heading into tonight which drops their season record to 54-67 and a bad 24-38 on the road. The Mariners on the other hand have won 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 to improve their record to 58-64 on the season and 30-30 at home. Tonight we will see Ubaldo Jimenez take the mound for Cleveland he is just 9-12 on the season with a 5.62 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and .271 opponents batting average. After a pretty solid start against Boston Jimenez went right backt o struggling as he allowed 8 hits and 8 earned runs over just 4 innings of work in Los Angeles. Since the All Star break he is just 1-5 with a 8.83 ERA over 7 starts. Kevin Millwood will be on the rubber for Seattle and he is 4-10 on the season with a 4.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and .275 opponents batting average. In his last outing he went 7 innings giving up just 2 earned runs against the Tampa Bay Rays while striking out 8 and walking just 1. Take note that the Indians are just 17-35 in their last 52 overall, 7-19 in their last 26 games as an underdog, and just 18-41 in their last 59 games as a road underdog. The Indians are also just 2-5 in Jimenez's last 7 starts, and 0-6 in his last 6 road starts. The Mariners are 15-3 in their last 18 games as a favorite, and 13-3 in their last 16 home games. They are also 7-0 in their last 7 as a home favorite of -110 to -150, and 8-0 in their last 8 vs a team with a losing record. Take note that the OVER is 6-1 in Cleveland's last 7, and 7-2 in Jimenez's last 9 starts with a low total between 7 and 8.5. The OVER is also 7-2 in these two teams last 9 meetings. I like the line on both Seattle to win tonight vs a struggling Ubaldo Jimenez, and the low total with two pitchers that have their struggles. Take Seattle and the OVER with confidence, and lets have a 2-0 night.

SPORTS WAGERS

Cleveland +104 over SEATTLE

The Mariners are warm again with five consecutive wins and that provides us with another sell high opportunity on them. The M’s are only 28-30 at their home park because their offense is terrible there, where they have AL lows .588 team OPS and .214 BA.

Seattle at home with Kevin Millwood starting is one of the most unappealing combinations in the game, especially when spotting a tag. The M’s have lost eight of Millwood’s last 10 starts. Millwood has a BAA of .275 and a home ERA of 4.24, which is right in line with his xERA at home of 4.21. His strikeout rate is below average, as are most of his other skills. It’s no mystery why this 37-year-old no longer draw attention to himself. He trots out every five days and the Mariners usually lose when he does.

By almost all measurements, Ubaldo Jimenez has had a poor season but one of the bright spots was an absolute gem versus Seattle at home in May. He now gets the Mariners in Seattle, an excellent opportunity to follow up with another quality start. Much of Jiminez’s troubles this year are the result of walking batters. He has free passed 79 batters so far and with a low strand rate of 68%, many of those gents have crossed the plate. However, Jiminez has walked just three while striking out 14 over his last two starts, against two disciplined hitting teams in the Angels and Red Sox. The guy has terrific talent but has lost his way a bit in his first go-around in the American League. He’s coming around now and remains a solid buy-low target in winnable games like this one.

Frank Jordan

New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: New York Yankees

The Yankees are coming off a nice weekend series win over the Red Sox as they beat them two out of three and now head to Chicago to take on the other Sox. The Yankees have the top record in the AL and are playing well on the road eight games over .500. Chicago is in first place in the AL Central and have a two game in the loss column lead over Detroit. Chicago had a rough weekend as they have lost each of their lost three and things don't look any easier with the Yankees coming in. Look for Garcia to beat his former team as he continues to pitch well. Play NY Yankees