Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, August 22,2011

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

When the Cubs send Ryan Dempster to the hill against Jair Jurrjens and the Braves Monday evening Chicago will do so knowing Dempster's home ERA (3.71) is more than two runs per game better than his road ERA (5.85) this season. In addition, Dempster has cashed in of his last 11 team starts during the month of August. On the flip side, Jurrjens sports a 1-3 mark with an 8.18 ERA in his last four teams starts during August. With that, look for Chicago to come up winners for the ninth time in Dempster's last 11 home starts here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Cubs.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers

The Rangers have done very well vs. the Red Sox of late, going 16-6 in head to head play, including 10-2 here in Arlington. These teams opened the season against one another and Texas swept Boston, outscoring them 26-11 over the course of three games. Rangers lefty CJ Wilson has dominated the Sox in four starts against them with a 4-0 TSR & 1.35 ERA. Wilson has also been hot of late with a 1.83 ERA & he's got a 12-1 TSR as a home favorite of -125 to -175! Boston's Erik Bedard has not beaten Texas the last seven times he's faced them and the Rangers average a healthy six runs per game here at home.

Play on: Texas

Matt Fargo

Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Detroit Tigers

Detroit is riding a three-game winning streak thanks to a weekend sweep over the Indians to increase its lead in the American League Central to 4.5 games. The Tigers now hit the road and open with ace Justin Verlander who is coming off another outstanding start, allowing just one run in 7.2 innings against the Twins. That made it four consecutive quality starts thrown and on the season, 12 of his 13 starts on the road have resulted in quality outings. This is a revenge game as he looks to bounce back from his worst start of the season when he allowed six runs in six innings back in May against the Rays. Jeff Niemann has also been pitching extremely solid as he has put together back-to-back quality outings as well as seven of his last eight being quality performances. He is coming off a complete game at Boston against the Red Sox which improved his record to 5-1 on the road to go along with a 2.64 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He has not been as strong at home as those numbers increase to 3.91 and 1.32 respectively and the Rays are just 4-4 in his eight home starts. The Rays are 0-5 in his last five starts as a home underdog. 3* Detroit Tigers

Rob Vinciletti

Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland applies to a nice 80% system here tonight that is simple as syrup. We want to play on home teams if both teams are off road losses and still managed to score 5 or more runs. Both teams are off 8-7 road losses on Sunday. Tonight Cleveland looks to be the right side as they have won all four meetings this season with Seattle. The Mariners are 7-25 vs winning teams in the second half and 4-11 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5. The Indians have the pitching edge too as Carmona has a 2.49 era over his past 3 starts and a 2.55 era vs Seattle. Vargas goes for Seattle and he has a 5.82 era in his last 3 starts and a 10.05 era vs the Indians. Look for the Indians to take Game one tonight.

BIG AL

Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Atlanta Braves

When Atlanta righthander Jair Jurrjens went on the DL in early August for a knee injury, he probably took himself out of contention for the N.L. Cy Young award for this year despite the fact that even with two losses in two sub-par starts in August - one right before he went on the shelf and the other after he came back - Jurrjens is still 12-5 with a 2.84 ERA on the season. Jurrjens will get his second start since returning from injury, and instead of facing the defending World Series Champs as he did in his last start last Wednesday, Jurrjens will go to Wrigley Field to face the Cubs and righthander Ryan Dempster. While Jurrjens doesn't have much of a history against Chicago (0-1 with a 3.50 ERA in 18 innings), Dempster has a extensive game log vs. the Braves and unfortunately for the Cubs it is not good. The veteran who is in his 8th season in Chicago is just 2-11 with a 4.76 ERA in 28 appearances - 17 starts - vs. the Braves. Take Atlanta.

Jim Feist

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers
Pick: Texas Rangers

The Boston Red Sox are fighting it out for first place in the AL East, now trailing the Yankees by a half game. It's pretty obvious though that whichever team ends up in second place is going to get the AL Wildcard. Boston holds a 7 1/2 game lead over Tampa Bay as of Sunday. Meanwhile, the Rangers have opened up a four-game lead in the AL West over the Angles, though the Angels have shaved two games off that lead the last two days. With time growing short in the regular season, each game means a lot to these teams but especially the Rangers who need to win the division. 32-year old Erik Bedard makes his fourth start for the Red Sox tonight and is still looking for his first win for his new team. Bedard has pitched well enough, allowing six earned runs in 16 innings. However, he hasn't received a lot of runs support with four runs being the most he's gotten in three outings. C.J Wilson is having a fine season for the Rangers, with a 12-5 mark and 3.20 ERA. Wilson is coming off two great outings where he is 2-0 while allowing just two earned runs over 13 innings while striking out 13 and walking just four. Wilson has a 2.13 ERA in August which is a fine rebound from his 4.14 ERA in July. The Rangers know the Angels are not dead in the division, so don't look for them to let up. I'm taking the Rangers here tonight with Wilson pitching great and Bedard finding runs support at a premium.

