Teddy Covers
Chicago vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Over
The Brewers lineup is hot right now. Don’t be fooled by yesterday’s shutout loss, when both Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart got the day off to rest. Even against one of the hottest pitchers in the majors, Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels, the Brewers enjoyed some offensive success on Saturday. Prior to that, Milwaukee had scored five runs or more in each of their last seven ballgames, flying Over the total six times during that span.
Chicago, too, has been hitting the ball well of late, averaging five runs per game in their last two series against the Reds and Astros. No surprise, then, that we’ve seen the Cubs go 7-0 to the Over during the course of the last week.
Neither starter here is trustworthy. Chicago’s Justin Germano has only one quality start in four tries with the team, while the Brewers Mark Rogers is still looking for his first big league win in his seventh start for Milwaukee over the past two years. And both bullpens rank among the bottom five in all of baseball, giving us a prime opportunity to cash this Over late if we don’t get there early! Take the Over.
Greg Shaker
KC Royals +160
Amazing series for the Rays beating the Angels 4 straight times but celebrating such a feat often in the kiss of death in the next series, especially when that series starts halfway across the World. Ok, maybe not across the World but a pretty darn good ways. Fatigue likely to be a factor and although we don't know yet if they will have some resters, there is a good chance that they will. Hellickson has pitched in very good luck this year, still maintains a whip of 1.30 and much worse than that of late. K/BB Ratio even worse and ground ball ratio just average. The Royals have won 13 of 19, Smith has thrown in lot's of bad luck and is very good with GB Ratio and getting ahead of the hitters. Most of all, it is just a good situation tonight for KC and they are enjoying the way they are playing. My Model shows a virtual split here with a TB win at 50.6% of the time and with this Large +160 Dog, the Royals are worth a shot.
Jeff Alexander
NY Yankees -109
The Yankees have won 9 of 12, and I expect them to keep rolling against a Chicago club that was swept in Kansas City over the weekend. The Yanks have won 8 of their last 10 versus the White Sox and 6 straight in Chicago. Also, New York's Freddy Garcia enters in top form. He's 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA over his last 3 starts. It's also significant that the White Sox are 0-4 in Gavin Floyd's last 4 starts as an underdog. Bet the Yankees on the money line.
Dave Price
Texas Rangers -167
After 7 straight on the road, the Rangers will be happy to see their home field where they are 49-24 in their last 73. They are 68-33 in their last 101 games as a home favorite and 10-3 in their last 13 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Rangers have also won 8 of their last 9 against Baltimore. Bet Texas.
Jimmy Boyd
Philadelphia Phillies -143
The Phillies have won 15 of their last 18 versus Cincinnati, including 9 of 10 at home during this span. Expect them to continue their domination of the Reds with Roy Halladay on the hill. The Phillies are 4-0 in Halladay's last 4 starts vs. the Reds, and he has given up no runs in 3 of those wins. It is also worth noting that the Phillies are 26-10 in Halladay's last 36 home starts. The Reds, meanwhile, are 0-3 in Mike Leake's 3 career starts versus the Phillies. He has allowed at least 4 runs in each of those outings. Take Philly.
Chuck O'Brien
Most places I looked I couldn't find out who was pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates in their series-opener with the San Diego Padres, but as it turns out, there's a good chance we're going to see left-hander Justin Wilson against the Padres' Edinson Volquez. And what's strange to me it was reported last week the Pirates were converting the Triple-A hurler into a reliever to help the team contend down the stretch.
But with Wandy Rodriguez winless in three starts since the Pirates acquired him from the Houston Astros for three prospects on July 24, it looks as if he's sitting this one out.
Whether or not it's Wilson, I think the fact there's a question and last-minute change is a problem for a team that has lost seven of 11 and will be playing their 18th straight game in as many days.
Ask me and I think it's a great spot for Volquez, who has struggled in his last three starts, allowing 16 runs in 8-2/3 innings. But with his mechanics reportedly coming around, and him boasting a 3.24 ERA at home, he has a good chance to shine against a weary Pirates team that arrived late last night from St. Louis.
Let's play the Padres here.
2♦ SAN DIEGO
Craig Davis
Your Monday free play, fresh of the Colts last night is the Seattle Mariners.
I am on a 62-41 free play run.
I'm just curious if anyone knows what happened to Ubaldo Jimenez over the past two seasons? Wasn't he just flat dominant two seasons ago when he was pitching for the Rockies?