EZWINNERS

St. Louis Cardinals -190

The Cardinals send their ace pitcher Chris Carpenter to the mound for this start against the Dodgers. Carpenter is only 8-8 this season, but after a slow start he has really been pitching well. Carpenter is 7-1 in his eleven starts since June 23rd and he has owned the Dodgers in his career. Carpenter has a career 6-0 record with a 1.57 ERA against Los Angeles and I look for him to improve on that record in this game. The Dodgers will start rookie pitcher Nathan Eovaldi in this game. Eovaldi has had three very good starts for LA, but I don't expect him to receive much run support in this game. The Dodgers are just 1-9 in their last ten games as a road underdog and I don't look for them to improve on that record in this game. Play on St. Louis.

SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINTON +106 over Arizona

The saying goes, “The cream always rises to the top” and if that’s true than something has to sink. The Pirates were the first to sink and now it’s the D-Backs turn, though to a lesser extent. Arizona has two rock-solid starters in Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy. After that it gets shaky as hell. The offense has been overachieving for 4½ months and now what we’re seeing is the real D-Backs, which is about as mediocre a club as the Pirates or Mets or any other mediocre club. ARI's offense is hitting closer to form now. They had a league-low .193 BA, .259 OBA, .294 SLG and .553 OPS in the seven games before Sunday, when they went 5-for-29 with 10 K's in a shutout loss to the Braves. Justin Upton (.278) and Paul Goldschmidt (.269) are the only regulars batting over .260 for ARI this month and now the pressure heightens. Enter Joe Saunders. Saunders was among the best pitchers in the NL last month, posting a 4-1 record and 2.16 ERA. Saunders's skills (skills refer to (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line/fly ratios (G/L/F) hit%, strand % and expected ERA (xERA) show he's the same pitcher of years past, just luckier. Saunders is walking more hitters this year and striking out fewer. He's benefiting from a high strand rate, meaning the extra walks haven't hurt him as much. Take care not to read too much into Saunders' success. While he's delivering his best season since 2008, it's been heavily influenced by luck. At his core, Saunders is the same innings eater with a poor K rate that he was before. The D-Backs luck has run out and so has Saunders in his last two starts, as he’s allowed five earned runs in both and he’s not likely to do much better here. Play: Washington +106 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO +118 over Atlanta

The Braves activated Jair Jurrjens from the DL and he got the start Wednesday against San Francisco. He had been out since August 2 with a knee strain. Jurrjens began the season with an outstanding 2.07 ERA in the first half and he appears to have been struggling a bit with a 4.03 ERA since July 1. While it's true that Jurrjens has not duplicated his first half ERA, his xERA said that a correction was coming. His second half performance has been precisely in line with expectations. His skills have actually been a tad stronger in the second half, with the only difference being an expected correction in his hr/f rate. Still, it’s hard to overlook that Jurrjens has been whacked in two consecutive starts by both the Nationals and Giants. Getting whacked by that pair is not easy. Jurrjens had one strikeout in each game and that suggests something is not right with him. Chicago boasts the league's top offense in BA, SLG and OPS in August. Ryan Dempster is outpitching Jurrjens by a large margin since the All-Star break. Dempster is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his past three starts and he’s struck out 18 in 20 IP. The Cubbies have won three of his past four starts and seven of his last 10 and there’s no reason he can’t win this one too. Pay very little attention to Dempsters 2-11 career record vs the Braves, as he’s pitched well against them with a xERA of 3.34 and it’s been mostly bad luck. Play: Chicago +118 (Risking 2 units).

Tom Freese

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Atlanta Braves

The Braves come in off a sweep of Arizona and are poised to stay host as they play the Cubs. Atlanta is 9-2 this season in road games when they are off a one run win and they have Jair Jurrjens pitching tonight. Pitching continues to be the Braves' strong suit as they have given up just three runs total the last four games w/ a pair of shutouts. They have won 13 of 17 overall. Cubs starter Ryan Dempster is 2-11 vs. Atlanta and Chicago has lost two of three each of the last two series at Wrigley vs. Atlanta.

Freddy Wills

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins

Carl Pavano has had an up and down year much like the Twins who really have fallen apart at home where they used to dominate. Pavano has benefited from pitching at home where he carries a 3.08 ERA and that is where he pitches tonight against the Orioles and he's been hot with a 2.01 ERA over his last 3 starts and now he faces an Orioles team that has not won a series in the AL since June 6th. Orioles are 18-42 on the road and I think the Twins will have the advantage with Pavano having a little revenge in his back pocket after giving up 7 ER in his last start in Baltimore. Before that Pavano was 5-3 in 9 starts vs. the Orioles posting a 2.75 ERA. Again he's at home and now the Orioles who are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. the Twins. Zach Britton may not be 100% after coming off the DL and Britton has a 4.42 WHIP not ERA in his last 3 starts with a 24.16 ERA. Britton has not looked good since returning and the Twins hit lefties a bit better than righties as they are 21st in OPS rather than their 28th rank vs. RHP. Twins are 44-19 in their last 63 home favorites -110 to -150.

David Banks

Bears / Giants Under

Week 2 of the NFL preseason comes to a close Monday Night from the New Meadowlands in East Rutherford New Jersey where the New York Giants will host the Chicago Bears; ESPN’s Monday Night telecast is scheduled to go at 8:00 ET.

Chicago only lost five games last season en route to winning the NFC North Division. However, one of those defeats came right here in tonight’s venue where they were manhandled by the G-Men en route to falling by a 17-3 final count. Jake Cutler was thrown around like a rag doll before ultimately getting knocked out of the game with a concussion. When the dust cleared, Chicago QBs were thrown to the turf 10 times and the offense accumulated just 110 overall yards. Unfortunately, the same problems the Bears had on the O-Line a year ago reared their ugly head in last week’s 10-3 home win and cover (-2.5) over Buffalo, as the Bills accumulated a whopping nine sacks.

New York hasn’t been the best option to back in the preseason over the course of the last few seasons under the watchful eye of Tom Coughlin. With them falling 20-10 as 2.5 point underdogs last week at Carolina, the Giants now stand 4-5 SU & 3-5-1 ATS since the 2009 exhibition season. Though the team played error free football last week, the defensive effort was sloppy at best as it allowed one of the league’s worst offensive units from a year ago gain nearly 350 yards of combined offense. With them forced to deal with the potent offensive attacks of all their division rivals this season, you can bet your bottom dollar that NY will look to shore up its defensive deficiencies under tonight’s national spotlight.

These teams last met in the preseason back in 2009. The Bears won that game 17-3 as two-point home underdogs and the combined 20 points easily went ‘under’ the closing total of 34.5. Chicago has now played five preseason games in a row without surpassing the 17 point plateau; they’ve averaged a grand total of 11.2 PPG during that stretch. That said; New York has been a miserable home favorite of 3.5 points or more in the preseason managing just a 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS tally since 2003.

MLB Predictions

Milwaukee Brewers -112

The Brewers and Pirates are playing a double header today, so please make sure you are betting on Game #1. In the first of the two games we will see Chris Narveson return for the DL. Narveson had stitches on his hand in a little bit of a freak accident, and I don't expect it to affect him like it might a pitcher coming off a shoulder or arm injury. Narveson is 8-6 on the year with a 4.49 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .263 opponents batting average. Lifetime against the Pirates Narveson is 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA. On the rubber for Pittsburgh in this first game is Jeff Karstens, who is 9-6 on the year with a 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .255 opponents batting average. Karstens has yet to beat the Brewers in his career, with a 0-4 record and 4.03 ERA in 11 appearances against them. Also note the Pirates are 1-6 in Karsten's' last 7 starts vs the Brewers. The red hot Brewers have won 22 of their last 25 games, and are looking for an amazing 13 straight win over the Pirates. Milwaukee has beaten them 8 times this year, and their 12 game winning streak against Pittsburgh goes back to July 21st. Take note that the Brewers are a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series, 8-1 in their last 9 road games, and 35-17 in their last 52 overall. They are also 49-21 in their last 70 vs right-handed starters, 36-15 in their last 51 vs NL Central teams, and 13-3 in their last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Also note that they are 4-0 in Narveson's last 4 starts, 5-1 in his last 6 road starts, and 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs NL Central opponents. The Pirates who were recently in the hunt for playoffs are now just 8-22 in their last 30 overall, 3-10 in their last 13 home games, and 4-12 in their last 16 games following a loss. Head to head the Brewers are 42-10 in these two teams last 52 meetings, and 8-3 in their last 11 meetings in Pittsburgh. I don't expect the travel from New York to Pittsburgh for a little bit of an early start to affect the Brewers, who are on a tear and coming off a road sweep of the Mets. This is a team that is confident, and is showing no signs of slowing down. Showing up for the ballpark is a lot of fun for the Brewers right now, and I'm not sure we can say the same for the Pirates who have been on the losing end of a lot of games recently. Take the Brewers in Game #1 today of the double header at a generous price.

Steve Janus

Atlanta Braves -117

The Braves come into their series against the Cubs having won four straight and six of their last seven. The Cubs are coming off an impressive series win against the Cardinals, but last last night and will likely suffer a bit of a let down after that emotional series.

The Braves will send out Jair Jurrjens, who is 12-5 with a 2.84 ERA on the season and 5-3 with a 2.86 ERA on the road. Atlanta will counter with Ryan Dempster, who is 10-8 with a 4.61 ERA on the season. The reason I think Atlanta has such a big advantage tonight, is the fact that Dempster is just 2-9 with a 4.64 ERA in 17 career starts against the Cubs. Dempster is also just 2-8 in home games after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons.

The Braves are 14-5 in Jurrjens' last 19 starts following a team loss in his previous start, 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter, and 22-8 in their last 30 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -128

Detroit gets the call as our free play with ace Justin Verlander set to take the hill. The right-handed flame thrower is 18-5 with a 2.31 ERA in all starts this season, including 9-2 on the road with an ERA of 2.45. The Tigers have won each of his last 6 starts and 17 of his last 20. Verlander has also been strong against the Rays. He's 5-1 (8-1 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.88 in 9 career starts against them. We'll take the Tigers tonight.