Ubaldo Jimenez (9-12, 5.62), was hit hard (surprise surprise) his last time out, allowing eight runs on eight hits (including two dingers) in just four innings of work in a 9-6 loss to the Angels. What's more... he's 1-5 with an 8.83 ERA over his last seven starts. Yikes.
The Mariners, on the other hand, have put together a rather impressive stretch of games at home over the past 30 days, and welcoming Cleveland should keep it going. Seattle has now won 6 straight at home and 12 of their last 13.
Seattle is getting contributions from everyone... and this was supposed to be another rebuilding year... especially after they waived the white flag by trading Ichiro to the Yankees. But guys like Michael Saunders and Eric Thames have been providing a lot of offensive power while pitchers like Blake Beavan and Jason Vargas have been giving the bullpen much needed rest.
The Mariners have quietly moved to just six games under .500 (58-64) by pitching better than they have in years... the staff ERA is a sizzling 2.08 while holding opponents to a .200 batting average.
Seattle's winning streak against teams from the AL Central is now at eight games... and now they get to face a Cleveland team that has lost five straight and 18 of their last 22. Ouch.
Free play of the day on the Seattle Mariners over Cleveland.
4♦ SEATTLE
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is for the Over to come through in the Baltimore-Texas contest tonight in Arlington.
Miguel Gonzalez has been on-fire for the O's, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA over his last three starts, but I get the feeling that the big bats of Texas will be able to do some damage back at home tonight. The bats probably will have to, as newly-acquired Ryan Demspter has had his issues since coming over the the American League, as he has been lit up in two of his three Texas starts.
Dempster is 1-1 with an over eight ERA since joining his new team, and his is facing a Baltimore lineup that has been able to secure the Over in three of their last four games overall.
These teams played four games in May at Camden Yards, and ALL four wound up going Over the total. The teams have now played Overs in five in a row, and seven of their last nine meetings since last season.
Take the Over tonight in the series opener.
4♦ BALTIMORE-TEXAS OVER
Matt Rivers
Monday night's free play winner will be the Yankees over the White Sox.
New York comes into this game having won 9 of their last 12 games overall, and they have also won their last 6 visits to US Cellular Field, outscoring the White Sox 48-21 in those 6 wins.
Chicago still is in charge in the A.L. Central, but the Sox just suffered a three game sweep in Kansas City over the weekend, and were only able to come up with 8 runs in those 3 losses.
Freddy Garcia has won each of his last 3 starts, while sporting a 3.06 ERA in those 3 wins. He will go against Gavin Floyd who has allowed 11 runs to score over his last 18-plus innings pitched.
Floyd is making his second start of the year against the Yankees, and the Yanks did hang the loss on Floyd back in early July, as Floyd allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in just over 5 innings of work.
Yankees to extend their series winning streak in the Windy City to 7 in a row with the win tonight.
4♦ N.Y.YANKEES
Dom Chambers
The Giants fell short for my free pick on Sunday, but I have been on a good run. I have gone 28-12 for my free picks.
Let’s add to that total today.
My free pick is on the New York Mets on the run line to beat the Colorado Rockies.
With the Mets, R.A. Dickey makes the start. He has been very tough at home, going 7-1 with a 2.46 ERA.
The Mets have been floundering lately, but with Dickey on the mound, they should have an opportunity for the win.
For the Rockies, Alex White starts, he is 2-6 with a 5.74 ERA. On the road, he has struggled, going 1-3 with a 6.97 ERA.
The Mets have the pitching edge here.
Take the Mets on the run line.
2♦ METS -1.5
WUNDERDOG
Game: Pittsburgh at San Diego
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +105
The Pittsburgh Pirates are off of the longest game of the year this season as they survived to win a 19 inning marathon at St. Louis yesterday. This might be a tough spot for the Pirates had they lost, but the fact that they won, and are still fighting for a playoff spot, bodes well for them here tonight vs. the lowly Padres. San Diego is 1-5 in their last six games, with four of the six showing an offensive output of 1 run or less. They face a struggling Edinson Volquez in this one. Volquez has lasted a grand total of 13.2 innings in his last four starts yielding 21 earned runs for an ERA of 13.83. The Pirates are in contention because they win the games they are supposed to win now at 31-13 in their last 44 vs. losing teams. The Padres on the otherside of things have not had much success at all vs. winning teams at just 22-47 in their last 69. Play on Pittsburgh.